Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Twilio (TWLO) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues in its upcoming earnings report for the quarter ended December 2024 [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Twilio is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, reflecting an 18.6% increase year-over-year [3]. - Revenues are projected to reach $1.17 billion, which is a 9% increase from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating stability in analysts' assessments [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Twilio is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +3.28% [10]. Zacks Rank and Predictive Power - Twilio currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting a high likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [11]. - A positive Earnings ESP combined with a strong Zacks Rank historically leads to a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Twilio exceeded the expected earnings of $0.87 per share by delivering $1.02, resulting in a surprise of +17.24% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Twilio has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [13]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Internet - Software industry, Rapid7 (RPD) is expected to report earnings of $0.50 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 30.6% [17]. - Rapid7's revenue is projected to be $212.25 million, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the previous year [17]. - The consensus EPS estimate for Rapid7 has been revised 1% lower in the last 30 days, resulting in a negative Earnings ESP of -0.40% [18].

Core Viewpoint - Twilio's stock has surged 148% in the past six months, driven by the growing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential impact on the company's business [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Twilio's stock rally began in October 2024 after the company reported strong results and better-than-expected guidance [2]. - In Q3 2024, Twilio's revenue increased by 10% year-over-year to $1.13 billion, with more customers and increased spending from existing customers, aided by AI [7]. - Preliminary Q4 2024 numbers indicate an 11% year-over-year revenue increase, surpassing guidance expectations [12]. Group 2: Market Potential - Twilio operates in the communications platform-as-a-service (CPaaS) market, which has seen a slowdown in 2023 but is expected to benefit from AI [5][6]. - The total addressable market for Twilio is projected to reach $158 billion by 2028, with $39 billion attributed to AI-based opportunities [8]. - As of Q3 2024, 9,000 of Twilio's 320,000 active customer accounts were building AI applications on its platform, contributing $260 million in trailing-12-month revenue from AI solutions [9]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The number of active customer accounts purchasing add-on products increased by 16% year-over-year in Q3 2024, indicating strong demand for AI solutions [11]. - Twilio's management anticipates a non-GAAP operating margin of 21% to 22%, up from 16% in the previous quarter, suggesting robust bottom-line growth [14]. - The company forecasts cumulative free cash flow of $3 billion over the next three years, a significant increase from the $692 million generated in the past three years [15]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Considerations - Twilio's current price-to-sales ratio is 5.4, and its forward earnings multiple is 32, with earnings expected to jump by 50% in 2024 [16]. - The stock's remarkable rally appears sustainable, making it an attractive option for investors looking for AI-related investments [16].

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, with the aim of buying high and selling higher, capitalizing on established price directions [1] Company Overview: Twilio (TWLO) - Twilio currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the market [3] Price Performance - Over the past week, Twilio shares have increased by 21.7%, significantly outperforming the Zacks Internet - Software industry, which rose by 1.86% [5] - In a longer timeframe, Twilio's shares have risen by 27.96% over the past month, compared to the industry's 2.24% [5] - For the last quarter, Twilio shares increased by 58.85%, and over the past year, they gained 86.34%, while the S&P 500 only moved 3.88% and 24.54%, respectively [6] Trading Volume - The average 20-day trading volume for Twilio is 2,908,114 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [7] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, 4 earnings estimates for Twilio have been revised upwards, while 1 has been revised downwards, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $3.64 to $3.68 [9] - For the next fiscal year, 3 estimates have moved up, with 1 downward revision during the same period [9] Conclusion - Given the strong momentum indicators and positive earnings outlook, Twilio is positioned as a 1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a compelling option for investors seeking short-term gains [11]

Core Viewpoint - Twilio (TWLO) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on rising earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the importance of earnings estimate revisions, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Institutional investors often adjust their valuations based on changes in earnings estimates, leading to significant buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. Twilio's Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, Twilio is expected to earn $3.68 per share, reflecting a 50.2% increase from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Twilio has risen by 32.7%, indicating a positive trend in earnings expectations [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Twilio's upgrade to Zacks Rank 1 places it in the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for price appreciation in the near term [10].

Core Insights - Wall Street analysts' recommendations significantly influence investors' decisions regarding Twilio (TWLO) stock, with an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 2.00 indicating a "Buy" rating [2][4] - The ABR is based on 27 brokerage firms, with 14 "Strong Buy" and 2 "Buy" recommendations, accounting for 51.9% and 7.4% of total recommendations respectively [2] Brokerage Recommendations - The ABR suggests a positive outlook for Twilio, but relying solely on this information may not be advisable due to the historical ineffectiveness of brokerage recommendations in predicting stock price appreciation [4][9] - Brokerage analysts often exhibit a bias towards positive ratings due to their firms' vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of favorable recommendations compared to negative ones [5][9] Zacks Rank Comparison - Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell) and is based on earnings estimate revisions, which have shown a strong correlation with stock price movements [7][10] - The Zacks Rank is more timely and reliable than the ABR, as it reflects the latest earnings estimates and trends, while the ABR may not be up-to-date [11] Twilio's Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Twilio's current year earnings has increased by 8.4% over the past month to $3.68, indicating growing analyst optimism [12] - This increase in earnings estimates has contributed to Twilio receiving a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [13]

