Group 1 - The Trade Desk (TTD) experienced a challenging year in 2025, with its stock price declining approximately 70% [1] - Revenue growth rates for TTD in the second and third quarters of 2025 were significantly lower than expected [1] Group 2 - Mosaic Insights focuses on identifying companies with high revenue growth, expanding margins, and durable competitive advantages [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes quality growth, global scope to reduce portfolio volatility, and a business-first analysis approach [1] - The philosophy of high-quality growth is inspired by renowned investors such as Charlie Munger, Peter Lynch, and Terry Smith [1]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets ended the fourth quarter positively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rising 2.4% and 2.6% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average led with a 3.6% return [2] - The Russell 1000 Growth Index lagged, increasing only 1.1% as investors shifted from high-growth technology stocks to more defensive sectors [2] - The quarter was marked by significant volatility, influenced by a 43-day government shutdown that affected market transparency and risk appetite [2] Economic and Monetary Policy - Approximately 83% of S&P 500 companies reported positive earnings surprises, indicating a broadening economic recovery beyond the "Magnificent Seven" [4] - The Federal Reserve implemented two 25-basis point cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by year-end, and concluded its quantitative tightening program [4] - The Fed's balance sheet expanded by approximately $100 billion to $6.6 trillion, reflecting a shift from "abundant" to "ample" bank reserves [4] Sector Performance - Ithaka's portfolio underperformed the Russell 1000 Growth Index by 700 basis points, with stock selection detracting 740 basis points from relative performance [6] - Positive relative returns were generated in the Materials and Processing sector, while Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors were significant sources of underperformance [7] - Weakness in Technology was attributed to fears of AI disintermediating software stocks, while Consumer Discretionary faced pressures from consumer spending concerns [7] Top Contributors and Detractors - Top contributors included Intuitive Surgical (26.6% return), Advanced Micro Devices (32.4%), and Alphabet (28.9%), driven by strong earnings and positive investor sentiment [9][10][12] - Major detractors were ServiceNow (-16.8%), Netflix (-21.8%), and Veeva Systems (-25.1%), with concerns over AI impacts and unexpected financial disclosures affecting stock performance [9][15][16] Investment Strategy and Outlook - Ithaka initiated three new positions and eliminated four during the quarter, with a trailing 12-month turnover of 22.1% [17] - The investment approach focuses on long-term wealth creation through concentrated positions in high-quality companies with strong management and favorable market conditions [4][19] - The narrative around AI is shifting towards tangible productivity gains, suggesting that the economic opportunities from AI will continue to expand [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) shares have reached a new 52-week low as investors react to President Trump's proposed tariffs on goods from several European countries, raising concerns about the impact on the company's advertising revenue [1][4]. Company Performance - The Trade Desk reported quarterly results in November with revenue of approximately $739 million, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents, surpassing consensus expectations. The company guided for fourth-quarter revenue exceeding $840 million [5]. - Despite the positive earnings report, BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich maintained an Underperform rating and reduced the price target from $49 to $40, citing concerns over macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs [6]. Market Conditions - The proposed 10% tariffs on goods from key European countries could negatively affect the margins of consumer and luxury brands that heavily invest in digital advertising, which is crucial for The Trade Desk's business model [3]. - The stock is currently trading 8.5% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 10.2% below its 100-day SMA, indicating bearish momentum. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased by 72.56% [7]. Analyst Insights - The average price target for The Trade Desk is $65.32, with a consensus rating of Buy, despite a projected 15% decline in earnings [10]. - The stock is trading at a premium P/E multiple of 40.3x, indicating a steep valuation compared to peers, while the growth potential remains strong with a score of 90.67/100 [12]. ETF Exposure - The Trade Desk has significant weight in the SmartETFs Advertising and Marketing Technology ETF (NYSE:MRAD), which could lead to automatic buying or selling of the stock based on ETF inflows or outflows [13].

