UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM10-Q (Mark One) ☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 | Commission File Number | Exact Name of Registrant as Specified in its Charter | Principal Executive Office Address | | | Telephone Number | State of Incorporation | I.R.S. Employer Identif ...

Group 1 - United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UAL) shares increased by 3.1% to $69.03 following better-than-expected first-quarter earnings results [1] - The airline reported stable forward bookings and provided two full-year outlooks, describing the economy as "impossible to predict" [1] - Despite the recent gains, UAL's stock has decreased approximately 30% year-to-date and is significantly lower than its January 22 record high of $116 [1] Group 2 - In the options market, there has been a notable increase in activity with 28,000 calls and 24,000 puts exchanged, which is four times the typical volume [2] - The most popular options contracts are the April 70 call and the 68 call, with new positions being opened in the latter [2] Group 3 - The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 95 out of 100, indicating that UAL has consistently outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [3]

Investors often turn to recommendations made by Wall Street analysts before making a Buy, Sell, or Hold decision about a stock. While media reports about rating changes by these brokerage-firm employed (or sell-side) analysts often affect a stock's price, do they really matter?Before we discuss the reliability of brokerage recommendations and how to use them to your advantage, let's see what these Wall Street heavyweights think about United Airlines (UAL) .United currently has an average brokerage recommend ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, United Airlines reported earnings per share of $0.91, exceeding expectations and within guidance [44] - The pre-tax margin was 3%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, marking the strongest first quarter in the last five years [44] - The company expects full-year earnings per share to range between $7 and $9, despite a potential recession scenario [50][51] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q1 revenue increased by 5.4% to a record $13.2 billion, with a slight increase in total revenue passenger miles [28] - Domestic main cabin revenue per available seat mile (RASM) decreased by 5% year-over-year, while premium cabin unit revenues rose by mid-single digits [29][31] - Loyalty revenue grew by 9% to $1.5 billion, indicating strong co-brand spending [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International Polaris RASM increased by 8%, while international premium plus RASM rose over 5% [31] - U.S. origin demand has compensated for declines in non-U.S. origin passenger volumes, with European and Canadian origin passenger volumes down 6% and 9% year-over-year, respectively [40] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to win brand-loyal customers, which is seen as a key competitive advantage, especially during economic downturns [15][21] - Investments in new clubs, advanced Wi-Fi technology, and enhanced customer experience are central to the strategy [12][26] - The focus remains on operational excellence and maintaining a strong competitive position in the market [23][21] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges a softer macroeconomic environment impacting travel demand but emphasizes resilience due to brand loyalty [7][9] - The company is prepared for potential economic downturns and has adjusted capacity and revenue management strategies accordingly [14][50] - There is cautious optimism regarding the ability to maintain profitability even in a recession [50][56] Other Important Information - The company ended Q1 with $18.3 billion in liquidity and generated over $2 billion in free cash flow [52] - United Airlines has been proactive in share repurchases, buying back approximately 5.6 million shares in 2025 at an average price of $80 [54] - The company has received credit rating upgrades, reflecting improved financial health [54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Internal forecast for 2026 under recessionary scenario - Management believes margins would be higher in a normalized economy, emphasizing the structural changes in the industry [61][70] Question: Balancing buybacks and deleveraging - The company is focused on optimizing the cost of capital and ensuring buybacks are funded by free cash flow while continuing to deleverage [72][76] Question: Cost performance and additional levers - Management is proud of Q1 cost performance and is focused on building a cost-efficient culture, with expectations for better CASMX for the full year [80][82] Question: Revenue production in recessionary scenario - A five-point reduction in revenue expectations has been modeled, with a potential additional five-point reduction if a recession occurs [85][88] Question: Eliminating spill traffic - The strategy is to build a great airline for loyal customers, with tactical adjustments made to reduce spill traffic [92][94] Question: EPS performance in the current environment - The full-year guidance assumes current booking trends hold steady, with no contingency left in the guidance [97][105] Question: Margin advantage and market share - Management does not see a tension between taking market share and maintaining margins, as brand loyalty leads to higher margins [110][112] Question: International market outlook - The company remains bullish on international markets, citing structural supply constraints that will favor international performance [134][138]

