深圳市宏观经济专题研究报告 Report on the Special Research of Shenzhen's Macroeconomy 2025 年 智领产业 研判未来 智研钧略®精品行研 深圳区域专题 智研咨询 1 www.chyxx.com 智研钧略®精品行研 深圳区域专题 目 录 | 一、宏观经济 4 | | --- | | （一）国民经济核算：全市经济稳中有进，区域发展各具特色 4 | | （二）工业：工业生产保持快速增长，新动能培育成效显著 5 | | （三）投资：固定投资持续稳定增长，高技术产业投资活跃 10 | | （四）国内贸易：三季度社零总额增速放缓，餐饮消费韧性较强 13 | | （五）对外贸易：前三季度货物进出口规模同比增长 20.9%，创历史同期 | | 新高 14 | | （六）运输：三季度客运市场稳健复苏，货运承压但现改善 15 | | （七）金融：金融市场保持平稳运行，金融机构存贷款余额稳定增长 17 | | （八）物价：居民消费价格温和上涨，食品价格企稳回升 18 | | （九）旅游：旅游市场总体快速增长，各核心指标均有显著增长 19 | | （十）跨境投资：新签外资项 ...

北京市宏观经济专题研究报告 Special Research Report on the Macroeconomy of Beijing Municipality 2025 年 智领产业 研判未来 智研钧略®精品行研 北京市区域报告 智研咨询 1 www.chyxx.com 智研钧略®精品行研 北京市区域报告 目 录 | 一、宏观经济 4 | | --- | | （一）生产总值：经济实力逐步增强，经济发展质量和效益持续提升 4 | | （二）工业生产：工业经济止跌回升，内生动力加快释放 6 | | （三）消费市场：消费品市场稳步恢复，物价总体稳定 8 | | （四）固定投资：投资结构持续优化，房地产投资端与消费端活跃度提升 | | 11 | | （五）对外贸易：进出口总额保持增长态势，外商投资下滑 15 | | 二、财政实力 17 | | 三、政策与产业洞察 19 | | （一）产业结构：第三产业占据主导地位，数字经济规模不断壮大 19 | | （二）战略性新兴产业：战略性新兴产业不断发展，R&D 经费投入持续增 | | 加 21 | | （三）产业政策：大力支持战略性新兴产业、未来产业发展，优化营商环 | ...

智研钧略®精品行研 江苏省区域报告 目 录 | 一、宏观经济 4 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | （一）工业：11 月江苏省工业增加值增幅扩张，企业数量持续增加 4 | | | | 1、11 月江苏省工业增加值增幅扩张，新兴产业表现亮眼 4 | | | | 2、工业产品出厂价格整体同比有所下降，企业成本面有所改善 5 | | | | 3、企业数量持续增加，亏损企业数量下降 7 | | | | （二）投资：固定资产投资同比增长 | 1.5%，房地产投资低位震荡 9 | | | （三）消费：全省消费市场持续回暖，重点品类表现亮眼 13 | | | | （四）服务业：规上服务业营业收入同比增幅扩大，生产性服务业贡献提升.15 | | | | （五）价格指数：整体 CPI 涨幅温和，医疗保健类居民消费价格指数涨幅大.15 | | | | （六）金融：住户存款余额环比有所上升，企业和个人融资意愿强 17 | | | | （七）对外贸易：11 | | 月出口总额平稳增长，进口总额短期下降 19 | | 二、政策与产业洞察 22 | | | | （一）政策：推动石化产业高质量发展，促消费利好政策频出 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment outlook for the automotive smart cockpit industry from 2021 to 2027, indicating potential growth opportunities [11][42]. Core Insights - The automotive smart cockpit industry is experiencing significant development, driven by technological advancements and increasing consumer demand for enhanced in-car experiences [11][19]. - The report highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics, competitive landscape, and investment strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities within the industry [14][21]. - Key trends include the integration of advanced technologies such as AI and IoT, which are expected to reshape the automotive smart cockpit landscape [11][42]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive smart cockpit industry is defined and characterized by its unique features and applications [11][5]. - Recent economic indicators for the industry in China over the past 3-5 years show a positive growth trajectory [5]. Market Characteristics - The report analyzes market demand characteristics, emphasizing the growing consumer preference for smart cockpit features [6][10]. - It discusses the supply characteristics and the overall market landscape, including competitive dynamics [10][11]. Development Environment - The political, legal, economic, and social environments affecting the automotive smart cockpit industry are examined, highlighting the regulatory framework and macroeconomic factors [7][19]. - Technological advancements are identified as a critical driver for industry growth, with a focus on new research and development in smart cockpit technologies [12][19]. Market Trends and Forecast - The report forecasts the market size and growth trends for the automotive smart cockpit industry from 2021 to 2027, indicating robust demand and expansion opportunities [11][42]. - It also outlines the expected supply-demand balance and key trends influencing production and operational strategies [11][42]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is analyzed, including a SWOT analysis of the industry, identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats [32][35]. - Key players in the automotive smart cockpit sector are discussed, along with their competitive advantages and market strategies [35][40]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific investment opportunities within the automotive smart cockpit industry, focusing on technological innovations and market expansion strategies [12][42]. - It emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in emerging technologies to enhance competitive positioning [12][42].