Industry Overview - The global digital advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2025 to 2030, indicating its attractiveness as a long-term growth market in technology [1]. Company Profiles The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) - TTD operates as a demand-side platform (DSP) in the digital advertising ecosystem, facing macroeconomic volatility that could pressure revenue growth due to reduced programmatic demand [2][4]. - The company is experiencing intense competition from major players like Meta Platforms, Apple, Google, and Amazon, which dominate the ad space with their control over inventory and first-party user data [5]. - TTD is investing in AI across its portfolio, leading to increased capital expenditures and operational costs, with total operating costs rising 17% year over year to $457 million [6]. - Geographic expansion poses complexities and risks, compounded by regulatory changes such as the deprecation of cookies and tightening data privacy laws [7]. - Despite challenges, TTD benefits from a shift towards an open Internet and expects decision-based CTV buying to become the default model, with 85% of clients using its AI-powered Kokai DSP [8]. Magnite, Inc. (MGNI) - MGNI operates as a supply-side platform (SSP) and is significantly benefiting from the connected TV (CTV) trend, with CTV accounting for approximately 45% of its total contribution excluding TAC [9]. - The company has established deep partnerships with major publishers and agency marketplaces, particularly in live sports and SMB advertising, with Netflix and Roku as key partners [11]. - MGNI is enhancing its ClearLine platform, which now has over 30 clients, and is integrating new technologies like the Model Context Protocol (MCP) to automate tasks [12]. - SpringServe, MGNI's CTV ad serving platform, is highlighted as a critical differentiator, especially after being selected by Spotify as its global programmatic partner [13]. - However, MGNI faces competitive pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties that could impact ad budgets, with a raised capex guidance to $80 million for 2025 [14]. Share Performance & Valuation - Over the past month, TTD shares have decreased by 4.8%, while MGNI shares have fallen by 12.5% [17]. - TTD is trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 16.73X, compared to MGNI's 13.74X, indicating a higher valuation for TTD [18]. - Analysts have kept their earnings estimates unchanged for both TTD and MGNI over the past 60 days, suggesting stability in expectations [19][21]. - In terms of Zacks Rank, MGNI is currently rated as a better pick with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), while TTD carries a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [22].

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is anticipated to be a significant year for certain stocks, particularly Nvidia, Nebius Group, and The Trade Desk, which are expected to show strong performance as fourth-quarter results from 2025 are released [1][2]. Nvidia - Nvidia is the largest company by market cap, driven by its dominant position in graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence (AI) computing [3]. - The company has reported being sold out of cloud GPUs, indicating sustained demand for its products [4]. - Nvidia's fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings are set to be reported on February 25, with expectations that its fiscal 2027 guidance will exceed current market expectations [6]. Nebius Group - Nebius Group is gaining attention for its services that connect high-end Nvidia GPUs to computing clusters, experiencing significant demand [7]. - The company reported a remarkable 355% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, with an annual run rate (ARR) of $551 million [8]. - Nebius has dramatically increased its 2026 revenue projection, expecting an ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, which could lead to rapid stock appreciation if achieved [8][10]. The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk faced challenges in 2025, being one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 due to issues with its AI-powered ad buying platform and lack of political advertising revenue [11]. - In 2026, the company is expected to resolve its platform issues and avoid difficult year-over-year comparisons, potentially leading to a significant stock increase [12]. - Currently trading at less than 18 times forward earnings, The Trade Desk presents a value opportunity compared to the S&P 500 average of 22.4 times [12][14].

In the current session, Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) is trading at $35.48, after a 2.07% decrease. Over the past month, the stock fell by 5.24%, and in the past year, by 71.50%. With performance like this, long-term shareholders are more likely to start looking into the company's price-to-earnings ratio. Evaluating Trade Desk P/E in Comparison to Its PeersThe P/E ratio measures the current share price to the company's EPS. It is used by long-term investors to analyze the company's current performance agains ...

