Core Insights - The article discusses the expertise of a specialized equity analyst in the restaurant sector, focusing on various dining segments in the U.S. market [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Goulart's Restaurant Stocks, is dedicated to analyzing restaurant stocks across multiple segments, including QSR, fast casual, casual dining, fine dining, and family dining [1] - Advanced analytical models and specialized valuation techniques are employed to provide detailed insights and actionable strategies for investors [1] Group 2: Industry Engagement - The analyst actively participates in academic and journalistic initiatives, contributing to institutions that promote individual and economic freedom [1] - Previous contributions include columns on monetary policy, financial education, and financial modeling aimed at making these topics accessible to a broader audience [1]

Group 1 - Texas Roadhouse is recognized as a well-managed business in the U.S. with a strong focus on value proposition and customer satisfaction [1] - The investment strategy involves selecting companies with strong qualitative attributes, purchasing them at attractive prices based on fundamentals, and holding them long-term [2] - The analyst manages a concentrated portfolio aimed at minimizing losses while maximizing exposure to high-potential companies [2] Group 2 - The analyst has no current stock or derivative positions in any mentioned companies and does not plan to initiate any within the next 72 hours [3] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company [3] - Seeking Alpha emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that the views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole [4]

Core Insights - Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) stock is currently stabilizing but continues to report profits and enhance its financial performance [1] - The stock price has returned to mid-2024 levels, indicating a period of consolidation [1] Financial Performance - The company emphasizes long-term growth and dividend growth investing, focusing on profitability as a key driver of gains [1] - Important financial metrics include margins, free cash flow stability and growth, and returns on invested capital [1] Investment Strategy - The company seeks undervalued stocks and high-quality dividend-growing companies to reinvest cash [1] - Continuous research into high-quality companies is a priority for identifying potential investment opportunities [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for 2024 reached nearly $5.4 billion, with average unit volume exceeding $8 million for the first time in history, reflecting strong performance across all brands [6][7] - The company reported a 23.5% revenue growth for Q4 2024, driven by a 6.6% increase in comparable average unit volume and 13.7% store week growth [22] - Diluted earnings per share increased by 60.1% to $1.73, with restaurant margin dollars increasing by 37.3% to $243 million [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store sales increased by 8.5% for the year, with traffic growth of 4.4% [15] - Weekly sales averaged $159,000 at Texas Roadhouse, $119,000 at Bubba's 33, and $71,000 at Jaggers, indicating strong performance across all brands [16] - Restaurant margin as a percentage of total sales increased by 172 basis points to 17% [26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable sales for Q4 increased by 7.7%, driven by 4.9% traffic growth and a 2.8% increase in average check [24] - The company experienced a 2.9% increase in comparable sales for the first seven weeks of Q1 2025, despite weather impacts [24][43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open approximately 30 company-owned restaurants across all brands in 2025, with an additional focus on franchise development [9][10] - A 1.4% menu price increase is expected in Q2 2025 to maintain everyday value, which is a competitive advantage [11] - The company is focused on technology initiatives, including the conversion to a digital kitchen and upgrades to the guest management system [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the business despite recent performance irregularities due to external factors [39][40] - The company anticipates continued labor inflation of 4% to 5% and commodity inflation of 3% to 4% for 2025 [17][18] - Management remains optimistic about the company's ability to deliver high-level hospitality and maintain strong guest relationships [33][100] Other Important Information - The company celebrated its 20-year anniversary as a public company and opened its 750th systemwide restaurant in 2024 [7] - The company has a strong balance sheet with over $245 million in cash and generated over $750 million in cash flow from operations [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide context on the quarter-to-date trend in Q1? - Management noted that restaurants are fully staffed and experienced strong sales during Valentine's week, indicating confidence in underlying business fundamentals despite some irregular performance [39][40] Question: How much visibility do you have on costs this year regarding inflation? - Management indicated that the majority of the inflation increase is driven by beef, with about 40% of the overall basket locked for the full year, providing some clarity on costs [49][50] Question: What are the margin drivers expected this year? - Management expects to see leverage on operating costs due to moderating costs, with labor inflation projected at 4% to 5% [55][57] Question: Can you clarify the components of comparable sales? - Management confirmed that the 7.7% sales growth included 4.9% traffic growth and a 2.8% increase in check, with some negative mix due to alcohol sales [63] Question: How is the company staying top of mind for consumers? - Management highlighted local store marketing efforts, early dine features, and value-driven promotions as key strategies to maintain consumer engagement [75][76] Question: What is the outlook for new unit openings? - Management confirmed a cautious approach to new openings, focusing on quality over quantity, with a target of 30 new restaurants [90][91] Question: What are the expectations for commodity inflation in 2025? - Management expects commodity inflation to remain in the 3% to 4% range, with ongoing supply issues affecting costs [18][135]

