Core Viewpoint - Viking Holdings (VIK) shares have increased by approximately 2.9% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of this positive trend leading up to the next earnings release [1] Estimates Movement - Estimates revision for Viking has remained flat over the past month, indicating no significant changes in analyst expectations [2] VGM Scores - Viking currently holds an average Growth Score of C, a Momentum Score of D, and a Value Score of D, placing it in the bottom 40% for the value investment strategy. The overall aggregate VGM Score for the stock is D, which is relevant for investors not focused on a single strategy [3] Outlook - Viking has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of an in-line return from the stock in the upcoming months [4]

Core Viewpoint - Viking Holdings (VIK) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Viking for the fiscal year ending December 2025 is projected at $2.37 per share, reflecting a 27.4% increase from the previous year's reported figure [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Viking has risen by 4.4%, indicating a trend of increasing earnings estimates [8]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system is based solely on changes in a company's earnings picture, making it a reliable tool for investors to gauge stock performance [2][3]. - The system classifies stocks into five groups, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a 'Strong Buy' rating, highlighting Viking's strong position in terms of earnings estimate revisions [9][10]. Market Impact - The correlation between earnings estimate revisions and stock price movements suggests that Viking's rating upgrade could lead to favorable price movements in the near term [4][10]. - Institutional investors often react to changes in earnings estimates, which can lead to significant stock price fluctuations based on their buying or selling activities [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses Viking Holdings (NYSE: VIK) and previously held a buy rating due to solid underlying demand trends and robust forward-looking metrics [1] - The demand outlook and competitive environment for Viking Holdings have deteriorated, leading to a reassessment of the investment thesis [1] Group 2 - The author emphasizes a diverse investment background, incorporating fundamental, technical, and momentum investing strategies to refine the investment process [1]

Viking Holdings (VIK) has been beaten down lately with too much selling pressure. While the stock has lost 25.1% over the past four weeks, there is light at the end of the tunnel as it is now in oversold territory and Wall Street analysts expect the company to report better earnings than they predicted earlier.Here is How to Spot Oversold StocksWe use Relative Strength Index (RSI), one of the most commonly used technical indicators, for spotting whether a stock is oversold. This is a momentum oscillator tha ...

Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares of Viking Holdings Ltd VIK and raised the price forecast from $49.00 to $51.00.VIK experienced a slight slowdown in bookings during February, following a strong fourth-quarter performance and record bookings in January.Despite this, the company is 88% booked for 2025, with inventory for the year almost sold out. While February’s softness may reflect a pull-forward in spending during the holiday season, the luxury market exposure pro ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 20.5% year-over-year to almost $1.4 billion, driven by higher capacity and revenue per passenger cruise day (PCD) [16] - Adjusted gross margin rose by 19.5% year-over-year to nearly $870 million, resulting in a net yield of $507, which is 7.4% higher than Q4 2023 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 totaled $306 million, up 39.7% from the previous year, with net income for Q4 2024 reported at $104 million compared to a loss of $594 million in Q4 2023 [18] - Adjusted net income attributable to Viking Holdings Limited for Q4 2024 was $200 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.45, and full-year adjusted EPS at $1.86 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the river segment, capacity PCDs increased by 3.7% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin growing by 15.8% to $1.6 billion and net yield up by 11.7% to $533 [21] - For the ocean segment, capacity PCDs increased by 6.2% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin rising by 12.1% to $1.5 billion and net yield increasing by 5% to $522 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a repeat guest rate of 53% and direct bookings exceeding 50%, with a leading market share of 52% in the river segment and 24% in the ocean segment [10] - As of February 23, 2025, advance bookings for 2025 were at $5.3 billion, 26% higher than the same point in 2024, with 88% of capacity already booked [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its