证券研究报告——市场日报 证券研究报告——市场日报 行情回顾 2024.11.19 （预计发布时间：2024.11.20） 周二（11 月 19 日），三大指数早盘震荡 走低，午后持续下行触底，尾盘触底反弹，走 出深"V"趋势，三大指数悉数翻红上涨，三大 大同证券研究中心 指数收红，创指尾盘涨幅达到 3%。截至收盘， 分析师：景剑文 上证指数（+0.67%）收报 3346.01 点，深证成 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 指（+1.90%）收报 10743.84 点，创业板指 （+3.00%）收报 2256.61 点。两市量能持续收 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 缩，不足 1.6 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申万 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 Ⅰ级行业多数上涨，有色金属、电子、电力设 A 座 F12、F13 备领涨，建筑装饰、煤炭、食品饮料领跌。 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 三大指数深 V 反弹 证监会发声完善相关规则 风险提示 量能持续收缩引起市场扰动 当日要闻 证监会：及时完善股份减持、量化交易、融券等相关制度规则和相关监管措施。证监 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Short-term replenishment willingness across various segments is strong, and with demand uplift, prices are expected to rebound [3][4] - Thermal coal prices are experiencing overall fluctuations, with a positive outlook for thermal coal due to increased demand during the winter heating peak [4][46] - Coking coal prices are currently underperforming, and future performance will depend on policy implementation in related sectors such as real estate and infrastructure [4][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal industry performed moderately, ranking in the middle among 31 industries, with a weekly decline of 3.45% [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.52%, indicating a broader market downturn affecting coal stocks [7] Thermal Coal - Strong replenishment willingness is observed, with terminal power plants increasing daily consumption of thermal coal [4][9] - The average daily inventory of thermal coal at northern ports reached a record high of 27.5863 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2613 million tons [11] - Prices for thermal coal at various production sites showed mixed trends, with Inner Mongolia's price at 656 CNY/ton, down 11 CNY/ton week-on-week [9][11] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices remain low, with the average price for various types around 810 CNY/ton for Shanxi Gujiao No. 2 coking coal, unchanged from the previous week but down 630 CNY/ton year-on-year [23] - The average daily inventory of coking coal at major ports is at 4.4621 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 238.95 thousand tons [25][27] Shipping Situation - Shipping capacity has rebounded slightly, with an average of 56 vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports, up by 8 vessels week-on-week [34] - Freight rates have generally decreased, influenced by low market demand [34] Industry News - The new Energy Law will take effect on January 1, 2025, establishing a legal foundation for the energy sector [40] - A total of 36 listed coal companies have released their Q3 performance forecasts, with 27 expecting profit increases [40]

证券研究报告——市场日报 2024.11.18 （预计发布时间：2024.11.19） 周一（11 月 18 日），三大指数早盘短暂 拉升，之后震荡回落，午后行情走低，三大指 数跌幅扩大，尾盘小幅拉升，跌幅收窄，三大 大同证券研究中心 指数再度回落，创业板指跌逾 2%。截至收盘， 分析师：景剑文 上证指数（-0.21%）收报 3323.85 点，深证成 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 指（-1.91%）收报 10544.02 点，创业板指（- 2.35%）收报 2190.95 点。两市量能持续收缩， 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 但仍维持 1.7 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申万 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 Ⅰ级行业多数下跌，煤炭、建筑装饰、银行领 A 座 F12、F13 涨，计算机、传媒、社会服务领跌。 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 三大指数再度回落 两市量能持续收缩 证券研究报告——市场日报 行情回顾 风险提示 量能持续收缩引起市场扰动 当日要闻 置换隐性债务！多地启动新一轮专项债发行进程 新发规模逾 2200 亿元。11 月 8 日 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the ChiNext index, which rose by over 3% on November 11, 2024, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to enhance the professional capabilities of investment banking, investment, and research to foster core competitiveness in the industry [2] - Foreign capital inflow into Chinese stock ETFs has surged, with the total assets of five major Chinese stock ETFs listed in the U.S. exceeding $28 billion, marking an increase of approximately $14 billion since the end of August [2] Market Performance - The major indices showed a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,470.07 points, up by 0.51%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 11,388.57 points, up by 2.03% [1][3] - The ChiNext index recorded a rise of 3.05%, reflecting strong performance in the growth sector [1][3] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 25,077.28 billion yuan, with 3,936 stocks rising and 1,326 stocks declining, indicating a favorable market environment [4] Sector Performance - The electronics sector led the gains with a rise of 4.65%, followed by the computer sector at 4.35% and the media sector at 4.30% [6] - Conversely, the coal sector experienced a decline of 1.54%, and the banking sector fell by 1.40%, indicating weakness in traditional industries [6] - The report also notes that the real estate sector decreased by 1.05%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the property market [6] Capital Flow - The report indicates a net inflow of capital into the media and automotive sectors, while the banking and coal sectors saw significant outflows [8] - The overall market sentiment appears to favor sectors with growth potential, such as technology and media, while traditional sectors face headwinds [8]

Market Overview - On November 8, 2024, the three major indices opened higher but subsequently fluctuated downwards, closing in the red. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.53% to 3452.30 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.66% to 11161.70 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.24% to 2321.59 points. The total trading volume exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan [1][2]. Policy Developments - The National People's Congress announced a plan to alleviate local government debt pressure by directly arranging 1 trillion yuan for debt management over the next five years, with 800 billion yuan allocated annually from new local government bonds [2]. - The People's Bank of China is revising monetary supply statistics to better reflect the real situation of money supply, aiming to align social financing scale and monetary supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.50% and 4.75%, marking the second consecutive rate cut. This decision aligns with market expectations and reflects ongoing economic expansion in the U.S. [2]. Index Performance - The major indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.24%. The total number of stocks that rose was 2,218, while 3,043 stocks fell [3][4]. Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the defense and military industry led with a gain of 2.94%, followed by the computer sector with a 1.53% increase. In contrast, the real estate sector saw a decline of 3.29%, and non-bank financials fell by 2.53% [6][7].

