Group 1 - The overall performance of major assets shows that the equity, bond, and commodity markets are stabilizing with narrow fluctuations [2][9] - The A-share market is experiencing a high-level narrow fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining a continuous upward trend, although affected by pre-holiday risk aversion [3][11] - The domestic macroeconomic data continues to improve, with PMI rising and remaining in the expansion zone, while the RMB continues to appreciate against the USD, providing support for the market [3][12] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with liquidity easing providing a support base while upward movement is capped by the equity market [6][36] - The bond market configuration suggests that it may continue to experience a period of oscillation, with short-term bonds likely to perform better due to their flexibility [6][36] Group 3 - The commodity market is stabilizing after a slight decline, with precious metals like gold and silver experiencing adjustments after significant gains [7][44] - The outlook for precious metals remains positive in the medium to long term, with expectations of upward movement due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and a declining status of the US dollar [7][44] - The recommendation for commodity allocation suggests maintaining positions in gold [7][47] Group 4 - The report suggests an "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, focusing on offensive sectors like telecommunications and commercial aviation while retaining cash for potential post-holiday volatility [5][13] - The focus on technology innovation sectors is emphasized as a key driver for market performance in the medium to long term, particularly in the context of national competition and industrial transformation [11][13]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing structural prosperity, with strong demand for mature processes and specialty technologies. Domestic wafer manufacturing leaders, represented by SMIC, are operating at full capacity and have implemented price increases, indicating robust performance in a tight supply-demand environment [3][34] - The demand for AI computing continues to drive upgrades in high-end storage, with HBM prices rising and major players competing for next-generation technologies, highlighting a high prosperity trend in advanced storage and packaging testing [4][36] - The overall focus should be on domestic wafer manufacturing leaders and their upstream and downstream supply chains, as well as the AI-driven high-end hardware industry chain, which are currently key areas of interest [4][36] Industry Data Tracking Semiconductor Industry - In October 2025, global semiconductor sales reached $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2%, while China's semiconductor sales were $19.5 billion, up 18.5% year-on-year, indicating sustained strong demand in the semiconductor sector [24][29] - The domestic semiconductor equipment demand remains strong as the push for domestic substitution continues [24] Storage Chip Industry - Recent trends show a strong upward movement in DRAM prices, reflecting robust demand for high-performance memory from AI servers and next-generation PCs. NAND Flash prices are stable, with a gradual increase, while the overall storage chip industry is entering a new prosperity cycle [29][33] Consumer Electronics - The smartphone market is increasingly reliant on technological innovation and stimulus policies, with a significant increase in smartphone shipments in October 2025, driven by promotional events and new product launches [18][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply contraction at the end of the year, combined with a recovery in demand, is gradually confirming the price bottom range [1] - The report highlights that the thermal coal price continues to decline but at a reduced rate, with pessimistic sentiment gradually being released. After the New Year, low temperatures in the central and eastern regions are expected to boost heating demand, alongside supply contraction and policy support expectations, leading to a potential stabilization of coal prices [8][9] - Coking coal prices are stable with support, despite weak short-term demand. The report anticipates a narrow fluctuation in prices, supported by low inventory levels and supply contraction, with winter storage replenishment expected to start after the New Year [21][22] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market showed a significant increase with an average daily trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment. The coal sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [4][6][36] - The coal sector's weekly performance showed a decline of 0.68%, closing at 2772.29 points, with notable fluctuations among individual coal companies [4][6] Thermal Coal - The report notes a continued decline in thermal coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal reported at 672 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton week-on-week. The supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and production limits, while demand is showing marginal improvement [8][9][10] - The report indicates that the utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines has dropped to 86.4%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points week-on-week [8] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have remained stable, with premium coal types showing notable price increases. The report anticipates that despite weak short-term demand, the combination of low inventory levels and supply contraction will support prices [21][22] - The average price for main coking coal at the port is reported at 1740 yuan/ton, reflecting a recovery trend [23] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased, with an average of 67 vessels per day, indicating a rise in shipping activity. Shipping prices showed differentiated changes across routes [30][31] Industry News - Significant breakthroughs in coal exploration in Shandong province were reported, with over 10 billion tons of coal discovered. This is part of a broader initiative to enhance geological technology and promote high-quality development in the coal sector [33] - The report also highlights