Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares of Viking Holdings Ltd VIK and raised the price forecast from $49.00 to $51.00.VIK experienced a slight slowdown in bookings during February, following a strong fourth-quarter performance and record bookings in January.Despite this, the company is 88% booked for 2025, with inventory for the year almost sold out. While February’s softness may reflect a pull-forward in spending during the holiday season, the luxury market exposure pro ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 20.5% year-over-year to almost $1.4 billion, driven by higher capacity and revenue per passenger cruise day (PCD) [16] - Adjusted gross margin rose by 19.5% year-over-year to nearly $870 million, resulting in a net yield of $507, which is 7.4% higher than Q4 2023 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 totaled $306 million, up 39.7% from the previous year, with net income for Q4 2024 reported at $104 million compared to a loss of $594 million in Q4 2023 [18] - Adjusted net income attributable to Viking Holdings Limited for Q4 2024 was $200 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.45, and full-year adjusted EPS at $1.86 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the river segment, capacity PCDs increased by 3.7% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin growing by 15.8% to $1.6 billion and net yield up by 11.7% to $533 [21] - For the ocean segment, capacity PCDs increased by 6.2% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin rising by 12.1% to $1.5 billion and net yield increasing by 5% to $522 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a repeat guest rate of 53% and direct bookings exceeding 50%, with a leading market share of 52% in the river segment and 24% in the ocean segment [10] - As of February 23, 2025, advance bookings for 2025 were at $5.3 billion, 26% higher than the same point in 2024, with 88% of capacity already booked [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its core capacity by 12% in 2025 with the delivery of 10 river ships and one ocean ship, emphasizing a leadership position in the river cruise market [28] - Viking is committed to maintaining high customer satisfaction and operational efficiency, leveraging its unique fleet design and in-house operations to enhance product delivery [30][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for core products, with 2025 shaping up to be a great year despite macroeconomic uncertainties [27][84] - The company highlighted its ability to generate demand through its extensive database, allowing for a contrarian approach in uncertain times [83] Other Important Information - Viking became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange on May 1, 2024, and received the 2024 North America IPO of the Year award [12] - The company has a strong balance sheet with total cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion and a net leverage ratio of 2.4 times as of December 31, 2024 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why hasn't 2026 been added to the booking curve charts? - Management focused on 2024 performance and 2025 bookings, with 2026 showing strong early demand but not yet ready for detailed discussion [53][55] Question: How will the company respond to new competition in the river market? - Management believes they are well-positioned with a 52% market share and a strong order book, emphasizing their unique product offerings and customer satisfaction [57][60] Question: What are the current demand trends by region? - Management reported strong demand for 2025, with 88% of capacity sold and positive trends in both river and ocean segments [64] Question: What are the barriers to entry for new competitors? - Management highlighted their extensive docking rights and established market presence as significant barriers to entry for new competitors [77][78] Question: How does the company manage booking curves in uncertain macro environments? - Management noted that their strong booking curves provide flexibility to respond to market conditions, with a focus on high-end customers who are more resilient [84][85] Question: What are the company's priorities for growth in the next 3 to 5 years? - Management indicated a focus on expanding in markets like Egypt and China, with a commitment to direct marketing to these regions [90][91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 20.5% year-over-year to almost $1.4 billion, driven by higher capacity and revenue per passenger cruise day (PCD) [16] - Adjusted gross margin rose by 19.5% year-over-year to nearly $870 million, resulting in a net yield of $507, which is 7.4% higher than Q4 2023 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 totaled $306 million, up 39.7% from the previous year, with net income for Q4 2024 at $104 million compared to a loss of $594 million in Q4 2023 [18] - Adjusted net income attributable to Viking Holdings Limited for Q4 2024 was $200 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.45, and for the full year 2024, adjusted EPS was $1.86 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the river segment, capacity PCDs increased by 3.7% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin growing by 15.8% to $1.6 billion and net yield up 11.7% to $533 [21] - For the ocean segment, capacity PCDs increased by 6.2% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin rising by 12.1% to $1.5 billion and net yield increasing by 5% to $522 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - As of February 23, 2025, Viking was 88% booked for the year with $5.3 billion in advance bookings, which is 26% higher than the same point in 2024 [27] - For ocean cruises, advanced bookings reached $2.4 billion, 30% higher than the previous year, with operating capacity up 18% year-over-year [41] - For river cruises, advanced bookings were nearly $2.6 billion, 24% higher than last year, with operating capacity up 7% year-over-year [43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Viking aims to grow its core capacity by 12% in 2025 with the delivery of 10 river ships and one ocean ship, emphasizing a leadership position in the river cruise market [28] - The company focuses on maintaining high customer satisfaction and operational efficiency, leveraging its unique fleet design and in-house operations to enhance profitability [30][36] - Viking is committed to expanding its market presence, including a focus on the Chinese market with tailored offerings for Chinese-speaking guests [88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for core products, with a positive outlook for 2025 despite macroeconomic uncertainties [27][84] - The company highlighted the resilience of its high-end customer demographic, which is less impacted by economic downturns compared to average consumers [106] - Management noted that they are prepared to adapt their booking strategies based on market conditions, emphasizing the importance of analyzing booking curves [44][85] Other Important Information - Viking became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange on May 1, 2024, and received the 2024 North America IPO of the Year award [12] - The company ended 2024 with total cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion and an undrawn revolver of $375 million, with a net leverage ratio of 2.4 times [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why hasn't 2026 been added to the booking curve charts? - Management focused on 2024 performance and 2025 bookings, with 2026 bookings currently ahead of 2025 at the same point in time [53][54] Question: How will Viking respond to new competition from Royal Caribbean? - Viking holds a strong market share of 52% and has a large order book, which positions it well against new entrants [57][58] Question: What are the current demand trends by region? - Management reported strong demand for 2025, with 88% of capacity sold and positive trends in both river and ocean segments [64] Question: Are there any barriers to entry for new competitors? - Viking has secured valuable docking rights in key locations, which serve as significant barriers to entry for new competitors [77][78] Question: How does Viking manage booking curves in uncertain macro environments? - Viking's strong database allows for direct demand generation, providing flexibility to adapt to market conditions [84][85] Question: What are the priorities for growth in the next 3 to 5 years? - Viking is focusing on expanding its presence in Egypt and China, with plans for additional river vessels in these markets [88][89] Question: How does Viking plan to enhance customer interaction through technology? - The company is investing in technology for online booking and customer interaction, aiming to stay ahead of industry trends [123][124]

Financial Highlights - Full year 2024 adjusted gross margin growth was 140% compared to 2023[10] - Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA growth was 237% compared to 2023[10] - Full year 2024 net leverage was 24x[10] - Full year 2024 ROIC was 408%[10] - Q4 2024 total revenue reached $135 billion compared to $112 billion in Q4 2023[18] - Full year 2024 total revenue reached $5334 billion compared to $4710 billion in 2023[18] - Full year 2024 net income was $153 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $185 billion in 2023[18] Market Position - Viking has over 50% direct bookings[13] - Viking holds 24% of the luxury ocean market share[13] - Viking has 52% of the North American outbound river market share[13] Future Outlook - Advance bookings for 2025 are strong, with $53 billion already booked[26] - Capacity PCD increase of 12% for 2025[26] - 88% of capacity PCDs for 2025 have already been sold[26]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $5,333,882, an increase of 13.2% from $4,710,493 in 2023[341]. - Net income attributable to Viking Holdings Ltd for 2024 was $152,331, compared to a net loss of $1,850,572 in 2023[341]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $1,348,302, up from $1,090,322 in 2023, reflecting a significant recovery in operational performance[343]. - ROIC for 2024 improved to 40.8%, compared to 26.7% in 2023, indicating enhanced efficiency in generating operating income relative to invested capital[346]. - Adjusted Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2024 was $1,726,154, representing a conversion rate of 128.0%, up from 92.3% in 2023[346]. - The company reported a diluted net income per share of $0.36 for 2024, compared to a loss of $4.42 per share in 2023[341]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 increased by $623.4 million, or 13.2%, to $5,333.9 million from $4,710.5 million in 2023[353]. - Viking River segment revenue increased by $313.1 million, or 13.4%, to $2,654.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,341.3 million in 2023[356]. - Viking Ocean segment revenue increased by $250.8 million, or 12.9%, to $2,196.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1,945.2 million in 2023[357]. Operational Insights - The operating capacity for Viking River, Viking Ocean, Viking Expedition, and Viking Mississippi is projected to be 12% higher for the 2025 season compared to the 2024 season[307]. - The company strategically manages its fleet to optimize occupancy and reduce operating costs based on early booking insights[317]. - The company expects seasonality trends in revenue and profits to continue, with the majority of revenue historically earned in the second and third quarters[320]. Shareholder Information - The company completed its IPO on May 3, 2024, issuing 11,000,000 ordinary shares at a price of $24.00 per share, resulting in net proceeds of $243.9 million[310]. - The company had 442,721,700 total ordinary and special shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024[315]. - The number of weighted-average ordinary shares outstanding (diluted) increased to 366,709 in 2024 from 221,936 in 2023[341]. - As of December 31, 2024, there were options outstanding for 2,128,724 ordinary shares with a weighted average exercise price of $15.81, and 1,343,777 restricted share units (RSUs) outstanding[460]. - The 2018 Equity Incentive Plan has reserved 54,600,000 ordinary shares for issuance, with approximately 18,706,701 shares remaining available for future issuance as of December 31, 2024[461]. - The 2024 Employee Share Purchase Plan (ESPP) has reserved 4,680,000 ordinary shares for issuance, with annual increases starting in 2025[474]. Debt and Financing - The average indebtedness for the four quarters of 2024 was $6,503,078, a decrease from $8,574,041 in 2023[348]. - Total debt obligations as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $5,480.993 million, with future interest payments totaling $1,499.488 million[382]. - The company entered into a credit agreement for a five-year Revolving Credit Facility in an aggregate principal amount of $375.0 million in June 2024[372]. - The company has secured financing for its new ocean ships, with a total contract price of $4,753.5 million for 10 ships scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2030[398]. Impairment and Valuation - The company recognized a $28.6 million impairment for river vessels in Russia and Ukraine in Q1 2022, reducing their carrying value to zero due to operational uncertainties[424]. - An additional impairment of $13.3 million was recognized in Q2 2022 for the Viking Legend and Viking Prestige vessels, also reflecting their carrying values exceeding fair values[425]. - No impairment indicators were identified for vessels and ships as of December 31, 2024, and no impairment loss was recognized for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023[422]. - The estimated recoverable amount for the vessels in Russia and Ukraine was determined to be zero, reflecting the oldest vessels in the fleet and lower historical operating results[424]. Employee and Governance - The company’s executive team includes experienced professionals with backgrounds in finance, operations, and marketing, contributing to strategic decision-making[432]. - The company’s board of directors comprises members with extensive experience in law, finance, and the maritime industry, enhancing governance and oversight[442]. - Total compensation for directors and executive officers for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $304.9 million, primarily related to equity awards that vested upon the IPO[453]. - The board of directors currently consists of eight members, with specific rights for principal shareholders to designate nominees[489]. - The Audit Committee includes members who qualify as independent directors and meet financial literacy requirements[493]. - The company has adopted a clawback policy compliant with NYSE Listing Rules, allowing for reduction or recoupment of incentive-based compensation[486]. - The Compensation Committee is responsible for setting the compensation program for executive officers and monitoring incentive plans[495]. - The company has entered into a collective bargaining agreement with the Norwegian Seafarers' Union and the Associated Marine Officers' and Seamen's Union of the Philippines for certain employees on its ships[501]. - No U.S. employees are subject to collective bargaining agreements, and the company maintains a generally good relationship with employees and unions[501].