core capacity by 12% in 2025 with the delivery of 10 river ships and one ocean ship, emphasizing a leadership position in the river cruise market [28] - Viking is committed to maintaining high customer satisfaction and operational efficiency, leveraging its unique fleet design and in-house operations to enhance product delivery [30][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for core products, with 2025 shaping up to be a great year despite macroeconomic uncertainties [27][84] - The company highlighted its ability to generate demand through its extensive database, allowing for a contrarian approach in uncertain times [83] Other Important Information - Viking became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange on May 1, 2024, and received the 2024 North America IPO of the Year award [12] - The company has a strong balance sheet with total cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion and a net leverage ratio of 2.4 times as of December 31, 2024 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why hasn't 2026 been added to the booking curve charts? - Management focused on 2024 performance and 2025 bookings, with 2026 showing strong early demand but not yet ready for detailed discussion [53][55] Question: How will the company respond to new competition in the river market? - Management believes they are well-positioned with a 52% market share and a strong order book, emphasizing their unique product offerings and customer satisfaction [57][60] Question: What are the current demand trends by region? - Management reported strong demand for 2025, with 88% of capacity sold and positive trends in both river and ocean segments [64] Question: What are the barriers to entry for new competitors? - Management highlighted their extensive docking rights and established market presence as significant barriers to entry for new competitors [77][78] Question: How does the company manage booking curves in uncertain macro environments? - Management noted that their strong booking curves provide flexibility to respond to market conditions, with a focus on high-end customers who are more resilient [84][85] Question: What are the company's priorities for growth in the next 3 to 5 years? - Management indicated a focus on expanding in markets like Egypt and China, with a commitment to direct marketing to these regions [90][91]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 2024 increased by 20.5% year-over-year to almost $1.4 billion, driven by higher capacity and revenue per passenger cruise day (PCD) [16] - Adjusted gross margin rose by 19.5% year-over-year to nearly $870 million, resulting in a net yield of $507, which is 7.4% higher than Q4 2023 [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 totaled $306 million, up 39.7% from the previous year, with net income for Q4 2024 at $104 million compared to a loss of $594 million in Q4 2023 [18] - Adjusted net income attributable to Viking Holdings Limited for Q4 2024 was $200 million, with adjusted EPS at $0.45, and for the full year 2024, adjusted EPS was $1.86 [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the river segment, capacity PCDs increased by 3.7% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin growing by 15.8% to $1.6 billion and net yield up 11.7% to $533 [21] - For the ocean segment, capacity PCDs increased by 6.2% year-over-year, with adjusted gross margin rising by 12.1% to $1.5 billion and net yield increasing by 5% to $522 [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - As of February 23, 2025, Viking was 88% booked for the year with $5.3 billion in advance bookings, which is 26% higher than the same point in 2024 [27] - For ocean cruises, advanced bookings reached $2.4 billion, 30% higher than the previous year, with operating capacity up 18% year-over-year [41] - For river cruises, advanced bookings were nearly $2.6 billion, 24% higher than last year, with operating capacity up 7% year-over-year [43] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Viking aims to grow its core capacity by 12% in 2025 with the delivery of 10 river ships and one ocean ship, emphasizing a leadership position in the river cruise market [28] - The company focuses on maintaining high customer satisfaction and operational efficiency, leveraging its unique fleet design and in-house operations to enhance profitability [30][36] - Viking is committed to expanding its market presence, including a focus on the Chinese market with tailored offerings for Chinese-speaking guests [88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strong demand for core products, with a positive outlook for 2025 despite macroeconomic uncertainties [27][84] - The company highlighted the resilience of its high-end customer demographic, which is less impacted by economic downturns compared to average consumers [106] - Management noted that they are prepared to adapt their booking strategies