I’m an equity analyst and founder of Goulart’s Restaurant Stocks, a research firm focused on the U.S. restaurant industry — from quick-service and fast casual to fine dining and niche concepts. I lead all thematic research and valuation efforts, applying advanced financial modeling, sector-specific KPIs, and strategic insights to uncover hidden value across public equities. In addition to restaurants, I cover consumer discretionary, food & beverage, casinos & gaming, and IPOs, with a particular focus on mic ...

Core Viewpoint - Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is set to release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 6, 2025, after market close, followed by a conference call at 5:00 PM ET [1] Company Overview - Texas Roadhouse is a growing restaurant company in the casual dining segment, established in 1993, with over 800 restaurants across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten foreign countries [3]

Market Overview - The third quarter of 2025 was strong for Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing by 7.8% and 11.2% respectively from June 30 to the end of the quarter [1] - Year-to-date, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained over 13% and 17% respectively, indicating a robust market performance [1] - The final quarter of the year is historically the strongest for stocks, although it began with uncertainty due to a government shutdown [1] Federal Reserve and Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve announced a quarter-percentage point reduction to the overnight lending rate on September 17, marking the first cut since December 2024 [1] - Investors are speculating on the implications of President Trump's tariff policies and the sustainability of the generative AI trade [1] Top Performers - **Apple**: Increased by 24.1% due to a $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing, favorable rulings in antitrust cases, and positive demand for new products [1] - **Broadcom**: Rose by 19.7% after exceeding earnings expectations and receiving significant AI-related orders, prompting an increase in price target from $290 to $350 [1] - **Nvidia**: Gained 18.1% as AI spending remains strong, supported by positive earnings reports from major tech companies and a $100 billion investment in OpenAI [1] Bottom Performers - **Salesforce**: Decreased by 13.1% due to concerns over revenue impacts from generative AI and disappointing quarterly earnings [1] - **Texas Roadhouse**: Fell by 11.3% as commodity inflation, particularly higher beef prices, raised concerns about cost absorption versus passing costs to consumers [1] - **Honeywell**: Dropped by 9.6% ahead of its split into three publicly traded entities, a situation referred to as "spin purgatory" [1][2]

Summary of Key Points Group 1: Stock Analysis - Apple: The latest iPhone 17 models are considered a bargain, especially with trade-in values and provider incentives [1] - Amazon: Potential for upside if margin expansion continues, particularly in e-commerce and cloud growth [1] - Abbott Laboratories: Valued at approximately 24 times earnings, seen as a high-quality med tech stock worth holding [1] - Broadcom: Recent profit-taking due to exceeding 5% portfolio weighting, but long-term outlook remains positive [1] - Boeing: Newly added to the portfolio, expected to benefit from trade policies and has significant multi-year upside potential [1] - BlackRock: Described as a "bull market stock," with a focus on fast-growing investments [1] - Bristol Myers Squibb: Awaiting results from upcoming studies on its schizophrenia drug, Cobenfy, which could improve sentiment [1] - Capital One: Anticipating share repurchases post-Discover acquisition, with strong management praised [1] - Costco: Long-term outlook remains positive despite recent struggles attributed to market perception [1] - Salesforce: Current levels are not recommended for buying or selling ahead of the Dreamforce conference [1] - CrowdStrike: Ambitious target of $20 billion in annual recurring revenue set, indicating strong management confidence [1] - Cisco Systems: Continued support despite underperformance, with a solid dividend [1] - DuPont: Progressing towards a planned breakup, with Qnity expected to unlock more value [1] - Danaher: Facing headwinds from China but announced a significant buyback [1] - Disney: Shares have stalled, but theme park business remains strong [1] - Dover: Future outlook remains bright despite recent disappointing earnings [1] - Eaton: Potential for increased business from data centers as AI spending rises [1] - GE Vernova: High valuation justified by demand for energy generation in AI infrastructure [1] - Goldman Sachs: Expected revenue growth in investment banking and attractive wealth management business [1] Group 2: Additional Stock Insights - Home Depot: Likely to trim position due to housing market turnaround not meeting expectations [2] - Honeywell International: Shares lagging until split is complete, but value remains [2] - Linde: Continues to deliver for shareholders despite challenging end markets [2] - Eli Lilly: Position maintained due to strong performance and potential game-changing products [2] - Meta Platforms: Dominance in advertising market bolstered by generative AI [2] - Microsoft: Attractive long-term investment, with potential for trimming positions [2] - Nvidia: Partnership with Intel solidifies its leadership in GPUs [2] - Palo Alto Networks: High valuation justified by leadership in cybersecurity [2] - Starbucks: Promising turnaround plan under new CEO [2] - TJX Companies: Strongest earnings performance seen, recognized as a top retail performer [2] - Texas Roadhouse: Stock performance tied to cattle futures, expected surge in share price [2] - Wells Fargo: Positive outlook with increased buybacks and diversification into fee-based businesses [2]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill and Texas Roadhouse have experienced stock declines, with Chipotle down approximately 35% year-to-date and Texas Roadhouse down 5% [2] - Despite negative market sentiment, both companies are expanding and maintaining strong brand loyalty [2] Chipotle Mexican Grill - Chipotle's Q2 revenue increased by 3% year-over-year to around $3.1 billion, but comparable restaurant sales fell by 4% due to a 5% decline in transactions [5] - The company opened 61 new restaurants in Q2, with plans for 315 to 345 openings in 2025, primarily featuring Chipotlanes [6] - Chipotle's stock trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 35, which is higher than many full-service peers, and management has increased buyback authorization by $500 million [7][8] Texas Roadhouse - Texas Roadhouse reported a 12.7% increase in Q2 revenue to about $1.5 billion, with comparable sales rising by 5.8% and earnings per share growing by 4% to $1.86 [9] - The company is experiencing positive traffic across its brands and expects a 5% increase in its total restaurant base for 2025 [10][11] - Texas Roadhouse offers a dividend yield of approximately 1.7%, which adds to its attractiveness [11] Comparative Analysis - Texas Roadhouse shows a more favorable growth profile with rising comparable sales driven by traffic, while Chipotle is guiding for flat comparable sales [13] - The price-to-earnings multiple for Texas Roadhouse is in the mid-20s, significantly lower than Chipotle's mid-30s, making it a more attractive investment at current prices [13] - Both companies are investing in growth, but Texas Roadhouse's disciplined unit growth and positive traffic trends provide a stronger investment case [15]

