Group 1 - Tempus AI, Inc. has experienced a significant decline in stock price, down 50% from its recent highs [1] - The company operates in the AI precision medicine sector, indicating a focus on advanced healthcare solutions [1] Group 2 - Stone Fox Capital is an RIA based in Oklahoma, led by Mark Holder, who has extensive experience in investing and portfolio management [1] - The investing group Out Fox The Street provides stock picks, model portfolios, and real-time updates to assist investors in identifying potential multibaggers [1]

Core Insights - Tempus AI, Inc. reported a fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted loss of 4 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 16 cents in the same quarter last year, but wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 66.7% [1] - The company’s revenues for the fourth quarter reached $367.2 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.1% and reflecting an 83% year-over-year increase [2][7] - Full-year 2025 revenues totaled $1.27 billion, marking an 83.3% increase compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Breakdown - In the fourth quarter, Diagnostics generated revenues of $266.9 million, a significant 121.6% increase year-over-year, with Oncology volume growing by 29% and Hereditary volume by 23% [3] - The Data and Applications segment reported sales of $100.4 million, up 25.1% year-over-year, driven by a 69.5% growth in Insights (data licensing) [3] Margin and Operating Performance - Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $237.7 million, up 94.7% from the previous year, with an adjusted gross margin expanding by 391 basis points to 64.7% [4] - Total adjusted operating expenses were $259 million, an increase of 83.8% year-over-year, leading to an operating loss of $21.3 million compared to a loss of $18.8 million in the prior year [4] Liquidity Position - At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $604.8 million, up from $340.9 million at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024 [5] - Cumulative net cash used in investing activities was $398.3 million, compared to $130.4 million a year ago [5] Future Outlook - For full-year 2026, the company expects revenues to reach $1.59 billion, indicating nearly 25% annual growth, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at $1.56 billion [6][7] - Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 is projected to be $65 million [8] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, shares of Tempus AI declined by 3.7% in after-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over the reported quarterly operating loss [2]

Core Insights - Tempus AI, Inc. is a leader in AI-driven precision medicine, focusing on enhancing diagnostic and therapeutic solutions in oncology [1] Financial Performance - For Q4 2026, Tempus reported an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.31, below the estimated EPS of -$0.04, while revenue reached $367.2 million, exceeding the estimated $362.6 million, representing an 83% increase year-over-year with 33.5% organic growth excluding Ambry contributions [2] - The diagnostics segment generated $266.9 million in revenue, showing a 121.6% year-over-year growth driven by a 29% increase in oncology volume and a 23% rise in hereditary volume [3] - The Data and Applications segment contributed $100 million, up 25%, and the Insights segment experienced a robust 68% growth [3] Financial Challenges - Tempus has a negative price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of -41.21, indicating negative earnings, and an enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of approximately -25.61, highlighting challenges in generating positive cash flow [4] - The earnings yield is negative at -2.43%, further emphasizing financial difficulties [4] - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.66, indicating higher debt levels compared to equity, while the current ratio of 3.13 suggests a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities [5] - The company achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time in the previous quarter, amounting to $1.5 million, marking a significant milestone [5]

Group 1: Google - Google has gained significant attention in the market due to its TPU chips and Gemini AI model, showcasing a competitive edge in AI technology [1] - In the past year, Google has outperformed its peers with a 70% increase in stock price, while Nvidia saw a 47% increase, and other tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon experienced slight declines [2] - As of Q4 2025, over 5,000 institutions held Google stocks, with a notable increase of over 30% in holdings, making it the most significantly increased position among tech giants [4] - Prominent investment firms have increased their holdings in Google, with Baillie Gifford raising its position in Google-C by over 29% and ARK Invest increasing its stake by over 60% [5][6] Group 2: Pinduoduo - Pinduoduo's stock has dropped over 20% since its peak in November 2022, underperforming compared to competitors like Alibaba and JD.com [7] - Despite the decline, analysts view this as a potential buying opportunity, citing Pinduoduo's valuation discount and strong user value proposition [9] - In Q4 2025, several major Chinese investment firms, including H&H and Hillhouse, have increased their positions in Pinduoduo, indicating strong consensus among investors [9] Group 3: Tempus AI - Tempus AI has emerged as a key player in the AI healthcare sector, focusing on diagnostic and data-driven solutions, and has a market capitalization exceeding $10 billion [12] - The company reported over $900 million in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an 84% year-over-year growth, despite a net loss of $190 million [12] - In Q4 2025, ARK Invest and other institutions have increased their stakes in Tempus AI, with ARK becoming its fourth-largest shareholder [12][14]

