Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The AAII Sentiment Survey indicates only 19.4% of respondents are bullish, marking the sixth time in eight weeks below the historical average of 37.5% [1] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index shows a decline in consumer optimism, with the Expectations Index dropping 9.3 points to 72.9, signaling potential recession concerns [1][2] - 27% of consumers expect worsening business conditions over the next 6 to 12 months, the highest level since June 2022 [2] Earnings Performance and Market Trends - Despite low investor sentiment, earnings data reveals strong performance; 77% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS estimates, with a reported earnings growth of 17.8%, the highest since Q4 2021 [9] - Vistra Corp. reported a significant year-over-year earnings increase of 88.5% to $2.81 billion, with revenue rising 16.5% to $17.22 billion, surpassing estimates [8][10] - Vistra's stock remains rated "A" in Louis' Stock Grader system, indicating potential for further growth despite recent market sell-off [10] Investment Strategies and Opportunities - The article emphasizes the importance of separating emotions from investment decisions, advocating for a focus on data-driven strategies [3][5] - The concept of buying quality stocks at reasonable prices during market downturns is highlighted, referencing Warren Buffett's investment philosophy [6] - Keith Kaplan's data-driven system identifies rare bullish signals in the market, suggesting current conditions may lead to a "mega melt-up" similar to historical investment manias [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. (VST) has experienced a significant stock price increase of 138.4% over the past 12 months, outperforming the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry and the broader market, driven by strong retail and commercial operations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The ongoing net income of Vistra was nearly $2.93 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 95.5% [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year growth of 19.75% [11] - Sales estimates for the current quarter (12/2024) are projected at $4.61 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 49.70% [12] Group 2: Market Demand and Operations - Vistra benefits from strong residential and business results in Texas, Midwest, and Northeast markets, with over 95% commercial availability of its generation assets in Q4 [2][20] - The company is experiencing increased demand for clean electricity, driven by the development of large load data centers and electrification of oil field operations, particularly in the Permian Basin [5] - Major tech companies are expected to invest nearly $1 trillion in data centers over the next five years, positioning Vistra to benefit from this rising demand for clean energy [8] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Vistra has a comprehensive hedging program, having hedged 100% of expected production for 2025 and 80% for 2026, providing increased visibility of long-term earnings [6] - The company is expanding its clean energy generation capacity through both organic and inorganic means, with over 70 sites available for future clean energy projects [7][20] Group 4: Shareholder Value - Vistra has returned value to shareholders through a share repurchase program, buying back over $4.9 billion in shares since November 2021, with plans to repurchase an additional $1.9 billion by the end of 2026 [15] - The board has approved a quarterly dividend of 22.35 cents for Q1 2025, targeting an annual dividend payment of $300 million, having raised dividends 15 times in the past five years [16] Group 5: Valuation - Vistra is currently trading at a premium valuation, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.77X, compared to the industry average of 14.4X [17] - The P/E ratio is also higher than that of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK), which stands at 18.12X [19]

Vistra (NYSE: VST ), as well as the other IPPs (independent power producers) with Nuclear generating capacity, have been volatile due to the DeepSeek event but, more importantly, due to as-yet unresolved regulations surrounding co-location deals with data center operators. AddExperience is difficult to learn. After 30 plus years of critically analyzing the nuts and bolts of businesses as diverse as airlines, oil, retail, mining to fintech and ecommerce plus the macro, monetary and political drivers. I conti ...

