Group 1 - Kennedy is a GARP-themed investor focusing on companies with aggressive growth prospects that are expected to become highly profitable within 1-2 years [1] - The investment philosophy emphasizes long-term discipline, consistent alpha generation, and an acknowledgment of risk [1] - The Curious Analyst is an associate of Kennedy Njagi, indicating a collaborative approach in investment analysis [1] Group 2 - There is no stock, option, or similar derivative position held by the analyst in the companies mentioned, but there is a potential for initiating a long position in VST within the next 72 hours [1] - The article expresses the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [1]

Vistra Corp. (VST) stands as a pivotal player in the U.S. energy transition, leveraging its advanced energy storage systems to enhance grid reliability and support the broader integration of renewable energy. The company's strategic investments in large-scale battery facilities position it to capture value from this growing market need. Key Takeaways Vistra's Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility in California, one of the world's largest, exemplifies its leadership in deploying utility-scale storage. These a ...

Core Insights - Vistra Corp. reported second-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.01 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 98 cents by 3.1% and up from 90 cents in the same quarter last year [1][8] - Total revenues for the quarter were $4.25 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.98 billion by 14.8%, but representing a 10.5% increase from $3.85 billion in the year-ago quarter [2][8] Financial Performance - Fuel, purchased power costs, and delivery fees amounted to $1.97 billion, up 23.6% from $1.59 billion in the year-ago quarter [3] - Operating costs totaled $733 million, an increase of 16.7% from $628 million in the previous year [3] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses were $419 million, up 11.7% from $375 million in the year-ago quarter [3] - Operating income was $515 million, down from $808 million in the year-ago quarter [3] Interest and Cash Flow - Interest expenses and related charges were $303 million, reflecting a 25.7% year-over-year increase [4] - Cash and cash equivalents stood at $0.45 billion as of June 30, 2025, down from $1.22 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Net cash flow from operating activities in the first half of 2025 was $1.17 billion, compared to $1.5 billion in the same period last year [5] Capital Expenditures and Liquidity - Total capital expenditures for the first six months of 2025 were $1.46 billion, up from $0.96 billion a year ago [5] - Available liquidity as of June 30, 2025, was $2.62 billion, sufficient to meet near-term obligations [6] Share Repurchase and Future Guidance - Since November 2021, Vistra has executed $5.4 billion in share repurchases, reducing shares outstanding by 30% [6] - The company expects ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for 2025 to be in the range of $5.5-$6.1 billion and ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth to be between $3-$3.6 billion [7] Clean Energy Initiatives - Vistra is expanding its clean energy generation portfolio and has received approval to extend operations of its 1,268-MW Perry Nuclear Power Plant for an additional 20 years, through 2046 [4][8]

Group 1 - Vistra Corp. reported $4.25 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2025, a year-over-year increase of 10.5% [1] - The EPS for the same period was $1.01, compared to $0.90 a year ago, indicating a positive growth in earnings [1] - The reported revenue was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.99 billion, resulting in a surprise of -14.8% [1] Group 2 - The company delivered an EPS surprise of +3.06%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.98 [1] - Total retail electricity sales volumes were 33,267.00 GWh, lower than the estimated 35,391.30 GWh [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Retail was $756 million, exceeding the average estimate of $462.23 million [4] Group 3 - Adjusted EBITDA for Texas was $142 million, below the average estimate of $173.6 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Corporate and Other was -$16 million, significantly lower than the estimated $183.27 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for East was $418 million, compared to the estimated $518.55 million [4] Group 4 - Shares of Vistra have returned +5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.9% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1: Yum China (百胜中国) - In the first half of the year, Yum China's total revenue reached $5.768 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - Operating profit increased by 10% to $703 million, with a second-quarter revenue growth of 4% to $2.8 billion [2] - The company opened 583 new stores, bringing the total to 16,978, with KFC and Pizza Hut achieving significant franchise store targets [2][3] - Same-store sales grew by 1% in Q2, marking the first positive growth since Q1 2024, driven by increased order volume [2] Group 2: Novo Nordisk (诺和诺德) - Novo Nordisk's Q2 total revenue was 76.857 billion Danish Krone, a year-on-year increase of 12.93%, but below analyst expectations [7] - The company lowered its 2025 sales growth forecast to 8-14%, down from 13-21% previously [8] - The diabetes and obesity care segment saw total sales of 71.938 billion Danish Krone, with obesity care sales growing by 47% [8] Group 3: Uber - Uber's Q2 revenue reached $12.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, exceeding analyst expectations [11] - The total order volume grew by 17% to $46.8 billion, with a significant increase in the food delivery segment [11][12] - Uber announced a new $20 billion stock buyback authorization, planning to return 50% of free cash flow to shareholders [12] Group 4: AMD - AMD's Q2 revenue grew by 32% to $7.7 billion, surpassing analyst expectations, but adjusted EPS fell by 30% [16] - The data center business revenue increased by 14% to $3.2 billion, while client and gaming segments showed strong growth [16][17] - AMD expects Q3 revenue of approximately $8.7 billion, higher than analyst forecasts [17] Group 5: Vistra Energy - Vistra Energy's Q2 total revenue was $4.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, but below analyst expectations [21] - The company is acquiring $1.9 billion worth of natural gas generation assets, expected to enhance free cash flow [22] - The stock price increased by 49.12% over the year, with a target price indicating a potential upside of 15.27% [22]