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.76% to 49,174.50, the S&P 500 gaining 0.77% to 6,890.07, and the Nasdaq advancing 1.05% to 22,863.68 [1] Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) - AMD shares surged by 8.77%, closing at $213.84, with an intraday high of $216.71 and a low of $206.50, within a 52-week range of $76.48 to $267.08 [2] Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (ZETA) - Zeta Global's stock climbed 13.35% to $16.98, reaching an intraday peak of $16.99 and a low of $14.84, with a 52-week high of $24.90 and a low of $10.69 [3] - The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $394.64 million, up 25.41% from $314.67 million a year earlier, exceeding estimates of $379.23 million, marking its 18th consecutive beat-and-raise quarter [3] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre's stock increased by 3.12% to $1,922.56, with an intraday high of $1,928.96 and a low of $1,857.12, within a 52-week range of $1,723.90 to $2,645.22 [4] - The company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $11.03 per share, missing estimates of $11.59, while revenue rose to $8.76 billion from $6.06 billion a year earlier, surpassing expectations of $8.47 billion [5] - Operating income reached $889 million with a 10.1% margin, net income totaled $559 million with a 6.4% margin, total payment volume climbed 42.1% to $83.7 billion, and gross merchandise volume increased 36.8% to $19.9 billion [5] Tempus AI Inc. (TEM) - Tempus AI's stock rose by 1.15% to $57.95, with an intraday high of $58.76 and a low of $56.29, within a 52-week range of $36.22 to $104.32 [6] - The company reported a fourth-quarter loss of $0.04 per share, in line with estimates, while revenue rose to $367.21 million from $200.68 million a year earlier, exceeding expectations of $362.29 million [6] - Diagnostics revenue increased by 121.6% to $266.9 million [6] Workday - Workday's shares increased by 0.79% to $130.23, with an intraday high of $134.72 and a low of $126.62, within a 52-week range of $125.83 to $281 [7] - The company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $2.47 per share, beating estimates of $2.32, while revenue rose to $2.53 billion from $2.21 billion a year earlier, slightly above expectations of $2.52 billion [8] - Subscription backlog reached $8.83 billion on a 12-month basis, up 15.8%, with total backlog increasing 12.2% to $28.1 billion [8] Additional Insights - The company projected fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.75 billion to $1.76 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.72 billion, which positively impacted shares in extended trading [4] - Workday guided first-quarter revenue of $2.52 billion, below estimates of $2.53 billion, and projected fiscal 2027 revenue of $10.64 billion to $10.66 billion versus expectations of $10.72 billion, leading to a decline in shares during extended trading [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the core business increased by over 33% in 2025, with the acquisition of Ambry contributing to even higher growth [5] - Net revenue retention was reported at 126%, indicating strong customer loyalty and increased spending [7] - The company guided for $1.59 billion in revenue for 2026, aligning with long-term growth expectations of approximately 25% [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the diagnostics segment, oncology unit growth reached 29%, with a remarkable 56% quarter-over-quarter growth in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing [5][36] - The hereditary testing segment maintained a solid 23% unit growth [5] - The data business, particularly the licensing segment, saw a 69% increase in the quarter, with projections of around 40% growth for the upcoming quarter [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has established connections with over 5,500 hospitals and more than 8,500 oncologists, enhancing its market presence [12] - The total contract value for the data business exceeded $1.1 billion, indicating robust demand and growth potential [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its unique data advantages and AI capabilities to enhance diagnostic offerings and maintain a competitive edge in the healthcare sector [11][12] - The strategic focus includes expanding the comprehensive nature of its testing portfolio, particularly through the integration of hereditary and oncology testing [61] - The company plans to continue investing in technology and AI to drive growth and improve diagnostic accuracy [74] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory for 2026, citing strong demand for data products and a solid foundation for revenue growth [49] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in oncology diagnostics, with expectations of high teens growth in hereditary testing [30][56] - Management