Group 1: Economic and Policy Insights - The U.S. presidential election results in Trump's victory, which may lead to increased trade protectionism and inflationary pressures on China[3] - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, from a target range of 4.75%-5% to 4.5%-4.75%[4] - China's debt reduction plan includes a total of 10 trillion yuan, with 6 trillion yuan allocated for local government debt replacement over three years and 4 trillion yuan in new special bonds over five years[6] Group 2: Debt Management and Economic Impact - The plan aims to reduce local governments' hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, significantly easing debt pressure[6] - Local governments will save approximately 120 billion yuan annually in interest payments, allowing for a focus on high-quality development and domestic demand stimulation[6] - The expected increase in fiscal spending in Q4 2024 is projected to rise to 9.2% year-on-year, up from a mere 2% in the first three quarters[1] Group 3: Market Implications - The debt reduction measures are expected to support the A-share market, as historical debt reduction has led to positive market trends[2] - Investment focus should shift towards domestic demand, technology, and small-cap stocks benefiting from increased liquidity[2] - City investment bonds are likely to see a significant narrowing of credit spreads, presenting a potential investment opportunity[2]

Market Overview - On November 7, 2024, major indices opened lower but experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up by 2.57% at 3470.66 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.44% at 11235.92 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.75% at 2350.76 points [1][4][5] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector led the gains with a rise of 7.13%, followed by the food and beverage sector at 6.22%, and the beauty and personal care sector at 4.61% [7] - The defense and military sector saw a decline of 1.08%, while the non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 0.13% [7] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume across the two markets reached 25,050.77 billion, with 4,526 stocks rising, 46 remaining flat, and 786 declining [5][6] - The proportion of rising stocks was 80.78%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [5] Regulatory Developments - A new regulation on foreign investors' strategic investments in listed companies will take effect on December 2, 2024, which lowers the investment threshold and expands investment channels [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the importance of implementing capital market reforms to enhance the investment value of A-shares [3]

Market Overview - On November 6, 2024, the three major indices experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3383.81 points, down 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10968.14 points, down 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index at 2265.83 points, down 1.05% [1][2] - The total trading volume of the two markets exceeded 25.6 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [4] Sector Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the media sector led with a gain of 2.36%, followed by real estate at 2.12%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 1.72% [6] - The sectors that underperformed included household appliances, down 2.00%, and non-bank financials, down 0.96% [6] Trading Dynamics - The number of stocks that rose was 2,825, while 2,375 stocks fell, indicating a mixed market sentiment [4] - The market's upward momentum was reflected in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit up at 186, while only 8 stocks hit the limit down [4] Currency and Economic Context - The onshore and offshore RMB against the USD fell below 7.15 and 7.17 respectively, with significant fluctuations observed during the day [2] - The People's Bank of China emphasized maintaining overall financial stability and supporting economic growth through monetary policy adjustments [2]

Market Performance - The major indices experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.32% to close at 3386.99 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.22% to 11006.94 points, and the ChiNext Index surging by 4.75% to 2289.84 points [1][3] - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [1][4] Sector Performance - All sectors showed collective gains, with notable leadership from the defense and military, computer, and non-bank financial sectors [1][6] - The defense and military sector saw a rise of 6.33%, while the computer sector increased by 5.60%, and non-bank financials rose by 4.97% [9] Policy Developments - Recent policy adjustments across multiple provinces have shifted focus from the scale and number of listed companies to promoting mergers and acquisitions, enhancing corporate governance, and mitigating risks, aiming for high-quality regional industrial development [2] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) celebrated its sixth anniversary, having raised over 1 trillion yuan in direct financing, with 577 companies listed, all belonging to strategic emerging industries [2] Fund Flow and Market Environment - The launch of the second batch of the CSI A500 ETF is expected to attract more capital into the market, supported by an improving institutional environment for long-term investments [2] - The market is witnessing a trend of increasing long-term capital inflow, particularly from insurance funds, as the environment for investment continues to improve [2]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a rapid rise in the early session, followed by narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3300 points and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3% [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.17% to close at 3310.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.99% to 10663.10 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.93% to 2185.98 points [1][3] Key Market Data - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with 3,509 stocks rising, 130 remaining flat, and 1,717 declining [4] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 216, while 14 stocks hit the limit down [4] Sector Performance - The automotive sector led the gains with a rise of 3.63%, followed by non-bank financials at 3.17% and machinery equipment at 2.76% [6] - The steel sector saw a decline of 0.59%, and the real estate sector was nearly flat with a decrease of 0.04% [6] Notable News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the importance of achieving the annual reform and development goals for central enterprises [2] - The China Passenger Car Association projected a 58% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October, with an estimated 1.4 million units sold [2]