2024 版 云计算 2030 构建万物互联的智能世界 目 录 01 宏观趋势 04 05 02未来行业场景 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 2.1 制药：AI 颠覆式创新，创新药设计成功率提升 10 倍， 10 年研发周期减半 | ................................06 | | 2.2 气象：数据驱动地球解码器，预报计算时间缩短 1 万倍 | ...............................................................07 | | 2.3 金融：高频模拟 Now-Casting，30% 经济指标即时精准预测 | ............................................ ...

2024 版 数据中心 2030 构建万物互联的智能世界 数据中心 2030 探索未来数据中心 引领智能时代 an I Wall I Wall I want of the may be and the may be and the ... 01 序言 汪涛 创新涌现，拥抱智能时代 在 AI 大模型训练过程中，当模型大到一定规模之后，性能会发生突变，开始呈现指数级快速增长，科 学界称这个现象为"涌现"。正是这个性能的突变，让人工智能的发展阶段从感知理解世界到生成创 造世界，这也造就了 ChatGPT 的火热，催生了面向行业的数百个 AI 大模型的出现。今天，"百模千态" 正走向每一个行业、每一个场景、解决客户每一个问题，加速千行万业的智能化转型。人工智能的"涌 现"时刻即将出现，人类社会也将迎来一个波澜壮阔的智能时代。 迈入智能时代，最大的需求是算力，最关键的基础设施是数据中心。根据华为《智能世界 2030》报告 预测，2030 年，人类将迎来 YB 数据时代，全球通用计算算力将达到 3.3ZFLOPS(FP32)，AI 算力需求 激增，2030 年将达到 864 ZFLOPS（FP16）。算力需求十年百倍的增 ...

2024 版 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ICT | 服务 | | | | | 构建万物互联的智能世界 前言 通讯行业从 2G 逐步走向 5G，ICT 服务和软件行业也经历了标准化，工具化，数字化的代际升级； 随着 Gen AI，数字孪生等新技术的兴起，从数字化到智能化已成为行业共识，2030 年，人工智 能将无所不在，基础设施智能泛在感知成为刚需，大模型逐步走向 AGI 像人类一样思考，服务模 式将从围绕"人"逐步走向"机器"，企业营销和赋能的方式也将变得更加实时敏捷 ...... 未来十年，千行百业的智能化转型类似 20 世纪的工业革命，Gen AI 是和蒸汽机，电灯一样伟大 的发明，第一次让机器像人脑一样学习和思考，这是跨时代的改变生产力的历史进程，将开启每 个企业 / 家庭 / 个人工作和生活的新时代…. 目 ICT 服务与软件 2030 愿景及核心技术 20 宏观趋势与展望 04 ICT 服务与 ...

2024 版 计算 2030 构建万物互联的智能世界 前言 十年前，人类进入 ZB[1] 数据时代，移动互联网、云计算、大数据刚刚起步；今天，这些技术已经 深刻地改变人类社会，计算发挥了前所未有的作用。 2030 年，人类将迎来 YB[1] 数据时代，对比 2020 年，通用算力增长 10 倍、人工智能算力增长 4000倍[2]。数字世界和物理世界无缝融合，人与机器实现感知、情感的双向交互；人工智能无所不及， 帮助人类获得超越自我的能力，成为科学家的显微镜与望远镜，让我们的认知跨越微小的夸克到广 袤的宇宙，千行万业从数字化走向智能化；计算能效将持续提升，走向低碳计算，帮助人类利用数 字手段加速实现碳中和目标。 未来十年，计算将帮助人类跨入智能世界，这是一个波澜壮阔的史诗进程，将开启一个与大航海时代、 工业革命时代、宇航时代等具有同样历史地位的新时代。 3 目 未来计算场景 08 2.1 更聪明的 Al 2.2 更普惠的 Al. 2.3 更纵深的感知 2.4 超越现实的体验 2.5 更精确地探索未知 . 2.6 更准确地模拟现实 . 2.7 数据驱动的业务创新. 2.8 更高效的运营效率 . 计算 2030 愿 ...

