February 12, 2025 03:23 PM GMT SMIC | Asia Pacific M Idea Subsidy and localization-driven growth amid rising depreciation; keep UW | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | SMIC (0981.HK) | From | To | | Price Target | HK$20.30 | HK$38.00 | Driven by consumption subsidies and advanced node demand, revenue and gross margin guidance beat for 1Q25. Mature node price competition may intensify in 2H25. Consumption subsidies and tariff impacts will trigger revenue growth: SMIC guided for 6-8% revenue growth an ...

12 February 2025 | 7:30PM HKT SMIC (0981.HK) Up to Buy on solid progress, capex guidance | 0981.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$62.70 | Price: HK$45.30 | Upside: 38.4% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688981.SS | 12m Price Target: Rmb157.50 | Price: Rmb100.86 | Upside: 56.2% | We are bullish on SMIC's long-term growth trajectory as we expect it to be supported by continuous demand for localized production. SMIC's management expects stable capex YoY in 2025E, despite the Street's concerns about a slowdown (2025E cape ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 On the downside, demand remains a key risk, with a slowing Chinese economy in focus. We are relatively cautious on 2025 oil demand growth (+1.1Mb/d), including for China (+0.2Mb/d). Slower Chinese demand (UBSe +4.0% GDP) and/or repercussions on tariffs and other headwinds could still bring demand growth lower. A larger surplus and lower oil price, falling below $70/bbl, could increase tensions within OPEC+ and risk weaker compliance. On potential stronger US supply gr ...

HDV充电需求模型 零排放货运行动学习资料请勿外传 蓝色：加州 Blue：California 实线 7-8级牵引车 Solid line： Class7-8 tractor 虚线 ：4-8级作业卡车; Dash line: Class4-8 Vocational truck 图中体现了《先进卡车法规》和《先进车队法规》 The figure considered both CA's ACT and ACF 实线：7-8级牵引车；Solid line: Class7-8 trctor 虚线：4-8级作业卡车; Dash line: Class4-8 Vocational truck 图中体现了第三阶段重型车温室气体排放法规 The figure considered US HDV GHG standard Phase III 通货膨胀抑制法案（IRA）提供了丰厚的补贴 Source: ICCT study. https://theicct.org/publication/ infrastructure-deployment-mhdv-may23/ 场站 / 私人地点 公共 | --- | --- | |--- ...

**Industry/Company Involved**: Semiconductor industry, specifically SMIC (0981.HK) **Key Points**: * **Revenue and Margin Recovery**: SMIC's revenue and margin are expected to continue recovering, driven by a healthier inventory level and localization trend. However, the continuous capacity expansion, increasing supply of mature nodes, rising competition, and geopolitical risks remain concerns. * **Demand Outlook**: The company's demand outlook is positive, with a gradual recovery expected in the industrial and automotive segments in 2H24E, as inventory digestion completes. * **Gross Margin**: SMIC's gross margin is expected to gradually recover, impacted by the increased D&A burden due to continuous capacity expansions. * **Target Price**: Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month target price for SMIC's H-share by 14% to HK$33.4, based on a 34x 2025E P/E multiple. The A-share target price is raised by 14% to Rmb83.9, based on a 273% premium over the H-share target price. * **Earnings Forecast**: The company's revenue forecasts are raised by around 1% each year in 2025E-29E, and gross margin is expected to increase by 0.2~0.3ppts on higher utilization rates. * **Rating**: Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on SMIC (A/H). * **Key Risks**: Better-/weaker-than-expected demand in smartphones and consumer electronics, faster-/slower-than-expected end-market diversification, and restricted access to certain equipment/material supply due to SMIC's inclusion on the US BIS Entity List. **Additional Important Points**: * **Utilization Rates**: SMIC's utilization rates are expected to recover gradually, as shown in Exhibit 9. * **Inventory Days**: Inventory days for China's electronics manufacturing industry returned to 51 days in October 2024, in line with historical levels, supporting demand recovery. * **Earnings Revision Summary**: Exhibit 3 provides a summary of earnings revisions for SMIC. * **Valuation**: SMIC's stock is trading at around its historical average P/E, which is considered reasonable considering its solid long-term growth prospects and market weakness in the near term. * **M&A Rank**: SMIC has a M&A rank of 3, indicating a low probability of being acquired. * **Quantum Database**: Goldman Sachs' proprietary database, Quantum, provides access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts, and ratios for in-depth analysis of SMIC and other companies. **Source**: Goldman Sachs Research, SMIC (0981.HK) Research Report

