证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年08月25日 华源晨会精粹 20250825 固定收益 利差调整后，或存补涨机会——信用分析周报：本周不同行业不同评级的 信用利差大多有不超过 5BP 的调整，少数行业信用利差有所压缩。城投债方面，本 周不同期限城投债信用利差均有所调整。产业债方面，本周不同期限和评级的产业 债大多有所调整，3Y 私募产业债信用利差表现较好，利差有所压缩。银行资本债方 面，本周 3Y 银行二永债信用利差有明显压缩，其余期限利差大多小幅走扩。我们持 续看下半年 10Y 国债收益率 1.6%-1.8%，当前 10Y 国债接近 1.8%，性价比突出。 2025 年债市没有趋势性行情，低利率时代的债券震荡市里投资非常艰难，需要左侧 把握波段机会。待到股市调整之时，债券收益率可能快速下行，右侧投资难度亦不 低。当前，我们明确看多债市，未来半年预计 10Y 国债收益率重回 1.65%左右，5Y 国股二级资本债到 1.9%以下，理财规模增长对中短信用债构成利好。 风险提示：数据口径偏差风险、信用风险事件扰 ...

2025.08. 25 本文字数：473，阅读时长大约1分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 8月25日，春秋航空官方微博发布声明称，公司已关注到网络上出现大量"将夏季客舱内出现的正常 冷凝水汽现象与客舱销售强行关联"的不实信息。 声明称，经公司核实：视频中展示的是夏季客舱内的潮湿空气和空调制造的干冷空气相遇后，形成正 常的冷凝水汽现象。飞机起飞后，冷凝水汽现象就会很快消失。该现象是常见的物理反应。 春秋航空表示，公司已于2023年8月在相关媒体回复并辟谣，这几年也通过官方各类途径向旅客进行 了科普。公司严格按照客舱要求设定，确保客舱温度保持在舒适范围内，不存在故意调低客舱温度售 卖毛毯的情况。 声明称，公司已对相关网络谣言全面取证，并敦促发布不实信息的媒体及网络用户立即删除相关内 容。对于任何恶意损害公司商誉的行为，春秋航空将依法采取诉讼等法律途径，向恶意造谣、传谣的 相关主体追究法律责任。 微信编辑 | 格蕾丝 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianji ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持航空油运快递增持评级。1)航空：暑运客流高峰开始回 落，预计9 月中旬公商务恢复。提示短期需求波动不改长逻辑，"反内卷"将三重受益。2)快递：多地或 将跟进提价，监管力度决定持续性，反内卷将保障良性竞争。3)油运：油运运价上行关注旺季，风险收 益比具吸引力。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 航空：高客座率倒逼票价回升，飞机订购不改规划低增 暑运临近收官，上周客流仍维持高位，高客座率倒逼裸票价回升并高于2024年同期低基数。该行预计 2025年暑运客流同比增超3%，客座率同比提升约1pct，公商需求意外走弱致国内含油票价同比降约4- 5%。 2)单票收入：7月行业单票收入同比-5.3%，圆通/韵达/顺丰同比-7.2%/-3.5%/-14%，降幅收窄反映"反内 卷"有效缓和竞争压力。7月上旬国家邮政局强调将旗帜鲜明反对"内卷式"竞争;随后义乌底价率先要求 提升约0.2元;8月广东多地跟进上调底价约0.4元;该行预计后续多地将跟进提价。相较于2021年快递反内 卷，此次监管力度超预期。短期有利于缓和竞争压力，下半年有望开启盈利修复;后续邮管局监管力度 或决定提价持续性与未来盈利弹 ...

60年前，钢铁雄鹰降落拉萨，打破了高原空中禁区的神话。14年前，作为世界首家以高原为基地的航空 公司，西藏航空完成首航。从此，在繁忙的雪域高原航线网络中，身披五彩哈达的西藏航空飞机格外醒 目。 每天深夜，西藏航空的飞机整齐停放在拉萨贡嘎机场的机坪上，成为拉萨机场一道独特的风景线。4 时，机务人员准时来到机坪，为清晨出港的航班进行航前准备。7时左右，在拉萨机场塔台人员的指挥 下，由西藏航空执飞的第一个航班起飞，飞向目的地。 从2012年6月西藏航空开通拉萨贡嘎机场夜航至今，西藏航空成为航班每天最早从拉萨机场起飞、每天 最晚抵达拉萨机场的航空公司。从首航当年在拉萨机场停放过夜飞机，到如今过夜飞机达到12架，西藏 航空13年来不断提高安全保障水平，肩负起开辟雪域高原"空中快线"的重要使命。 截至2025年7月，西藏航空共执飞航线105条，航点覆盖西藏区内和24个省会与直辖市、14个援藏省份、 港澳台等重点区域，航点总数达到62个。依托香港机场国际中转枢纽的特殊地位，香港航线的开通让西 藏人民搭乘西藏航空航班飞得更远，也让西藏离世界越来越近。 缔造高原机务维修尖兵 "我们执飞着全世界难度最大的航线，其中高高原航线占到 ...