2024 版 数字能源 2030 构建万物互联的智能世界 数字能源 2030 01 从巴黎协定到阿联酋 COP28 会议， 减碳成为全球确定性趋势 COP28 会议启动"结束化石燃料"的时代，超过 150 个国家提出 减碳承诺 十八世纪以后，煤炭、石油、电力的广泛使用， 先后推动了第一、第二次工业革命，使人类社 会从农耕文明迈向工业文明，能源为推动社会 进步、消除贫困、改善民生提供了源源不断的 动力，成为世界经济发展的最重要基石之一。 同时，人类对地球气候系统的影响显而易见， 近年来人为排放的温室气体达到历史最高水平。 根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC） 的统计，人类活动引起的二氧化碳变化量每年 约为 237 亿吨（尤其是燃烧化石燃料，每年大 约排放 200 亿吨）。其结果就是现在大气中的 二氧化碳含量比过去 65 万年（平均水平）高了 27%。特别是工业革命时代开始大量燃烧煤炭， 二氧化碳水平开始急速上升，有可能引发气候 系统前所未有的变化，导致严重的生态和经济 失调。这已促使人们讨论如何减少化石燃料的 燃烧来降低温室气体的产生。 科学界和各国政府对气候变化问题正在形成更 加明确的共识，2015 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the data storage industry, projecting significant growth driven by technological advancements and increasing data demands [2][8]. Core Insights - The industry is transitioning into the Yottabyte (YB) era by 2030, with total data volume expected to increase from 175 ZB to 1003 ZB, marking a 23-fold growth compared to 2020 [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of data-centric infrastructure to support a more intelligent and interconnected world, driven by technologies such as 5G/6G, AI, and cloud computing [2][8]. - The integration of advanced data storage solutions is crucial for various sectors, including healthcare, agriculture, smart homes, and urban development, enhancing efficiency and sustainability [3][11][19]. Summary by Sections Future Data Storage Scenarios - The report outlines various future scenarios for data storage, highlighting the role of digital technologies in enhancing human development and transitioning from information to digitalization [3][8]. - Key sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, and smart living are identified as primary beneficiaries of data-driven innovations, with specific examples provided for each sector [9][11][14]. Advanced Medium Applications - The report discusses the application of advanced media technologies and innovations in data storage architecture, including separation of storage and computing, and integrated storage solutions [4][5]. - Emphasis is placed on data security and the development of proactive data protection measures to ensure the integrity and safety of stored information [4][5]. Sustainable Storage - The report highlights the importance of energy-efficient storage systems and sustainable practices in data management, aiming to reduce the environmental impact of data centers [5][12]. - Innovations in energy-saving technologies and standards for green data storage are discussed as essential for future developments in the industry [5][12]. Smart Data Interactions - The report emphasizes the role of automated data orchestration and cross-domain data collaboration in enhancing data utility and accessibility [5][6]. - The concept of data as an application is introduced, focusing on the development of service-oriented interfaces and multi-modal data analysis [5][6]. Urban Digital Infrastructure - The report outlines the vision for smart cities, driven by advancements in ICT technologies, which will enhance urban living through improved data management and resource allocation [19][20]. - Predictions indicate that by 2030, data generated from urban environments will account for 96% of total data, with significant implications for urban governance and infrastructure management [21][22].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall financial performance of the companies in the report indicates a significant increase in revenue and net profit for several firms, with some reporting net profit growth of up to five times [20]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Companies like 卓翼科技 reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue, alongside a 145% increase in net cash flow from operating activities, indicating strong operational performance [30]. - The automotive sector is experiencing a doubling of subsidies for vehicle replacements, which is expected to boost sales and production in the industry [11]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The integrated circuit production in China saw a year-on-year increase of 26.9% in July, reflecting robust growth in the high-tech industry [9]. - The gold market reached a new high, with spot gold prices surpassing $2500, driven by lower-than-expected CPI and PPI data in the U.S. [8]. Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The report highlights a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing service consumption and promoting large-scale consumption [15]. - The semiconductor industry is witnessing increased activity in mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the "hard technology" sectors, as companies seek to consolidate and enhance their competitive positions [13]. Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management across various sectors expressed optimism about future growth, particularly in the context of government policies aimed at stimulating economic activity and consumer spending [15]. - The ongoing developments in the AI and augmented reality sectors are expected to drive innovation and investment, with companies actively pursuing new technologies and partnerships [24]. Other Important Information - The report notes the emergence of new health threats, such as monkeypox, which has led to increased demand for diagnostic products, benefiting companies in the medical diagnostics sector [20]. - The upcoming Huawei Connect 2024 event is anticipated to showcase advancements in AI and computing technologies, which could influence market dynamics and investment trends [6]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the implications of the new automotive subsidy policies? - The new policies are expected to significantly boost sales of both new energy and fuel vehicles, with subsidies increasing from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles, and from 7,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [11]. Question: How is the integrated circuit industry performing? - The integrated circuit production has shown a remarkable growth of 26.9% year-on-year in July, indicating a strong recovery and expansion in the high-tech manufacturing sector [9]. Question: What are the expectations for the gold market? - Analysts expect continued strength in the gold market, with prices recently breaking the $2500 mark, supported by favorable economic indicators and inflation trends [8].

