Core Insights - The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) launched Kokai in 2023, a next-generation platform utilizing Koa AI to enhance programmatic advertising through advanced analytics and integrations, potentially reshaping TTD's revenue and competitive position [2][4] Group 1: Kokai Platform Features and Adoption - Kokai employs a distributed AI architecture with specialized models for various functions, improving efficiency and reliability in ad performance [3] - Nearly all TTD clients have tested Kokai, with 85% adopting it as their default platform, leading to significant performance improvements: 26% better cost per acquisition, 58% better cost per unique reach, and a 94% higher click-through rate [4][10] - Successful case studies include Specsavers reducing appointment booking costs by 43% and Danone increasing conversion rates by one-third for its Actimel brand [5] Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - TTD is well-positioned for market share growth in 2026, supported by Kokai's adoption, growth in connected TV (CTV) and retail media, and strong client retention, despite competition from Magnite, Inc. and Taboola.com Inc. [6] - Magnite reported a strong third quarter with 18% CTV growth, driven by its SpringServe ad server, while Taboola's new platform, Realize, enhances performance advertising capabilities across the open web [7][8] Group 3: Financial Performance and Valuation - TTD shares have declined by 71.7% over the past year, contrasting with the 61.6% growth of the Zacks Internet – Services industry [11] - TTD's forward price/earnings ratio stands at 26.86X, lower than the industry average of 29.52X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTD's earnings for 2025 has remained stable over the past 60 days [13]

Core Viewpoint - BofA has lowered the price target for Trade Desk (TTD) to $40 from $49 and maintains an Underperform rating on the shares, citing concerns over revenue growth and management changes [1] Group 1: Price Target and Rating - BofA reduced the price target for Trade Desk to $40 from $49 [1] - The firm continues to hold an Underperform rating on Trade Desk shares [1] Group 2: Financial Forecast - BofA forecasts that Trade Desk's Q4 results will at least meet guidance on revenue and adjusted EBITDA [1] - There is an expectation of topline deceleration in 2025 [1] Group 3: Competitive Concerns - Management changes at Trade Desk have heightened competitive concerns [1] - The analyst describes the stock as a "show me" story, indicating a need for evidence of revenue growth acceleration through 2026 to become more positive on the stock [1]

Group 1 - The Trade Desk (TTD) experienced a challenging year in 2025, with its stock price declining approximately 70% [1] - Revenue growth rates for TTD in the second and third quarters of 2025 were significantly lower than expected [1] Group 2 - Mosaic Insights focuses on identifying companies with high revenue growth, expanding margins, and durable competitive advantages [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes quality growth, global scope to reduce portfolio volatility, and a business-first analysis approach [1] - The philosophy of high-quality growth is inspired by renowned investors such as Charlie Munger, Peter Lynch, and Terry Smith [1]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets ended the fourth quarter positively, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rising 2.4% and 2.6% respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average led with a 3.6% return [2] - The Russell 1000 Growth Index lagged, increasing only 1.1% as investors shifted from high-growth technology stocks to more defensive sectors [2] - The quarter was marked by significant volatility, influenced by a 43-day government shutdown that affected market transparency and risk appetite [2] Economic and Monetary Policy - Approximately 83% of S&P 500 companies reported positive earnings surprises, indicating a broadening economic recovery beyond the "Magnificent Seven" [4] - The Federal Reserve implemented two 25-basis point cuts, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by year-end, and concluded its quantitative tightening program [4] - The Fed's balance sheet expanded by approximately $100 billion to $6.6 trillion, reflecting a shift from "abundant" to "ample" bank reserves [4] Sector Performance - Ithaka's portfolio underperformed the Russell 1000 Growth Index by 700 basis points, with stock selection detracting 740 basis points from relative performance [6] - Positive relative returns were generated in the Materials and Processing sector, while Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors were significant sources of underperformance [7] - Weakness in Technology was attributed to fears of AI disintermediating software stocks, while Consumer Discretionary faced pressures from consumer spending concerns [7] Top Contributors and Detractors - Top contributors included Intuitive Surgical (26.6% return), Advanced Micro Devices (32.4%), and Alphabet (28.9%), driven by strong earnings and positive investor sentiment [9][10][12] - Major detractors were ServiceNow (-16.8%), Netflix (-21.8%), and Veeva Systems (-25.1%), with concerns over AI impacts and unexpected financial disclosures affecting stock performance [9][15][16] Investment Strategy and Outlook - Ithaka initiated three new positions and eliminated four during the quarter, with a trailing 12-month turnover of 22.1% [17] - The investment approach focuses on long-term wealth creation through concentrated positions in high-quality companies with strong management and favorable market conditions [4][19] - The narrative around AI is shifting towards tangible productivity gains, suggesting that the economic opportunities from AI will continue to expand [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) shares have reached a new 52-week low as investors react to President Trump's proposed tariffs on goods from several European countries, raising concerns about the impact on the company's advertising revenue [1][4]. Company Performance - The Trade Desk reported quarterly results in November with revenue of approximately $739 million, reflecting an 18% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share (EPS) of 45 cents, surpassing consensus expectations. The company guided for fourth-quarter revenue exceeding $840 million [5]. - Despite the positive earnings report, BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich maintained an Underperform rating and reduced the price target from $49 to $40, citing concerns over macroeconomic headwinds from tariffs [6]. Market Conditions - The proposed 10% tariffs on goods from key European countries could negatively affect the margins of consumer and luxury brands that heavily invest in digital advertising, which is crucial for The Trade Desk's business model [3]. - The stock is currently trading 8.5% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 10.2% below its 100-day SMA, indicating bearish momentum. Over the past 12 months, shares have decreased by 72.56% [7]. Analyst Insights - The average price target for The Trade Desk is $65.32, with a consensus rating of Buy, despite a projected 15% decline in earnings [10]. - The stock is trading at a premium P/E multiple of 40.3x, indicating a steep valuation compared to peers, while the growth potential remains strong with a score of 90.67/100 [12]. ETF Exposure - The Trade Desk has significant weight in the SmartETFs Advertising and Marketing Technology ETF (NYSE:MRAD), which could lead to automatic buying or selling of the stock based on ETF inflows or outflows [13].

