Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $44.8 million, an increase of $3.8 million or 9.2% year over year [5] - Adjusted EBITDA was negative $3.8 million, indicating a loss [5] - New unit sales volume increased by 23% year over year, significantly outpacing the industry's growth of 6.8% in new vehicle retail sales for the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The transition of certain OEM incentives from American Express to AAA auto buying side progressed rapidly, with AAA program revenue in March approaching previous levels seen with American Express [5] - Performance marketing campaigns have achieved the lowest cost per sale since 2022, effectively driving unit sales growth for dealer partners [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 50% of new vehicles retailed in the U.S. are imported, and tariffs are estimated to add about $4,500 in additional costs for new vehicles sold, equating to roughly 10% of the average pre-tariff new vehicle MSRP [8] - Despite the tariffs, strong and stable demand is expected to continue in the near term as dealers sell through pre-tariff inventory [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on scaling the TC Plus product, which aims to change the car buying experience for consumers and dealers [6] - A pilot program with a singular dealer group is being used to co-create tools and solutions for broader rollout [6] - The company is also onboarding additional pilot dealer groups to expand the TC Plus offering [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on the automotive sector, noting that the operational response from OEMs will dictate changes in new vehicle supply and pricing [8] - The company is taking steps to mitigate potential slowdowns in growth and aims to manage cash flow effectively in various scenarios [10] - Due to high uncertainty, the company refrained from providing financial guidance for Q2 and beyond [10] Other Important Information - The company is leveraging AI for personalized consumer experiences in marketing campaigns, which has shown attractive results [14][15] - The revenue mix is crucial for margins, with OEM revenue typically having the highest margin [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify the product enhancements mentioned in your letter? - Management highlighted the use of Gen AI for personalized email campaigns as an example of product enhancement [14] Question: How should we think about changes to OEM incentive ad spending? - Management indicated that OEMs may need to support vehicle sales more, which could benefit the company [16] Question: How should we think about margins across the business? - Management discussed three main cost buckets: headcount, marketing expense, and overhead, emphasizing the importance of efficiency [20][24] Question: Is the loss of the American Express business fully compensated by AAA? - Management confirmed that the transition is progressing and nearing previous levels [25] Question: What is the exposure to different OEMs regarding tariffs? - Management noted that not all OEMs are impacted equally and emphasized adaptability to help OEMs with their specific issues [31][32] Question: Are there considerations for stock buybacks? - Management stated that share buybacks are always considered as part of capital allocation strategies [34] Question: Can you provide insights on TC Plus and its economic benefits? - Management confirmed that TC Plus is driving both online purchases and increased volumes for dealers [38] Question: What is the timeline for CDK and Tech Yield integrations? - Management expressed confidence in the timeline for integrations but noted complexities with CDK [66] Question: What is the current behavior in dealership conversations? - Management reported that dealer morale is good, and sales are holding up despite uncertainty [70]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $44.8 million, an increase of $3.8 million or 9.2% year over year [5] - Adjusted EBITDA was negative $3.8 million, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability [5] - New unit sales volume increased by 23% year over year, significantly outpacing the industry's growth of 6.8% in new vehicle retail sales for the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The transition of OEM incentives from American Express to AAA auto buying side progressed rapidly, with AAA program revenue in March approaching previous levels seen with American Express [5] - Performance marketing campaigns have achieved the lowest cost per sale since 2022, effectively driving unit sales growth for dealer partners [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately 50% of new vehicles retailed in the U.S. are imported, and tariffs are estimated to add about $4,500 in additional costs for new vehicles sold, equating to roughly 10% of the average pre-tariff new vehicle MSRP [9] - Despite the tariffs, there is no expected material impact on strong demand in the near term as dealers