the upcoming national coal production and transportation coordination conference aimed at improving efficiency in coal supply chains [33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market has shown strong performance with multiple hotspots driving the market upward, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak, which has boosted investor confidence and mitigated pre-holiday risk aversion [2][3][8] - The report highlights that the market's trading volume has slightly increased, approaching 2 trillion, reflecting optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market [2][8] - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD has enhanced the domestic market's attractiveness to foreign capital, while macro policy has more operational space, contributing to positive news across various sectors such as commercial aviation, 6G, small metals, and batteries [2][8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the A-share market's performance is critical post-holiday, with the current market showing signs of recovery, although trading volume remains below August highs, and some funds are still in a wait-and-see mode [3][10] - It suggests that the market's ability to break through previous highs after the New Year will be a key focus, with ongoing policy support expected to favor the equity market [10][12] - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, suggesting that investors should follow hot sectors like telecommunications, batteries, and commercial aviation while maintaining some cash reserves to wait for post-holiday trends [13] Group 3 - The bond market has shown a rare independent upward trend, with expectations of continued volatility, as the report notes that the bond market is in a phase of downward support but upward resistance [4][38] - It indicates that without significant positive news, the bond market is likely to remain in a range-bound state for the foreseeable future [5][38] Group 4 - The commodity market has experienced an upward trend, particularly in precious metals, with silver prices reaching new highs and gold prices also increasing, which is expected to continue in the medium to long term due to the decoupling from the USD [46][47] - The report suggests maintaining positions in gold as it is anticipated to lead the commodity market's strength [47]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - Since 2025, the economy has shown signs of weak recovery, with infrastructure maintaining strong resilience and real estate focusing on stability. The issuance of special bonds has exceeded the annual plan by 104.36%, indicating effective investment expansion [6][24] - The central economic work conference has set a tone for proactive fiscal and loose monetary policies, which, along with the support of ultra-long-term special bonds, is expected to accelerate the pace of key project implementation, aiding the stabilization and recovery of demand in real estate and infrastructure [6][24] - New housing transaction area and second-hand housing transaction volume have increased month-on-month, signaling a potential bottoming out in the real estate market, although pressures remain [6][34] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The construction decoration sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly decline of 0.10% compared to a 0.28% drop in the CSI 300 [8][9] - Among the sub-sectors, professional engineering rose by 1.08%, while housing construction II increased by 0.59% [9] Industry Valuation - As of December 21, the construction decoration industry's PE (TTM) is 12.50 times, ranking in the 74.77% percentile over the past 10 years, but still low compared to other industries, ranking 30 out of 31 [18] - The PB (LF) is 0.78 times, also in a low position, ranking 30 out of 31 [18] Industry Data Tracking 1) Bond Issuance Data - The issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, with a net financing amount of -177.48 billion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [22][24] - New special bonds have seen high issuance heat, with a total of 45,916.68 billion yuan issued this year, surpassing the planned issuance [24] 2) Investment Data - From January to November, fixed asset investment reached 44.40 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [32] 3) Operational Data - The construction PMI for November was 49.60%, indicating a slight increase in new orders, with the business activity expectation index at 57.9% [34] 4) High-frequency Data - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 31.62%, while prices for both bagged and bulk cement showed differentiated fluctuations [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to stabilize after a recent decline, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints as winter approaches [4][10] - The market is experiencing structural differentiation, with funds flowing into low-volatility, high-dividend sectors, while growth sectors are under pressure [5][37] - The coal sector has outperformed the market indices, with coal stocks showing resilience amid market fluctuations [5][37] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market showed structural differentiation, with a daily average trading volume of 1.76 trillion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment [5] - The coal sector rose by 0.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [5] - Notable stock performances included Huabei Mining (+2.38%) and Haohua Energy (+2.22%), while Xindazhou A (-14.79%) and Dayou Energy (-6.33%) faced significant declines [5] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices continued to decline, with supply constraints due to strict safety regulations and seasonal demand variations [9][10] - The average capacity utilization rate of 100 sample thermal coal mines was 88.3%, down 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [9] - Port inventories increased, with northern ports showing a 1.7% rise in coal stock [9][10] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices showed a stable upward trend, supported by low inventory levels and limited supply increases [21][22] - The average capacity utilization rate of 88 sample coking coal mines was 83.2%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points [21] - The