Group 1 - Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NASDAQ: TXRH) has experienced a 13% decline in stock price over the past three months, making its valuation increasingly attractive as it approaches target prices [1] - The analyst has nearly two decades of experience in the logistics sector and has been involved in stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade, focusing on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ stocks [1] - The analyst's investment strategy includes diversification across various industries and market cap sizes, with holdings in banks, telco, logistics, and hotels [1] Group 2 - The analyst has been trading in the US market for four years and has utilized analyses from Seeking Alpha to compare with the Philippine market [1]

Group 1 - Beef prices are threatening the profitability of steakhouses, leading to a 6% decline in Texas Roadhouse's stock price after earnings report [1] - Texas Roadhouse missed earnings expectations, indicating potential challenges in maintaining margins amidst rising beef costs [1] Group 2 - The focus on sustained profitability is emphasized, highlighting the importance of strong margins, stable free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital as key drivers of investment returns [1]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising 1.6% and the Nasdaq increasing by 2% for the week, driven by speculation on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and strong earnings from Oracle [1] - Oracle's fiscal 2026 first quarter report showed a remarkable 359% increase in remaining performance obligations compared to the previous year, leading to a nearly 36% surge in its stock price [1] - The Nasdaq closed at a record high, while the S&P 500 reached new intra-day highs before finishing slightly lower [1] Economic Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.1% in August, contrary to expectations of a 0.3% increase, boosting investor confidence in a potential interest rate cut [1] - Conversely, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% in August, the largest gain since January, which complicated the outlook for policymakers [1] - Weekly jobless claims reached their highest level in almost four years, indicating potential softness in the U.S. labor market [1] Company Highlights - Boeing was a focus for the investment club, with two purchases made during the week, targeting a price of $275 per share, representing a 27% upside from the previous close [1] - Wells Fargo reported a significant increase in share repurchases, totaling $5.5 billion for the quarter, indicating management's positive outlook on capital levels and earnings [1] - GE Vernova's stock declined by 1.5% following mixed remarks from its CEO regarding onshore wind orders and projected revenue declines in 2026 [1][2] Technology Sector - Nvidia and Broadcom shares rose by 4% and 10% respectively, driven by Oracle's strong cloud backlog, indicating continued demand for AI infrastructure [1] - Apple's refreshed iPhone 17 lineup was met with a lukewarm reception, with shares falling 1.5% on the announcement day and 2.3% for the week, as investors sought more substantial updates on the company's AI strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) is currently ranked in the top 25% of dividend stocks, indicating strong fundamentals and attractive valuation, making it a noteworthy investment opportunity [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On Wednesday, TXRH shares traded as low as $164.41, entering oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 27.0, compared to the average RSI of 52.9 for the dividend stock universe [2]. - The recent annualized dividend for TXRH is $2.72 per share, translating to an annual yield of 1.62% based on the recent share price of $168.12 [2]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - The low RSI reading of 27.0 may suggest that the recent selling pressure is waning, presenting potential buying opportunities for bullish investors [3]. - Investors are encouraged to examine TXRH's dividend history to assess the likelihood of continued dividend payments, as dividends can be unpredictable [3].

Company Performance - Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) missed earnings estimates for the third time in the past four quarters, indicating a potential decline in performance after a previously strong growth period [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on investing in companies with strong qualitative attributes, purchasing them at attractive prices based on fundamentals, and holding them long-term. This strategy includes a concentrated portfolio aimed at minimizing losses while maximizing exposure to high-potential winners [2]