Key Takeaways The Southern Company offers higher dividends, lower debt and better valuation than Vistra. VST's earnings and sales growth estimates outpace SO's, supported by nuclear and clean hydrogen projects. Vistra and The Southern Company continue to add new clean energy generation assets to their portfolio.The companies operating in the Zacks Utility -Electric Power industry offer a compelling opportunity due to their stable cash flows and regulated business models. Domestic-focused utilities typical ...

Core Insights - Vistra Corp.'s disciplined hedging strategy is fundamental to its financial strength and operational stability, with nearly 100% of anticipated 2025 generation volumes and around 90% for 2026 hedged as of May 2, 2025 [1][8] - The hedging approach allows Vistra to secure steady revenues and predictable margins, minimizing downside risks and supporting consistent financial performance in a volatile market [2][4] - The company's hedging program provides short-term earnings visibility while allowing for upside exposure to potential market strength beyond the hedge horizon [3][4] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's earnings per share indicates an increase of 2.81% for 2025 and 2.84% for 2026 over the past 60 days [7] - Vistra's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) stands at 87.33%, significantly higher than the industry average of 10.09%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [8][11] Market Position - Vistra's shares have increased by 108.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry's growth of 18.3%, attributed to strong retail and commercial operations [11]

Company Performance - Vistra Corp. closed at $185.10, with a daily increase of +2.19%, outperforming the S&P 500's loss of 0.22% [1] - The stock has risen by 17.07% over the past month, contrasting with the Utilities sector's decline of 2.34% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.45% [1] Upcoming Earnings - Vistra Corp. is projected to report earnings of $1.34 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 48.89% [2] - Revenue is expected to reach $5.27 billion, indicating a 37.16% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] Fiscal Year Estimates - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are estimated at $6.23 per share, a decrease of -11% from the previous year, while revenue is projected at $22.2 billion, an increase of +28.91% [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates are crucial as they reflect near-term business trends and analysts' confidence in performance [3] Zacks Rank and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), indicates Vistra Corp. currently holds a rank of 3 (Hold) [5] - The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has increased by 5.88% over the last 30 days [5] - Vistra Corp. has a Forward P/E ratio of 29.07, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 17.71, and a PEG ratio of 2.21, compared to the industry average of 2.59 [6] Industry Context - The Utility - Electric Power industry is ranked 70 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the top 29% of over 250 industries [7] - Top-rated industries tend to outperform lower-rated ones by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Vistra Corp. is strategically positioned to benefit from the clean energy transition, focusing on a diversified generation portfolio and investments in zero-carbon resources, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 [1][9] Group 1: Clean Energy Transition - Vistra is replacing its aging fossil-fuel fleet with low-emission, long-duration assets, aligning with the U.S. clean energy trajectory, which reduces compliance risks and captures growth from new market opportunities [2] - The company has retired over 15,100 megawatts (MW) of fossil fuel-based generation since 2010 and plans to retire an additional 20,000 MW by 2027, while adding 7,922 MW of zero-carbon generation since 2018 [3][9] - Growth investments through 2026 are focused on solar and battery developments, enhancing efficiency in select gas assets, improving emissions profiles, and creating resilient earnings streams [4] Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - Vistra's shift toward clean energy enhances its earnings capacity and valuation potential, driven by rising demand for low-emission power due to electrification and environmental regulations [5] - Vistra shares have rallied 38.7% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry, which grew by 1.2% [11] - The company is currently trading at a premium valuation with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 25.91X, compared to the industry average of 15.06X [10]

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. (VST) has experienced a significant stock price increase of 41.3% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry, which grew by only 3.5% due to strong retail and commercial operations [1][8]. Group 1: Market Position and Performance - The company benefits from robust demand for its services in Texas, Midwest, and Northeast markets, positioning it well to capitalize on President Trump's executive order aimed at quadrupling U.S. nuclear energy production by 2050 [2][14]. - Vistra has outperformed both the Zacks Utilities sector and the S&P 500 over the past six months [3]. - The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating a bullish trend [6]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - Rising demand for clean electricity, driven by AI-powered data centers and electrification of oil field operations, particularly in the Permian Basin, is a key growth driver for Vistra [11]. - The company has a diverse energy generation mix, including solar, nuclear, and natural gas, which supports its strong performance [11]. - Vistra has fully hedged its expected output for 2025 and secured 80% of its projected production for 2026, enhancing financial stability [12]. Group 3: Nuclear Operations and Capacity - The company is positioned to modernize its nuclear operations efficiently, aided by recent executive orders that expedite project approvals [13]. - Vistra's total generation capacity is 41,000 MW, spanning various energy sources, which aligns with the increasing energy demand from commercial and industrial sectors [14]. Group 4: Financial Metrics - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year decline in VST's 2025 earnings per share, while 2026 earnings are expected to improve [15]. - Vistra's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 24.03X, significantly higher than the industry average of 15.17X [18]. - The company's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) stands at 87.33%, well above the industry average of 10.13% [21]. Group 5: Shareholder Value - Vistra has been actively increasing shareholder value through a share repurchase program, having bought back over $5.2 billion in shares since November 2021, with plans to repurchase an additional $1.5 billion by the end of 2026 [24]. - The company has also approved a quarterly dividend of 22.50 cents for Q2 2025, targeting an annual dividend payment of $300 million, having raised its dividend 15 times in the past five years [25]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Vistra's comprehensive hedging program and planned clean energy projects will facilitate a transition to more clean electricity generation [26]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rising demand for clean electricity, with its hedging strategy improving future earnings visibility [27].

After reaching an important support level, Vistra Corp. (VST) could be a good stock pick from a technical perspective. VST recently experienced a "golden cross" event, which saw its 50-day simple moving average breaking out above its 200-day simple moving average.Considered an important signifier for a bullish breakout, a golden cross is a technical chart pattern that's formed when a stock's short-term moving average breaks above a longer-term moving average; the most common crossover involves the 50-day an ...

Group 1 - Vistra Corp. has experienced a significant share price increase of over 250% in 2024, gaining attention from both institutional and retail investors [1] - The company is characterized by growth in revenue, earnings, and free cash flow, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1] - Vistra Corp. is recognized for its excellent growth prospects and favorable valuations, appealing to investors seeking steadily growing companies [1]

Core Insights - Vistra Corp. (VST) is strategically positioned to benefit from President Trump's executive order aimed at quadrupling U.S. nuclear energy production by 2050, which includes expedited licensing and substantial federal investment in nuclear infrastructure [1][9] Group 1: Company Positioning and Strategy - Vistra has a diversified clean energy generation portfolio that includes nuclear assets, allowing for efficient and cost-effective expansion or modernization of its nuclear operations [2] - The Nuclear Regulatory Commission's shortened approval timelines could fast-track projects, providing Vistra with a strategic advantage in delivering reliable, clean power [2] - The company plans to invest in its nuclear fleet, aligning with the rising demand for clean energy driven by electrification in various sectors [5] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The executive order prioritizes domestic uranium supply and encourages reactor development near military bases and AI data centers, which could lead to government contracts for Vistra [3] - The U.S. nuclear capacity is projected to increase from 100 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050, benefiting companies like Vistra [6] Group 3: Financial Performance - Vistra's stock has gained 18.5% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Utility Electric Power industry's decline of 0.4% [8][9] - The company is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 25.46X compared to the industry average of 15.2X [11] Group 4: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST's 2025 earnings per share shows a decline year over year, while 2026 earnings per share are expected to improve [13] - Current estimates for 2025 earnings per share are $5.91, with a year-over-year growth estimate of -15.57%, while 2026 estimates are $7.95, showing a growth of 34.59% [14]

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Industry Overview - Investing in stocks within the Zacks Electric – Power industry is advantageous due to the shift toward clean energy and strong government support, driven by rising electricity demand from electric vehicles, AI-driven data centers, digital infrastructure, and electric heating [1] - Legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act provides tax incentives and grants that lower investment risks and enhance returns in renewable energy and energy storage, creating a favorable environment for long-term growth [2] - Technological advancements are improving energy production and distribution efficiency, with falling costs of solar and wind energy and innovations in battery storage and smart grid technology expanding investment opportunities [3] Company Analysis: Vistra Corp. (VST) - Vistra Corp. presents an investment opportunity due to its strategic positioning in the U.S. energy landscape, with a diversified portfolio totaling 40.65 gigawatts of capacity, including natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage assets [5] - The acquisition of Energy Harbor has significantly increased VST's nuclear capacity, aligning with the demand for reliable, low-carbon energy sources [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 15.57% for 2025, followed by growth of 34.59% for 2026, with long-term earnings growth per share projected at 10.20% [8] Company Analysis: NRG Energy Inc. (NRG) - NRG Energy is positioned to capitalize on the evolving energy landscape, with stable financial performance and strategic initiatives aimed at meeting rising electricity demand from data centers and AI technologies [6] - The acquisition of 18 natural gas power plants from LS Power is expected to double NRG's generation capacity to 25 gigawatts, enhancing its ability to supply reliable energy across nine states [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests year-over-year earnings growth of 10.54% for 2025 and 20.34% for 2026, with long-term earnings growth per share pegged at 16.20% [11] Financial Metrics Comparison - Vistra's current Return on Equity (ROE) is 87.33%, compared to NRG's ROE of 73.78%, both outperforming the industry's ROE of 10.13% [13] - NRG Energy currently has a dividend yield of 1.12%, while Vistra Energy's yield is 0.57%, both lower than the industry's yield of 3.19% [14] Capital Expenditure Plans - Vistra plans to invest $2.3 billion in 2025 for maintaining nuclear assets and developing solar and energy storage [15] - NRG Energy has announced a $750-million organic growth plan for 2025-2029, focusing on customer-centric strategies and organic growth initiatives [16] Conclusion - Both NRG and Vistra are leading energy providers committed to clean energy development, positioning them as key operators in the transition to a low-carbon economy [18] - NRG is expanding through strategic acquisitions and organic growth, while Vistra is investing in clean energy initiatives to remain competitive [17]