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the furniture industry. Core Insights - The Chinese furniture industry has experienced significant growth in exports, with a record high of $73.83 billion in 2021, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.4% [12]. - The industry is transitioning from traditional OEM/ODM models to cross-border e-commerce, which is becoming the primary method for exporting furniture products [14]. - The report highlights the importance of adapting to international regulations, particularly the EU's new environmental standards, which will impact market access for Chinese furniture manufacturers [28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview of the Chinese Furniture Industry's Overseas Expansion - The furniture industry is defined as movable items used in various spaces, categorized by materials, purposes, and structures [9][10]. - The overseas expansion of Chinese furniture began in the 1990s, evolving through four stages: rapid growth (1995-2005), stable development (2006-2012), a slowdown (2013-2019), and a new expansion phase from 2020 onwards [12]. Section 2: Background Analysis of the Chinese Furniture Industry's Overseas Development - Since 2020, various policies have been implemented to stabilize foreign trade amidst changing economic conditions [25]. - The EU's tightening environmental regulations pose challenges for Chinese furniture exports, necessitating compliance with new supply chain traceability requirements [28]. Section 3: Current Status of the Chinese Furniture Industry - China accounts for approximately 39% of global furniture production, making it the largest producer and exporter [63]. - The industry has a well-established supply chain, with a focus on innovation and quality, supported by leading companies investing in advanced manufacturing technologies [66][68]. Section 4: Analysis of Chinese Furniture Exports - In the first nine months of 2024, China's furniture and parts exports reached $49.54 billion, marking a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year [73]. - Key categories contributing to export growth include metal and wooden furniture, with significant fluctuations observed in monthly export figures [73].

Company Overview - Hesai Technology, founded in 2014, is a leading player in the LiDAR industry, specializing in LiDAR products for autonomous driving, ADAS, and robotics [10] - The company went public on NASDAQ in February 2023, becoming the first Chinese LiDAR company to list in the US [10] - Hesai's revenue grew by 56 1% YoY in 2023, reaching RMB 1 877 billion, but the company remains unprofitable with a net loss of RMB 1 79 billion in H1 2024 [1][30] - LiDAR products account for over 95% of Hesai's revenue, with AT128 and Pandar128 contributing more than 60% of total revenue in 2023 [2][51] LiDAR Market and Industry Trends - The global automotive LiDAR market reached $540 million in 2023, a 79 9% YoY increase, driven by the rapid adoption of autonomous driving and ADAS technologies [3][87] - China's LiDAR market is booming, with 574,200 LiDAR units installed in passenger vehicles in 2023, and the number is expected to approach 1 million in 2024 [5][87] - The LiDAR industry is highly concentrated, with Chinese companies like Hesai, RoboSense, and Innovusion dominating the global market [5][87] - The LiDAR industry is moving towards chip-based, array-based, and pure solid-state technologies, with FMCW LiDAR expected to coexist with ToF LiDAR in the future [75][79] Hesai's Product Portfolio and Technology - Hesai offers 7 series of LiDAR products, including AT, FT, Pandar, QT, XT, ET, and OT series, covering various applications such as ADAS, autonomous driving, and robotics [11][13] - The company launched the AT512, a 512-line ultra-high-definition long-range LiDAR, in January 2024, and the ATX, a wide-angle long-range LiDAR, in April 2024 [13] - Hesai's AT128 LiDAR, launched in 2021, has become a popular choice among automakers, with over 70 vehicle models from 19 automakers adopting it as of June 2024 [10][59] - The company has invested heavily in chip development, with its V1 0 and V1 5 chips already in mass production and V2 0 and V3 0 chips under development [72] Financial Performance and Challenges - Hesai's revenue grew from RMB 328 million in 2019 to RMB 1 877 billion in 2023, but the company has been consistently unprofitable, with cumulative losses of RMB 1 022 billion from 2021 to 2023 [1][30] - The company's gross margin declined from 70 3% in 2019 to 35 2% in 2023 due to intense competition, product mix changes, and rising raw material costs [33] - Hesai's R&D expenses accounted for 42 1% of total revenue in 2023, reflecting the company's commitment to maintaining its technological edge [63] - The company faces challenges such as high production costs, increasing competition, and the need to continuously invest in R&D to stay ahead [1][30] Strategic Partnerships and Expansion - Hesai has established partnerships with 19 automakers, including SAIC, Geely, and NIO, and has secured mass production contracts for over 70 vehicle models [10][59] - The company has expanded its production capacity with the launch of the Hertz Manufacturing Center in Hangzhou and the Maxwell Intelligent Manufacturing Center in Shanghai, with a combined annual