sell through pre-tariff inventory [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on scaling the TC Plus product, which aims to enhance the car buying experience for consumers and dealers [6] - A pilot program with a singular dealer group is being utilized to co-create tools and solutions for broader rollout [6] - The company is also onboarding additional pilot dealer groups to expand consumer access to TC Plus [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on vehicle supply and pricing, indicating that the operational response from OEMs will dictate changes in retail sales volumes [9][10] - The company refrained from providing financial guidance for Q2 and beyond due to high levels of uncertainty in market dynamics [11] Other Important Information - The company is taking steps to mitigate potential slowdowns in growth and aims to manage cash flow effectively in various scenarios [11] - The integration with dealer management systems (DMS) providers is critical for automating deal documentation and desking activities [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify the product enhancements mentioned in the letter? - Management highlighted the use of Gen AI for personalized email campaigns as an example of product enhancement aimed at improving consumer experience [15][16] Question: How should we think about changes to OEM incentive ad spending? - Management indicated that OEMs may need to support vehicle sales more, which could benefit the company, but the uncertainty makes it hard to predict [17] Question: How should we think about margins across the business? - Management noted that margins will be influenced by revenue mix and flexibility in the cost structure, with OEM revenue typically having the highest margin [20][24] Question: What is the status of the transition from American Express to AAA? - Management confirmed that the transition is progressing and nearing previous levels, though not yet fully complete [26] Question: What is the exposure to different OEMs regarding tariffs? - Management stated that not all OEMs will be impacted equally, and the company is focused on helping OEMs navigate their specific challenges [30][32] Question: Is there consideration for stock buybacks? - Management confirmed that stock buybacks are always considered as part of their capital allocation strategy [35] Question: Can you provide insight into dealer behavior amid uncertainty? - Management reported that dealer morale remains strong, and there are no significant red flags in the field despite the uncertainty [69][70]

Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $44.8 million, a 9% year-over-year increase compared to $41.1 million in Q1 2024[7] - Non-GAAP expenses for Q1 2025 were $48.6 million, a 21% year-over-year increase compared to $40.1 million in Q1 2024[7] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was -$3.8 million, compared to $0.9 million in Q1 2024, with margin decreasing from 2% to -8%[7] Traffic and Units - Traffic in Q1 2025 was 5.8 million average monthly unique visitors, a 24% year-over-year decrease from 7.7 million in Q1 2024[9] - Total units in Q1 2025 were 86,000, a 9% year-over-year increase from 79,000 in Q1 2024[9] - Dealer count decreased by 1% year-over-year, from 11,388 in Q1 2024 to 11,272 in Q1 2025[9] Dealer Metrics - Franchise dealer count in Q1 2025 was 8,336, a 2% year-over-year increase[9, 19] - Independent dealer count in Q1 2025 was 2,936, an 8% year-over-year decrease[9, 23] Revenue Breakdown - Net Franchise Revenue for Q1 2025 was $28.5 million[14] - Net Independent Revenue for Q1 2025 was $6.0 million[14]

Company Performance - TrueCar reported a quarterly loss of $0.09 per share, which aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, compared to a loss of $0.04 per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $44.81 million for the quarter ended March 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.91%, and showing an increase from $41.05 million year-over-year [2] - TrueCar shares have declined approximately 58.2% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has decreased by only 3.3% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.05 on revenues of $47.26 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$0.14 on revenues of $198.53 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for TrueCar is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Internet - Services industry, to which TrueCar belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 37% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $44.8 million, representing a year-over-year increase of $3.8 million (+9.2%) [5] - Net loss increased to -$10.1 million, compared to -$5.8 million in the same period last year [5] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased to -$3.8 million from $0.9 million in the same period last year [5] - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $44.8 million, a 9.2% increase year-over-year from $41.1 million in