☒ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 FOR THE QUARTERLY PERIOD ENDED JUNE 30, 2025 — OR — Table of Contents UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-Q ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from __ to __ Commission File Number 001-38086 Vistra Corp. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Delaware 36-4833255 6555 Sierra Drive, ...

Core Insights - Constellation Energy Corporation and Vistra are positioned as key beneficiaries of the AI-driven surge in electricity demand, primarily due to their leadership in nuclear power [1][11] - Both companies have demonstrated strong price momentum, reflecting investor confidence in the long-term AI power theme [2] Constellation Energy Corporation - Constellation reported adjusted EPS of $1.91, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.84, with GAAP EPS at $2.67 and revenue of $6.10 billion, surpassing expectations [3] - The quarter's performance was bolstered by its zero-carbon nuclear fleet, favorable clean energy credits, and increased demand from corporate buyers, including a significant 20-year power agreement with Meta Platforms [4] - The company is on track with its acquisition of Calpine and continues to show growth and earnings visibility supported by clean energy policy trends [4] Vistra - Vistra's adjusted EBITDA was $1.35 billion, slightly down from $1.41 billion year-over-year, while revenue increased by approximately 10% to $4.25 billion, though it fell short of consensus [7] - The company announced a definitive agreement to acquire seven natural gas facilities with a total capacity of around 2,600 MW, enhancing its geographic diversification and supporting rising electricity demand from AI data centers [8] - Despite a decline in net income due to higher costs, Vistra reaffirmed its full-year guidance and raised its 2026 EBITDA outlook above $6.8 billion [7] Industry Trends - The rising electricity consumption linked to AI, cloud computing, and hyperscale data centers is creating a significant demand for reliable, low-emission baseload power, particularly from nuclear and clean generation [11] - Both Constellation and Vistra provide investors with exposure to this structural shift, combining stable utility cash flows with long-term growth potential [12] - The earnings reports from both companies reinforce their leadership in the evolving energy economy, with expanding margins and strong forward guidance indicating continued momentum [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vistra achieved adjusted EBITDA of $1,349 million for Q2 2025, with a reaffirmed guidance range for 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5,500 million to $6,100 million and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3,000 million to $3,600 million [8][9][11] - The company reported a year-to-date adjusted EBITDA of $1,003 million, with generation contributing $593 million and retail contributing $756 million [23][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The generation segment benefited from a comprehensive hedging program, with average realized prices nearly $3 per megawatt hour higher compared to the same quarter last year [23] - Retail performance was solid, driven by growth in ERCOT and strong complaint performance against competitors, with Texas business market volumes up 10% year over year [11][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - PJM load hit the highest level in 14 years during a late June heat wave, indicating strong demand growth in major markets [7][15] - Weather-normalized load in PJM grew approximately 2% to 3%, while ERCOT market grew approximately 6% year over year [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Vistra's strategic priorities include leveraging its integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program to enhance earnings visibility and provide downside protection [10][12] - The company plans to acquire seven modern natural gas facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, enhancing its fleet and geographic diversification [9][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving record results for 2025, citing strong demand trends and operational performance despite unplanned outages [7][9] - The company anticipates a significant reduction in solar and energy storage development CapEx for 2026, while continuing to invest in existing projects [30][31] Other Important Information - Vistra successfully renewed the license for its Perinuclear power plant, extending operations for an additional 20 years [13] - The company expects to return approximately $1,800 million of incremental capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends through 2026 [11][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Comanche Peak deal - Management indicated that the strategy is to announce a deal only when finalized, emphasizing the complexity of negotiations and the importance of terms beyond just price [37][39] Question: Texas policy impact on Comanche Peak - Management believes that the project meets existing ERCOT interconnect requirements and does not view new SB6 regulations as a gating item [41][42] Question: Timing for updates on Comanche Peak and other opportunities - Management stated that updates would not be limited to Comanche Peak and that there are multiple opportunities being explored across the fleet [47][48] Question: M&A implications and future deals - Management does not see the current acquisition as precluding other deals and believes