Investment Rating - The report raises the S&P 500 year-end target to 5600 from 5200, indicating a positive investment outlook for US equities [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that stellar earnings growth from five mega-cap tech stocks has mitigated typical negative revisions to consensus EPS estimates, supporting a higher fair-value P/E multiple of 20.4x for the S&P 500 [4]. - It discusses potential scenarios for the S&P 500, including a "catch up" scenario that could lift the index to 5900 (+8%) and a more optimistic scenario that could see it reach 6300 (+15%) [4]. - Conversely, it notes that concerns about the US economic outlook could lead to a decline in the index to as low as 4800 (-13%) [4]. Summary by Sections US Equities - The report anticipates continued upside for US equities, driven by strong earnings growth and a stable economic environment [4]. - It emphasizes the role of mega-cap tech stocks in offsetting negative EPS revisions, projecting a P/E multiple increase [4]. Central Banks - The report expects two rate cuts from the Fed in September and December, driven by a rebalanced labor market and softening economic activity [5][7]. - It also predicts that the Bank of England will begin cutting rates in August, reflecting progress in UK disinflation [8]. Global Economic Outlook - The report discusses the implications of upcoming elections in France and the UK, suggesting limited market impact regardless of the election outcomes [10]. - It notes ongoing policy easing in China, with expectations for fiscal and monetary measures to support economic activity [11]. Oil Production - The report estimates that crude production growth in the Permian Basin will decline from strong 2023 levels due to geological constraints, but robust growth is expected to continue through 2026 [12]. - It forecasts Brent prices to remain between $75-90 per barrel in the short run, supported by high OPEC spare capacity [12].

哈喽各位听听听听的朋友们大家下午好欢迎来到方言达直播间我是今天的主持人欢迎大家来到我们直播间那么在正式开始我们的直播之前呢我们还是先来测试一下我们直播间的画面和声音大小大家可以听一下我这个声音啊如果觉得ok的话呢欢迎大家在评论区扣1告诉我 如果没什么问题的话 我们就准备开始今天的直播今天是我们投资那点是栏目的直播那么今天的直播时间可能会控制在35分钟左右在整个直播过程当中 欢迎大家跟我们进行互动大家无论是关于产品的或者是金经理的相关的问题都可以在评论区进行留言 我们直播间的左下角是购物袋大家点击进去可以看到我们家的相关的基因产品大家如果感兴趣的话也可以把相关的产品加一下资讯 今天我们主要想跟大家来聊一聊美联储议席会议的相关的一些事情那么为什么全球都在关注着美联储的一个动向对整个资本市场会有哪些影响我们会试着对这些问题进行一个回答那么在聊这些问题之前我们还是先来聊一下什么是美联储 其实我们经常会听到美联储这样的一个称呼它呢是一个简称它的全称是美国联邦储备系统那么它的英文的一个缩写呢是FED美联储的话它相当于是美国的中央银行系统跟我们的央行其实在职能上面是有很多相似的地方 主要都是用来确保全国范围内的一个货币政策 ...

美银：研究报告强调，储又回到了焦点上 ...

大家好欢迎参加东新宏观非农通胀和美联储货币政策电话会议目前所参会者均处于静音状态现在开始播报名字声明声明播完后主持人可直接开始发言 本次会议局面向受邀的东兴证券研究所的白名单客户会议中嘉宾的发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位、具体时点、具体市场表现的判断或投资建议研究人员的发言内容仅代表当日的判断具体请参见完整版的研究报告依照监管要求和保密原则任何机构或个人严禁对本次会议内容、录音 制作金钥 转发 转载 传播 复制 编辑 修改等涉嫌违反上述情情的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持 谢谢老师好 您这会儿可以直接开始发言了 好的,今天我跟大家分享一下我们关于最近这两周美国这边颁布的这些非农通胀以及美联储政策方面的一些观点。我们首先看一下非农,非农应该说在今年整个一到五月份的 非农数据的话除了四月份是不及预期的以外一到三月还有第五个月份的非农都是超预期的那么基本上这个非农是不是超预期也左右了这个市场对何时降息的一个判断 那么我们的观点呢是这样就是市场对于非农的关注度呢有一点过于敏感有两个观点第一个就是如果我们把政府和医疗的这个非农就业新增扣除的话那么其实一到五月份的非农 ...

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南华研究院宏观外汇分析师周记那今天的话我和大家分享一下我们对美联储在什么时候会开启降息的这么一个观点首先我们还是按照惯例来看一下上周整个外汇市场的一个走势表现上周的话美联储指数是呈现一个先跌后涨的一个走势那具体来看的话是在美国公布它这个5月的CPI和PPI通胀数据 之后我们看到美元指数是沉压的原因也是因为这两个数据显示出了今年年内有一定的一个降息的概率也是因为CPI和PPI都是超预期的回落但是在DC会议内容和鲍威尔会后的发言公布之后 也是因为整体这个略偏鹰派的这么一个基调我们看到了美元指数呢它是在CPI数据的一个跌幅就是在CPI数据公布后的这么一个跌幅呢也得到了一定的一个程度的一个修复当然我们也可以看到屏幕上方这个美元指数跌幅跌的最大的就是在5月CPI数据公布之后形成了这么大的一个跌幅那除此之外呢我们看到这个日元和 欧元的话在上周也是有所贬值也是进一步推升了美元指数具体来看的话日央行的话在上周是维持这个利率不变并且在购债这个计划方面它是不及预期的虽然说是宣布减少购债的一个规模但是呢 他表示就是说在七月的这个议席会议上呢也是会公布这个未来一到两年的一个计划那欧洲这边的话就是欧洲的这个议会选举是出炉了那这个结果其 ...

高盛：宏观研究最关心的是什么_储降息和日本央行加息、法国大选意外、油价上涨 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call is related to the macroeconomic analysis and financial real estate sector, hosted by Huajing Securities [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call is part of a series of online roadshow events, indicating a focus on engaging with investors and stakeholders in the financial and real estate markets [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The event is being broadcasted in collaboration with Jinmen Caijin and Wanda 3C conference platform, highlighting the use of technology in investor relations [1]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call is related to the macroeconomic analysis and financial real estate sector, hosted by Huajing Securities and supported by Jimen Finance and Wind 3C Conference Platform [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call is part of a series aimed at providing insights into macroeconomic trends and financial markets, indicating a focus on current economic conditions and their implications for investment strategies [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The event is positioned as a platform for discussing significant macroeconomic developments, suggesting that participants may gain valuable insights into market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [1]

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry involved in the conference call [1] Core Points and Arguments - The document does not provide any core viewpoints or arguments from the conference call [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The document does not contain any additional important information [1]