based on market conditions, emphasizing the importance of analyzing booking curves [44][85] Other Important Information - Viking became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange on May 1, 2024, and received the 2024 North America IPO of the Year award [12] - The company ended 2024 with total cash and cash equivalents of $2.5 billion and an undrawn revolver of $375 million, with a net leverage ratio of 2.4 times [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why hasn't 2026 been added to the booking curve charts? - Management focused on 2024 performance and 2025 bookings, with 2026 bookings currently ahead of 2025 at the same point in time [53][54] Question: How will Viking respond to new competition from Royal Caribbean? - Viking holds a strong market share of 52% and has a large order book, which positions it well against new entrants [57][58] Question: What are the current demand trends by region? - Management reported strong demand for 2025, with 88% of capacity sold and positive trends in both river and ocean segments [64] Question: Are there any barriers to entry for new competitors? - Viking has secured valuable docking rights in key locations, which serve as significant barriers to entry for new competitors [77][78] Question: How does Viking manage booking curves in uncertain macro environments? - Viking's strong database allows for direct demand generation, providing flexibility to adapt to market conditions [84][85] Question: What are the priorities for growth in the next 3 to 5 years? - Viking is focusing on expanding its presence in Egypt and China, with plans for additional river vessels in these markets [88][89] Question: How does Viking plan to enhance customer interaction through technology? - The company is investing in technology for online booking and customer interaction, aiming to stay ahead of industry trends [123][124]

Financial Highlights - Full year 2024 adjusted gross margin growth was 140% compared to 2023[10] - Full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA growth was 237% compared to 2023[10] - Full year 2024 net leverage was 24x[10] - Full year 2024 ROIC was 408%[10] - Q4 2024 total revenue reached $135 billion compared to $112 billion in Q4 2023[18] - Full year 2024 total revenue reached $5334 billion compared to $4710 billion in 2023[18] - Full year 2024 net income was $153 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $185 billion in 2023[18] Market Position - Viking has over 50% direct bookings[13] - Viking holds 24% of the luxury ocean market share[13] - Viking has 52% of the North American outbound river market share[13] Future Outlook - Advance bookings for 2025 are strong, with $53 billion already booked[26] - Capacity PCD increase of 12% for 2025[26] - 88% of capacity PCDs for 2025 have already been sold[26]

Financial Performance - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $5,333,882, an increase of 13.2% from $4,710,493 in 2023[341]. - Net income attributable to Viking Holdings Ltd for 2024 was $152,331, compared to a net loss of $1,850,572 in 2023[341]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $1,348,302, up from $1,090,322 in 2023, reflecting a significant recovery in operational performance[343]. - ROIC for 2024 improved to 40.8%, compared to 26.7% in 2023, indicating enhanced efficiency in generating operating income relative to invested capital[346]. - Adjusted Free Cash Flow (FCF) for 2024 was $1,726,154, representing a conversion rate of 128.0%, up from 92.3% in 2023[346]. - The company reported a diluted net income per share of $0.36 for 2024, compared to a loss of $4.42 per share in 2023[341]. - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024 increased by $623.4 million, or 13.2%, to $5,333.9 million from $4,710.5 million in 2023[353]. - Viking River segment revenue increased by $313.1 million, or 13.4%, to $2,654.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $2,341.3 million in 2023[356]. - Viking Ocean segment revenue increased by $250.8 million, or 12.9%, to $2,196.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1,945.2 million in 2023[357]. Operational Insights - The operating capacity for Viking River, Viking Ocean, Viking Expedition, and Viking Mississippi is projected to be 12% higher for the 2025 season compared to the 2024 season[307]. - The company strategically manages its fleet to optimize occupancy and reduce operating costs based on early booking insights[317]. - The company expects seasonality trends in revenue and profits to continue, with the majority of revenue historically earned in the second and third quarters[320]. Shareholder Information - The company completed its IPO on May 3, 2024, issuing 11,000,000 ordinary shares at a price of $24.00 per share, resulting in net proceeds of $243.9 million[310]. - The company had 442,721,700 total ordinary and special shares outstanding as of December 31, 2024[315]. - The number of weighted-average