Company Overview - The Trade Desk, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) is a cloud-based platform that assists advertisers in planning, managing, and measuring digital ad campaigns across various formats and devices [3]. Recent Performance - The Trade Desk's stock was highlighted as the sixth worst performer in the S&P 500, experiencing a significant decline after the announcement of the firing of their new CFO just five months into the role [1]. - The company has transitioned from being a market darling to a chronic underperformer, struggling to adapt to the new AI era, and ended the previous year as the worst performer in the S&P 500, down 68% [3]. Management Changes - The abrupt firing of the CFO has raised concerns about the company's stability and future direction, contributing to the perception that the stock is not worth the risk at this time [1].

Company Performance - The Trade Desk has experienced a significant decline, with its stock dropping by 67% in 2025 and an additional 20% at the start of the current year [1] - Despite the recent downturn, The Trade Desk has historically outperformed the broader market over its lifetime [3] Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment for The Trade Desk has intensified, particularly with Amazon emerging as a major player in digital advertising by launching a competing platform and partnering with Netflix [5] - The Trade Desk's revenue growth has slowed for several quarters, which is concerning for a company with a high valuation [5] Valuation and Financial Health - At its peak in late 2024, The Trade Desk was trading at 85 times its forward earnings estimates, indicating a valuation that was difficult to sustain [4] - Currently, the stock is trading at under 15 times forward earnings estimates, which suggests a potential undervaluation given the anticipated earnings growth of 20% annually over the next three to five years [8] Management Changes - The Trade Desk recently faced management instability, having fired its new chief financial officer after only a few months, which has contributed to the lack of confidence from Wall Street [6] Technological Advancements - The company has transitioned to an improved, AI-capable technology platform named Kokai in 2023, which may enhance its competitive position in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk's stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping over 78% in the past year, primarily due to a price target cut by KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson, who lowered it from $88 to $40 while maintaining a buy rating, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the previous closing price [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - The Trade Desk has faced a challenging environment, particularly for small and medium-sized adtech businesses, as larger competitors leverage artificial intelligence to enhance market reach [2]. - The company recently experienced its second CFO departure in less than a year, which has contributed to investor concerns [2]. - The Trade Desk missed its own guidance for the first time as a public company early last year, ending a streak of 33 consecutive quarters of meeting expectations, with CEO Jeff Green acknowledging "a series of small execution missteps" [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Investors are increasingly skeptical about The Trade Desk's future growth prospects, as the company has shown slowing growth and faces heightened competition [4]. - The stock's significant decline has led to doubts about whether The Trade Desk's best days are behind it, with no signs of recovery currently evident [4]. - The Motley Fool Stock Advisor's analyst team has identified other stocks as better investment opportunities, excluding The Trade Desk from their recommended list [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) is identified as a potential stock that could double in value by the end of 2026 due to its current undervaluation and growth prospects [2]. Company Performance - The Trade Desk's stock has declined nearly 80% from its all-time high in late 2024, continuing to fall throughout 2025 and into 2026, reaching a valuation of 15 times forward earnings, which is considered a bargain [5]. - Despite the stock's decline, The Trade Desk reported an 18% revenue increase in Q3 2025, indicating healthy growth, although it was impacted by a lack of political spending [7]. - Wall Street analysts project a 16% growth for The Trade Desk in the upcoming year, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $2.09, potentially reaching $2.40 at the high end of projections [8]. Market Context - The Trade Desk operates a buy-side ad platform, benefiting from political spending during election years, which was absent in Q3 2025 but contributed to its performance in Q3 2024 [7]. - The company is expected to grow faster than the market, as measured by the S&P 500, which trades at 22.2 times forward earnings; thus, The Trade Desk should have a similar or higher valuation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market presents opportunities to increase holdings in five specific stocks that are expected to thrive in the coming years, despite the market being near all-time highs. Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia has been a top-performing stock and continues to benefit from significant spending in the artificial intelligence sector, with data center buildouts still ongoing [2][4] - The stock is currently priced at $185.71, with a market cap of $4.6 trillion and a gross margin of 70.05% [3][4] - Analysts project over 50% year-over-year revenue growth for fiscal 2027, with the stock trading at 25 times full-year 2027 earnings, indicating it is undervalued [4] Group 2: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk is trading at a low valuation of 15 times forward earnings, while experiencing healthy growth, with a reported 18% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [5][6] - Despite market pessimism due to slowing growth and rising competition, it remains a leading advertising platform, making it an attractive investment opportunity [6] Group 3: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre offers exposure to the Latin American market and has shown strong performance over the past decade, including recent quarterly results [7][9] - The stock is currently priced at $2,147.20, with a market cap of $109 billion, and is down approximately 13% from its peak in July 2025, presenting a buying opportunity [8][9] Group 4: Nebius Group - Nebius Group provides full-stack AI computing solutions, with management expecting significant growth, projecting an annual run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by year-end [10][11] - The company’s annual run rate was only $551 million at the end of the last quarter, indicating substantial growth potential for 2026 [11] Group 5: Broadcom - Broadcom is focusing on AI computing units, partnering with AI hyperscalers to design specialized computing units, which may offer better results at lower costs compared to traditional GPUs [12] - The stock is currently priced at $331.11, with a market cap of $1.6 trillion and a gross margin of 64.71% [13]

Core Thesis - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) is viewed positively despite facing near-term challenges, with a strong long-term growth potential in programmatic advertising [1][4][5] Company Overview - The Trade Desk operates as a technology company in the digital advertising space, both in the United States and internationally [2] - The company's shares were trading at $31.25 as of January 29th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 36.22 and 24.88, respectively [1] Current Challenges - TTD is experiencing pressure from slowing digital ad spending, increased competition from major platforms like Google and Amazon, and concerns regarding its transition to a new system [2] - Operating margins are affected by rising costs as the company invests in technology and growth initiatives [2] Market Position and Growth Potential - Despite challenges, TTD remains a leader in programmatic advertising, with strong client retention and a scalable platform [3] - The company is expected to achieve 17% growth in 2025, with a net profit margin of 14.5%, while trading at a forward P/E of 55.9x [4] - TTD's strategic investments and market leadership provide multiple entry points for investors, with defined buy zones around $32 and $18 [4] Long-term Outlook - The structural growth opportunity in programmatic advertising supports a compelling long-term investment thesis, driven by a robust platform and loyal client base [4][5] - The ongoing digital transformation in advertising positions TTD to benefit from potential upside, despite cyclical headwinds [5] Hedge Fund Interest - TTD is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 42 hedge fund portfolios holding TTD at the end of Q3, down from 60 in the previous quarter [8]

Group 1 - The Trade Desk's stock fell nearly 70% in 2025 and is down an additional 16% at the start of 2026, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 [1][2] - The stock is now down nearly 80% from its all-time high, raising questions about whether it represents a value play or a value trap [2] - The decline in The Trade Desk's stock is attributed to slowing growth and rising competition, particularly from Amazon's rapidly growing ad service [3][4] Group 2 - Amazon's ad service generated $17.7 billion in revenue during Q3, up 24% year over year, while The Trade Desk's revenue increased at an 18% pace, totaling $2.8 billion over the past 12 months [4] - Advertisers are increasingly choosing Amazon's advertising model over The Trade Desk's, as it offers more optimal advertising space [5] - The Trade Desk's valuation has dropped from over 50 times forward earnings to 15 times forward earnings, compared to the S&P 500's 22.2 times forward earnings [6] Group 3 - The current valuation of The Trade Desk suggests a perception of shrinking rather than growth, despite the company still growing at a decent pace [7] - There is a belief that this represents a prime buying opportunity for The Trade Desk's stock, as it may return to a more reasonable market-average valuation level [7]

Core Insights - The market presents significant growth and value investment opportunities, particularly for stocks expected to perform well in 2026 [1] - A selection of stocks is highlighted as potential strong performers over the next few years [2] Company Summaries Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported outstanding Q4 2025 earnings, with management forecasting nearly 30% revenue growth in 2026 [3] - The company anticipates its AI chip revenue will grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 60% from 2024 to 2029 [3] - Current market cap is $1.7 trillion, with a gross margin of 59.02% and a dividend yield of 0.93% [4][5] The Trade Desk (TTD) - The Trade Desk's stock has decreased by 75% from its all-time high, but it still remains a leading ad platform [6] - The company grew revenue by 18% in Q3, with Wall Street analysts projecting 16% growth for 2026 [8] - The current market cap is $15 billion, with a gross margin of 78.81% [7] Nebius (NBIS) - Nebius operates data centers equipped with advanced GPUs for AI workloads, offering a full-stack setup for clients [9] - Management forecasts significant growth, expecting annual revenue to rise from $551 million to between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026 [10] - The current market cap is $21 billion, with a gross margin of -1312.43% [10]

Core Insights - The Trade Desk (TTD) has experienced a significant decline, with a total loss of -15% over five days, resulting in a market capitalization drop of approximately $2.7 billion to $15 billion [2][9] - Year-to-date (YTD) return for TTD is -17.7%, contrasting with a positive return of 1.8% for the S&P 500, indicating a need for reassessment of the stock's valuation [3] Causes of Decline - The sudden resignation of Chief Financial Officer Alex Kayyal after only six months has been identified as a key factor contributing to the stock's decline, leading to a nearly 5% drop on the announcement day and multiple analyst downgrades [4][9] Valuation Perspective - Despite the recent stock decline, TTD is viewed as having strong operational performance and financial stability, leading to the conclusion that it is fairly priced [5] - The market has already absorbed the information regarding the stock's decline, suggesting that predictive signals are necessary for avoiding future underperformers [6] Comparative Performance - TTD's ongoing losing streak contrasts with the performance of the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which has consistently outperformed its benchmarks, including the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices [8][10]

研究显示，在调研覆盖的多个国家和地区中，观众观看直播体育赛事的方式正发生明显变化。随着流媒 体平台上体育赛事内容持续扩充，越来越多观众开始通过CTV和流媒体平台收看赛事。以北美和欧洲市 场为例，美国有27%的受访者表示正在通过CTV观看更多直播体育赛事，而通过传统电视观看的比例为 18%；在加拿大，这一比例为23%。与此同时，在意大利，72%的受访者表示计划观看这一冬季体育盛 事的直播赛事，以流媒体为核心的观看方式正在成为主流。 即便是在观看赛事直播的过程中，观众的内容参与也并未止步于单一屏幕。研究发现，观众会在赛事周 期内频繁切换高光集锦、新闻更新、短视频内容以及线上讨论。以美国市场为例，61%的观众会观看赛 事高光集锦，51%会关注体育相关新闻，35%会回看赛事录像；在加拿大和澳大利亚，近三分之二的观 众会在赛事间隙观看集锦内容；而在日本、中国香港及韩国等亚洲市场，集锦与短视频内容的观看比例 同样维持在约70%的高位。 本报讯 （记者梁傲男）1月27日，广告科技公司The Trade Desk（纳斯达克：TTD，以下简称TTD）联 合市场调研机构Appinio发布的最新研究显示，即将在米兰举行的全球冬季体 ...