Vista Energy S.A.B. de CV’s (VIST) shares lost 1.4% on Feb. 26 after reporting weak fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, closing at $50.78 in the latest trading session.Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.VIST’s Q4 Earnings & RevenuesThe upstream energy player reported adjusted earnings per share of 23 cents, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 90 cents. The bottom line also decreased from the prior-year quarter’s level of $2.52.The leading independent oil and gas produc ...

This presentation does not contain all of the Company's financial information. As a result, investors should read this presentation in conjunction with the Company's consolidated financial statements and other financial information available on the Company's website. Some ofthe amounts contained herein are unaudited. Earnings Webcast February 27, 2025 About projections and forward-looking statements Additional information about Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., a sociedad anónima bursátil de capital variable or ...

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (NYSE:VIST) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 27, 2025 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Alejandro Chernacov - Co-Founder, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Conference Call Participants Bruno Montanari - Morgan Stanley Andres Cardona - Citi Tasso Vasconcellos - UBS Alejandro Demichelis - Jefferies Bruno Amorim - Goldman Sachs Walter Chiarvesio - Santander Leonardo Marcondes - Bank of America Marina Mert ...

Group 1 - Vista Oil & Gas reported quarterly earnings of $0.23 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.90 per share, and down from $2.52 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -74.44% [1] - The company posted revenues of $471.32 million for the quarter ended December 2024, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.04%, and up from $309.2 million year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Vista Oil & Gas has not surpassed consensus EPS estimates and has topped consensus revenue estimates only once [2] Group 2 - The stock has lost about 4.8% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has gained 1.3% [3] - The company's earnings outlook is mixed, with current consensus EPS estimates of $1.17 on $506.45 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $6.40 on $2.2 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Integrated - International is currently in the top 30% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable industry outlook [8]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Vista Oil & Gas, despite an expected increase in revenues, which may significantly impact the stock price depending on the actual results compared to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is projected to show earnings of $0.90 per share, reflecting a decline of 64.3% year-over-year, while revenues are expected to reach $468.13 million, an increase of 51.4% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 9.3% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts of the company's performance [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that the Most Accurate Estimate aligns with the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [10][11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Vista Oil & Gas was expected to earn $1.36 per share but only achieved $0.55, leading to a surprise of -59.56%. Over the past four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [12][13]. Conclusion - Vista Oil & Gas does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when evaluating the stock ahead of the earnings release [16].

Company Overview - Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST) is involved in the exploration, extraction, production, and marketing of oil in Latin America, primarily based in Mexico with significant assets in the Argentine Vaca Muerta basin located in the province of Neuquen [1] Investment Focus - The company is appealing to investors looking for value in the commodities sector, particularly in oil and gas, metals, and mining, especially in emerging markets [1] - It emphasizes sustained free cash flows, low leverage, and sustainable debt levels, targeting companies in distress with high recovery potential [1] Shareholder Value - Vista Energy is noted for its pro-shareholder attitude, maintaining solid and sustained buyback programs and dividend distributions over time [1]

Group 1 - Vista Energy is a leading oil and gas company operating in Argentina's Vaca Muerta basin, having been publicly listed for just over five years [1] - The company's stock price has experienced significant growth, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] Group 2 - Nabeel Bukhari, a law graduate with expertise in financial analysis, provides insights into business dynamics by combining legal knowledge with financial perspectives [1] - His work has been published on respected platforms and featured in well-known publications, enhancing the credibility of his analyses [1]

Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy (NYSE: VIST) is highlighted as the best oil stock in Latin America due to its growth profile, execution track record, and valuation [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The article emphasizes the growth potential of Vista Energy, suggesting it has a strong execution track record and favorable valuation metrics [1]. - The analyst has updated estimates for Vista Energy and increased the price target, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [1]. Group 2: Analyst Experience - The analyst brings over 30 years of experience in critically analyzing various industries, including airlines, oil, retail, mining, fintech, and e-commerce, which adds credibility to the analysis [1]. - The analyst's background includes navigating multiple crises and entrepreneurial ventures, providing a diverse foundation for understanding market dynamics [1].