market remains in a demand lull, but some improvement in steel mill operations has been noted [21][22] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels decreased, and shipping prices fell across major routes [30] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou was 39.25 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline [30] Industry News - Shanxi Province has produced 2.9 billion tons of coal over the past five years, with a significant portion allocated for energy supply [33] - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% to 5% export tax on coal starting in 2026 to enhance fiscal revenue [34] - The National Mine Safety Administration is focusing on safety measures to ensure high-quality development in the mining sector [33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The pulp inventory has significantly decreased, leading to a notable rebound in pulp prices. The average closing price of pulp futures has risen by 563.2 CNY/ton to 5303.6 CNY/ton, with inventory levels dropping to an average of 154,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 47,375.8 tons [3][9] - The packaging paper prices are showing a mixed trend, with corrugated paper prices slightly decreasing by 30 CNY/ton, while other types like boxboard and white card paper remain stable. The long-term outlook suggests that the reduction in production by leading companies will continue to support price recovery [3][6] - The release of the "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" aims to provide funding support for the industry's green and low-carbon transformation, filling a gap in the national framework [4] - The industry is expected to experience a "supply optimization + cost support + policy backing" scenario, enhancing the sector's configuration value. The demand for packaging paper is showing resilience, while the supply side is improving due to production cuts [3][26] Summary by Sections Industry News - The "Guangdong Province Paper Industry Transformation Financial Implementation Guidelines" were released to support the green transformation of the industry, with Guangdong's paper and board production reaching 26.48 million tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of the national total [4] Market Trends - The pulp market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with expectations for pulp prices to recover year-on-year due to limited new capacity in 2026. The cost advantages of integrated pulp and paper companies are expected to become more pronounced [3][5] - The packaging paper sector is anticipated to see a recovery in price levels, with the supply expansion phase nearing its end. The industry is expected to improve capacity utilization and price levels in 2026 [6] Investment Strategy - The current phase is critical for "valuation recovery + industry prosperity," suggesting a focus on "pulp-paper integration + policy beneficiaries." Companies with integrated pulp-paper operations are expected to benefit from cost advantages and profit elasticity as pulp prices recover [26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The demand for AI-driven storage is surging, with Micron's Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2026 reaching $13.64 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57%, indicating strong ongoing AI demand [2][35] - The storage chip industry is entering a new upcycle, driven by both supply-side adjustments and structural recovery in demand, particularly for high-performance storage related to AI [2][31][34] - The semiconductor industry continues to experience robust demand, with global semiconductor sales in October 2025 reaching $72.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [22][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.03% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.89% during the week of December 15-21, 2025 [1][6] - The electronic sector underperformed, declining by 3.28% [6] Industry Data Tracking - The consumer electronics sector is increasingly reliant on technological innovation and stimulus policies, with smartphone shipments in China growing by 12.4% year-on-year in October 2025 [16] - The semiconductor industry remains strong, with domestic semiconductor equipment demand continuing to improve [22] - The storage chip industry is experiencing a significant uptrend, with DRAM prices showing a strong upward trend due to demand from AI servers [27][34] Investment Recommendations - The ongoing AI data center demand is expected to drive storage needs significantly, with a recommendation to focus on companies that achieve technological breakthroughs in key areas of the semiconductor supply chain [31][34] - The current price increase in the storage market is driven by AI-related high-performance storage demand and supply constraints in traditional storage sectors [31][34] Industry News and Important Announcements - Micron Technology reported a 57% increase in revenue for Q1 FY2026, driven by AI data center demand [35] - Samsung has launched the Exynos 2600, the world's first mobile application processor built on a 2nm process [36] - Honda's factories in China are facing production cuts due to semiconductor shortages, with a temporary shutdown planned [39]

Core Insights - The overall market is experiencing a period of sustained volatility as it approaches the holiday season, with the equity market showing insufficient upward momentum and trading volume significantly below 20 trillion [2][9] - Investor sentiment is cautious, influenced by a policy vacuum at year-end and increased risk aversion due to the holiday season, leading to a lack of upward movement in the market [3][10] - Despite the short-term volatility, the market remains supported at relatively high levels, indicating resilience and a potential for upward movement in the medium to long term, especially with favorable policies and strong corporate earnings expected [3][12] Equity Market Summary - The A-share market continues to maintain high-level fluctuations, with trading volumes remaining weak and investor caution increasing [3][10] - The year-end policy vacuum and external market conditions, such as the transition in the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contribute to a subdued market environment [3][10] - In