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks have experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 Growth Index up over 112% since the start of 2023, outperforming the S&P 500 Value Index [1][2] Group 1: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk faced challenges in 2025 due to a slow transition to its AI-powered ad-buying platform, Kokai, which alienated some advertisers [4] - Amazon's entry into the ad space has increased competition, potentially pressuring The Trade Desk's pricing and market share [5] - Despite a drop in stock price, The Trade Desk's digital advertising market is expected to grow at 15% annually through 2030, presenting a buying opportunity [7] - The stock is trading around $36, with a market cap of $17 billion and a forward P/E ratio of 17.4, alongside a projected 17% earnings growth for 2026 [8] Group 2: Fortinet - Fortinet's stock has declined about 33% from its peak, attributed to weak firewall sales and disappointing product updates [9][10] - The company anticipates a 12% year-over-year revenue growth, down from 14% in the previous quarter [10] - Transitioning to software products like SASE and SecOps shows promise, with billings in these areas growing 19% and 33% respectively [12] - The stock is priced around $76, with a forward P/E ratio of 26, indicating potential for future growth as software becomes a larger part of its business [13] Group 3: Marvell Technology - Marvell Technology is crucial in AI data centers, with its networking chips and custom AI accelerators driving growth [14] - Reports of Microsoft considering a rival chipmaker for its Maia chip have raised concerns, but demand for AI accelerators remains strong [15] - Marvell is projected to generate $8.2 billion in revenue this year, targeting $10 billion next year, despite potential revenue impacts from competition [15] - The stock is trading around $80, with a forward P/E ratio of 28.4, and expectations for 22% revenue growth and 27% earnings growth next year [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has launched a new advertising bidding environment called OpenAds, which has gained widespread support from multiple publishing partners, aiming to provide a more direct, credible, and transparent bidding option for publishers and sellers [1] Group 1: Industry Demand - As more advertisers fully adopt programmatic advertising, they are raising their expectations regarding bidding mechanisms, with a growing focus on transparency, visibility, and high-quality signals during the bidding process [1] Group 2: OpenAds Features - OpenAds is designed to meet industry demands by creating a highly credible and transparent bidding environment, promoting a healthier supply chain operation within the advertising technology ecosystem [1] - The initiative aims to benefit all participants in the ecosystem [1]

Investment Opportunities - The market is currently at all-time highs, but there are still significant investment opportunities available [1] - Three stocks are highlighted as excellent buys for 2026: Nvidia, MercadoLibre, and The Trade Desk, each representing different market approaches [2] Nvidia - Nvidia is the world's largest company by market capitalization, primarily due to its leading graphics processing units (GPUs) that support artificial intelligence workloads [3] - The company has a market cap of $4.5 trillion, with a current stock price of $186.92 and a gross margin of 70.05% [4][5] - Analysts project a remarkable 50% revenue growth for Nvidia in fiscal year 2027, driven by increased AI spending and the launch of its new architecture, Rubin [6] MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre is often referred to as the "Amazon of Latin America," with a strong e-commerce platform and logistics network enabling rapid delivery [7] - The company has a market cap of $107 billion, with a current stock price of $2098.85 and a gross margin of 45.14% [8][9] - MercadoLibre has built a digital payment infrastructure from scratch, giving it a competitive edge in two significant growth areas, and the stock is currently down nearly 20% from its all-time high, presenting a buying opportunity [9][10] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk operates an ad technology platform that connects ad buyers with optimal ad placements, excluding major platforms like Facebook and Google [11] - Despite facing challenges with its new AI-powered ad platform, The Trade Desk has retained 95% of its customer base and achieved 18% growth, although this is the lowest growth rate in its history [12][14] - The company is expected to grow at an above-average pace, with a forward earnings price of 18 times, compared to the S&P 500's 22.4 times, making it an attractive investment opportunity [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk is experiencing a decline in stock performance compared to the broader market, with upcoming earnings expected to show steady earnings per share and revenue growth [1][2]. Company Performance - The Trade Desk closed at $36.23, down 2.42% from the previous day, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.26% [1]. - Over the past month, shares have decreased by 0.11%, lagging behind the Computer and Technology sector's gain of 1.58% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.57% [1]. Earnings Estimates - The upcoming EPS for The Trade Desk is projected at $0.59, indicating stability compared to the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenue is estimated to be $841.87 million, reflecting a 13.61% increase from the prior-year quarter [2]. - For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.78 per share, with revenue expected to be $2.89 billion, showing changes of +7.23% and 0% respectively from the previous year [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Recent changes in analyst estimates for The Trade Desk are crucial for investors, as positive revisions often indicate a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [3][4]. - The Zacks Rank system, which considers estimate changes, currently ranks The Trade Desk at 3 (Hold) [5]. Valuation Metrics - The Trade Desk has a Forward P/E ratio of 17.71, which is lower than the industry average of 18.51 [6]. - The company also has a PEG ratio of 0.87, compared to the Internet - Services industry's average PEG ratio of 1.77 [6]. Industry Context - The Internet - Services industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 97, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 industries [7]. - Research indicates that top-rated industries outperform lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [7].