ordinary shares outstanding (diluted) increased to 366,709 in 2024 from 221,936 in 2023[341]. - As of December 31, 2024, there were options outstanding for 2,128,724 ordinary shares with a weighted average exercise price of $15.81, and 1,343,777 restricted share units (RSUs) outstanding[460]. - The 2018 Equity Incentive Plan has reserved 54,600,000 ordinary shares for issuance, with approximately 18,706,701 shares remaining available for future issuance as of December 31, 2024[461]. - The 2024 Employee Share Purchase Plan (ESPP) has reserved 4,680,000 ordinary shares for issuance, with annual increases starting in 2025[474]. Debt and Financing - The average indebtedness for the four quarters of 2024 was $6,503,078, a decrease from $8,574,041 in 2023[348]. - Total debt obligations as of December 31, 2024, amounted to $5,480.993 million, with future interest payments totaling $1,499.488 million[382]. - The company entered into a credit agreement for a five-year Revolving Credit Facility in an aggregate principal amount of $375.0 million in June 2024[372]. - The company has secured financing for its new ocean ships, with a total contract price of $4,753.5 million for 10 ships scheduled for delivery between 2025 and 2030[398]. Impairment and Valuation - The company recognized a $28.6 million impairment for river vessels in Russia and Ukraine in Q1 2022, reducing their carrying value to zero due to operational uncertainties[424]. - An additional impairment of $13.3 million was recognized in Q2 2022 for the Viking Legend and Viking Prestige vessels, also reflecting their carrying values exceeding fair values[425]. - No impairment indicators were identified for vessels and ships as of December 31, 2024, and no impairment loss was recognized for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023[422]. - The estimated recoverable amount for the vessels in Russia and Ukraine was determined to be zero, reflecting the oldest vessels in the fleet and lower historical operating results[424]. Employee and Governance - The company’s executive team includes experienced professionals with backgrounds in finance, operations, and marketing, contributing to strategic decision-making[432]. - The company’s board of directors comprises members with extensive experience in law, finance, and the maritime industry, enhancing governance and oversight[442]. - Total compensation for directors and executive officers for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $304.9 million, primarily related to equity awards that vested upon the IPO[453]. - The board of directors currently consists of eight members, with specific rights for principal shareholders to designate nominees[489]. - The Audit Committee includes members who qualify as independent directors and meet financial literacy requirements[493]. - The company has adopted a clawback policy compliant with NYSE Listing Rules, allowing for reduction or recoupment of incentive-based compensation[486]. - The Compensation Committee is responsible for setting the compensation program for executive officers and monitoring incentive plans[495]. - The company has entered into a collective bargaining agreement with the Norwegian Seafarers' Union and the Associated Marine Officers' and Seamen's Union of the Philippines for certain employees on its ships[501]. - No U.S. employees are subject to collective bargaining agreements, and the company maintains a generally good relationship with employees and unions[501].

Core Viewpoint - Viking Holdings (VIK) is set to release its fourth-quarter 2024 results on March 11, with earnings per share (EPS) estimates stable at 36 cents, reflecting a significant decline of 59% from the previous quarter's actuals, while revenue estimates are at $1.4 billion, indicating a 19.6% decrease from the third quarter [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - VIK has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the three quarters since going public, with an average earnings beat of 37% [3]. - The company's upcoming results are expected to be supported by its fleet expansion efforts, including the addition of a new ocean ship, Viking Vela, which will operate in the Mediterranean and Northern Europe [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Headwinds - Despite positive performance expectations, VIK faces challenges such as increased expenses related to commissions, transportation, and onboard services, along with inflation and global supply-chain disruptions that may pressure margins [5]. - Geopolitical risks are also noted as operational challenges that could negatively impact performance [5]. Group 3: Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for VIK, as it has an Earnings ESP of -4.49%, with the most accurate estimate being 2 cents below the consensus estimate of 36 cents [6][7]. - VIK holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook despite the earnings prediction challenges [7].