Financial Performance - Operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024, increased to $17.224 billion, up from $14.779 billion in 2023, representing a growth of 9.9%[421]. - Net income attributable to Vistra for 2024 was $2.659 billion, compared to $1.493 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 77.5%[421]. - The company reported a comprehensive income of $2.826 billion for 2024, compared to $1.491 billion in 2023, indicating a significant improvement[423]. - Total assets increased to $37.770 billion in 2024, up from $32.966 billion in 2023, marking a growth of 14.0%[425]. - The company's total liabilities rose to $32.187 billion in 2024, compared to $27.644 billion in 2023, an increase of 16.5%[425]. - The net income per weighted average share of common stock outstanding increased to $7.16 in 2024 from $3.63 in 2023, a growth of 97.3%[421]. - The company reported a net change in cash of $(2,317) million in 2024, contrasting with a positive change of $3,014 million in 2023[432]. - The company experienced a net unrealized loss from mark-to-market valuations of commodities amounting to $(1,155) million in 2024[430]. Debt and Financing - As of December 31, 2024, Vistra has approximately $3.5 billion in principal amount of variable rate debt, with $2.3 billion hedged through interest rate swaps[399]. - Issuances of long-term debt rose to $3,817 million in 2024, up from $2,498 million in 2023[432]. - The total long-term debt, including amounts due currently, increased to $16.298 billion in 2024 from $14.402 billion in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 13.2%[562]. - The Revolving Credit Facility was increased from $3.175 billion to $3.440 billion in October 2024, extending its maturity date to October 11, 2029[571]. - The estimated long-term debt maturities for 2025 are projected at $885 million, with a significant increase to $3.427 billion in 2027[566]. - The company has identified its retail trade name intangible assets as indefinite-lived, with an evaluation indicating that their fair value exceeds carrying value as of October 1, 2024[553]. Acquisitions and Mergers - The company completed the acquisition of Energy Harbor Holdings LLC for a total cash consideration of $3.1 billion, along with a 15% minority interest valued at $1.5 billion, totaling $4.6 billion[413]. - The Energy Harbor Merger resulted in a total purchase price of $4,596 million, including cash consideration of $3,100 million and 15% of the fair value of net assets contributed to Vistra Vision valued at $1,496 million[486]. - The acquisition date fair value of Energy Harbor was $5,407 million, which includes identifiable net assets acquired of $5,183 million and goodwill of $224 million[490]. - Acquisition costs incurred in the Energy Harbor Merger totaled $25 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $24 million in 2023, classified as selling, general, and administrative expenses[493]. - Vistra Operations acquired a combined 15% noncontrolling interest in Vistra Vision for approximately $3.2 billion in cash, closing the transaction on December 31, 2024[494]. Risk Management - The company employs various risk management practices, including Value at Risk (VaR) methodologies and stress test scenarios, to monitor market risks[392]. - The company’s credit risk is minimized through evaluating potential counterparties and employing risk mitigation practices such as margin deposits and letters of credit[400]. - The average Value at Risk (VaR) for Vistra's commodity portfolio increased to $236 million in 2024 from $190 million in 2023, reflecting higher volumes following the Energy Harbor Merger[397]. - The average VaR for 2024 reflects a high of $371 million and a low of $86 million, indicating fluctuations in market conditions[397]. Tax and Regulatory Matters - The company is eligible for the nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) starting in 2024, which provides support as unit revenues decline[394]. - The company qualifies for tax incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which may provide transferable tax credits[454]. - The effective tax rate for the year ended December 31, 2024, was 18.9%, compared to 25.4% in 2023[523]. - The company has $3.2 billion in pre-tax net operating loss (NOL) carryforwards for federal income tax purposes that will begin to expire in 2031[525]. Segment Performance - The company operates five reportable segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure, indicating a diversified business model[443]. - Revenue from retail energy charges in ERCOT increased to $8.064 billion in 2024, up from $7.674 billion in 2023, reflecting a growth of 5.1%[496][499]. - Wholesale generation revenue from ISO/RTOs totaled $1.978 billion in 2024, compared to $2.909 billion in 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 32%[496][499]. - The East segment reported total revenues of $5.394 billion in 2024, up from $3.979 billion in 2023, marking an increase of about 35.5%[496][499]. Asset Management - The company recorded $5.6 billion in property, plant, and equipment, which includes the value of three nuclear power plants acquired[414]. - Property, plant, and equipment net value increased to $18.173 billion in 2024 from $12.432 billion in 2023, with total depreciation expenses of $1.670 billion in 2024[537]. - The balance of accumulated depreciation increased to $8.020 billion in 2024 from $6.657 billion in 2023[537]. - The company’s construction work in progress increased to $1.060 billion in 2024 from $522 million in 2023[537]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash provided by operating activities was $4,563 million in 2024, compared to $5,453 million in 2023[430]. - Total cash used in investing activities increased to $5,276 million in 2024 from $2,145 million in 2023[432]. - The ending balance of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash decreased to $1,222 million in 2024 from $3,539 million in 2023[432]. - Capital expenditures, including nuclear fuel purchases, totaled $2,078 million in 2024, compared to $1,676 million in 2023[430].

Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2024 Results February 27, 2025 1 Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the industry and markets in which Vistra Corp. ("Vistra") operates and beliefs of and assumptions made by Vistra's managem ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vistra Corp. reported a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of the original guidance range, even before considering a $545 million benefit from the nuclear production tax credit recognized in Q4 [11][39] - The adjusted free cash flow before growth for 2024 was approximately $2.888 billion, implying a conversion ratio of about 57% from adjusted EBITDA [40] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth range of $3 billion to $3.6 billion [41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail business achieved performance levels not seen in the past two decades, driven by strong customer account growth and disciplined margin management [10][19] - The nuclear fleet delivered a capacity factor of 92%, while the gas and coal fleet achieved commercial availability of approximately 95% [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Actual load growth in PJM and ERCOT exceeded historical rates, with new records for winter peak load of 145 gigawatts in PJM and approximately 80 gigawatts in ERCOT [27][28] - Load forecasts from PJM and ERCOT have been consistently revised upwards, indicating accelerating growth trends [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Vistra Corp. is focused on a diversified portfolio of generation assets, including nuclear and gas, combined with a strong retail business to operate effectively in volatile power markets [12] - The company is developing contracted solar and battery projects in competitive markets and plans to convert its Toledo Creek coal plant to a gas fuel plant by 2027 [15][22] - The strategic priorities include maintaining a comprehensive hedging program and increasing visibility into long-term financial outlook [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate regulatory and market challenges, emphasizing the importance of clarity in policy frameworks for future growth [35][36] - The management highlighted the need for effective communication with policymakers to address grid reliability and load growth concerns [35][36] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $5.9 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends since the capital return plan was initiated [20] - Vistra Corp. expects to spend over $700 million on solar and energy storage projects in 2025, including projects supported by contracts with Amazon and Microsoft [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timeline for potential deals - Management indicated that the timing of announcements for data center deals depends on regulatory clarity and ongoing discussions with major hyperscalers and data center developers [53][60] Question: Focus on Comanche Peak opportunity - Management acknowledged that Comanche Peak is currently considered the most attractive opportunity due to land availability and construction timelines [63] Question: Pricing levels for potential deals - Management refrained from discussing specific pricing levels but noted that the value proposition and complexity of deals would influence margins [89] Question: Interest in gas plant colocation - Management confirmed ongoing discussions about gas plant colocation with data center developers, emphasizing the need for regulatory clarity [98][100] Question: Likelihood of cap and floor proposal passing - Management expressed confidence that the cap and floor proposal is likely to be approved, which would help stabilize market volatility [115] Question: Concerns regarding SB6 legislation - Management highlighted that while SB6 has provisions beneficial for the market, clarity on transmission charges and remote disconnect switches remains a concern for potential customers [122][124]

Key TakeawaysVistra on Thursday posted better-than-expected fourth quarter profits while revenue fell short.The company recorded a profit compared to a net loss in the fourth quarter a year ago.Shares have more than tripled in value over the last 12 months on optimism that Vistra and other nuclear energy providers will benefit from rising power demand. Vistra Corp. (VST) on Thursday reported better profits than expected for the fourth quarter amid rising demand for its nuclear power. The Texas-based electri ...