会议即将开始请稍后 大家好欢迎参加华经电子在谈EC设计钢琴怎么看电话会议目前所有参会者均处于静态下面开始播报名字声明本次会议为华经证券客户开发设计在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议敬请会议参加者充分了解各类投资风险根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险 本次会议内容的知识产权仅为华欣证券所有未经华欣证券事先书面许可任何机构和或个人不得以任何形式转发翻版复制发布或引用会议全部或部分内容亦不得从未经华欣证券书面授权的任何机构个人或其运营的媒体平台接收翻版复制或引用会议的全部或部分内容 不得制作会议纪要对外发送擅自制作会议纪要引起不当传播的后果自负反全所有违者必究跟进的各位投资者大家晚上好我是华星电子团队分析师王海为那今天主要跟各位领导再次汇报我们对于整个IC设计板块当前的一个观点那其实在 两周前我们也重度也重新给各位领导汇报过就是我们就是全球海外大厂的一个就是对于明年整体的市场需求的一个看法然后也给大家就是分不同的应用领域去做了一些分析 那今天呢就我们再次从这个就是需求的维度啊然后包括我们总结看到的一些啊财务数据的维度来给各位领导做一个啊设计板块的深度汇报那么从整个IC设计板块来说的话就是啊公司营 ...

Summary of SMIC (0981.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Ticker**: 0981.HK - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Points from the Earnings Call Financial Performance - **3Q24 Results**: - Revenue increased by **14% QoQ** to **US$2.171 billion** - Gross margin improved to **20.5%**, up **6.5 percentage points QoQ** [10][12] - **4Q24 Guidance**: - Expected revenue growth of **0% to 2% QoQ** - Gross margin projected to remain stable between **18% and 20%** [10][13] Capacity Expansion - **2024 Capacity Additions**: - Management maintains guidance for **60,000 12-inch wafers per month (wpm)** capacity additions, leading to a total capacity of **900,000 wpm** by year-end [10][15] - **Future Capex**: - Capex for 2025 is expected to grow by **8% YoY**, reaching **US$8.5 billion** [10][15] Market Demand and Trends - **2025 Demand Outlook**: - Anticipated growth in wafer demand driven by recovery in major end markets, particularly consumer electronics [12][37] - AI trends are expected to boost demand for semiconductors, especially in power management ICs and low-power computing chips [12][37] - **End Market Performance**: - Consumer electronics, which account for over **50% of SMIC's revenue**, are expected to grow steadily [37] - Industrial and automotive segments are recovering slowly, with expectations of improvement from **2H25** [12][37] Strategic Focus - **Product Mix Improvement**: - Increased focus on high-end power semiconductors, particularly for automotive applications [13][12] - **Technology Platform Development**: - Plans to shift some expansion efforts from logic products to power semiconductors to build a comprehensive technology platform [13][12] Earnings Revisions - **2024 Earnings Revision**: - Earnings revised down by **18%** due to lower-than-expected results in 3Q24 and higher operational expenses anticipated in 4Q24 [15][10] - **Long-term Earnings Outlook**: - Slight upward revisions for 2025-2029 earnings by **3% to 1%** due to better demand outlook and recovery in gross margins [15][10] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: - 12-month target price raised by **14%** to **HK$29.2** based on a **31x 2025E P/E** [15][39] - **Valuation Methodology**: - Target price reflects long-term EPS growth compared to global peers [15][39] Risks - **Key Risks**: - Demand fluctuations in smartphones and consumer electronics - Potential delays in end-market diversification - Supply chain restrictions due to geopolitical factors [40][39] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: - SMIC is rated as **Neutral** due to a balanced outlook of long-term growth potential against near-term market challenges [37][39]

我们第三期重磅启动这一期是我们的第四期这一期我们将聚焦到CXO到底有没有出ICU这个主题然后来分析研判这个CXO市场的一个机遇和挑战这一次我们非常重磅的邀请到了来自智商证券的大健康组的首席分析师孙健以及方证证券医药资深分析师许瑞 还有我们非常资深的有20多年产业经验的真格生物的CEO陈建新以及招眼生物的集团副总裁临床事业部总经理顾静良顾总来做交流首先我们请许睿老师来给我们做CXO市场的挑战和机遇分析有请许睿老师 各位线上的领导们投资者们大家上午好,我是方程顺券的一二行业分析师许瑞,那么很高兴今天在借助这个线上的这个平台给大家分享我们对于一些商务行业的一些思考。 我主要是在公司内部的主要是负责这个医药行业板块里面细分的这个药品相关的这个研究那么CXO的这个报告呢也是我们此前对于整个CXO当下的这个情况以及下一个五年展望做出了一定的这样的一个分享那么接下来就给您让我们汇报这样的一个整个的一个PPT的内容那么我们的标题是 中国CXO行业的下一个五年全球化和新增量定存的这样的一个高质量发展的一个阶段那么 从投资逻辑来看我们中国的CXO企业经历了大概四个发展阶段大致可以分为2015年以前2015年到2020年2020年 ...