Company Performance - Twilio's shares have increased by 28% over the past month, reaching a new 52-week high of $142.31 [1] - The stock has gained 28.6% year-to-date, compared to 30.3% for the Zacks Computer and Technology sector and 44.6% for the Zacks Internet - Software industry [1] Earnings and Revenue Expectations - Twilio has a strong record of positive earnings surprises, not missing earnings consensus estimates in the last four quarters [2] - In the latest earnings report on October 30, 2024, Twilio reported EPS of $1.02, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.87 [2] - For the current fiscal year, Twilio is expected to post earnings of $4.24 per share on revenues of $4.43 billion, with a year-over-year change of 15.27% [3] - For the next fiscal year, earnings are projected to be $4.74 per share on revenues of $4.76 billion, representing a year-over-year change of 7.51% [3] Valuation Metrics - Twilio currently trades at 32.8X current fiscal year EPS estimates, which is above the peer industry average of 31.2X [7] - On a trailing cash flow basis, Twilio trades at 170X compared to the peer group's average of 26.2X [7] - The stock has a PEG ratio of 1.12, indicating it is not in the top echelon from a value perspective [7] Zacks Rank and Style Scores - Twilio has a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) due to rising earnings estimates, which is favorable for investors [8] - The company has a Value Score of F, while its Growth and Momentum Scores are both A, resulting in a VGM Score of B [6] Industry Comparison - The Internet - Software industry is in the top 18% of all industries, providing favorable conditions for both Twilio and its peers [11] - Fortinet, a peer company, has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and has shown strong earnings performance, beating consensus estimates by 23.53% [9][10]

Shares of Twilio (NYSE: TWLO ) surged more than 20% on Friday after the Cloud communications software company submitted a strong outlook for FY 2025 at its investor day, due to consistent success with the adoption of AI products. The software enterpriseI look for high-risk, high-reward situations, mainly in the technology markets. I am an early buyer of Bitcoin and my portfolio mainly focused on companies with asymmetric long-term upside. My top holdings include: Bitcoin, Tesla, Google, Amazon and Nvidia.An ...

Core Viewpoint - Twilio (TWLO) has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates and is well-positioned for future earnings reports, particularly with an average surprise of 19.89% over the last two quarters [1]. Earnings Performance - In the last reported quarter, Twilio achieved earnings of $1.02 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.87 per share, resulting in a surprise of 17.24% [2]. - In the previous quarter, Twilio was expected to report earnings of $0.71 per share but delivered $0.87 per share, leading to a surprise of 22.54% [2]. Earnings Estimates - There has been a favorable shift in earnings estimates for Twilio, with a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [3][6]. - The current Earnings ESP for Twilio is +0.33%, suggesting that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [6]. Predictive Power of Earnings ESP - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [4]. - The Earnings ESP metric compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [5]. Future Outlook - Twilio's next earnings report is expected to be released on February 13, 2025, and the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 indicates a potential for another earnings beat [6].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst upgraded Twilio Inc from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target from $77 to $185 ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings results, indicating a turning point in both narrative and financial performance for the company [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Optimism - The analyst's optimism is based on improved go-to-market strategies, clear product innovation, and strong financial discipline [2] - Anticipated positive revisions to both revenue and earnings, with conservative CY25 guidance of 7-8% growth, and expected acceleration to over 10% in the second half of fiscal 2024 [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth Potential - The company needs to exceed its initial CY25 revenue growth forecast of 7-8% to unlock significant upside, as the stock has surged 89% over the last 12 months [3] - Analyst Day highlighted faster product development and enhanced go-to-market strategies, reinforcing the evolving outlook on Twilio [3] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Improvements to Twilio's Communications portfolio are expected to solidify its leadership in the core CPaaS market, while new CDP-powered Communications products expand its total addressable market [4] - The ongoing turnaround is projected to yield solid upside potential for revenue and free cash flow growth in CY25, making the stock attractive at a 21x EV/FCF multiple for CY26 [4] Group 4: Current Stock Performance - TWLO shares are trading higher by 2.6% at $139.77 [5]

Twilio (TWLO) shares rallied 20.1% in the last trading session to close at $136.23. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 1.7% gain over the past four weeks.The upswing came after the company projected an improvement in its fourth-quarter 2024 performance from its earlier expectations. In its preliminary results for the fourth quarter, Twilio stated that it expects to report an 11% year-over-year in ...