capacity of 270,000 units [67][68] - Hesai has formed strategic partnerships with companies like Bosch, Xiaomi, and Meituan, which have invested in the company and supported its growth [18][19] - The company opened its Columbus South China Operation Center in October 2024 to strengthen its presence in the region and explore new business opportunities [73] Future Outlook - The global automotive LiDAR market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 37 5% from 2023 to 2029, reaching $3 63 billion by 2029 [87] - China's L2 ADAS penetration rate reached 47 3% in 2023 and is expected to exceed 55% in 2024, driving further demand for LiDAR [110] - Hesai is well-positioned to benefit from the growing adoption of LiDAR in autonomous driving and ADAS applications, but it needs to address its profitability challenges and maintain its technological leadership [87][110]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the significant importance of the new energy industry, particularly in the context of China's "dual carbon" goals, indicating a strong investment outlook for the sector [2][15]. Core Insights - The new energy industry is experiencing rapid growth, with solar and wind power becoming the main focus of construction. As of August 2024, China's installed capacity for solar power reached 75,235 MW, and wind power reached 47,403 MW, accounting for 24.06% and 15.16% of the total installed capacity, respectively [2][26]. - The report highlights the competitive advantages of state-owned enterprises in the new energy sector, as they continue to expand their installed capacity and power generation. However, these enterprises face challenges due to the declining prices of renewable energy and the need for innovative business models [3][58]. - The report outlines the necessity for a market-oriented development mechanism for renewable energy, emphasizing the importance of enhancing the electricity market and establishing a unified green certificate trading market [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Industry Development Prospects - The new energy industry is characterized by its rich connotation, with solar and wind power dominating the landscape. The global renewable energy installed capacity reached 3,864,522 MW by 2023, with solar and wind power leading the growth [7][11]. - The economic viability of renewable energy has rapidly improved, with significant cost reductions in solar and wind power generation technologies. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar power has decreased by 90% from 2010 to 2023, making it competitive with fossil fuels [15][18]. 2. Advantages of State-Owned Enterprises - State-owned enterprises like Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy are expanding their renewable energy capacities, but they are facing profit pressures due to market price declines [3][58]. - Longyuan Power's installed capacity reached 37,880.40 MW by mid-2024, with a notable increase in its renewable energy investments [58]. 3. National Policy Emphasis - The government is promoting a comprehensive green transition in economic and social development, with plans to increase investment in renewable energy equipment by over 25% by 2027 compared to 2023 [2][3]. - The report discusses the establishment of a new power system to enhance the acceptance and regulation of renewable energy within the grid [3][15]. 4. Market Trends - The report notes the sustained enthusiasm in the new energy investment market, with fuel cells and hydrogen technologies emerging as investment hotspots [3][15]. - The integration of wind, solar, and storage systems is gaining attention, with distributed solar power becoming a significant growth driver [3][36]. 5. Challenges in the Industry - The report identifies risks such as overcapacity in the solar industry and the need for improved management capabilities among enterprises [3][21]. - The decline in renewable energy prices poses profitability risks for power generation companies, necessitating a transformation in business models [3][21]. 6. Accelerating New Power System Construction - The report emphasizes the need for accelerated construction of a new power system, highlighting the importance of innovative development mechanisms for renewable energy [3][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the construction industry or the eight major state-owned enterprises (SOEs) within it. Core Insights - The construction industry's added value growth has slightly declined, with a notable impact from external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and international geopolitical conflicts. The added value of the construction industry in 2023 was 8.57 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.80% of GDP, showing a slight recovery from previous years [1][2]. - The new order amount for the eight major construction SOEs has seen a minor decline of 0.