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者路泞 报道：科技昌明，社会进步，复杂且高效运转的航空运输体系 里，安全与效率宛如紧密交织的经纬线，共同编织起航空业平稳前行的坚实网络，二者相辅相成，缺一 不可。 银川机场作为西北地区关键的航空枢纽，镶嵌在祖国广袤的大西北版图之上，肩负着推动区域航空事业 蓬勃发展的重任。一直以来，银川机场坚定不移地秉持"安全第一、保障有力、协同高效"的运行理念， 积极投身于运行效能提升专项行动。通过深层次机制融合、关键资源拓展与全域生态共治等一系列行之 有效的举措，机场的运行效率得以大幅提升，安全裕度也进一步增强，为广大旅客精心架设起一条更加 可靠、高效的空中通途。 机制深融——畅通运行的"智慧中枢" 银川机场以高瞻远瞩的系统思维为导向，大力推进运行管理体制改革，精心建立并持续深化运管委、机 管委、外管委"三委"协同运行机制。这一创新机制的建立，犹如构建起一座四通八达的交通枢纽，使机 场内部各部门以及外部相关单位之间实现了横向联动、纵向贯通，形成了一个有机统一的运行治理体 系。 运管委充分发挥机制协同的强大凝聚力，以提升航班放行正常性和运行效率为核心目标，精心构建了涵 盖空地协同放行、干支协同运 ...

板块市场回顾 本周（8/16-8/22）交运指数上涨 1.7%，沪深 300 指数上涨 4.2%，跑输大盘 2.5%，排名 21/29。交运子板块中快递板 块涨幅最大(+4.4%)，铁路板块跌幅最大(-0.1%)。 行业观点 快递：7 月顺丰快递业务量增速达 34%，在各快递公司中领跑。上周（8 月 11 日-8 月 17 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 35.23 亿件，环比-0.06%，同比+11.81%；累计投递量约 35.11 亿件，环比-0.09%，同比+15.11%。2025 年 7 月，顺丰、 韵达、圆通、申通快递业务量同比分别+33.7%、+7.6%、+20.8%、+11.9%，市场份额分别为 8.4%、13.2%、15.8%、13.3%, 环比分别-0.3pct、+0.3pct、+0.2pct、+0.4pct。"反内卷"背景下，多个产粮区已提价，叠加行业旺季将来临，预 计快递单票价格有望提升。考虑估值性价比、经营韧性、股东回报提升等，推荐顺丰控股。 物流：危化品水运价格企稳回升，发力智慧物流推荐海晨股份。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 4024 点，同比 -10.3%，环比持平。上周液体化 ...

今年第13号台风"剑鱼"（强热带风暴级），8月23日17时中心位于三亚市偏东方向约550公 里的海面上， 预计将于24日下午到傍晚在三亚登陆（强台风级） ，之后趋向越南中北部沿 海。 三亚市防灾减灾救灾和安全生产委员会决定于8月23日18时将防汛防风Ⅲ级应急响应提升至 防汛防风Ⅱ级应急响应。 来源：长安街知事 8月23日晚，海南省三亚市旅游和文化广电体育局发布消息，受台风天气影响，为确保市民游 客安全，全市各旅游景区、体育馆、图书馆、博物馆、群艺馆等场所已于当日20时前全面暂 停营业。 三亚市气象台8月23日20时15分变更台风黄色预警信号为台风橙色预警信号：未来24小时， 三亚市沿海和陆地风力将逐渐增大，平均风力将达10-11级，阵风12-14级，并伴有强降水 和强雷电，请有关单位和人员继续做好防范工作， 建议各级各类学校停课 。 据三亚凤凰国际机场消息， 8月24日10时起，三亚机场暂停航班起降，后续航班取消 。 农业农村部、中国气象局8月23日联合发布农田渍涝害和风灾风险提示：预计8月23日夜间至 25日，受台风"剑鱼"影响，广东西南部、广西南部和海南岛有大到暴雨，其中海南岛部分地 区、广西南部沿海有大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Civil Aviation Administration of China is enhancing safety regulation and incident investigation capabilities in the aviation industry through simulated exercises, specifically focusing on tail strikes and ground collisions [1][2]. Group 1: Simulation Exercise Overview - On August 19, the Shanghai Regulatory Bureau organized a simulation exercise with Golden Eagle Airlines to improve incident investigation capabilities [1]. - The exercise simulated emergency scenarios involving a "B737 aircraft experiencing a tail strike during landing" and "a ground collision during maintenance" [2]. - The exercise aimed to test the airline's response, evidence collection, cause analysis, risk assessment, and safety recommendations [2]. Group 2: Performance Evaluation - The simulation involved a team of professionals from flight, maintenance, and operations, who followed a standardized process of "reporting—assessment—response—review" [2]. - Key parameters from the flight data recorder (FDR) were analyzed to form preliminary technical judgments [2]. - The Shanghai Regulatory Bureau observed the coordination among various departments during the incident response, focusing on information transfer efficiency and risk assessment [2]. Group 3: Future Improvements - Golden Eagle Airlines acknowledged the exercise as a platform for practical learning and improvement, planning to enhance their incident investigation manual and cross-departmental training based on feedback from the regulatory bureau [3].