Burke concluded, "These accomplishments, executed by our integrated business working as One Team, delivered on our commitment to provide reliable, affordable electricity to our customers and strong financial performance to our shareholders. Our company is well-positioned to serve customer needs and grow with the overall electrification trends in our industry. It is an exciting time to be part of Vistra, and we look forward to executing our 2025 priorities." • GAAP full-year 2024 Net Income of $2,812 million ...

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. is expected to report improved top and bottom-line figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, with significant increases in revenue and earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][4]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $4.38 billion, reflecting a 42.34% increase from the year-ago figure of $3.08 billion [2][3]. - For the next quarter, the revenue estimate is $4.88 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 59.78% [3]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.59, indicating a substantial increase of 431.25% from the previous year's earnings [4]. - The earnings estimates for the current year and next year are $19.23 billion and $21.31 billion, respectively, showing a year-over-year growth of 30.12% and 10.81% [3]. Adjusted EBITDA - The consensus estimate for Adjusted EBITDA - Retail is $434.54 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 6.2% [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA - Texas is estimated at $302.06 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 31.3% [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA - East is pegged at $638.38 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 251.6% [8]. Market Performance - Vistra's shares have outperformed the industry, gaining 192.8% over the past year compared to the industry's growth of 24% [11]. - The company is currently trading at a premium with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 21.75X, compared to the industry average of 14.58X [14]. Strategic Initiatives - Vistra is enhancing its generation capabilities through both organic and inorganic initiatives, which is expected to create synergies and improve performance [17]. - The company’s integrated business model provides a competitive advantage by stabilizing earnings and cash flow against commodity price fluctuations [7][19]. Clean Energy Focus - The demand for clean electricity is rising in Vistra's operational regions, and the company is increasing its clean energy generation capacity through acquisitions and organic growth [19].

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. is anticipated to show significant improvements in both revenue and earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a report scheduled for February 27, 2024 [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's fourth-quarter revenues is $4.38 billion, reflecting a 42.34% increase from the previous year [2]. - The estimated earnings per share for the fourth quarter is $1.59, indicating a substantial increase of 431.25% year-over-year [2][3]. - For the current quarter, the high estimate for earnings per share is $2.40, while the low estimate is $1.17 [3]. Earnings Performance - Vistra has surpassed earnings expectations in one of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 7.05% [4][5]. - The company has experienced significant fluctuations in earnings surprises, with the most notable being a 323.39% surprise in the quarter ending September 2024 [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Vistra currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook [8]. - The company's shares have appreciated by 70% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 2.1% [15]. Growth Drivers - The increasing demand for clean electricity, particularly from large U.S. data centers and the electrification of the Permian region, is expected to drive load growth for Vistra [11]. - The company has been expanding its residential customer base, which is anticipated to contribute to fresh demand for its services [12]. Shareholder Value - Vistra has executed $4.6 billion in share repurchases since November 2021, which has positively impacted earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding shares [13]. - The company plans to continue its share buyback program, aiming to repurchase at least $3.25 billion worth of shares between 2024 and 2026 [13]. Operational Strategy - Vistra employs a hedging program to mitigate the impact of market fluctuations, with 100% of its 2024 generation volume hedged [14]. - Despite rising operating costs, including a 36.4% increase in operating expenses, the hedging strategy is expected to secure generation volumes for the fourth quarter [14]. Competitive Advantage - Vistra's integrated business model provides a competitive edge over non-integrated competitors, with ongoing initiatives to enhance generation capabilities [20]. - The integration of Energy Harbor into Vistra's operations is expected to create synergies and improve overall performance [20]. Industry Context - Vistra operates in a region with increasing demand for clean electricity, positioning the company to benefit from this trend through both acquisitions and organic growth [22].