United Airlines’ (UAL) first-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 91 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the Chicago-based airline reported a loss of 15 cents per share. The earnings beat and the year-over-year bottom-line improvement, despite the tariff-induced uncertainties, pleased investors.  Management stated that this was the best first-quarter financial performance of UAL in five years. This resulted in the sto ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Airlines are adjusting their capacity and operations in response to declining demand, particularly in the domestic leisure segment, while focusing on premium offerings for wealthier travelers. Group 1: Capacity Adjustments - United Airlines will reduce its scheduled domestic capacity by 4 percentage points starting in Q3, continuing this approach into Q4 2025 [1] - United will retire 21 aircraft earlier than previously planned [1] - American Airlines and Delta Air Lines also reported softness in the domestic leisure segment and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty [3] Group 2: Revenue Trends - United Airlines experienced a 3.9% decline in passenger revenue per available seat mile (PRASM) for domestic flights, while international flights saw a 5.2% increase [2] - Delta Air Lines noted resilience in premium and international businesses, but softness in domestic and main cabin sectors [3] Group 3: Market Conditions - Airlines are focusing on amenities for wealthier leisure travelers as other segments reduce spending due to economic uncertainty [4] - Factors affecting bookings include the trade war, government layoffs, fewer international visitors, and weaker demand for domestic coach seats from price-sensitive consumers [5]

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines is reducing its domestic flights by approximately 4% due to decreased demand and is forecasting lower-than-expected profits for the current quarter, with potential risks to its full-year outlook if the US economy enters a recession [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported stable forward bookings, with premium cabin bookings up 17% and international bookings up 5% year-over-year [2]. - United estimates that an economic recession could result in a 5-percentage-point decline in revenue, leading to an adjusted profit of $7 to $9 per share for the full year [2]. - In January, United had projected an adjusted profit of $11.50 to $13.50 per share for 2025, which it still expects to achieve if demand remains stable and fuel prices do not rise significantly [3][6]. Market Context - The ongoing trade war has negatively impacted global markets, affecting business and consumer confidence, which in turn has clouded the airline industry's outlook [5]. - Airline fares experienced a significant decline of 5.3% in March compared to the previous month, marking the steepest drop since September 2021 [5]. - United's shares have decreased by 31% this year and are down 43% from their 52-week high, with a 45% increase in short interest since mid-February, indicating bearish investor sentiment [6].

Tuesday, April 15, 2025Market activity started off with some momentum today, swinging from negative to positive right around the opening bell and peaking around 45 minutes into the session, but then unwinding slowly throughout the day and closing right around breakeven: the Dow lost -155 points, -0.38%, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were down 9 and 8 points, respectively. The Russell 2000 finished the day up +1 point.A pause in the chaotic ping-pong game of global tariffs that began two weeks ago tomorrow has ...

United Airlines (UAL) reported $13.21 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.4%. EPS of $0.91 for the same period compares to -$0.15 a year ago.The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.22 billion, representing a surprise of -0.08%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +21.33%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.75.While investors scrutinize revenue and earnings changes year-over-year and how they compare with Wal ...

分组1 - United Airlines reported quarterly earnings of $0.91 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.75 per share, compared to a loss of $0.15 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 21.33% [1] - The company posted revenues of $13.21 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.08%, and showing an increase from $12.54 billion year-over-year [2] - United Airlines has surpassed consensus EPS estimates in all four of the last quarters and has topped consensus revenue estimates two times during the same period [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed, losing about 32.4% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's decline of 8.1% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $4.25 on revenues of $15.65 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $10.77 on revenues of $59.13 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Transportation - Airline is currently in the bottom 21% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] 分组3 - The estimate revisions trend for United Airlines is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting expected underperformance in the near future [6] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]