Deep-pocketed investors have adopted a bearish approach towards Tempus AI (NASDAQ:TEM), and it's something market players shouldn't ignore. Our tracking of public options records at Benzinga unveiled this significant move today. The identity of these investors remains unknown, but such a substantial move in TEM usually suggests something big is about to happen.We gleaned this information from our observations today when Benzinga's options scanner highlighted 9 extraordinary options activities for Tempus AI. ...

Core Insights - Tempus AI's reimbursement showed modest sequential improvement in Q3 2025, but average blended reimbursement per test continues to lag behind peers significantly [2][11] - The company has structural catalysts that could help narrow the pricing gap over time [2] - Tempus exited Q3 with approximately one-third of xT CDx volume on FDA-approved or Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test (ADLT) pathways, with plans to submit the xF assay for FDA approval by the end of 2025 [3][11] - MRD reimbursement is progressing as planned and is expected to scale gradually, outlining a clear path to improving pricing and unit economics [4] Execution and Risks - While the strategic roadmap is clear, execution risk remains elevated due to dependence on regulatory review timelines, with near-term per-test economics below peer levels [5] - The magnitude and timing of ADLT-related pricing uplift will not be known until approvals are secured, which could defer expected pricing convergence and slow margin expansion [5] Peer Update - Doximity commands over 80% of U.S. physicians and 60% of NPs and PAs as members, creating a powerful network effect that enhances platform stickiness and advertising effectiveness [6] - Doximity has scaled into hiring solutions, workflow tools, and telehealth, addressing an $18.55 billion U.S. total addressable market (TAM) [7] - Illumina unveiled a strategic roadmap aimed at returning to growth, expecting high-single-digit revenue growth by 2027 and double-digit annual EPS growth over the next three years [8] Financial Performance - Tempus shares have rallied 84.8% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry, which saw a 1.5% decline [10] - Tempus currently trades at a forward 12-month Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 7.35X, compared to the industry average of 5.77X, indicating an expensive valuation [12] - The loss per share estimate for Tempus AI for 2025 has narrowed by 1 cent to 64 cents in the past 30 days [13]

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Group 1 - Tempus AI, Inc. (NASDAQ:TEM) is recognized as a leading healthcare AI stock, with JPMorgan lowering its price target from $85 to $80 while maintaining a Neutral rating [1][2] - TD Cowen has reiterated a Hold rating on Tempus AI with an unchanged price target of $88, expressing optimism about the company's potential in pharmaceutical research and development efficiency [2][3] - TD Cowen is expanding its coverage on Tempus AI, focusing on the company's data infrastructure and the application of its AI-driven solutions in the healthcare sector [3] Group 2 - Tempus AI specializes in AI-enabled precision medicine, utilizing clinical and molecular data to enhance patient outcomes through machine learning and genomic sequencing [4]

Core Insights - Tempus AI (TEM) is showing early signs of profitability with its first positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2025 and has raised its full-year revenue guidance [1][7] - The company is focusing on improving cost control and operating leverage as revenues scale, despite the Paige acquisition impacting near-term profitability [1][2] Financial Performance - Gross profit nearly doubled year-over-year in Q3 2025, driven by growth in Genomics and Data services [2][7] - Fourth-quarter 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to remain positive, supported by growth trends across business segments [2] - Despite positive Adjusted EBITDA, GAAP losses continue due to stock-based compensation and other non-cash items, limiting visibility into sustainable GAAP profitability [3][7] Peer Comparison - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) reported robust revenue growth nearing $600 million in Q3 2025 and achieved positive net income, reflecting a transition in profitability [4] - GoodRx Holdings, Inc. (GDRX) is maintaining stable revenues while shifting towards higher-margin solutions, focusing on margin durability amid evolving growth models [5] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Tempus' shares have increased by 81.4%, significantly outperforming the industry, which declined by 2.4% [6] - TEM currently trades at a forward Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 7.42X, higher than the industry average of 5.77X, indicating an expensive valuation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The October sell call on Tempus AI (TEM) has been effective, primarily due to valuation concerns and multiple compression driving the stock's decline since October [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The decline in Tempus AI's stock price has been attributed to multiple compression rather than fundamental issues [1]. - The focus on equity valuation and market trends is emphasized, indicating a strategic approach to identifying investment opportunities [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, highlighting a strong foundation in equity valuation and market analysis [1]. - The analyst's previous role as Vice President at Barclays involved leading teams in model validation and stress testing, showcasing expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis [1].