there are still opportunities in major markets [49][50] Question: Confidence in contracting momentum - Management noted increased activity in contracting discussions, particularly with hyperscalers, but emphasized the importance of securing the right deals [56][58] Question: Free cash flow conversion improvement - Management expects to increase the targeted conversion rate of adjusted free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA to above 60% starting in 2026 [27][67] Question: Investment grade rating outlook - Management anticipates achieving investment grade ratings through higher EBITDA projections and debt reduction efforts [69][70] Question: PJM capacity auction insights - Management discussed the complexities of capacity pricing and the need for higher auction clears to reflect increased costs of new project development [71][72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved adjusted EBITDA of $1,349 million for the quarter, with a reaffirmed guidance range for 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $5,500 million to $6,100 million and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3,000 million to $3,600 million [7][8][12] - Year-to-date results indicate strong performance, with adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter including $593 million from generation and $756 million from retail [23][24] - The company expects to return approximately $1,800 million of incremental capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends through 2026 [12][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The generation segment benefited from a comprehensive hedging program, with average realized prices nearly $3 per megawatt hour higher compared to the same quarter last year [23] - Retail performance was solid, driven by growth in ERCOT, with Texas business market volumes 10% higher year over year [11][24] - Despite unplanned outages at some units, the generation segment's results highlight the advantages of operating a diversified fleet [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand growth trends persist in major markets, with PJM load hitting the highest level in 14 years during a late June heat wave [6][14] - Weather-normalized load in PJM is growing approximately 2% to 3%, while ERCOT market is growing approximately 6% year over year [14] - The recent PJM capacity auction cleared at elevated prices, indicating a market response to increased demand [16][70] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a diversified solution for energy needs, emphasizing the importance of dispatchable generation across major power markets [7][10] - Plans to acquire seven modern natural gas facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, enhancing the company's footprint in the Northeast [9][21] - The company continues to execute on its strategy of developing solar and energy storage projects, with several sites on schedule for commercial operations in 2025 and 2026 [12][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in meeting or exceeding plans despite ongoing challenges, reaffirming the company's strong position in the market [8][22] - The company anticipates a structural shift in electricity consumption, with significant investment opportunities arising from industrial and commercial sectors [14][16] - Management believes that the current electric grid can reliably serve near-term demand, with excess capacity available [17][75] Other Important Information - The company successfully achieved relicensing of its Perinuclear power plant, extending its operational license by an additional 20 years [13] - The share repurchase program has reduced shares outstanding by approximately 30%, leading to a 50% increase in dividends per share since Q4 2021 [28][29] - The company expects to invest over $700 million in solar and energy storage projects in 2025, with a disciplined approach to capital allocation [29][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on Comanche Peak deal - Management indicated that the strategy is to announce a deal only when finalized, emphasizing the complexity of negotiations and the importance of terms [35][36] Question: Texas policy impact on Comanche Peak - Management believes that the project meets existing ERCOT requirements and does not view new SB6 regulations as a gating item [40][41] Question: Timing for updates on Comanche Peak and other opportunities - Management stated that updates would not be limited to Comanche Peak and that there are multiple opportunities being explored [46][47] Question: M&A implications on future deals - Management does not see the current acquisition as precluding other deals and believes there are still assets of interest [48][49] Question: Free cash flow conversion improvement - Management expects to increase the targeted conversion rate of adjusted free cash flow to adjusted EBITDA to above 60% starting in 2026 [64][66] Question: Investment grade rating outlook - Management anticipates achieving investment grade ratings through higher EBITDA projections and debt reduction efforts [68][69] Question: PJM capacity auction price predictions - Management noted that while capacity prices may fluctuate, the cost of building new projects has increased, impacting future auction clears [70][76]

Second Quarter 2025 Results August 7, 2025 1 Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the industry and markets in which Vistra Corp. ("Vistra") operates and beliefs of and assumptions made by Vistra's management, involve risk ...