Key Points Industry Overview 1. **PCB Industry in 2023**: The PCB industry experienced a challenging yet opportunistic year in 2023. Despite a decline in global PCB sales, growth in specific areas like AI servers and HDI high-density interconnect boards stood out. Competition was intense, particularly in the automotive PCB sector, while the widespread adoption of 5G smartphones was expected to drive market demand recovery in the coming years. The rise of personal computers and high-end servers presented potential opportunities for the PCB industry, especially for mainland manufacturers actively entering the AIPC field and seeking growth in the server market, particularly in AI computing. However, challenges remained in the high-end PCB market, including material procurement and production lines, despite the strong potential of the AI server market. Overall, the PCB industry was expected to achieve significant expansion in the coming years, driven by the growing demand for high-speed network communication PCB boards. [1] 2. **Market Dynamics**: The PCB industry in 2023 was relatively flat, with global PCB sales decreasing slightly. However, growth in areas such as AI servers and HDI high-density interconnect boards became highlights. Competition was intense, especially in the automotive PCB sector, while the widespread adoption of 5G smartphones was expected to drive market demand recovery in the coming years. [1] 3. **Growth Drivers**: The rise of AIPC and the growing demand for high-end servers presented significant opportunities for the PCB industry. Mainland manufacturers, such as Shenghong Electronics and Guanghe, were actively exploring the AIPC field, while the rapid growth in server demand, particularly in AI computing, offered major development opportunities for PCB manufacturers. [2] Market Segments 4. **AI Server Market**: The AI server market was experiencing strong growth, with NVIDIA's server production running at full capacity and sales expected to reach $2 billion to $4 billion. The BT whiteboard market decreased by 16% due to intense competition, and domestic substitution was expected to take two to three years. [2] 5. **High-End PCB Market**: The high-end PCB market, particularly in the laser module field, was experiencing a shortage of supply due to high technical barriers. A few companies with technical advantages dominated the market, and orders were expected to continue until 2025. [3] 6. **M3F Technical Board Market**: There were very few domestic manufacturers of M3F technical boards due to a lack of production lines, experience, and reliance on imported equipment. This led to a high concentration of demand for eight-generation laser modules in a few manufacturers, and the production of such high-end products involved high risks and challenges. [4] 7. **ABF Substrate Market**: The ABF substrate market was currently dominated by Korean, Taiwanese, and Japanese companies, and mainland China faced challenges in material procurement. Although several domestic companies were developing ABF films, it was difficult to produce high-end products on a large scale in the short term. [5] Company Performance 8. **Huawei**: Huawei's demand for PCBs was driving the high-end PCB market, and the tight capacity led to price increases. [3] 9. **NVIDIA**: NVIDIA's server production was running at full capacity, with sales expected to reach $2 billion to $4 billion. [2] 10. **Shanghai Huali**: Shanghai Huali, with its strong production capacity, HDI technology, and battlefield capabilities, particularly in AI-related product areas, achieved excellent performance throughout the year. [7] Future Outlook 11. **AIPC Market**: It was expected that mainland PCB manufacturers would face significant opportunities in the AIPC market by 2025 or 2026, particularly for those old brands that had long focused on desktop motherboard manufacturing. [8] 12. **800G/1.6T High-End Switch Market**: The 800G/1.6T high-end switch market was expected to heat up rapidly and become a future competitive focus. These switches required a high number of PCB layers, such as 28 to 40 layers, and companies with rich experience and production capacity, such as Shanghai Huali and Huali Electronics, would occupy an important position in the market. [11]

对话产业链大佬 - PCB 和 IC 载板行业近况分享 20240814_原文 2024 年 08 月 15 日 01:09 发言人 00:00 OKOK 好的，各位把这个记一下。各位投资者晚上好，我是东吴香港的张一凡。非常感谢大家百忙中来参 加本次会议，本次会议就是主要围绕 PCB 行业展开，也是请到了行业内非常资深的 PCB 研发专家做一个分 享。首先会分为两个环节，首先是专家大概介绍 40 分钟，然后留 20 分钟左右给各位投资者就关心的问题 进行提问互动。请专家开始分享吧。 发言人 00:26 OKOK，首先我把中国 PCB 的产能的情况，包括 PCB 行业中的竞争主要局，我跟大家分分享一下。就是说 2023 年相当于是在整个 PCP 行业是比较淡季的一年。主要就是说 2023 年我们的全球 PCP 的销售额，大 概应该有有 700 691 1 亿美金，大概就是 5000 亿人民币。中国大陆应该是占了一半，按 50%去计算， 大概中国大陆只有 200，就是 2500 亿人民币，相当于是这这个比 2022 年应该少了百分少了一些，少了 一部分。那个产能的需求慢慢在下降，特别是消费性 PCD 这种低端的消 ...