Q1 2024, but a 3.0% decrease from $46.2 million in Q4 2024 [54][60] - Net loss for Q1 2025 was ($10.1 million), compared to ($5.8 million) in both Q1 2024 and Q4 2024 [54][56] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was ($3.8 million), down from $0.9 million in Q1 2024 [54][56] - Total costs and operating expenses increased to $56,008 thousand, up 15.4% from $48,537 thousand year-over-year [102] - Net loss for the period was $10,136 thousand, compared to a net loss of $5,848 thousand in the same quarter of the previous year, representing a 73.0% increase in losses [102] - Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $407 thousand, a significant improvement from a loss of $3,802 thousand in the same period of 2024 [107] Sales and Market Performance - New unit sales volume increased by 23% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the industry's growth of 6.8% in new vehicle retail sales for the quarter [5] - Total units sold in Q1 2025 were 86,000, a 9.3% increase year-over-year but a 7.7% decrease sequentially [70] - Total dealer revenue grew by $4.8 million (+13.3%) year-over-year, driven by a $1.7 million (+6.2%) increase in franchise dealer revenue [61] - OEM revenue for Q1 2025 was $3.8 million, a decline of $1.1 million (-22.4%) year-over-year [62] - Approximately one-third of the pilot dealer group's TrueCar-enabled sales were driven by TC+ consumers completing transactions online [3] Inventory and Financing - The average new vehicle inventory reached 2.7 million units, a decrease of 198 thousand units (-6.7%) quarter-over-quarter but an increase of 248 thousand units (+9.9%) year-over-year [25] - The average APR for new vehicle loans increased to 6.9% in Q1 2025, up from 6.6% in Q4 2024 [16] - The 25% tariffs on imported vehicles are estimated to add approximately $4,500 in additional costs per new vehicle sold in the US, equating to roughly 10% of the average pre-tariff new vehicle MSRP [7] Expenses and Cash Flow - Technology and development expenses totaled $8.1 million in Q1 2025, up 0.0% year-over-year [75] - General and administrative expenses were $10.1 million on a GAAP basis, up 6.3% YoY, and $7.8 million on a non-GAAP basis, up 4.2% YoY in Q1 2025 [76] - Sales and marketing expenses were $25.0 million on a GAAP basis, up 13.3% YoY, and $24.5 million on a non-GAAP basis, up 14.5% YoY in Q1 2025 [81] - TrueCar.com acquisition expense was $4.3 million, down 19.8% YoY, while cost per sale for TrueCar.com units was $170, down 11.9% YoY [82] - Partner marketing spend was $9.2 million, up 21.4% YoY, driven by a 19.1% YoY growth in units attributed to the partner network [82] - Cash and equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were $98.0 million, with no debt [55][56] - The company ended Q1 2025 with $98.0 million in cash and equivalents, down from $133.7 million at the end of Q1 2024 [83] - Cash usage included a $4 million payment to former equity holders of Digital Motors and a $1.4 million one-time payment to American Express [83] - Free cash flow for the three months ended March 31, 2025, was $(10,570) thousand, compared to $4,146 thousand in the previous quarter, reflecting a significant decrease [110] - The company reported a net cash used in operating activities of $(7,895) thousand for the period, compared to $2,049 thousand in the same quarter of 2024 [110] Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to complete back-end integrations with two dealer management system providers by the end of July 2025 [6] - TrueCar aims to enhance its growth strategy by improving lead quality through artificial intelligence and machine learning [91] - The company is focused on developing and scaling its TrueCar+ product to allow dealers to sell more inventory online [91] - TrueCar's management will host a call on May 6, 2025, to discuss financial results and business developments [84] Asset and Liability Management - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $98,026 thousand as of March 31, 2025, down from $111,835 thousand at the end of 2024, reflecting a decline of 12.3% [104] - Total assets decreased to $145,005 thousand as of March 31, 2025, down from $159,691 thousand at the end of 2024, a reduction of 9.2% [104] - Total liabilities decreased to $33,909 thousand, down from $41,554 thousand at the end of 2024, indicating a decline of 18.4% [104]

