中国经济观察 2024年第四季度 kpmg.com/cn 目录 1 © 2024 毕马威华振会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙) — 中国合伙制会计师事务所，毕马威企业咨询 (中国) 有限公司 — 中国有限责任公司，毕马威会计师事务所 — 澳门特别行政区合伙制事务所， 及毕马威会计师事务所 — 香港特别行政区合伙制事务所，均是与毕马威国际有限公司（英国私营担保有限公司）相关联的独立成员所全球组织中的成员。版权所有，不得转载。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------------------------------------|-------| | | | 要点综述 | 2 | | | | 经济走势 | 6 | | | | 三季度经济增速回落，政策加码提振市场信心 | 7 | | | | 基建支撑固定资产投资维持韧性 | 11 | | | | 促消费政策效果逐步显现 | 20 | | | | 通货膨胀有望筑底回升 | 25 | | | | 货币政策强调稳增长和促转型并行 | 28 | | | | 积极拓展新兴市场支撑出口保持韧性 | 33 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant regulatory changes aimed at enhancing the stability and quality of the financial sector, particularly focusing on insurance and financial leasing industries [2][4][6][8][22][30][48][60] Summary by Sections Financial Regulations Overview - In September, 24 important new regulations were issued by various financial regulatory bodies, covering areas such as credit, securities, equity investment, insurance, and non-bank institution management [2] Financial Asset Investment Companies - The Financial Regulatory Authority has expanded the pilot program for equity investments by financial asset investment companies, encouraging long-term investments and supporting technology innovation [7][48] - The pilot program now includes 18 major cities, expanding from Shanghai to cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [49] Insurance Industry Development - The State Council has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in the insurance sector, emphasizing risk prevention and enhancing service levels [22][23][25] - The guidelines focus on improving insurance market access, enhancing service capabilities, and supporting major national strategies [22][24][26] Non-Bank Institution Management - The Financial Regulatory Authority has implemented new regulations for financial leasing companies, enhancing governance and risk management [6][38][41] - The new regulations require higher capital thresholds for major investors and stricter business classification [38][41][45] Mobile Application Management in Banking and Insurance - New regulations have been introduced to strengthen the management of mobile applications in the banking and insurance sectors, emphasizing risk management and user experience [30][36] - The regulations require financial institutions to integrate mobile application management into their overall risk management frameworks [30][36] Capital Market Stability - The Central Financial Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have issued guidelines to enhance the stability of the capital market, encouraging long-term investments and improving the quality of listed companies [60][63] - The guidelines aim to create a supportive environment for institutional investors and enhance investor returns [64][66]

Investment Rating - The travel and leisure sector is rated positively, with global investment expected to rise by 25 percent year-on-year in 2024, and travel and tourism revenues projected to increase by 8.3 percent, reaching nearly US$1 trillion [1][1]. Core Insights - The travel and leisure industry is recovering from COVID-19, high inflation, and economic uncertainty, with record-high revenues per available room in hotels [1][1]. - Despite challenges such as high interest rates and below-average consumer confidence, there are significant opportunities for value creation and growth in the sector [1][1]. - The report emphasizes four key areas for growth: inorganic growth, performance improvement, technology enablement, and customer-centricity [1][1]. Inorganic Growth - M&A activity in the travel and leisure sector remains subdued, but signs of revival are emerging, particularly in markets like China, India, Japan, and Germany [4]. - The first half of 2024 saw an 8.1 percent increase in deal volume compared to the same period in 2023, although deal value dropped by 45.4 percent [39][39]. - The report anticipates a potential uptick in M&A activity as financing conditions improve [46][46]. Performance Improvement - The report highlights the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences and enhancing operational efficiency to drive growth [50][50]. - Companies are encouraged to explore creative partnerships and unique offerings to expand their customer base and improve product offerings [52][52]. Technology Enablement - The travel and leisure sector is increasingly focusing on technology to enhance customer experiences and operational efficiencies [1][1]. - The integration of technology is seen as a critical factor for companies to thrive in a competitive environment [1][1]. Customer Focus - There is a growing emphasis on aligning product portfolios to attract leisure consumers, as the demand for personalized experiences increases [60][60]. - Companies are encouraged to innovate and adapt their offerings to meet the evolving preferences of travelers [60][60]. About KPMG's Travel and Leisure Network - KPMG's global network provides insights and support to travel and leisure companies, helping them navigate challenges and unlock growth opportunities [1][1].

