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US Foods Holding: Fairly Valued But Lacks An Upside (NYSE:USFD)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-12 09:26
Another investment idea worked great —in the first article about US Foods Holding, I predicted a drop in stocks based on a reassessment of investors' expectations for future financial results. My thesis was that investorsHi there! I’m Narek, and I’ve been in the investment world for over six years. I started out as an equity analyst at European banks, digging into reports and learning how to spot value in the markets. I’ve worked across sectors — from telecom to industry — and found that behind every financ ...
US Foods Holding: Fairly Valued But Lacks An Upside (Rating Upgrade)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-11-12 09:26
Core Insights - The article discusses a successful investment idea regarding US Foods Holding, predicting a decline in stock prices due to a reassessment of investor expectations for future financial results [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - The analysis indicates that investors are likely to adjust their expectations based on the company's future financial performance [1] - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying stories behind financial statements to identify potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over six years of experience in the investment sector, with a background in equity analysis across various industries [1] - The educational background includes a bachelor's degree in Antwerp, a master's at KU Leuven, and an MBA in Finance from Vlerick, providing a strong theoretical and practical foundation for investment analysis [1]
US Foods(USFD) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-11-06 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first nine months of fiscal 2025, the company achieved a 4.4% net sales growth, 10.9% adjusted EBITDA growth, 29 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and 26.7% adjusted EPS growth [8][35][41] - In Q3, net sales increased by 4.8% to $10.2 billion, driven by case volume growth of 1.1% and food cost inflation and mix impact of 3.7% [34][41] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $500 million, reflecting an 11% increase, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 28 basis points [35][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Independent case growth accelerated by 120 basis points from Q2 to Q3, achieving a 3.9% growth year-over-year [10][34] - Chain restaurant volume declined by 2.4%, although this represented a 160 basis points sequential improvement over Q2 [12][34] - Healthcare and hospitality segments grew by 3.9% and 2.4%, respectively, with healthcare maintaining strong performance [11][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company gained market share with independent restaurants for the eighteenth consecutive quarter, while healthcare saw its twentieth consecutive quarter of market share gains [12][34] - The overall volume growth was supported by new business wins in healthcare and hospitality, with a strong pipeline for future growth [22][120] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a long-range plan that emphasizes sustainable growth, disciplined capital allocation, and strategic acquisitions, including the recent agreement to acquire Chitakis [9][10][39] - The four strategic pillars guiding the company are culture, service, growth, and profit, with ongoing initiatives to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [13][18][28] - The company plans to invest significantly in its Pronto small truck delivery service, expecting it to generate approximately $950 million in sales this year [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving long-term growth targets despite a sluggish macro environment, emphasizing the company's ability to control its own destiny through strategic initiatives [52][72] - The company expects to continue growing adjusted EPS at a faster rate than adjusted EBITDA, projecting adjusted diluted EPS growth of 24% to 26% for the fiscal year [41][42] - Management acknowledged challenges in the restaurant industry but highlighted strong execution and market share gains as key strengths [90][92] Other Important Information - The company has implemented a new sales compensation structure, transitioning to a 100% variable compensation model for local sellers, aimed at incentivizing growth [24][76] - The company reported a strong operating cash flow of nearly $1.1 billion year-to-date, allowing for continued capital investments and share repurchases [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Overall total case growth remains sluggish; what incremental pressures are being seen? - Management noted strong momentum in independent restaurants, with the strongest growth rate in September, and attributed sluggishness to external factors like government shutdowns affecting consumer confidence [50][52] Question: Can you provide more details on the sales force compensation change? - Management expressed confidence in the transition to a 100% variable compensation model, emphasizing that it is designed to incentivize growth and that the change management process is robust [53][54] Question: How many sales support roles are transitioning to customer-facing positions? - The majority of those in sales support roles have been offered seller roles, with a focus on retaining expertise within the company [62][63] Question: What is the impact of the new sales compensation structure on growth rates? - Management expects to maintain low to mid-single-digit growth rates in sales headcount while implementing the new compensation structure [71][72] Question: How is the company addressing strategic vendor management and reinvestment? - Management indicated that productivity gains from strategic vendor management will be reinvested to drive growth and enhance competitiveness [79][81]
US Foods (USFD) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-11-06 14:01
US Foods (USFD) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.07 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.85 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +1.90%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $1.14 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.19, delivering a surprise of +4.39%.Over the last four quarters, the company has sur ...
