各位投资者大家下午好我是华信许志燕自从咱们这个黄金一点通双周的节目推动以来投资者也特别关注 华安的确作为管的这么大的黄金一切,我们作为服务我们的客户,在咱们平台上推送了这个《万德》推送咱们黄金联通,今天是第八期,我会中间隔一期才参加。 感谢大家时间,在A股市场发生了比较大的变化的时候,我们还坚持咱们的黄金的投降,我想对我们的投资者也是一个相对负责的态度。当然A股市场本身发生了很多变化,早上我们E7F的盘线播报,今天我也做了一个介绍。 所以但是我们的黄金的确它是一种另类资产也是在大洲期货人士中对我们的投资者在过去的时间也是占了比较多的配置贡献在当前整个市场黄金市场还是应该说超过很多人的预期我们去年年底这行情对市场中长期也有个判断的确在我们这个分析框架下我们的黄金也是 讲的非常多就是说在当下我们怎么去看待黄金怎么去看待在美元降息通道、地缘政治冲突等等也包括我们A股温暖下我们的黄金的退出问题今天由我来给大家做一个相对详细的分析和解读这是咱们的节目应该说每一期咱们也得到了很多投资者的关注 黄金作为一类大类资产的非常重要的甚至可以说稀缺的这样一个配属品种到今年在全球上依然是领先 领导全球但十月份本身虽然我们还是涨得非常 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1][2][3] Core Views - The report focuses on global macro strategy, analyzing what is priced in across G10 and emerging markets (EM) [12][18] - It provides a cross-asset monitor highlighting large sigma deviations across equities, rates, FX, and commodities [13] G10 Central Bank Rates - The US policy rate is 5.00%, with a market-implied max rate of 4.78% and min rate of 3.25% by end-2024 [19] - Eurozone policy rate is 3.50%, with a market-implied max rate of 3.32% and min rate of 1.94% [19] - Japan's policy rate is 0.25%, with a market-implied max rate of 0.35% and min rate of 0.23% [19] Emerging Markets (EM) Rate Movements - India's target rate is 6.50%, with a 3-month rate movement of 9bp and a 12-month movement of -4bp [24] - China's target rate is 2.35%, with a 3-month rate movement of -22bp and a 12-month movement of -35bp [24] - Brazil's target rate is 10.75%, with a 3-month rate movement of 102bp and a 12-month movement of 178bp [24] Cross-Asset Performance - Top performers in cross-asset include JPY 5y, ILS 5y, and CNH 5y, while bottom performers include CAD 2y, CNH 10y, and CSI 300 [26] - Equity performers show significant movements, with the CSI 300 experiencing a 22.6% change over 1 month [31] Equity Market Performance - The DOW JONES showed a 1-day change of 0.5% and a 1-month change of 4.8% [31] - The S&P 500 had a 1-day change of 0.8% and a 1-month change of 4.9% [31] - The NASDAQ experienced a 1-day change of 0.8% and a 1-month change of 5.4% [31] Inflation Rates - The US headline CPI is at 2.40% YoY, while core CPI is at 3.30% YoY [19] - Eurozone headline CPI is at 1.80% YoY, with core CPI at 2.70% YoY [19] - Japan's headline CPI is at 3.00% YoY [19]

11 Oct 2024 10:42:26 ET │ 14 pages Global Macro Strategy Latest Marked to Market CITI'S TAKE Please note that this publication is not distributed via email. Please check citivelocity.com. Suggested positions for macro portfolio managers. See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, i ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The macro outlook indicates steady global growth into the next year, with easing inflation and significant rate cuts expected from the Fed and ECB, while Japan is expected to hike rates [12][15] - The report highlights a stronger USD and lower oil prices as part of the economic forecast [12][15] - The average stock level macro risk contribution varies by region, with North America at 42.1%, Europe at 26.8%, Japan at 24.4%, and Asia/Pacific Ex Japan at 23.8% [7] - Sector performance shows Energy leading with 43% macro risk contribution, followed closely by Information Technology at 41% and Financials at 37% [7] Summary by Sections Macro Insights - The report forecasts a stronger USD and lower oil prices, with policy rates expected to decrease in the US and Euro Area by the end of 2024 [15][16] - Inflation is projected to decline, with a focus on the dynamics of core goods and services [18] Fund Performance - The annual median performance for various fund categories shows significant variation, with Equity Long Only at 22% and Multi-Strat Event Driven at 6% for 2024 YTD [11] - The report provides insights into fund flows, indicating a shift towards defensive sectors and away from Energy [66][68] Style Performance - The report outlines global style performance, with Value and Growth styles showing mixed results across regions [23][27] - Tactical style recommendations suggest a preference for sectors like Financials and Health Care, while Energy is rated lower [27] Market Positioning - The report includes a positioning matrix indicating market sentiment, with increasing long positions in certain sectors and decreasing in others [69][81] - Fund flows indicate a trend towards defensive sectors, with significant inflows into Consumer Staples and Utilities [66][68]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, with target prices set at DKr975 and $1,060 respectively [17][20]. Core Insights - The GLP-1 market is experiencing significant growth, with a rolling 4-week TRx growth of 260% in obesity and 23% in diabetes. Forecasts predict Novo generating $23 billion in diabetes sales and $9 billion in obesity sales for 2024, with peak sales reaching $52 billion and $30 billion respectively [2][8]. - Novo Nordisk is currently supplying over 12 million patients with GLP-1 medications and has plans to increase capacity to supply 50-100 million patients at peak [4][7]. - The report highlights key themes for 2024, including increased access to GLP-1 medications in the US and abroad, broadening indications for treatments, and increased promotional efforts by Novo [4][7]. Summary by Sections GLP-1 Market Dynamics - The report notes that Wegovy and Zepbound have a TRx market share of 56% and 43% respectively, with a year-to-date US GLP-1 Rx growth of 29% after a 70% growth in 2023 [3][8]. - Ozempic retains a leading market share of 46% in the diabetes segment, with recent trends showing improved supply dynamics [3][4]. Company Performance and Projections - Novo Nordisk's management has indicated confidence in upwardly adjusting FY24 guidance due to favorable GLP-1 and insulin dynamics, despite a recent pullback in share prices [2][4]. - The report anticipates that Novo's fill-finish capacity will more than triple through 2024, supporting continuity of supply for patients [7][8]. Market Size and Future Outlook - The global GLP-1 market is projected to exceed $170 billion by 2035, with Novo and Eli Lilly expected to dominate this market [8][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for GLP-1 medications to expand into additional therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, which could further enhance market growth [4][20].