highlighted the importance of proprietary data in training AI models, which is expected to enhance the company's offerings and market position [11][12] Other Important Information - The company is in the process of developing a foundation model for AI, with expectations of significant advancements in diagnostic capabilities [28] - The average selling price (ASP) for tests was reported at approximately $1,640, with potential for significant increases in the coming years [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about AI and market competition - Management emphasized the unique position of the company due to its proprietary data and established relationships with healthcare providers, which are difficult for competitors to replicate [11][12] Question: Strategic value of Paige Predict and its impact - Management discussed the importance of contextualizing diagnostics and how new technologies like Paige Predict enhance the value of their offerings [17][19] Question: Update on foundation model development - Management confirmed that benchmarks for the foundation model have been met and that testing is ongoing, with expectations for significant value delivery [28] Question: Volume growth assumptions for 2026 - Management indicated that oncology growth is off to a strong start, with expectations of continued growth, while hereditary testing may see some moderation [30][56] Question: Insights on MRD testing and sales force effectiveness - Management highlighted the strong performance of MRD testing despite a constrained sales effort, indicating potential for significant growth once fully deployed [36][37] Question: ASP outlook and gross margin implications - Management noted that increases in ASP would likely lead to improved gross margins, while balancing the need for comprehensive testing panels [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the core business increased by over 33% in 2025, with the acquisition of Ambry contributing to even higher growth [5][7] - Net revenue retention was reported at 126%, indicating strong customer loyalty and increased spending [7] - The company guided for $1.59 billion in revenue for 2026, aligning with long-term growth expectations of approximately 25% [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The diagnostics business in oncology experienced a unit growth of 29%, with a remarkable 56% quarter-over-quarter growth in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing [5][36] - The hereditary testing segment maintained a unit growth of 23% [5] - The data licensing business, referred to as Insights, grew by 69% in the quarter, with projections of around 40% growth for the upcoming quarter [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has established connections with over 5,500 hospitals and more than 8,500 oncologists, enhancing its market presence [12] - The total contract value for the data business exceeded $1.1 billion, indicating robust demand and growth potential [6][49] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its unique data advantages and AI capabilities to enhance diagnostic offerings and maintain a competitive edge in the healthcare sector [11][12] - The strategic focus includes expanding the comprehensive nature of testing solutions to meet the evolving needs of healthcare providers [61] - The company plans to continue investing in technology and AI to drive growth across its diagnostics and data businesses [74] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory for 2026, citing strong demand for data products and a favorable market environment [49] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in oncology diagnostics, with expectations of high teens growth in hereditary testing [30][56] - Management highlighted the importance of proprietary data in training AI models, which is expected to enhance the company's offerings and market position [11][12] Other Important Information - The company is in the process of developing a foundation model for AI applications, with expectations of significant advancements in insights generation [28] - The average selling price (ASP) for tests was reported at approximately $1,640, with potential for increases driven by product mix changes and FDA approvals [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about AI and market competition - Management emphasized the unique position of the company due to its proprietary data and established relationships with healthcare providers, which are difficult for competitors to replicate [11][12] Question: Strategic value of Paige Predict and ASP expectations - Management discussed the benefits of Paige Predict in enhancing diagnostic capabilities and provided insights on ASP growth expectations, indicating a potential increase to over $2,200 [16][22] Question: Update on foundation model development - Management confirmed that benchmarks for the foundation model have been met and that testing is ongoing, with expectations for significant value delivery across various data types [28] Question: Volume growth assumptions for oncology and hereditary testing - Management indicated strong growth in oncology diagnostics and moderate growth in hereditary testing, with expectations of high teens growth rates [30][56] Question: Insights on MRD testing and sales force effectiveness - Management highlighted the strong performance of MRD testing despite a constrained sales effort, indicating potential for significant growth once fully deployed [35][37] Question: Sales organization adjustments and investment priorities - Management confirmed no major changes to the sales organization but reiterated a commitment to leveraging technology and AI for growth [73][74]