Core Insights - The article highlights the background and achievements of Brendan, a key figure in the biotechnology sector, emphasizing his academic credentials and professional experience in both pharmaceutical and biotech industries [1]. Group 1: Background and Education - Brendan completed a Ph.D. in organic synthesis at Stanford University in 2009 [1]. - He worked for Merck, a major pharmaceutical company, from 2009 to 2013 [1]. Group 2: Professional Experience - Brendan has experience in biotech, including roles in startups such as Theravance and Aspira before joining Caltech [1]. - He was the first employee and co-founder of 1200 Pharma, which spun out of Caltech and secured significant investment in the eight-figure range [1]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Brendan remains an avid investor, particularly focused on market trends and biotechnology stocks [1].

Core Insights - The health care sector has several oversold stocks that present potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Insmed Inc (NASDAQ:INSM) has an RSI value of 26.8, with a recent stock price of $198.46, and has experienced a 2% decline over the past month [7] - Tempus AI Inc (NASDAQ:TEM) also has an RSI value of 26.8, with shares closing at $64.62 after a 13% drop in the last five days [7] - Legend Biotech Corp (NASDAQ:LEGN) has the lowest RSI value at 19.1, with a stock price of $21.42, reflecting a 27% decrease over the past month [7]

Core Insights - The health care sector has several oversold stocks that present potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1] Group 1: Oversold Stocks - Insmed Inc (NASDAQ:INSM) has an RSI value of 26.8, with a recent stock price of $198.46, and has experienced a 2% decline over the past month [7] - Tempus AI Inc (NASDAQ:TEM) also has an RSI value of 26.8, with shares closing at $64.62 after a 13% drop in the last five days [7] - Legend Biotech Corp (NASDAQ:LEGN) has the lowest RSI value at 19.1, with a stock price of $21.42, reflecting a 27% decline over the past month [7]

Core Insights - Tempus AI (TEM) reported a non-GAAP profit in Q3 2025, driven by growth in genomics testing and data services, with revenue increasing by 84.7% year over year to $334.2 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.5 million [1][8] - The stock holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) with a VGM Score of D, indicating weaknesses in value but stronger momentum [1][13] Business Mix and Growth Drivers - Genomics revenue more than doubled to $252.9 million, with oncology testing contributing $139.5 million and hereditary testing $102.6 million [2] - Data and services revenue grew by 26.1%, with Insights increasing by 37.6%, and clinical tests delivered reached 217,000, up 33% year over year [2][3] Pricing Catalysts - Management is transitioning a significant portion of xT CDx volume to FDA-approved tracks and plans further FDA submissions, expecting to submit xT for approval by the end of 2025 [4] - These initiatives aim to enhance average selling prices and unit economics over time, although average realized pricing remains below peer levels until approvals are secured [5] Revenue Recognition and Demand - Strong customer demand for Data & Services is evident, with mid-20% booking growth year over year and approximately $150 million in new contracts [6] - However, the multi-year recognition of bookings may delay near-term revenue recognition and margin improvement [7] Profitability and Future Guidance - The company anticipates 2025 revenue of approximately $1.265 billion, implying around 80% annual growth and positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year [8] - Management expects about $20 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025, with continued EPS improvement projected through 2026 and potential positive EPS in 2027 [11] Financial Position - Tempus AI ended Q3 with $764.3 million in cash and marketable securities, providing the capacity for ongoing investments in AI compute and regulatory initiatives [12] Market Position and Performance Expectations - The stock's Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) and VGM Score of D suggest expectations for market-like performance in the near term, with a focus on estimate revisions related to pricing, FDA decisions, and reimbursement progress [13]