Core Viewpoint - Vista Energy S.A.B. de CV (VIST) experienced a 10.2% increase in stock price despite reporting weak Q3 2024 earnings, likely driven by expectations of higher production levels [1] Group 1: Q3 Earnings & Revenues - VIST reported adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents for Q3, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.36 and down from $1.29 in the prior-year quarter [2] - Quarterly revenues reached $462.4 million, up from $302.8 million year-over-year, and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $442.5 million [2] Group 2: Production and Costs - Total production averaged 72,825 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d), a 47% increase from 49,450 Boe/d in the year-ago quarter, with 87.2% being crude oil [4] - Crude oil production rose to 63,499 barrels per day (Bbls/d) from 41,490 Bbls/d year-over-year, while natural gas liquids production increased by 36% and natural gas output by 16% [4] - Lifting expenses for Q3 were $31.6 million, a 44% increase from $21.9 million year-over-year, but lifting costs per Boe declined by 2% to $4.7 [6] Group 3: Realized Prices - The average realized crude oil price was $68.4 per barrel, up from $67.6 year-over-year, while the average realized natural gas price increased to $3.8 per million Btu from $3.3 [5] - Realized natural gas liquids price rose to $315 per metric ton from $233 [5] Group 4: Financial Position - As of September 30, 2024, VIST had $256.03 million in cash and short-term investments, with long-term debt of $725.2 million and short-term debt of $249.9 million [7] - Capital expenditure totaled $368.5 million, with net cash provided by operating activities amounting to $254.9 million [7] Group 5: Guidance and Projections - VIST aims for production of 85 MBoE/d in Q4 2024, with an annual target of 68 to 70 MBoE/d for 2024, and anticipates growth to 95 to 100 MBoE/d in 2025 [8] - Projected adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is between $1,000 million and $1,150 million, expected to rise to $1,500 million to $1,650 million in 2025, with planned capital expenditures of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion for 2025 [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total production reached 72,800 BOEs per day, a 47% increase year-over-year and a 12% increase quarter-over-quarter [4][6] - Oil production was 63,500 barrels per day, reflecting a 53% year-over-year increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase [4][6] - Total revenues for the quarter were $462 million, a 53% increase compared to the same quarter last year [4][7] - Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million, a 37% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted net income of $53 million, resulting in an adjusted EPS of $0.60 per share [5][9] - Free cash flow was negative at $74 million due to increased capital expenditures [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company connected 12 new wells in Q3, totaling 40 new wells year-to-date, on track to meet the annual guidance of 50 to 54 new wells [6][13] - Lifting costs were $4.7 per BOE, down 2% year-over-year but up 5% sequentially due to increased costs in gathering and processing [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Realized oil prices averaged $68.4 per barrel, a 1% increase year-over-year but a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter [7][8] - The company exported 3.5 million barrels of oil during the quarter, a 57% increase from the previous year [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on an export-oriented strategy, increasing oil sales in international markets [8] - The 2025 guidance was updated to forecast production between 95,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, indicating over 40% growth year-over-year [12][14] - The company plans to secure additional midstream capacity and has already secured a third drilling rig and a second frac set under term contracts [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving production targets and highlighted the successful execution of the annual growth program [13] - The company is optimistic about maintaining the current pricing dynamics between domestic and international oil prices due to new regulations [31] Other Important Information - The company executed a $50 million share buyback plan, totaling $100 million for the year [14] - Management indicated that they are still engaged in the competitive process for Exxon's assets in Argentina, viewing them as valuable for future growth [35][36] Q&A Session Summary Question: CapEx increase despite similar well activity - Management confirmed that the increase in CapEx was due to drilling longer laterals and more frac stages, leading to higher expected peak production [17][18] Question: Future well delivery potential - Management indicated that with the new frac set, there is potential to exceed the guidance of 52 to 60 new wells in 2025 [21][22] Question: Production evolution into 2025 - Management projected an average production of 95,000 to 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, with an exit rate above 100,000 barrels per day [26][27] Question: Local vs. export pricing dynamics - Management expects the pricing dynamics to remain stable, with local prices aligning closely with export prices [31] Question: Update on Exxon sale process - Management confirmed continued engagement in the sale process for Exxon's assets, viewing them as strategically beneficial [35][36] Question: Midstream capacity and long-term goals - Management discussed ongoing expansion plans for midstream capacity, particularly the Oldelval expansion expected in early 2025 [44] Question: Trucking activity guidance for Q4 - Management forecasted trucking volumes to average around 23,000 barrels per day in Q4 [48] Question: Lifting costs expectations - Management maintained guidance of $4.5 per barrel for lifting costs, indicating confidence in managing costs despite recent increases [50] Question: Hedging strategy for oil prices - Management stated that current regulations do not allow for a hedging program, and they do not plan to implement one in the near future [54] Question: Flexibility in 2025 guidance - Management confirmed that they have flexibility in their work program to expand production if market conditions allow [56]