Daniel Mellado is an economist from Carabobo University with a Master's Degree in Statistics from Simon Bolivar University, both obtained in Venezuela.Daniel worked analyzing the agricultural commodity market and the financial investment portfolio for an agribusiness group. Then, he managed two teams, one in trading and the other in data analysis. The trading team invested in bonds, equities, and ETFs.His following job opportunities have been as a freelance developing and implementing strategies for algorit ...

Group 1 - Investors in Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. should monitor the stock due to significant activity in the options market, particularly the Aug 15, 2025 $25 Call which has high implied volatility [1] - Implied volatility indicates the market's expectation of future price movement, suggesting that investors anticipate a significant change in Vista Energy's stock price [2] - Currently, Vista Energy holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) in the Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry, which is in the bottom 28% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] Group 2 - Over the past 30 days, no analysts have raised their earnings estimates for Vista Energy's current quarter, while one analyst has lowered the estimate, reducing the Zacks Consensus Estimate from $1.88 to $1.28 per share [3] - The high implied volatility may indicate a potential trading opportunity, as options traders often seek to sell premium on options with high implied volatility, hoping the stock does not move as much as expected [4]

Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy S.A.B. de CV's shares have dropped over 7% following a significant earnings miss in Q2 2025, attributed to cost pressures despite a solid growth trajectory and revised guidance [1] Q2 Results - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.15, and down from 74 cents in the prior-year quarter [2][10] - Quarterly revenues reached $610.5 million, up from $396.7 million year-over-year, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $592 million [2] Production Performance - Total production averaged 118,018 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), an 81% increase from 65,288 Boe/d in the same quarter last year [4][10] - Crude oil production rose to 102,197 barrels per day (Bbls/d) from 57,204 Bbls/d year-over-year, with natural gas liquids production increasing by 238% and natural gas output rising by 93% [5] Pricing and Costs - Average realized crude oil price was $62.2 per barrel, down 13% from $71.8 a year ago, while natural gas prices fell from $3.9 to $2.8 per million Btu [6] - Lifting expenses totaled $50.3 million, an 88.4% increase from $26.7 million year-over-year, with lifting costs per barrel of oil equivalent at $4.7, up 4% from the prior year [7] Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, Vista Energy had $153.8 million in cash and short-term investments, with long-term debt at $1.9 billion and short-term debt at $698.4 million [8] - Capital expenditure for the quarter was $356.1 million, with net cash from operating activities reported as negative $9.4 million [8] Updated Guidance - The company raised its 2025 EBITDA forecast to $1.65-$1.85 billion, driven by enhanced production efficiency and the consolidation of La Amarga Chica [10][12] - Total production is expected to increase by 60% year-over-year to 112-114 Mboe/d for 2025, with an annualized rate of 125-128 Mboe/d in the second half of 2025 [12] - Capital expenditure guidance is set at $1.2 billion, with lifting costs projected to decline by 2% to $4.5/Boe [13]

Core Insights - TT International Asset Management sold 691,645 shares of Vista Energy, reducing its holdings to 277,876 shares valued at $13.29 million, representing 2.5% of the firm's reportable equity assets as of June 30, 2025 [1][2] - Vista Energy's stock price increased by 9.88% over the past year, but it underperformed the S&P 500 by 2.73 percentage points [2][5] - The company reported significant growth in production and revenue, with production up 81% and revenue up 54% year over year in Q2 [6] Company Overview - Vista Energy has a market capitalization of $4.66 billion, with a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $1.77 billion and a net income of $481.66 million [3] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Vista Energy is 10.49, and it has a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.69% [2] Recent Developments - Vista Energy's net income surged by 68% year over year, although adjusted earnings, excluding a one-time gain of $202.5 million from the acquisition of Petronas E&P Argentina, were down 21% year over year [6] - The acquisition of Petronas E&P Argentina for $900 million enhances Vista's production capacity and diversifies its portfolio with midstream energy assets [7] Business Operations - Vista Energy engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America, primarily in Vaca Muerta, managing approximately 183,100 acres and holding proved reserves of 181.6 million barrels of oil equivalent [9]

Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy reported its Q2 2025 earnings, highlighting key financial results and strategic initiatives aimed at growth and operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Vista Energy is led by a team including Co-Founder and Strategic Planning & Investor Relations Officer Alejandro Chernacov, Chairman & CEO Miguel Galuccio, CFO Pablo Vera Pinto, CTO Juan Garoby, and COO Matias Weissel [3]. Group 2: Earnings Call Details - The earnings call for Q2 2025 was conducted on July 11, 2025, at 9:00 AM ET, with participation from various research divisions including Jefferies LLC, Citigroup Inc., and Goldman Sachs Group, among others [1][2]. - The call was recorded, indicating a focus on transparency and accessibility for stakeholders [2].

Core Insights - Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has accelerated its transformation significantly since the last analysis published in late May [1] Company Developments - The company has strengthened its position in the market within a matter of weeks [1]

Exhibit 1 VISTA ENERGY, S.A.B. DE C.V. Unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024 and for the six-month periods ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 VISTA ENERGY, S.A.B. DE C.V. Unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as of June 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024 and for the six-month periods ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 • Unaudited interim condensed consolidated statements of profit or loss and other comprehensive in ...

Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy has published its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting its commitment to sustainability and transparency in operations [1] Group 1 - The report is accessible on Vista's official website, indicating the company's focus on stakeholder engagement and information dissemination [1] - The announcement was made on July 8, 2025, showcasing the company's timely communication regarding its sustainability efforts [1]

Core Insights - The article compares two companies, Sasol (SSL) and Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST), to determine which is a better investment opportunity for undervalued stocks [1] Valuation Metrics - Sasol has a forward P/E ratio of 2.75, while Vista Energy has a forward P/E of 8.90 [5] - Sasol's PEG ratio is 0.17, indicating a favorable earnings growth outlook compared to Vista Energy's PEG ratio of 1.89 [5] - Sasol's P/B ratio stands at 0.41, contrasting with Vista Energy's P/B of 2.72 [6] Investment Ratings - Sasol currently holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), whereas Vista Energy has a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [3] - Based on the valuation metrics and earnings outlook, Sasol is considered the superior value option compared to Vista Energy [6]

Since my last analysis in April, Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST ) has continued to show why it is one of the largest shale players in Latin America. Its Q1 2025 results only confirm what we have been observing, combining disciplinedI am an individual investor with over five years of experience in personal investing, holding a PhD in Economics from UCEMA. My investment approach focuses on value companies with solid long-term potential. I share my knowledge with the community by offering analysis to support individ ...