Group 1 - TrueCar, Inc. announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, in a stockholder letter [1] - A live call to discuss the first quarter results is scheduled for May 6, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. ET [2][3] - TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace connecting auto buyers and sellers through a network of Certified Dealers [5] Group 2 - TrueCar provides a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context for new, used, and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles [5] - The company powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including Sam's Club, AAA, and Navy Federal Credit Union [5] - TrueCar utilizes its Investor Relations website and social media platforms for disclosing material non-public information [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to General Motors (GM) and Ford, while Tesla and Rivian are rated "Underweight" (UW) [6][7]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing varied performance metrics across different companies, with GM and Ford showing potential upside in their stock prices, while Tesla and Rivian face significant downside risks [6][7]. - The report highlights the importance of valuation metrics such as EV/EBITDA, P/E ratios, and sales growth projections for assessing investment opportunities within the automotive sector [6][22]. Global Auto OEMs Investment Comparables - General Motors (GM) has a current price of $44.57 with a market cap of $43.067 billion and a target price of $53.00, indicating a 19% upside potential [6]. - Ford (F) is priced at $9.63 with a market cap of $38.294 billion and a target price of $11.00, representing a 14% upside [6]. - Ferrari (RACE) is valued at $439.97 with a target price of $460.00, showing a 5% upside [6]. - Tesla (TSLA) is currently priced at $241.37 with a target price of $120.00, indicating a -50% downside [6]. - Rivian (RIVN) has a price of $11.60 with a target price of $11.00, reflecting a -5% downside [6]. Global Auto Parts Suppliers Valuation Metrics - The average EV/EBITDA for US auto parts suppliers is projected at 1.8x for 2024, with a corresponding EBITDA margin of 12% [22]. - Aptiv (APTV) is rated "Overweight" with a current price of $51.71 and a target price of $102, indicating a 97% upside [22]. - Borg Warner (BWA) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $26.45 and a target price of $46, representing a 74% upside [22]. - Lear Corp (LEA) is rated "Overweight" with a price of $79.42 and a target price of $140, indicating a 76% upside [22]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the average revenue CAGR for US auto parts suppliers is projected to be 2% from 2023 to 2025 [74]. - The EBITDA margin for US auto parts suppliers is expected to be around 12% in 2025, with some companies showing higher margins [74][83]. - The report also highlights the financial returns of various suppliers, with some companies achieving significant returns on invested capital (ROIC) [54][56].

Core Insights - TrueCar, Inc. will report its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, on May 5, 2025, after market close [1] - A live call and webcast to discuss the results will be hosted by the CEO and CFO on May 6, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. ET [2] Company Overview - TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace connecting auto buyers and sellers with a nationwide network of Certified Dealers [4] - The company aims to enhance the auto shopping experience by providing personalized and efficient online services, including vehicle discovery tools and price ratings [4] - TrueCar supports auto-buying programs for over 250 brands, including Sam's Club, AAA, and Navy Federal Credit Union [4]

Core Viewpoint - JP Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta downgraded TrueCar, Inc. from Overweight to Neutral due to disappointing fourth-quarter results and uncertain recovery prospects [1][2]. Financial Performance - TrueCar reported a fourth-quarter EPS loss of 7 cents per share, which was worse than the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of 6 cents [1]. - Revenue for the quarter was $46.21 million, missing the consensus estimate of $47.29 million [1]. Growth and Profitability Outlook - The analyst highlighted a weakening boost from rising new vehicle inventories and limited visibility on a sustained turnaround in revenue and profits [1][2]. - Upcoming products and initiatives, such as TCMS, OEM advertising, and data monetization, present potential but require clear results to validate investments in sales and marketing [2]. Revised Financial Estimates - The FY25 EBITDA estimate was revised from a previous projection of over $15 million to breakeven due to weaker dealer revenue [3]. - The FY26 EBITDA estimate was lowered from $35 million to $25 million [3]. Market Reaction - Following the downgrade and revised estimates, TrueCar shares fell by 5.21%, trading at $2.531 [3].

Group 1 - TrueCar (TRUE) has experienced a significant decline of 19.1% over the past four weeks, but it is now in oversold territory, indicating a potential trend reversal [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for TRUE is currently at 29.63, suggesting that the heavy selling pressure may be exhausting itself [5] - There is a strong consensus among Wall Street analysts that TRUE will report better earnings than previously predicted, with a 2.6% increase in consensus EPS estimates over the last 30 days [6] Group 2 - TRUE holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises, indicating a potential turnaround [7]