Market Overview - Mid cap growth equities experienced modest gains in Q3, with the Russell Midcap Growth Index returning 2.8%, lagging behind the Russell Midcap Value Index at 6.2% and the Russell Midcap Index at 5.3% [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut in September contributed to easing monetary policy, benefiting rate-sensitive sectors and renewing interest in cyclical and innovation-led areas [3] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment improved due to the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill and progress on trade agreements, reducing policy uncertainty and enabling companies to execute delayed strategic decisions [4] - Earnings estimates stabilized, particularly in technology and AI-related sectors, despite ongoing challenges in non-residential construction and discretionary segments [4] Portfolio Performance - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy outperformed its benchmark in Q3, driven by stock selection in IT, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors, while consumer discretionary and financials sectors slightly detracted from performance [5] Sector Contributions - In the IT sector, AppLovin (APP) and Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) were standout performers, with AppLovin benefiting from strong earnings and optimism around its e-commerce business [6] - Consumer staples saw positive contributions from Performance Food Group (PFGC) and Casey's General Stores (CASY), both benefiting from strong operational performance [7] - The consumer discretionary sector faced challenges, particularly with Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Wingstop (WING) experiencing declines due to competitive pressures and softer spending trends [8] - Financials sector was a modest drag on performance, with Tradeweb Markets (TW) and Corpay facing challenges from macro volatility and company-specific issues [9] Portfolio Positioning - New positions were initiated in Roblox, benefiting from improved growth dynamics and advertising opportunities, and APi Group, which is well-positioned in safety and industrial services [10][11] - Exited position in Deckers Outdoor (DECK) due to increasing competitive pressures in the sneaker market [12] Outlook - Leadership within mid growth stocks remains selective, with a few companies rewarded for differentiated technology and strong pipelines, while others struggle with demand and competition [13] - Focus remains on identifying businesses with secular growth drivers across technology, healthcare, and industrials sectors [14] - Near-term market uncertainty is expected to persist, but the strategy is positioned to benefit from companies sustaining durable growth in earnings and cash flow [15] Portfolio Highlights - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy had positive contributions across seven of the 11 sectors, with IT and healthcare being the leading contributors [16] - Stock selection in IT, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy sectors contributed positively, while consumer discretionary and financials sectors weighed on performance [17] - Individual stock contributions included AppLovin, United Rentals (URI), and Performance Food, while detractors included Chipotle Mexican Grill and Tradeweb Markets [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk is a strong business in the advertising industry but is not currently a compelling investment due to competitive pressures, execution challenges, and high valuation [2][14]. Group 1: Business Performance - The Trade Desk has a history of consistent growth, having delivered over 30 consecutive quarters of revenue beats until late 2024, when it reported its first revenue miss in over eight years [3][4]. - In Q2 2025, revenue increased by 19% year over year, indicating resilience in a challenging advertising market [4]. - Customer retention remains above 95%, and advertisers are increasing their use of The Trade Desk's platform, supported by innovations like Kokai that enhance campaign effectiveness [5][4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The advertising ecosystem is rapidly changing, with Amazon emerging as a significant threat, boasting over $50 billion in annual advertising revenue and a partnership with Netflix that enhances its CTV inventory access [8]. - Competitors like Alphabet and Meta dominate the digital ad market, leveraging AI to improve targeting and ROI for advertisers, creating a challenging environment for The Trade Desk [9]. - The opportunity in CTV and retail media remains substantial, but The Trade Desk must prove its unique value proposition to maintain relevance [10]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The Trade Desk trades at approximately 60 times earnings and about 9 times sales, indicating a high valuation that assumes strong growth and competitive advantages [11]. - High multiples can be justified with consistent outperformance, but with reemerging execution risks and intensifying competition, the stock offers little margin for error [12]. - Investors may face modest returns if multiples compress, necessitating exceptional performance from The Trade Desk to justify current valuations [12]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Potential positive developments for The Trade Desk include demonstrating measurable improvements in campaign performance through Kokai and achieving a more attractive entry price that enhances the risk-reward profile [15].

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk Inc. has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with a 70% drop followed by a 110% rally, leading to mixed investor sentiment regarding its recovery potential [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - The stock opened around $50, remaining over 10% above September's low, with support at $43 holding for the second time this year, indicating a potential base for recovery [2]. - A bounce of over 10% from early September lows has strengthened the technical setup, with $43 acting as a hard floor, building investor confidence [3]. - The MACD has crossed into a bullish pattern, suggesting a trend reversal, while the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating potential for a sustained rally [4]. Group 2: Product and Market Developments - The Trade Desk announced its Audience Unlimited data marketplace, described as a "major upgrade," leveraging AI to enhance advertisers' understanding of data relevance [6]. - Following the announcement, shares jumped as much as 7%, reflecting Wall Street's continued interest in The Trade Desk's innovation pipeline [7]. - The broader digital advertising market is stabilizing, with analysts from Guggenheim, Needham, and UBS reiterating bullish stances on The Trade Desk [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The Trade Desk faces significant competition from larger peers like Alphabet and Amazon, which could pressure its margins and necessitate increased spending on innovation [9][10]. - Analysts express concerns over slowing growth and intensifying competition, with Morgan Stanley moving to the sidelines and JMP Securities highlighting the saturation in the ad-tech industry [11][12].