Industry Overview - The global digital advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2025 to 2030, indicating its attractiveness as a long-term growth market in technology [1]. Company Profiles The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) - TTD operates as a demand-side platform (DSP) in the digital advertising ecosystem, facing macroeconomic volatility that could pressure revenue growth due to reduced programmatic demand [2][4]. - The company is experiencing intense competition from major players like Meta Platforms, Apple, Google, and Amazon, which dominate the ad space with their control over inventory and first-party user data [5]. - TTD is investing in AI across its portfolio, leading to increased capital expenditures and operational costs, with total operating costs rising 17% year over year to $457 million [6]. - Geographic expansion poses complexities and risks, compounded by regulatory changes such as the deprecation of cookies and tightening data privacy laws [7]. - Despite challenges, TTD benefits from a shift towards an open Internet and expects decision-based CTV buying to become the default model, with 85% of clients using its AI-powered Kokai DSP [8]. Magnite, Inc. (MGNI) - MGNI operates as a supply-side platform (SSP) and is significantly benefiting from the connected TV (CTV) trend, with CTV accounting for approximately 45% of its total contribution excluding TAC [9]. - The company has established deep partnerships with major publishers and agency marketplaces, particularly in live sports and SMB advertising, with Netflix and Roku as key partners [11]. - MGNI is enhancing its ClearLine platform, which now has over 30 clients, and is integrating new technologies like the Model Context Protocol (MCP) to automate tasks [12]. - SpringServe, MGNI's CTV ad serving platform, is highlighted as a critical differentiator, especially after being selected by Spotify as its global programmatic partner [13]. - However, MGNI faces competitive pressures and macroeconomic uncertainties that could impact ad budgets, with a raised capex guidance to $80 million for 2025 [14]. Share Performance & Valuation - Over the past month, TTD shares have decreased by 4.8%, while MGNI shares have fallen by 12.5% [17]. - TTD is trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings ratio of 16.73X, compared to MGNI's 13.74X, indicating a higher valuation for TTD [18]. - Analysts have kept their earnings estimates unchanged for both TTD and MGNI over the past 60 days, suggesting stability in expectations [19][21]. - In terms of Zacks Rank, MGNI is currently rated as a better pick with a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), while TTD carries a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [22].

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is anticipated to be a significant year for certain stocks, particularly Nvidia, Nebius Group, and The Trade Desk, which are expected to show strong performance as fourth-quarter results from 2025 are released [1][2]. Nvidia - Nvidia is the largest company by market cap, driven by its dominant position in graphics processing units (GPUs) for artificial intelligence (AI) computing [3]. - The company has reported being sold out of cloud GPUs, indicating sustained demand for its products [4]. - Nvidia's fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings are set to be reported on February 25, with expectations that its fiscal 2027 guidance will exceed current market expectations [6]. Nebius Group - Nebius Group is gaining attention for its services that connect high-end Nvidia GPUs to computing clusters, experiencing significant demand [7]. - The company reported a remarkable 355% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, with an annual run rate (ARR) of $551 million [8]. - Nebius has dramatically increased its 2026 revenue projection, expecting an ARR of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, which could lead to rapid stock appreciation if achieved [8][10]. The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk faced challenges in 2025, being one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 due to issues with its AI-powered ad buying platform and lack of political advertising revenue [11]. - In 2026, the company is expected to resolve its platform issues and avoid difficult year-over-year comparisons, potentially leading to a significant stock increase [12]. - Currently trading at less than 18 times forward earnings, The Trade Desk presents a value opportunity compared to the S&P 500 average of 22.4 times [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Trade Desk Inc. (NASDAQ:TTD) has experienced a significant decline in stock price, with a current trading price of $35.48, reflecting a 2.07% decrease in the session and a 71.50% drop over the past year, prompting long-term shareholders to consider the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [1]. Past Year's Performance - The stock has fallen by 5.24% over the past month and 71.50% over the past year, indicating a challenging performance period for the company [1]. Evaluating Trade Desk P/E in Comparison to Its Peers - The P/E ratio is a critical metric for investors, measuring the current share price against the company's earnings per share (EPS), and is used to assess the company's performance relative to historical data and industry benchmarks [5]. - Trade Desk's P/E ratio is lower than the aggregate P/E of 82.54 for the Media industry, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued despite the potential perception of underperformance compared to peers [6]. Summary of P/E Ratio Insights - While the P/E ratio is a useful tool for evaluating market performance, it should be interpreted cautiously, as a low P/E can indicate undervaluation or weak growth prospects [8]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the P/E ratio alongside other financial metrics, industry trends, and qualitative factors for a comprehensive analysis of the company's financial health [8].

Core Viewpoint - Growth stocks have experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 Growth Index up over 112% since the start of 2023, outperforming the S&P 500 Value Index [1][2] Group 1: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk faced challenges in 2025 due to a slow transition to its AI-powered ad-buying platform, Kokai, which alienated some advertisers [4] - Amazon's entry into the ad space has increased competition, potentially pressuring The Trade Desk's pricing and market share [5] - Despite a drop in stock price, The Trade Desk's digital advertising market is expected to grow at 15% annually through 2030, presenting a buying opportunity [7] - The stock is trading around $36, with a market cap of $17 billion and a forward P/E ratio of 17.4, alongside a projected 17% earnings growth for 2026 [8] Group 2: Fortinet - Fortinet's stock has declined about 33% from its peak, attributed to weak firewall sales and disappointing product updates [9][10] - The company anticipates a 12% year-over-year revenue growth, down from 14% in the previous quarter [10] - Transitioning to software products like SASE and SecOps shows promise, with billings in these areas growing 19% and 33% respectively [12] - The stock is priced around $76, with a forward P/E ratio of 26, indicating potential for future growth as software becomes a larger part of its business [13] Group 3: Marvell Technology - Marvell Technology is crucial in AI data centers, with its networking chips and custom AI accelerators driving growth [14] - Reports of Microsoft considering a rival chipmaker for its Maia chip have raised concerns, but demand for AI accelerators remains strong [15] - Marvell is projected to generate $8.2 billion in revenue this year, targeting $10 billion next year, despite potential revenue impacts from competition [15] - The stock is trading around $80, with a forward P/E ratio of 28.4, and expectations for 22% revenue growth and 27% earnings growth next year [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has launched a new advertising bidding environment called OpenAds, which has gained widespread support from multiple publishing partners, aiming to provide a more direct, credible, and transparent bidding option for publishers and sellers [1] Group 1: Industry Demand - As more advertisers fully adopt programmatic advertising, they are raising their expectations regarding bidding mechanisms, with a growing focus on transparency, visibility, and high-quality signals during the bidding process [1] Group 2: OpenAds Features - OpenAds is designed to meet industry demands by creating a highly credible and transparent bidding environment, promoting a healthier supply chain operation within the advertising technology ecosystem [1] - The initiative aims to benefit all participants in the ecosystem [1]