the medium to long term, the market has significant upward potential, particularly with the "14th Five-Year Plan" beginning and a supportive monetary environment [3][12] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for equity allocation, focusing on both offensive positions in sectors like communication, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, and defensive positions in consumer sectors to enhance returns [3][13] Bond Market Summary - The bond market continues to exhibit a volatile trend, closely following the equity market, indicating a lack of independent movement [4][35] - Without significant positive developments, the bond market is expected to remain weak in upward momentum, making it difficult to achieve independent performance [5][35] Commodity Market Summary - The commodity market is also experiencing volatility, with precious metals, particularly gold, showing a strong upward trend while other commodities remain subdued [6][40] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the medium to long term, supported by both investment and safe-haven demand, potentially leading precious metals to develop an independent trend [6][40] - It is advised to maintain positions in gold as part of the commodity investment strategy [6][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance of the previous week and provides allocation strategies for equity and stable - type products. It suggests that investors can focus on relevant funds based on event - driven strategies and asset allocation strategies in the equity market, and pay attention to short - term debt funds and fixed income + funds in the stable - type product market [1][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review Equity Market - Most major equity market indices declined last week, with the STAR 50 having the largest decline of 2.99%. The ChiNext Index (-2.26%), CSI 300 (-0.28%), Wind All - A (-0.15%), and Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (-0.13%) also fell, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.03%. In the past 1 month, 3 months, and year - to - date, the leading indices were the ChiNext Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and ChiNext Index respectively. Shenwan primary industries showed mixed performance, with the consumer sector rebounding collectively. Sectors such as commerce and retail (6.66%), non - banking finance (2.90%), beauty and care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%) were relatively high - ranking, while electronics (-3.28%), power equipment (-3.12%), machinery and equipment (-1.56%), comprehensive (-1.53%), and communication (-0.89%) were relatively low - ranking [4] Bond Market - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection last week, and the money market remained loose. Both short - and long - term interest rates declined. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.88BP to 1.831%, and the 1 - year yield fell from 1.388% to 1.355%, with the term spread (10Y - 1Y) widening. The credit spreads of short - and long - term bonds showed different trends [7] Fund Market - Affected by the equity market, the equity - biased fund index fell 0.61%, the secondary bond fund index rose 0.10%, the medium - and long - term bond fund index rose 0.05%, and the short - term bond fund index rose 0.08% [13] Equity - type Product Allocation Strategies Event - driven Strategy - **2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference**: The conference was held in Xi'an on December 18. In 2026, the photovoltaic industry will strengthen capacity regulation. Relevant funds to focus on include Harvest Low - Carbon Selection A (017036), Great Wall China Intelligent Manufacturing A (001880), and ICBC Industrial Environment A (001245) [15] - **New Breakthrough in Chinese Optical Computing Chips**: Shanghai Jiao Tong University researchers achieved a breakthrough in the new - generation optical computing chips. Relevant industries to focus on are integrated circuit design, optical modules, and semiconductor equipment. Relevant funds are Boshi Semiconductor Theme A (012650), Huaxia Semiconductor Leading A (016500), and ICBC Emerging Manufacturing A (009707) [16] - **Full - island Customs Closure of Hainan Free Trade Port**: The full - island customs closure event was held on December 18. Relevant sectors to focus on are duty - free, tourism, high - end consumption, and medical and health. Relevant funds are Harvest Logistics Industry A (003298), GF Ruiyi Leading A (005233), and Harvest Mutual Integration Selection A (006603) [17] Asset Allocation Strategy - The overall allocation idea is a balanced bottom - position + barbell strategy, with dividends and technology + high - end manufacturing at the two ends of the barbell. Dividend assets have allocation value due to the low - interest - rate environment and policy support. The balanced style can reduce risks and capture opportunities in different market environments. The technology growth direction is supported by national policies, high industry prosperity, and the need for domestic substitution. The military industry has strategic and investment value under the background of geopolitical conflicts. Relevant funds to focus on include Anxin Dividend Selection A (018381), Anxin Advantage Growth A (001287), Huaxia Zhisheng Pioneer A (501219), Harvest Hong Kong Internet Core Assets A (011924), and Boshi Military Industry Theme A (004698) [18][20][22] Stable - type Product Allocation Strategies Market Analysis - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 189 billion yuan last week, keeping the money market loose. In November, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month, with a 6.0% year - to - date increase. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Convertible bonds need attention due to their volatility risk [23][24] Key Focus Products - The overall allocation idea is to continue holding short - term debt funds but lower the return expectations. Investors who want to increase overall returns can consider appropriately allocating fixed income + funds. Key funds to focus on are Nord Short - term Debt A (005350), Cathay Pacific Li'an Medium - and Short - term Debt A (016947), Anxin New Value A (003026), and Southern Glory A (002015) [27][28]