Core Insights - The Eastern Airport Group has reported significant growth in passenger and cargo throughput, aligning with Jiangsu Province's modernization goals [1][6] - The group has successfully expanded its international flight network, enhancing connectivity and service quality [5][6] Passenger Traffic Growth - From January to July, the passenger throughput reached 29.22 million, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing the national average [3][6] - Notable daily records were set, including over 170,000 passengers on July 25 and surpassing 30 million cumulative passengers by August 5, 2024, ten days ahead of schedule [3][6] - All seven airports under the group reported double-digit growth in passenger numbers, with Nanjing Airport achieving record high flight execution and seat occupancy rates [3][6] Cargo Operations Enhancement - Cargo throughput increased by 15.3% year-on-year, totaling 300,000 tons from January to July [6][8] - Huai'an Airport saw a remarkable 72.6% increase in cargo throughput, while other airports also achieved double-digit growth [6][8] - New international cargo routes have been established, including flights to Mexico City and Seoul, enhancing the global reach of "Made in China" products [6][8] Infrastructure Development - The Eastern Airport Group is accelerating infrastructure projects to enhance hub capabilities and service efficiency [8][10] - Key projects include the third phase of Nanjing Airport, expansion of Huai'an Airport, and upgrades at several other airports, all progressing as planned [8][10] - These developments aim to improve operational efficiency and meet the growing demand for regional air transport [10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Express Delivery Industry**: Significant progress in anti-involution, with Guangdong leading price increases, followed by other provinces. Companies to watch include Shentong, YTO, Yunda, Zhongtong, and Jitu Express for their potential in emerging markets [3][3][3]. - **Aviation Industry**: Stocks showed unusual activity due to industry self-discipline notifications. Current market conditions are at a bottom, suggesting potential for recovery. Recommended stocks include major Hong Kong airlines and Huaxia Airlines in A-shares, along with Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines [4][4][4]. - **Coking Coal Market**: Prices are expected to rise significantly, benefiting companies like Jiayou International. Recovery in the African market, particularly with Zijin Mining's Kamoa mine, will support its operations [5][5][5]. - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical product price index (CCPI) is at 4,034 points, with a slight decline recently. However, a recovery is anticipated in Q4 2023 to Q1 2024. Key companies include Wanhua Chemical and Satellite Chemical, with the latter showing a low valuation despite a solid performance [6][6][6]. - **Refrigerant Market**: Prices are on the rise due to limited supply, enhancing manufacturers' pricing power. Companies like Juhua and Sanmei are expected to see significant growth potential [8][8][8]. - **Palm Oil Market**: Prices have increased, benefiting Zanyu Technology's operations in Indonesia, with production expected to double in the second half of the year [9][9][9]. - **Agricultural Chemicals**: Strong demand is noted, particularly for glyphosate, with prices rising significantly. Companies like Sinochem and Xingfa Group are highlighted for their growth potential [11][11][11]. - **Copper Industry**: Current valuations suggest significant upside potential for Jiangxi Copper and China Nonferrous Mining, with both companies positioned for recovery [14][14][14]. Company-Specific Insights - **China Shenhua**: Plans to acquire high-quality assets from the State Energy Group, expected to enhance asset scale and profitability. The acquisition includes multiple core assets and is projected to significantly boost net assets and profits [16][16][16]. - **Wanhua Chemical**: Reported a net profit of 3.04 billion yuan in Q2, exceeding expectations, with improvements in TDI gross margins and overall business performance [6][6][6]. - **Jiayou International**: Anticipated profit growth in coking coal trade due to rising market prices and recovery in African operations [5][5][5]. - **Zanyu Technology**: Expected profit increase from its Indonesian base, with production capacity projected to double [10][10][10]. Additional Considerations - **Market Sentiment**: The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3,700 points, indicating a potential slow bull market, particularly in cyclical stocks like express delivery, aviation, and coking coal [2][2][2]. - **Policy Impact**: Anti-involution policies and other regulatory measures are expected to support price recovery in various sectors, particularly in chemicals and coal [12][12][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on high-dividend coal companies and turnaround potential in coking companies under current market conditions [19][19][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential investment opportunities.