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, totaling 7.89 trillion yuan. The market share of these SOEs has increased significantly from 24.38% in 2013 to 46.8% in 2022, indicating a trend towards industry concentration [2][21]. - The report highlights ongoing strategic restructuring and integration among state-owned enterprises, with 28 groups and 50 companies restructured as of July 2024. This is aimed at enhancing core competitiveness and addressing issues of homogeneous competition within the sector [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Downstream Demand and New Orders - The construction industry's total output value has steadily increased, but downstream demand continues to slow. The added value of the construction industry in the first half of 2024 was 3.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [1][8]. - The new order amount for the eight major construction SOEs has slightly decreased, reflecting a mixed performance across different enterprises [2][21]. 2. Core Performance Indicators - The core performance indicators of major construction SOEs have shown stable growth, with companies like China State Construction achieving a revenue increase of 2.8% in the first half of 2024 [34][44]. - China Energy Engineering has also reported a revenue growth of 1.11% during the same period, driven by its focus on energy and infrastructure projects [44][47]. 3. Policy and Demand Drivers - Energy conservation and emission reduction remain key policy themes, with significant efforts to promote energy-efficient construction practices [54][55]. - New policies aimed at improving rural healthcare infrastructure are expected to create new market opportunities for the construction industry [58][59]. 4. Financing Trends - The financing pace for construction SOEs has accelerated, with a shift towards issuing corporate bonds as a primary financing method. This trend is supported by government policies encouraging direct financing [62][63]. - The issuance of green bonds has also become a significant avenue for financing, with major SOEs like China Power Construction issuing green bonds to support sustainable infrastructure projects [66].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil and gas industry. Core Insights - OPEC+ has continued to reduce oil production to maintain high prices, with September 2024 production at 26.044 million barrels per day, down 604,000 barrels from August [1][2] - International oil prices have shown a fluctuating trend, with Brent and WTI averaging $81.55 and $76.99 per barrel respectively from January to September 2024, indicating a slight year-on-year change [2][11] - China's oil and gas production has been on the rise, with crude oil output increasing by 2.1% to 143 million tons and natural gas output rising by 6.6% to 163.66 billion cubic meters in the first eight months of 2024 [2][21] Summary by Sections OPEC Production and Price Trends - OPEC+ has voluntarily reduced oil output since 2023 to sustain high prices, with significant declines in production noted in September 2024 [1][6] - The report highlights a downward adjustment in global oil demand forecasts by OPEC, reflecting concerns over economic slowdown [6][11] Domestic Oil and Gas Production - China's oil and gas production has shown consistent growth, with notable increases in both crude oil and natural gas output in 2024 [2][21] - The report attributes the growth in natural gas production to adjustments in domestic pricing mechanisms and market stimulation [2][21] Technological Advancements and Exploration - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced deep-sea exploration due to the increasing difficulty in accessing quality oil and gas resources domestically [3][49] - The successful operation of the "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project in September 2024 marks a significant advancement in China's deep-sea production capabilities [3][52] Market Dynamics and Company Performance - New潮能源 has reported a 9.27% increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, driven by rising oil prices and increased production [30][31] - 杰瑞股份 has maintained stable profitability despite a decline in revenue, focusing on global market expansion and technological innovation [38][41] Regulatory Changes and Green Transition - The introduction of new regulations in the natural gas sector aims to enhance efficiency and promote sustainable practices within the industry [47][48] - The report outlines the government's commitment to integrating oil and gas exploration with renewable energy initiatives as part of a broader green transition strategy [49][50]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy storage industry, but it highlights the rapid growth and potential of various energy storage technologies, particularly in the context of China's energy transition [16][17] Core Views - The energy storage industry, particularly new energy storage technologies, is experiencing rapid growth, with China's new energy storage installed capacity reaching 22.6 GW in 2023, nearly 10 times the capacity at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [16] - The industry is diversifying, with various technologies such as mechanical, electrochemical, thermal, and hydrogen storage each having unique applications and advantages [7][10] - The market is driven by technological advancements, policy support, and the need for energy transition, with significant growth expected in the coming years [16][17] Industry Overview New Energy Storage Definition and Classification - New energy storage refers to energy storage technologies other than pumped hydro, including thermal, electrical, and hydrogen storage [7] - Electrical storage is further divided into physical, electromagnetic, and electrochemical storage, with technologies like compressed air, flywheel, lithium-ion batteries, and flow batteries being prominent [7] Comparison of Major Energy Storage Technologies - Each energy storage technology has unique characteristics, making them suitable for different applications, such as frequency regulation, peak shaving, and seasonal energy storage [10] - Technologies like flywheel and supercapacitors are ideal for short-duration applications, while pumped hydro and compressed air are better suited for longer-duration needs [10] Application Scenarios and Industrialization Stages - Energy storage applications are categorized based on duration requirements, with different technologies suited for capacity, energy, power, and backup applications [13] - China's energy storage technologies are largely on par with international standards, with some technologies like lithium-ion and flow batteries already in the commercialization stage [13] New Energy Storage Installed Capacity - China's new energy storage installed capacity reached 22.6 GW in 2023, a tenfold increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with continued growth into 2024 [16] - By the first half of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage projects reached 44.44 GW, a 40% increase from the end of 2023 [16] Mechanical Energy Storage Compressed Air Energy Storage - Compressed air energy storage (CAES) involves storing energy by compressing air during off-peak hours and releasing it to generate electricity during peak demand [19] - The technology is evolving, with new variants like adiabatic, isothermal, and liquid air storage showing promise, though challenges remain in efficiency and cost [19] - The CAES market in China is growing, with 7 operational projects by the end of 2023, totaling 182.5 MW, and further expansion expected [21] Flywheel Energy Storage - Flywheel energy storage uses high-speed rotating flywheels to store kinetic energy, offering high power density and fast response times, making it suitable for applications like grid frequency regulation [26] - China's flywheel storage market is still in its early stages, with only 0.2% of the total new energy storage capacity in 2023, but significant projects are underway, indicating future growth potential [28] Thermal Energy Storage Molten Salt Thermal Storage - Molten salt thermal storage is a promising technology for large-scale, long-duration energy storage, with applications in solar thermal power, industrial heat recovery, and district heating [33] - The technology has seen significant development, with global installed capacity reaching 1.4% of total energy storage by 2023, and further growth expected as costs decrease and applications expand [34] Chemical Energy Storage Electrolytic Water Hydrogen Production - Electrolytic water hydrogen production is a sustainable method for generating hydrogen, with various technologies like alkaline, PEM, and solid oxide electrolysis being developed [41] - The market for green hydrogen is expected to grow rapidly, with global demand projected to exceed 150,000 tons by 2025 and 3 million tons by 2030, driven by decarbonization policies and falling electricity costs [47] Electromagnetic Energy Storage Superconducting Energy Storage - Superconducting energy storage (SMES) offers high energy density and fast response times, making it suitable for improving grid stability and power quality [50] - The technology is still in the research phase, but its potential applications in distributed energy systems and microgrids are significant, with a projected global market size of $10 billion by 2035 [53] