A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Viking Holdings (VIK) . Shares have added about 2.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Viking due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, ...

Core Viewpoint - Viking Holdings (VIK) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Viking for the fiscal year ending December 2025 is projected at $2.37 per share, reflecting a 27.4% increase from the previous year's reported figure [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Viking has risen by 4.4%, indicating a trend of increasing earnings estimates [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system is based solely on changes in a company's earnings picture, making it a reliable tool for investors to gauge stock performance [2][3]. - The system classifies stocks into five groups, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a 'Strong Buy' rating, highlighting Viking's strong position in terms of earnings estimate revisions [9][10]. Market Impact - The correlation between earnings estimate revisions and stock price movements suggests that Viking's rating upgrade could lead to favorable price movements in the near term [4][10]. - Institutional investors often react to changes in earnings estimates, which can lead to significant stock price fluctuations based on their buying or selling activities [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses Viking Holdings (NYSE: VIK) and previously held a buy rating due to solid underlying demand trends and robust forward-looking metrics [1] - The demand outlook and competitive environment for Viking Holdings have deteriorated, leading to a reassessment of the investment thesis [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a diverse investment background, incorporating fundamental, technical, and momentum investing strategies to refine the investment process [1]

Viking Holdings (VIK) has been beaten down lately with too much selling pressure. While the stock has lost 25.1% over the past four weeks, there is light at the end of the tunnel as it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts expect the company to report better earnings than they predicted earlier.Here is How to Spot Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator tha ...

Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares of Viking Holdings Ltd VIK and raised the price forecast from $49.00 to $51.00.VIK experienced a slight slowdown in bookings during February, following a strong fourth-quarter performance and record bookings in January.Despite this, the company is 88% booked for 2025, with inventory for the year almost sold out. While February’s softness may reflect a pull-forward in spending during the holiday season, the luxury market exposure pro ...

Viking Holdings Ltd (NYSE:VIK) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call March 11, 2025 8:00 AM ET Company Participants Carola Mengolini - Vice President of Investor Relations Tor Hagen - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Leah Talactac - President and Chief Financial Officer Linh Banh - EVP of Finance Conference Call Participants Steve Wieczynski - Stifel Matthew Boss - JPMorgan Robin Farley - UBS Andrew Didora - Bank of America Brant Montour - Barclays Meredith Jensen - HSBC Dan Politzer - Wells Fargo Operator G ...

Certain statements in this presentation constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws intended to qualify for the safe harbor from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statementsinclude, but are not limited to, all statements other than statements of historical facts contained in this presentation, including among others, statements relating to our future financial performance, our business prosp ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $5,333,882, an increase of 13.2% from $4,710,493 in 2023[341]. - Net income attributable to Viking Holdings Ltd for 2024 was $152,331, compared to a net loss of $1,850,572 in 2023[341]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $1,348,302, up from $1,090,322 in 2023, reflecting a significant recovery in operational performance[343]. - ROIC for 2024 improved to 40.8%, compared to 26.7% in 2023, indicating enhanced efficiency in generating operating income relative to invested capital[346]. - Adjusted Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2024 was $1,726,154, representing a conversion rate of 128.0%, up from 92.3% in 2023[346]. - The company reported a diluted net income per share of $0.36 for 2024, compared to a loss of $4.42 per share in 2023[341]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 increased by $623.4 million, or 13.2%, to $5,333.9 million from $4,710.5 million in 2023[353]. - Viking River segment revenue increased by $313.1 million, or 13.4%, to $2,654.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,341.3 million in 2023[356]. - Viking Ocean segment revenue increased by $250.8 million, or 12.9%, to $2,196.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1,945.2 million in 2023[357]. Operational Insights - The operating capacity for Viking River, Viking Ocean, Viking Expedition, and Viking Mississippi is projected to be 12% higher for the 2025 season compared to the 2024 season[307]. - The company strategically manages its fleet to optimize occupancy and reduce operating costs based on early booking insights[317]. - The company expects seasonality trends in revenue and profits to continue, with the majority of revenue historically earned in the second and third quarters[320]. Shareholder Information - The company completed its IPO on May 3, 2024, issuing 11,000,000 ordinary shares at a price of $24.00 per share, resulting in net proceeds of $243.9 million[310]. - The company had 442,721,700 total ordinary and special shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024[315]. - The number of weighted-average ordinary shares outstanding (diluted) increased to 366,709 in 2024 from 221,936 in 2023[341]. - As of December 31, 2024, there were options outstanding for 2,128,724 ordinary shares with a weighted average exercise price of $15.81, and 1,343,777 restricted share units (RSUs) outstanding[460]. - The 2018 Equity Incentive Plan has reserved 54,600,000 ordinary shares for issuance, with approximately 18,706,701 shares remaining available for future issuance as of December 31, 2024[461]. - The 2024 Employee Share Purchase Plan (ESPP) has reserved 4,680,000 ordinary shares for issuance, with annual increases starting in 2025[474]. Debt and Financing - The average indebtedness for the four quarters of 2024 was $6,503,078, a decrease from $8,574,041 in 2023[348]. - Total debt obligations as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $5,480.993 million, with future interest payments totaling $1,499.488 million[382]. - The company entered into a credit agreement for a five-year Revolving Credit Facility in an aggregate principal amount of $375.0 million in June 2024[372]. - The company has secured financing for its new ocean ships, with a total contract price of $4,753.5 million for 10 ships scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2030[398]. Impairment and Valuation - The company recognized a $28.6 million impairment for river vessels in Russia and Ukraine in Q1 2022, reducing their carrying value to zero due to operational uncertainties[424]. - An additional impairment of $13.3 million was recognized in Q2 2022 for the Viking Legend and Viking Prestige vessels, also reflecting their carrying values exceeding fair values[425]. - No impairment indicators were identified for vessels and ships as of December 31, 2024, and no impairment loss was recognized for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023[422]. - The estimated recoverable amount for the vessels in Russia and Ukraine was determined to be zero, reflecting the oldest vessels in the fleet and lower historical operating results[424]. Employee and Governance - The company’s executive team includes experienced professionals with backgrounds in finance, operations, and marketing, contributing to strategic decision-making[432]. - The company’s board of directors comprises members with extensive experience in law, finance, and the maritime industry, enhancing governance and oversight[442]. - Total compensation for directors and executive officers for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $304.9 million, primarily related to equity awards that vested upon the IPO[453]. - The board of directors currently consists of eight members, with specific rights for principal shareholders to designate nominees[489]. - The Audit Committee includes members who qualify as independent directors and meet financial literacy requirements[493]. - The company has adopted a clawback policy compliant with NYSE Listing Rules, allowing for reduction or recoupment of incentive-based compensation[486]. - The Compensation Committee is responsible for setting the compensation program for executive officers and monitoring incentive plans[495]. - The company has entered into a collective bargaining agreement with the Norwegian Seafarers' Union and the Associated Marine Officers' and Seamen's Union of the Philippines for certain employees on its ships[501]. - No U.S. employees are subject to collective bargaining agreements, and the company maintains a generally good relationship with employees and unions[501].

Core Viewpoint - Viking Holdings (VIK) is set to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 11, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates stable at 36 cents, reflecting a significant decline of 59% from the previous quarter's actuals, while revenue estimates are at $1.4 billion, indicating a 19.6% decrease from the third quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - VIK has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the three quarters since going public, with an average earnings beat of 37% [3]. - The company's upcoming results are expected to be supported by its fleet expansion efforts, including the addition of a new ocean ship, Viking Vela, which will operate in the Mediterranean and Northern Europe [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Headwinds - Despite positive performance expectations, VIK faces challenges such as increased expenses related to commissions, transportation, and onboard services, along with inflation and global supply-chain disruptions that may pressure margins [5]. - Geopolitical risks are also noted as operational challenges that could negatively impact performance [5]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for VIK, as it has an Earnings ESP of -4.49%, with the most accurate estimate being 2 cents below the consensus estimate of 36 cents [6][7]. - VIK holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook despite the earnings prediction challenges [7].

Core Insights - Viking Holdings (VIK) has consistently beaten earnings estimates, particularly in the last two quarters with an average surprise of 8.69% [1] - For the most recent quarter, Viking reported earnings of $0.89 per share against an expectation of $0.83, resulting in a surprise of 7.23% [2] - The previous quarter also saw a positive surprise, with actual earnings of $0.76 per share compared to an estimate of $0.69, yielding a surprise of 10.14% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Viking, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong likelihood of an earnings beat [3][6] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) suggests that another earnings beat is likely [6] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) or better have a nearly 70% chance of producing a positive surprise [4] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [5] - A positive Earnings ESP indicates that analysts have recently become more optimistic about the company's earnings prospects [6] - A negative Earnings ESP can reduce the predictive power of the metric, but does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [6]