Company Overview - The Trade Desk, Inc. is an American global technology company specializing in digital advertising through a cloud-based platform [1] Business Model - The company offers a self-service demand-side platform that enables advertisers to reach target audiences using preferred digital formats [1]

In other words, an OEM (original equipment manufacturer) can ship a TV that boots into DirecTV's experience, but the advertising marketplace and measurement behind the scenes will run on Ventura. As Matthew Henick, senior vice president of Ventura TV OS, put it, "TV manufacturers deserve more choice in how they build their businesses," adding that the goal is a "more transparent and equitable ecosystem" for advertisers and publishers.DirecTV gives Ventura an on-ramp that consumers recognize. The partners pl ...

Core Insights - JR Research is recognized as a top analyst in technology, software, and internet sectors, focusing on growth and GARP strategies [1] - The investment approach emphasizes identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities with robust price action to generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1][2] - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in high-potential opportunities across various sectors, targeting stocks with strong growth potential and turnaround plays [3] Investment Strategy - The focus is on growth investing opportunities that present significant upside potential while avoiding overhyped and overvalued stocks [2] - The strategy combines price action analysis with fundamental investing to capitalize on battered stocks with recovery possibilities [2] - The investment outlook typically spans 18 to 24 months for the thesis to materialize [3] Group Characteristics - Ultimate Growth Investing is designed for investors looking to capitalize on growth stocks with strong fundamentals and buying momentum [3] - The group targets highly attractive valuations for turnaround plays and robust growth stocks [3]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) stock is currently at its 12-month lows, indicating a potential investment opportunity for traders [1]. Company Analysis - The Trade Desk operates in the technology sector, specifically focusing on advertising technology, which is a dynamic and rapidly evolving industry [1]. - The analyst emphasizes the importance of rigorous research and high investment standards, suggesting that thorough analysis is crucial for identifying growth opportunities in the tech sector [1]. Market Context - The technology sector, particularly SaaS and cloud businesses, is highlighted as offering significant growth potential, making it an attractive area for investment [1].

Not long ago, in June to be precise, I assigned a sell rating to The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD ). Unfortunately (I'm not short, so I have no reason to hope the stock falls), the analysis aged like fine wine, with the stockEquity Research Analyst with a broad career in the financial market, covered both Brazilian and global stocks. As a value investor, my analysis is primarily fundamental, focusing on identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential. Feel free to reach out for collaborations or to co ...

The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTD ) shares are down over 63% from their peak, after a 15% recovery from a sharp selloff induced by a reality check in the form of market share losses and intensifyingI aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates.I manage a concentrated portfo ...

Core Insights - Advertisers are cautious about third-party data due to high costs and effectiveness uncertainty, leading to low adoption rates and significant media spend losses [1] - The Trade Desk is addressing these challenges with Audience Unlimited, enhancing its marketplace for third-party data [1][9] Group 1: Audience Unlimited and Koa Adaptive Trading Modes - Audience Unlimited utilizes AI to rank third-party data segments for campaign relevance, offering a simplified pricing model that reduces costs for advertisers [2][9] - Koa Adaptive Trading Modes provide two options: Performance Mode, which optimizes bids and budgets dynamically, and Control Mode, which allows manual management with AI recommendations [3][4] - In Performance Mode, Audience Unlimited is included at no extra cost, while Control Mode has tiered rates of 3.3% or 4.4% of impression costs [4] Group 2: Performance Improvements and Ecosystem Developments - The Trade Desk's Kokai platform, powered by Koa AI, has led to over 20-point KPI lifts for clients, with spending on Kokai growing 20% faster than non-users [5] - OpenPath enhances supply chain transparency, benefiting publishers and clients, and promotes unbiased access to premium inventory [5] Group 3: Competitor Innovations - Magnite is enhancing its supply-side platform with updates to ClearLine for unified inventory management and AI tools from Streamr.ai to streamline workflows [6] - Taboola is expanding its performance advertising platform, Realize, with new Generative AI features to improve measurable results for advertisers [8] Group 4: Financial Performance and Market Position - The Trade Desk's shares have declined 54.4% over the past year, contrasting with the rise of the Zacks Internet -Services industry and S&P 500 [11] - TTD's forward price/earnings ratio stands at 24.98X, higher than the industry average of 24.15 [12]