Financial Performance - Texas Roadhouse reported $1.44 billion in revenue for the quarter ended December 2024, a year-over-year increase of 23.5% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $1.73, compared to $1.08 a year ago, indicating significant growth [1] - The reported revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 billion, resulting in a surprise of +1.60% [1] - The company delivered an EPS surprise of +4.22%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $1.66 [1] Key Metrics - Comparable restaurant sales growth for company restaurants was 7.7%, slightly above the 7.5% average estimate [4] - U.S. franchise-owned restaurants saw a comparable sales growth of 6.3%, compared to the 6.7% average estimate [4] - The total number of company restaurants remained at 784, matching the average estimate [4] - The company opened 9 new restaurants, exceeding the average estimate of 7 [4] - Franchise royalties and fees revenue was reported at $9.13 million, surpassing the average estimate of $8.88 million, representing a year-over-year change of +30.5% [4] - Restaurant and other sales revenue was $1.43 billion, compared to the $1.41 billion average estimate, reflecting a year-over-year change of +23.5% [4] Stock Performance - Shares of Texas Roadhouse have returned -3.3% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite increased by +2.6% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance against the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Texas Roadhouse reported quarterly earnings of $1.73 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66 per share, and showing a significant increase from $1.08 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 4.22% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $1.44 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.60% and up from $1.16 billion year-over-year [2] Earnings Performance - Over the last four quarters, Texas Roadhouse has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times, indicating a strong performance trend [2] - The company had a previous quarter expectation of $1.33 per share but reported $1.26, resulting in a surprise of -5.26% [1][2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Texas Roadhouse shares have declined approximately 3.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 4.5% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is favorable, with current consensus EPS estimates of $2.01 for the coming quarter and $7.23 for the current fiscal year [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Restaurants industry, to which Texas Roadhouse belongs, is currently ranked in the top 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a positive industry outlook [8] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Core Insights - Texas Roadhouse reported a strong quarterly performance with a revenue increase of 23.5% to $1.44 billion and earnings per share (EPS) rising 60.1% to $1.73, driven by strategic expansions and effective management despite inflationary pressures [2][6]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $1.44 billion, up from $1.16 billion in Q4 2023, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 23.5% [3][6]. - Net income rose by 59.9% to $115.8 million, compared to $72.4 million in the previous year [3][6]. - Comparable restaurant sales increased by 7.7%, although this was a decline from the previous year's 9.9% [3][7]. - Restaurant margins improved to 17.0% from 15.3% the previous year, attributed to higher sales volumes and improved labor productivity [7]. Strategic Developments - The company opened 31 company-run and 14 franchise locations in 2024, with plans to acquire 13 franchise restaurants in early 2025 [4][8]. - A strategic menu price increase of 1.4% is planned for early April 2025 to manage costs while maintaining competitiveness [9]. - Capital expenditures are projected at approximately $400 million, focusing on restaurant development and operational improvements [11]. Operational Efficiency - Income from operations increased by 65.4% to $138.6 million, indicating effective management and operational efficiencies [6]. - The company has implemented a competitive pricing strategy to combat rising inflation while maintaining quality standards [5]. Future Outlook - Management is optimistic about 2025, expecting comparable sales growth and a store week growth of approximately 5% [10]. - Inflationary pressures are anticipated, with commodity cost inflation forecasted between 3% and 4% and labor inflation between 4% and 5% [11].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $1,437.9 million, a 23.5% increase from $1,164.4 million in Q4 2023[2] - Net income for Q4 2024 reached $115.8 million, up 59.9% from $72.4 million in Q4 2023[2] - Basic net income per common share attributable to Texas Roadhouse, Inc. was $1.74 for Q4 2024, compared to $1.08 for Q4 2023[17] - Net cash provided by operating activities for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, was $753.6 million, a 33.4% increase from $565.0 million in the previous year[21] - Total assets grew to $3,190.8 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to $2,793.4 million at the end of 2023[19] Sales and Restaurant Performance - Comparable restaurant sales increased by 7.7% at company restaurants and 6.3% at domestic franchise restaurants[3] - Average unit volume for Texas Roadhouse restaurants reached $2,211, a 17.1% increase from $1,888[23] - Restaurant and other sales increased to $1,428,780, a 23.5% rise compared to $1,157,362 in the previous year[23] - Comparable restaurant sales for Texas Roadhouse were 7.8%, down from 10.2% in the prior year[23] - Average weekly sales at company restaurants were $153,867, with to-go sales accounting for $20,067, compared to $141,653 and $17,793 respectively in the prior year[3] Restaurant Expansion - The company opened nine new company restaurants and five franchise restaurants during the fourth quarter[3] - The company opened 9 new restaurants in Q4 2024, compared to 12 in Q4 2023[26] - Total company restaurants increased to 666, up by 31 from 635 in the previous year[26] - Franchise restaurants increased to 118, up by 12 from 106 in the previous year[26] - The company plans to continue expanding its restaurant footprint, focusing on both domestic and international markets[26] Costs and Expenses - Restaurant margin for Q4 2024 was $242.6 million, representing 17.0% of restaurant and other sales, compared to 15.3% in Q4 2023[22] - The company reported a restaurant operating cost of $1,299.4 million for the fiscal year 2024, compared to $1,080.6 million in 2023[17] - Food and beverage costs as a percentage of sales decreased to 33.5%, down 65 basis points from 34.2%[23] - Labor costs remained stable at 33.0%, a slight decrease of 10 basis points from 33.1%[23] - Capital expenditures for property and equipment in the fiscal year 2024 were $354.3 million, slightly higher than $347.0 million in 2023[21] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company expects commodity cost inflation of 3% to 4% and comparable restaurant sales growth of 8.5% at company restaurants[6] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are projected to be approximately $400 million[13] Shareholder Returns - The quarterly cash dividend was increased by 11% to $0.68 per share, payable on April 1, 2025[8] - The company declared cash dividends of $0.61 per share in Q4 2024, up from $0.55 per share in Q4 2023[17] - A stock repurchase program of up to $500 million was approved, replacing the previous program of $300 million[9]

Core Viewpoint - Texas Roadhouse, Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, with significant increases in revenue, net income, and earnings per share compared to the previous year [2][4]. Financial Results - Total revenue for Q4 2024 was $1,437.9 million, a 23.5% increase from $1,164.4 million in Q4 2023 [2]. - For the fiscal year 2024, total revenue reached $5,373.3 million, up 16.0% from $4,631.7 million in 2023 [2]. - Net income for Q4 2024 was $115.8 million, a 59.9% increase from $72.4 million in Q4 2023 [2]. - Diluted earnings per share for Q4 2024 were $1.73, a 60.1% increase from $1.08 in Q4 2023 [2]. Comparable Restaurant Sales - Comparable restaurant sales increased by 7.7% at company restaurants and 6.3% at domestic franchise restaurants for Q4 2024 [3]. - Average weekly sales at company restaurants were $153,867, with to-go sales contributing $20,067, compared to $141,653 and $17,793 respectively in the prior year [3]. Restaurant Margin and Costs - Restaurant margin dollars increased by 37.3% to $242.6 million from $176.7 million in the prior year, with restaurant margin as a percentage of sales rising to 17.0% from 15.3% [3]. - Labor inflation was reported at 5.0%, while commodity inflation was at 0.3% [3]. Capital Allocation and Growth - The company opened nine new company restaurants and five franchise restaurants during the year [3]. - Capital expenditures for the year totaled $107.8 million, with dividends of $40.7 million and stock repurchases of $35.1 million [3]. Franchise Acquisition - On the first day of the 2025 fiscal year, Texas Roadhouse completed the acquisition of 13 domestic franchise restaurants for approximately $78 million [5]. 2025 Outlook - For the first seven weeks of Q1 2025, comparable restaurant sales increased by 2.9% compared to the same period in 2024 [6]. - The company plans to implement a menu price increase of approximately 1.4% in early April 2025 [6]. - Commodity cost inflation is expected to be between 3% to 4% for 2025 [6]. Dividend and Stock Repurchase - The Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.68 per share, representing an 11% increase from the previous year [6]. - A new stock repurchase program was authorized for up to $500 million, replacing the previous program of $300 million [7].

Core Viewpoint - Growth investors are attracted to stocks with above-average financial growth, but identifying stocks that can sustain this growth is challenging [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) is currently recommended as a growth stock due to its favorable Growth Score and top Zacks Rank [2] - The company has a historical EPS growth rate of 45.3%, with projected EPS growth of 13% this year, surpassing the industry average of 12.5% [4] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Texas Roadhouse's year-over-year cash flow growth is 12.5%, higher than the industry average of 11.5% [5] - The company's annualized cash flow growth rate over the past 3-5 years is 12%, compared to the industry average of 5.1% [6] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for Texas Roadhouse, with a 0.1% increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year over the past month [7] - The company has earned a Growth Score of B and carries a Zacks Rank 2, indicating it is a solid choice for growth investors [9]