Core Viewpoint - Viking Holdings (VIK) is set to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 11, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates stable at 36 cents, reflecting a significant decline of 59% from the previous quarter's actuals, while revenue estimates are at $1.4 billion, indicating a 19.6% decrease from the third quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - VIK has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the three quarters since going public, with an average earnings beat of 37% [3]. - The company's upcoming results are expected to be supported by its fleet expansion efforts, including the addition of a new ocean ship, Viking Vela, which will operate in the Mediterranean and Northern Europe [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Headwinds - Despite positive performance expectations, VIK faces challenges such as increased expenses related to commissions, transportation, and onboard services, along with inflation and global supply-chain disruptions that may pressure margins [5]. - Geopolitical risks are also noted as operational challenges that could negatively impact performance [5]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for VIK, as it has an Earnings ESP of -4.49%, with the most accurate estimate being 2 cents below the consensus estimate of 36 cents [6][7]. - VIK holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook despite the earnings prediction challenges [7].

Core Insights - Viking Holdings (VIK) has consistently beaten earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 8.69% [1] - For the most recent quarter, Viking reported earnings of $0.89 per share against an expectation of $0.83, resulting in a surprise of 7.23% [2] - The previous quarter also saw a positive surprise, with actual earnings of $0.76 per share compared to an estimate of $0.69, yielding a surprise of 10.14% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Viking, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [3][6] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) suggests that another earnings beat is likely [6] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [4] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [5] - A positive Earnings ESP indicates that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [6] - A negative Earnings ESP can reduce the predictive power of the metric, but does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove initiated coverage on Viking Holdings Ltd with a Neutral rating and a price forecast of $49, highlighting the company's strong business model and revenue growth potential due to demographic trends and category expansion [1] Group 1: Business Model and Demographics - Viking Holdings has a high exposure to a growing demographic that books ahead at higher prices, which enhances its revenue growth [1] - The core demographic for Viking Holdings consists mainly of affluent US travelers aged 55 and older, representing about 30% of the population but over 70% of the wealth [3] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The stock has risen 73% since its IPO in May 2024, leading the analyst to seek a better entry point due to its valuation premium compared to Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd [2] - Viking Holdings has less new-to-cruise customers compared to its peers, which have seen double-digit growth in this segment, particularly among millennials and younger travelers [4] Group 3: Booking Visibility and Financial Strategy - Viking Holdings has high booking visibility, with 70% of bookings for 2025 already secured, indicating less potential for near-term estimate revisions and share repurchases [2] - Despite a strong pipeline of potential cruisers, the company may miss out on the new-to-cruise growth that has benefited the broader industry [4]

Group 1 - Viking Holdings (NYSE: VIK) has shown strong performance despite macroeconomic challenges, with forward booking metrics indicating solid growth potential ahead [1] - The author maintains a buy rating on Viking Holdings, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a diverse investment approach, incorporating fundamental, technical, and momentum investing strategies to enhance the investment process [1]

Core Insights - Viking Holdings (VIK) is highlighted as an exciting investment opportunity, with expert analysts providing insights into market trends and potential investment avenues [1] Company Overview - The stock price referenced is from October 16, 2024, indicating a specific timeframe for the analysis [1] - The video discussing Viking Holdings was published on November 28, 2024, suggesting that the insights are relatively recent and relevant [1]