季刊 2024年二、三季度 资产证券化 毕马威中国 目录 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------|----------|--------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 01 | | | | 政策动态 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 02 | | | | 发行情况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 03 | | | | | 热点 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a transformative shift in risk management, viewing risks as opportunities for value creation rather than mere threats [1][4][10] - A significant 61% of executives anticipate a substantial increase in the level of risk they will need to manage over the next three to five years [3][30] - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI is highlighted as a key technology for managing additional risk responsibilities in the coming years [4][53] Current Challenges in Risk Management - The report identifies multiple internal and external factors complicating risk management, including geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and climate change [20][24] - Organizations face increasing pressure to reduce the costs of risk functions while managing a rapidly expanding range of risks [24][25] - A notable 90% of respondents indicate that the pace of risk transformation has accelerated due to technological changes, with 56% stating it has significantly sped up [24][25] Five Strategic Imperatives for Risk Functions - The report outlines five strategic imperatives for organizations to effectively position their risk functions: 1. Treating risk as a value creator across the business [26][27] 2. Ensuring the executive team becomes a risk team [30][31] 3. Integrating risk into business decision-making [44] 4. Leveraging digital tools for acceleration [52][53] 5. Building a risk-centric team [63] Insights from the Chinese Perspective - The report notes that Chinese respondents emphasize the importance of digital transformation and risk management, focusing on efficiency and cost optimization [81][82] - A significant number of Chinese executives recognize the role of risk data in leadership reporting, with 95% indicating its inclusion [86][85] Resilience as a Key Factor - Organizational resilience is identified as a critical differentiator for companies navigating complex and changing environments [87][88] - Resilient organizations are characterized by their ability to adapt and thrive amid disruptions, leveraging strategic foresight and innovation [88][89] Case Studies and Practical Applications - The report includes case studies demonstrating how organizations have successfully integrated risk management into their operations, enhancing efficiency and decision-making [90][91] - Examples highlight the use of advanced data analytics and AI to improve risk identification and management processes [90][91]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the life sciences industry. Core Insights - The life sciences industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by Generative AI (GenAI), which is reshaping workplace structures and enhancing the role of human capital in innovation [8][35]. - Companies must prioritize the humanization of AI, adopt a growth mindset, and focus on upskilling employees to thrive in a rapidly changing environment [8][35]. - The integration of GenAI is expected to lead to automation across various functions, but it cannot replace critical thinking, creativity, and strategic thinking of high-skilled professionals [20][21]. Summary by Sections GenAI and Employee Integration - GenAI has been recognized as a disruptive force across industries, including life sciences, prompting companies to rethink operational models and employee roles [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to proactively and responsibly utilize GenAI while implementing retraining programs for employees [13][14]. Automation Potential - GenAI is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and automate routine tasks, with varying degrees of automation expected across different roles in the life sciences value chain [20][21]. - The report outlines that while GenAI can automate data analysis and certain manufacturing activities, roles requiring critical analysis and innovation will remain less affected [21]. Skills Transformation - The report advocates for a shift from traditional skill frameworks to a GenAI M-shaped skill framework, enabling employees to develop diverse digital capabilities and collaborate across disciplines [26][30]. - Continuous learning and the acquisition of advanced engineering skills will be crucial for employees to adapt to the evolving landscape of GenAI in life sciences [32][34]. Implementation Strategies - Companies are encouraged to adopt a comprehensive transformation strategy that integrates GenAI, risk management, and employee development to achieve sustainable growth [33][34]. - The report highlights the importance of assessing employee capabilities, identifying skill gaps, and tailoring training programs to optimize the use of GenAI solutions [34].

Group 1: Overview of the Guidelines - The "Guidelines" for sustainable development reporting were officially released on April 12, 2024, and will be implemented from May 1, 2024[4] - The guidelines aim to enhance the quality of information disclosure and promote a sustainable ecosystem in China's capital market[4] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to lead in improving ESG management levels and achieving sustainable development[4] Group 2: ESG Reporting Requirements - The guidelines require mandatory disclosure for 458 listed companies, covering over 50% of A-share total market capitalization[9] - As of the end of 2023, 20% of companies in the mandatory disclosure range had never published a sustainability or ESG report[9] - The ESG disclosure rate for central enterprises was 83% in 2022, significantly higher than the overall rate of 35% for listed companies[4] Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - SOEs face challenges in meeting new reporting requirements, necessitating comprehensive data collection and management[12] - It is recommended that SOEs begin preparations early and plan their information disclosure timelines effectively[13] - The guidelines emphasize the importance of third-party verification of ESG reports to enhance transparency and credibility[34] Group 4: Importance of ESG Ratings - The implementation of the guidelines is expected to improve ESG disclosure rates and quality, which will positively impact ESG ratings[42] - High-quality ESG disclosures can lead to better market performance and enhanced corporate reputation[42]