Core Insights - Tempus AI reported quarterly losses of four cents per share, aligning with consensus estimates [1] - Quarterly revenue reached $367.21 million, surpassing the Street estimate of $362.29 million and increasing from $200.68 million in the same period last year [1] - For fiscal 2026, Tempus AI projects revenue of $1.59 billion, slightly above the analyst estimate of $1.58 billion [2] Company Performance - The CEO of Tempus, Eric Lefkofsky, emphasized the company's unique position in the healthcare technology sector, highlighting strong unit growth in diagnostics and accelerating growth in their data business [2] - Tempus AI stock experienced a decline of 4.14%, closing at $55.55 during extended trading [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for the core business increased by over 33% in 2025, with the acquisition of Ambry contributing to even higher growth [4] - The diagnostics business in oncology experienced a unit growth of 29%, with a remarkable 56% quarter-over-quarter growth in minimal residual disease (MRD) testing [4][5] - The licensing business, referred to as Insights, grew by 69% in the quarter, with a projected growth of approximately 40% for the upcoming quarter [5] - Net revenue retention stood at 126%, indicating strong customer loyalty and increased ordering from existing clients [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The diagnostics segment showed strong performance, particularly in oncology, with unit growth of 29% and hereditary testing holding steady at 23% [4] - The data business, which includes licensing and applications, is growing even faster, with total contract value exceeding $1.1 billion [5] - The MRD testing segment is highlighted as having significant growth potential, with only a small percentage of the sales force currently selling it [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is well-positioned in the healthcare AI market, leveraging over 450 petabytes of connected multimodal data to enhance its offerings [9][10] - The oncology market is experiencing healthy growth rates, with the company capturing additional market share due to its data advantage [41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to integrate technology and AI into diagnostics, ensuring that decisions in clinical and research settings are data-driven [73] - The acquisition of Ambry was primarily to broaden the comprehensive nature of the testing compendium, aligning with the trend of providers seeking comprehensive solutions [60] - The company is focused on enhancing its data offerings and maintaining a competitive edge through proprietary data and technology [10][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth trajectory for 2026, with guidance of $1.59 billion in revenue and approximately $65 million in positive adjusted EBITDA [5] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for its data products, indicating a unique position in the market [48] - There is an expectation of moderation in hereditary testing growth rates, while oncology remains robust [30] Other Important Information - The average selling price (ASP) for tests in Q4 was around $1,640, with expectations of reaching over $2,200 in the coming years [21] - The company is actively working on enhancing its tumor-naive assays to compete in the market, with a focus on improving performance [70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about AI and market competition - Management highlighted the unique position of the company in the AI space, emphasizing its proprietary data and technology advantages [9][10] Question: Strategic value of Paige Predict and ASP expectations - Management discussed the importance of contextualizing diagnostics and the expected ASP growth driven by FDA-approved versions of tests [15][21] Question: Update on foundation model development - Management confirmed that benchmarks for the foundation model have been met and that testing is ongoing with AstraZeneca [26] Question: Volume growth assumptions for oncology and hereditary testing - Management indicated strong growth in oncology and moderate expectations for hereditary testing, with a focus on high teens growth rates [30][29] Question: Insights on MRD testing and sales force effectiveness - Management noted the strong performance of MRD testing despite a constrained sales effort, indicating significant potential for future growth [33] Question: Changes to sales organization and investment priorities - Management stated that no major changes were made to the sales organization, with a focus on leveraging technology and AI for diagnostics [73]

Tempus AI, Inc. Investor Presentation Q4 2025 and Full Year 2025 FEBRUARY 2026 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect Tempus AI, Inc.'s (the "Company" or "Tempus") current expectations and projections with respect to, among other things, its financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and business. Forward-looking statements include all statements that are not historical facts. Such forward-looking statements are subject to various ...