US Foods(USFD) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-11-06 14:00
Financial Performance - Total case volume increased by 1.1% for Q3 2025 and 1.0% year-to-date [8, 39] - Net sales grew by 4.8% to $10.191 billion for Q3 2025 and 4.4% to $29.624 billion year-to-date [8, 39] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 11.0% to $505 million for Q3 2025 and 10.9% to $1.442 billion year-to-date [8, 39] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 28 bps to 5.0% for Q3 2025 and 29 bps to 4.9% year-to-date [8, 39] - Adjusted Diluted EPS grew by 25.9% to $1.07 for Q3 2025 and 26.7% to $2.94 year-to-date [8, 39] Strategic Initiatives and Growth - Independent Restaurant volume growth accelerated by 120 basis points to 3.9% [11] - Pronto business is on track to deliver approximately $950 million in sales this year and more than $1 billion run-rate by year-end [30] - The company is onboarding more than $100 million in annualized new business wins in Healthcare and Hospitality for the balance of 2025 [30] Cash Flow and Capital Allocation - Operating cash flow reached $1.076 billion year-to-date [44] - Approximately $335 million of shares were repurchased in Q3 [44, 64] - Net leverage stood at 2.6x, remaining within the target range of 2.0x - 3.0x [44, 64]
US Foods(USFD) - 2025 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2025-11-06 11:47
Exhibit 99.1 INVESTOR CONTACT: MEDIA CONTACT: Mike Neese Sara Matheu (847) 232-5894 (773) 580-3775 Michael.Neese@usfoods.com Sara.Matheu@usfoods.com US Foods Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Grew Net Sales 4.8% to $10.2 Billion, Net Income 3.4% to $153 Million and Diluted EPS 9.8% to $0.67 Grew Adjusted EBITDA 11.0% to $505 Million and Adjusted Diluted EPS 25.9% to $1.07 Repurchased ~$335 Million of Shares & Signed Definitive Agreement to Acquire Shetakis ROSEMONT, Ill. (BUSINESS WIRE) Novemb ...
US Foods Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings
Businesswire· 2025-11-06 11:45
US Foods Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Share Grew Net Sales 4.8% to $10.2 Billion, Net Income 3.4% to $153 Million and Diluted EPS 9.8% to $0.67 Total case volume increased 1.1% from the prior year driven by a 3.9% increase in independent restaurant case volume, a 3.9% increase in healthcare volume and a 2.4% increase in hospitality volume, partially offset by a 2.4% decrease in chain volume. Total organic case volume increased 0.8%, which includes 3.5% organic independent restaurant case ...
Is Kirin (KNBWY) Outperforming Other Consumer Staples Stocks This Year?
ZACKS· 2025-10-22 14:40
Company Overview - Kirin Holdings Co. is part of the Consumer Staples sector, which includes 184 companies and is currently ranked 16 in the Zacks Sector Rank [2] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook based on earnings estimate revisions [3] Performance Analysis - Kirin Holdings Co. has achieved a year-to-date return of approximately 12.3%, significantly outperforming the average gain of 1.2% in the Consumer Staples sector [4] - In comparison, the Beverages - Alcohol industry, which includes Kirin Holdings, has seen an average loss of 3.3% this year, further highlighting the company's strong performance [6] Industry Context - The Consumer Staples sector is currently ranked 16 among 16 groups, while the Beverages - Alcohol industry ranks 210 among 210 industries [2][6] - Another notable performer in the Consumer Staples sector is US Foods, which has a year-to-date increase of 13.1% and also holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [5] Future Outlook - Investors are encouraged to monitor Kirin Holdings Co. and US Foods for potential continued strong performance in the Consumer Staples sector [7]
Is US Foods (USFD) a Great Value Stock Right Now?
ZACKS· 2025-10-21 14:41
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the Zacks Rank system and its focus on earnings estimates and revisions to identify strong stocks [1] - Value investing is highlighted as a favored strategy that seeks to find undervalued companies in the market [2] Company Analysis: US Foods (USFD) - USFD currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) and has a Value grade of A, indicating it is among the best value stocks available [3] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.91, which is lower than the industry average of 1.82, suggesting it may be undervalued [4] - USFD's P/S ratio stands at 0.44, significantly lower than the industry's average P/S of 0.99, reinforcing the notion of undervaluation [5] - The P/CF ratio for USFD is 18.09, which is favorable compared to the industry average of 29.12, indicating a solid cash flow outlook [6] - Overall, the metrics suggest that US Foods is likely undervalued, making it a strong candidate for value investment [7]
US Foods to Host Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast
Businesswire· 2025-10-16 10:45
Core Points - US Foods Holding Corp. will host a live conference call and webcast to discuss its third quarter 2025 results on November 6, 2025, at 8 a.m. CST [1] - The conference call can be accessed by dialing 877-344-2001, with listeners advised to call in 10 minutes prior to the start time and provide Conference ID 2528845 [1] - A replay of the conference call will be available after the live event [1]