Group 1: Regulatory Updates in Mainland China and Hong Kong - The Ministry of Finance of China has revised the Accounting Law, which was passed on June 28, 2024, and will take effect on July 1, 2024 [10]. - On August 29, the Ministry of Finance released a draft for public consultation regarding the Interpretation No. 18 of the Enterprise Accounting Standards, focusing on the subsequent measurement of investment properties held under the floating fee method [13]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) published two regulatory reports on August 16 and August 23, 2024, highlighting common weaknesses and non-compliance issues in financial reporting [15]. Group 2: International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) Updates - The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) completed a post-implementation review of the impairment requirements in IFRS 9, concluding that the execution aligns with expectations and provides useful information to financial statement users [22]. - IASB proposed minor amendments to IAS 21 regarding the translation of financial statements in hyperinflationary economies, allowing for retrospective application [23]. - A draft for public consultation on IFRS 19, concerning disclosures for non-public trust responsibilities, was released on July 30, 2024, aiming to simplify disclosure requirements introduced between February 2021 and May 2024 [25]. Group 3: Sustainability Reporting Updates - The IASB released a draft on July 31, 2024, suggesting examples for reporting climate-related and other uncertainties in financial statements, emphasizing the importance of materiality judgments [28]. - The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) published its first set of industry-specific guidelines on July 3, 2024, to assist companies in disclosing nature-related financial information [31]. - The International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation released a video discussing the interoperability of the European Sustainability Reporting Standards with the ISSB standards on July 18, 2024 [31].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the AI industry [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - AI has been widely applied across various fields, with significant potential demonstrated by the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 [2] - AI technology poses risks such as systemic discrimination, privacy violations, and information bubbles, prompting global regulatory efforts [2] - Different regions, including the EU, UK, US, and China, have adopted varying regulatory approaches based on their technological strengths and resources [2] - The EU has taken a leading role in AI regulation, introducing ethical guidelines, comprehensive legislation, and international conventions [4][16] - The UK focuses on innovation-friendly regulation, avoiding hasty legislation and favoring soft frameworks and guidelines [24][25] - The US emphasizes industry self-regulation and collaboration between government and private sectors, with state-level legislation being more active than federal [32][33] - China has initiated early planning and governance activities in AI, with a focus on ethical norms and international cooperation [42] Regulatory Overview - Globally, 18% of AI regulations are binding, with the majority being soft guidelines, principles, and discussion documents [4] - The EU has a comprehensive AI regulatory system, covering planning, principles, ethics, frameworks, and rules [4][16] - The UK adopts a context-specific, risk-based, and innovation-supportive regulatory approach [25][27] - The US has shifted from voluntary guidelines to administrative actions, with state-level legislation being more active [32][33] - China has a limited number of binding AI regulations, focusing on planning, governance principles, and ethical norms [42] Key Regulatory Documents - **EU**: - *Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI* (2019) outlines a lifecycle framework for trustworthy AI [16] - *EU AI Act* (2024) is the first comprehensive global AI regulation, introducing a risk-based approach [20] - *Framework Convention on AI, Human Rights, Democracy, and the Rule of Law* (2024) is the first legally binding international treaty on responsible AI use [22] - **UK**: - *National AI Strategy* (2021) outlines a 10-year plan to make the UK an AI superpower [25] - *Pro-innovation Approach to AI Regulation* (2023) proposes a principles-based, flexible regulatory framework [27] - **US**: - *Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights* (2022) provides principles for protecting public rights in AI systems [33] - *AI Risk Management Framework* (2023) offers voluntary guidelines for AI risk management [34] - *Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy AI* (2023) emphasizes transparency and accountability in AI development [37] - **China**: - *Next Generation AI Development Plan* (2017) sets the foundation for AI governance and ethical norms [42] - *Global AI Governance Initiative* (2023) and *Shanghai Declaration on AI Global Governance* (2024) highlight China's role in international AI governance [42] Financial Sector AI Regulation - Financial regulators globally are gradually introducing AI-specific regulations, with the EU leading in integrating AI into financial oversight [13][23] - The UK financial regulators leverage existing frameworks to manage AI risks, avoiding the creation of new, isolated regulatory structures [31] - The US financial sector has limited binding AI regulations, with ongoing discussions and expected future rulemaking [39] - China's financial regulators are expected to align with global AI governance trends, with more regulations anticipated in the future [42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global CEOs remain resilient and optimistic about the future, with 92% planning to increase their workforce and recognizing the need for employees to acquire skills for future demands [5][12] - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a critical factor for business growth, with 64% of CEOs indicating they will invest in AI regardless of economic conditions [13][14] - CEOs are increasingly focused on balancing ambitious ESG goals with practical considerations, with 76% willing to divest from parts of their business that could harm their reputation [18][19] Summary by Sections Overview - The report highlights the challenges faced by CEOs, including geopolitical tensions and the need for workforce skill enhancement, while maintaining a focus on long-term growth [5][6] Economic Outlook - CEO confidence in the global economy has decreased from 93% in 2015 to 72% in 2024, reflecting a more complex operating environment [9][10] - Supply chain disruptions and operational issues have emerged as the primary concerns for CEOs, surpassing cybersecurity and geopolitical uncertainties [12] Technology and Generative AI - AI has become central to business strategies, with a significant emphasis on its potential to enhance efficiency and productivity [13][14] - Despite concerns about job losses due to AI, 76% of CEOs believe it will not fundamentally reduce internal job numbers in the next three years [14] Talent - CEOs recognize the need to adapt to changing employee expectations, with 83% expecting a full return to office work in the next three years, a significant increase from 64% in 2023 [15][16] - There is a strong emphasis on investing in local community skill development to ensure a future talent supply, with 92% of CEOs supporting this initiative [16] ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) - The politicalization of ESG issues has increased pressure on CEOs, with 66% admitting they are unprepared for shareholder scrutiny regarding ESG matters [19][21] - CEOs are adjusting their communication strategies around ESG to meet evolving stakeholder expectations, with 69% indicating changes in language and terminology used [21][23]