Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.17%, while the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up +0.77%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -0.80% [1] - Weakness in chipmakers, particularly Nvidia, which is down more than -2%, is impacting the broader market due to regulatory actions from China's Cyberspace Administration [2][11] - The overall market is negatively affected by the decline in major technology stocks, with Amazon, Tesla, and Meta Platforms all down more than -1% [12] Economic Indicators - US housing news showed weaker-than-expected results, with August housing starts falling -8.5% month-over-month to 1.307 million, below expectations of 1.365 million [3] - Building permits also fell unexpectedly by -3.7% month-over-month to a 5.25-year low of 1.312 million, against expectations of an increase [3] - MBA mortgage applications rose +29.7% in the week ended September 12, with refinancing applications up +57.7% [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve approved a quarter-percentage-point rate cut and indicated two additional cuts are expected before the end of the year due to concerns over the labor market [1][5] - The market anticipates a total of about 70 basis points in rate cuts by year-end, with a focus on the Fed's new economic forecasts [5] Company-Specific Developments - Uber Technologies is down more than -4% following insider selling by CEO Khosrowshahi, who sold $28.6 million in shares [13] - Manchester United reported a Q4 loss and cut its 2026 revenue outlook, leading to a decline of more than -6% in its stock [12] - Roivant Sciences is up more than +12% after its drug met primary endpoints in a Phase 3 trial [14] - Workday is up more than +8% after an upgrade from Guggenheim Securities [14] - Walmart is up more than +2% following a price target increase from Bank of America [15]

Group 1 - Zillow's stock experienced an increase following an upgrade from Bernstein, which highlighted improving earnings quality and the potential for interest rates to decrease [2] - Z stock rose by 2.28% to $90.57 in pre-market trading, while ZG stock increased by 2.98% to $87.64 [2]

Upgrades Summary - Loop Capital upgraded Netflix (NFLX) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $1,350, increased from $1,150, citing "exceptional" engagement on the platform in Q3 and a "strong" Q4 content slate [2] - Guggenheim upgraded Workday (WDAY) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $285, indicating that Workday will be well positioned to accelerate growth when the environment improves [2] - Piper Sandler also upgraded Workday to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $235, up from $220 [2] - Bernstein upgraded Zillow Group (ZG) to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $105, increased from $75, highlighting mid-teens revenue growth with Rentals and Showcase as growth drivers [2] - Roth Capital upgraded Kroger (KR) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $75, up from $66, noting strong alternative profit streams while the stock's valuation lags peers [2] - Berenberg upgraded AbbVie (ABBV) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $270, increased from $170, stating the company has "successfully navigated the largest drug patent expiry in the world" [2]

Looking at options trading activity among components of the Russell 3000 index, there is noteworthy activity today in Enphase Energy Inc. (Symbol: ENPH), where a total volume of 33,199 contracts has been traded thus far today, a contract volume which is representative of approximately 3.3 million underlying shares (given that every 1 contract represents 100 underlying shares). That number works out to 47.8% of ENPH's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 6.9 million shares. Particularly high ...

Mortgage Rates Overview - Mortgage rates are trending lower ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut, with the current 30-year mortgage rate at 6.16%, down 12 basis points since Friday [1] - The 15-year fixed interest rate has decreased by three basis points to 5.46% [1] Current Mortgage Rates - Current national average mortgage rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.16% - 20-year fixed: 5.68% - 15-year fixed: 5.46% - 5/1 ARM: 6.65% - 7/1 ARM: 6.58% - 30-year VA: 5.78% - 15-year VA: 5.29% - 5/1 VA: 5.94% [4] Refinance Rates - Refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the current national average for 30-year fixed refinance at 6.20% [15] Impact of Federal Reserve Decisions - The trajectory of future mortgage rates is closely tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions, with a 96% chance predicted for a rate decrease at the upcoming meeting [13] - Mortgage rates have been falling since early September, but their reaction to a potential Fed rate cut remains uncertain [14] Long-term Outlook - Economists do not expect significant drops in mortgage rates before the end of 2025, with any potential decreases in 2026 likely to be modest [16][17]

Company Overview - Zillow is recognized as a household name with strong brand awareness, attracting over 240 million average monthly unique users across its apps and websites [1] Business Model - The company is developing a "housing super app" aimed at becoming a comprehensive platform for all things related to moving, including buying, selling, renting, and financing properties [1]

Company Overview - Zillow is recognized as a household name with strong brand awareness, attracting over 240 million average monthly unique users across its apps and websites [1] Business Model - The company is developing a "housing super app" aimed at becoming a comprehensive platform for all things related to moving, including buying, selling, renting, and financing properties [1]

Group 1 - Zillow and Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices have entered an agreement to provide U.S.-based agents access to Zillow Showcase, an AI-powered premium listing experience [1][2] - The partnership aims to equip agents with advanced technology and digital marketing tools to enhance their competitiveness in the real estate market [2][3] - Zillow Showcase listings are expected to expedite sales, with properties selling for 2% more and being more likely to go pending within the first 14 days on the market compared to non-Showcase listings [3][4] Group 2 - The Showcase product features an interactive design that includes high-resolution images and room-by-room photo organization, which increases exposure and engagement with potential buyers [3][4] - Continuous enhancements to Showcase, such as the introduction of SkyTour, aim to provide a more immersive home shopping experience [4] - Agents can access performance dashboards for their Showcase listings, allowing them to track data and analytics for better decision-making [4] Group 3 - Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices has approximately 45,000 real estate professionals and over 1,400 offices globally, completing more than USD 127.7 billion in real estate sales in 2024 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Zillow Group has faced significant challenges since the pandemic, including a sharp decline in stock value due to internal missteps and changing macroeconomic conditions, but recent improvements in fundamentals and technical indicators suggest a potential recovery [4][11][18]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Context - Zillow Group's stock price has fluctuated dramatically, ranging from $18 to $212, and is currently down nearly 50% from its 2021 high [5][4]. - The stock has shown recent momentum, increasing nearly 20% in the last three months and approaching its 2025 high of $85.29 [14][18]. - A Golden Cross technical signal has formed, indicating a potential bullish trend, similar to a previous occurrence that led to an 80% appreciation in six months [12][11]. Group 2: Company Challenges and Strategic Missteps - Zillow's iBuying program, Zillow Offers, launched in 2018, faced significant issues, including overpaying for homes and failing to adapt to local market conditions, leading to substantial losses [9][10]. - By Q3 2021, Zillow reported a $422 million loss from the Zillow Offers segment, prompting the shutdown of the program and layoffs [10][11]. Group 3: Recent Developments and Financial Performance - Zillow's Q2 2025 revenue reached $655 million, a 15% year-over-year increase, driven significantly by rental revenue, which grew 36% year-over-year [18][19]. - The company reported earnings per share of 40 cents, missing the analysts' estimate of 44 cents, but this was largely attributed to increased marketing expenses and strategic investments [19][18]. - Following the Q2 report, 10 research firms raised their price targets for Zillow, with a new consensus price estimate of $85.62, indicating a 7% upside from current prices [20][17].

Group 1 - The article discusses a positive outlook on Zillow Group (NASDAQ: ZG), with a recommendation to buy based on expectations of achieving FY 2029 EBITDA guidance [1] - The author emphasizes a fundamentals-based approach to value investing, focusing on companies with long-term durability and robust balance sheets rather than just low multiples [1] - There is a recognition of the risks involved in investing in successful companies, particularly the importance of valuation, while also noting that in some cases, the potential for growth may outweigh immediate price concerns [1]