Citi Research October 11, 2024 FX Flows Weekly See AppendixA-1 for AnalystCertification, Important Disclosures and ResearchAnalystAffiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe Firm may have a conflict ofinterestthat could affectthe objectivity ofthis report. Investors should considerthis report as only a single factor in making their inv ...

各位投资者大家下午好,我是平安海外宏观分析师范承凯。今天为大家带来的是我们对于美债利率回升到4%左右的水平以后的一个思考。 我们今天的讨论主要会简单地讨论一下近一个月左右,尤其是美联储首次降息以来,美战利率反而出现了一个大幅的反弹,背后的几条线索。 那么整体来看,我们觉得可能未来一段时间,十年每战略率都可能会在4%左右的这个天高水平来运行。我们觉得这个水平也算是一个相对合理的水平,前期的这个快速的下跌可能还有一点超跌的感觉。 那在这个里面我们还重点想讨论一下十年美债利率反弹的影响那么这里有四个问题会进一步的去讨论第一个就是对于中国资产的影响可能国内的投资者也非常的关注尤其是目前整个中国的股票市场出现了很大的变化近期出现了很强的反弹的势能但是波动也在加剧 那么美债率率反弹对于整个A股港股的影响到底有多大呢?我们整体会觉得可能会增加估值压力,包括价格的波动风险,但是可能从一个全球资金配置的角度来说,这一轮的资金再配置可能是刚刚起步,未来还是有空间的。 第二个问题,我们会讨论一下对科技股的影响。为什么会讨论科技股?其实因为我们今年看到在上半年,尤其一到四月的时候,也是出现了美债利率的一个上升,但是也看到科技股是很强 ...

Welcome to the weekly UBS Asia Trading Floor Insights Call. My name is Jamie Briggs from UBS Knowledge Network Asia. From across the floor today, I'm joined by Alex Lim, Shane Carroll, Chris Ma and Ken Yin-tse. Please stay tuned to the end for an important disclaimer. Over the past week, we've seen the Hong Kong indices rise between 9% and 10% whilst China enjoyed the Golden Week holiday. They've given almost all of that back today as China's reopened and the NDRC didn't amount to any new force behind the p ...

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the global markets, particularly the repricing of implied volatilities across various asset classes over the past couple of months [1]. Key Points - There has been a notable adjustment in implied volatilities for the S&P 500 index, as well as for currencies such as the dollar, yen, and euro, and for oil [1]. Additional Important Content - The presentation included a chart illustrating the two-month implied volatilities, highlighting the trends and changes in these asset classes [1].

国庆期间全球农产品表现&粮价反弹受益标的 20241008 摘要 • 国庆期间，全球农产品市场表现分化。油脂油料板块中，马来西亚棕榈油 价格领涨，受原油价格上涨驱动；大豆和豆粕价格则受美国大豆库存增加 和巴西大豆产量预期创纪录等利空因素影响而下跌。 • 粮食板块方面，CBOT 玉米和小麦价格上涨，受美国季度库存报告下调玉 米产量和巴西干旱影响玉米播种进度等因素影响。俄罗斯提高了玉米出口 关税也推动了粮食市场的小幅上扬。 • 软商品板块中，国际糖价高位震荡，新加坡橡胶价格巨幅震荡后收涨。欧 盟委员会可能推迟 EUDR 政策法案的消息对橡胶市场产生短期利空影响， 但整体市场反应迅速恢复。 • 四季度全球农产品市场需要关注南美大豆播种进度、美国贸易政策变化、 东南亚棕榈油产量与库存变化、中国养殖规模对豆粕需求等因素。 • 粮食板块需要关注南美第一季玉米播种进度、中国粮食采购政策、中国冬 小麦播种及印度大米出口情况等因素。 • 软商品板块需要关注巴西食糖出口数据及美国原糖期货交割数据、欧盟 EUDR 政策推迟执行时间及其对橡胶溢价的影响等因素。 Q&A 国庆期间全球农产品市场的表现如何？ 国庆期间，全球农产品市场表现 ...