Key Points General Information - **Document ID**: 1 - **Purpose**: The document outlines the key points discussed during a professional investment conference hosted by Guosheng Securities. - **Participants**: The speakers represent their personal views, while the comments from Guosheng Securities' researchers are based on their judgment on the day of the event. - **Restrictions**: No recording, forwarding, or interpretation of the content is allowed without written permission from Guosheng Securities. Legal action will be taken against any violations. Industry/Company Specifics - **Industry**: Not specified - **Company**: Not specified Core Views and Arguments - **Not Applicable**: The document does not provide specific industry or company-related information, core views, or arguments. Other Important Content - **Not Applicable**: The document does not contain any other important content that may be overlooked.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Huawei's CPU business in the B-end market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan, positioning it as the largest smart automotive solution provider in China [2][4] - The revenue scale of Huawei's automotive business unit (BU) is projected to reach between 127.5 billion to 165 billion yuan, with a net profit estimated at 19.1 billion to 24.8 billion yuan [4][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the B-end market, Huawei provides products such as ABS systems and intelligent driving computing platforms, with the ADS system having two versions: high-end and basic [4] - The cost of the hardware for the 2.0 version of the ADS system is approximately 30,000 yuan, while the basic version's cost has dropped to around 10,000 yuan [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail scale of the 200,000 yuan and above passenger car market is estimated at around 8 million units, with the SUV segment accounting for about 50% [4][16] - Huawei's "问界" series is expected to capture a market share of 20% to 30% in the 200,000 yuan and above passenger car market, translating to potential sales of 800,000 to 1.2 million units [4][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Huawei is gradually downplaying the "Huawei brand" label and has launched the "乾坤" intelligent automotive solution, which will become one of its core platforms [2][7] - The company aims to play the role of a Tier 1 supplier in the CPU market while facing challenges related to the redistribution of R&D resources [4][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses optimism about the future growth of Huawei's smart automotive business, driven by core technology advantages such as 5G communication and artificial intelligence [4][19] - The Chinese government's strong support for the new energy vehicle industry is seen as a significant factor in promoting Huawei's development in this sector [4] Other Important Information - Huawei's partnerships with traditional automakers like Changan, BAIC, and Chery are crucial for accelerating market entry and resource integration [2][4] - The "问界" series is positioned as a high-end SUV, with significant development potential in the mixed fuel vehicle market [5] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why did Ping An Securities choose to release the research report on Huawei's smart car business potential at this time? - The report highlights the significant impact of Huawei's collaboration with Changan Automobile on enhancing its competitiveness in the automotive electronics field [12] Question: What developments are noteworthy in Huawei's C-end market? - Huawei has made significant progress in user experience and product performance through innovations like the HarmonyOS operating system [4] Question: What is the future development direction of Huawei's smart automotive business? - The business is expected to continue rapid growth, leveraging core technology advantages and strategic partnerships with traditional automakers [4][19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The revenue for the CPU business in 2023 was 4.74 billion, but it incurred a loss of 6 billion [29] - The projected revenue for the CPU business at maturity is estimated to reach between 127.5 billion to 165 billion, with a net profit margin assumption of 15% [28][106] - The company expects annual net profits at maturity to be between 19.1 billion to 24.8 billion [28][106] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The CPU business includes five major solutions: intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, intelligent vehicle, vehicle-mounted optics, and intelligent vehicle control [29] - The intelligent driving segment is the largest, with a development team of about 5,000 people [30] - The intelligent cockpit is the second-largest business, integrating Huawei's HarmonyOS into vehicles, with pricing varying significantly based on product combinations [61] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market for vehicles priced above 200,000 is estimated to be around 800,000 units, with the SUV segment potentially accounting for 400,000 units [37] - The company anticipates that if the Wanjie series captures a market share of 20% to 30%, it could achieve sales of 80,000 to 120,000 units in China [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Huawei is gradually reducing its branding presence in the automotive sector, focusing on the Huawei QianKun brand for intelligent vehicle solutions [75] - The company plans to expand its CPU business by attracting more automotive partners and increasing revenue scale to enhance valuation [101] - The strategy includes a focus on high-end hybrid vehicles, with limited competition in the market [64] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future potential of the intelligent vehicle market, particularly with the upcoming launches of new models [26] - The competitive landscape is seen as favorable, with few players in the high-end hybrid vehicle segment [64] - The company acknowledges challenges in the high-end pure electric vehicle market, where sales have been sluggish [95] Other Important Information - The company has established partnerships with four automotive manufacturers, each targeting different market segments [90] - The report highlights the importance of scaling operations quickly post-independence to improve market valuation [101] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the future growth potential for Huawei's intelligent vehicle business? - The company estimates that the CPU business could become the largest intelligent vehicle solution provider in China, with a revenue scale exceeding 100 billion [27] Question: How does Huawei plan to compete in the high-end vehicle market? - Huawei's strategy focuses on leveraging its technology to create high-quality products while reducing costs to remain competitive [87] Question: What are the expected sales figures for the Wanjie series? - If the Wanjie series captures a 20% to 30% market share in the SUV segment, sales could reach between 80,000 to 120,000 units [37]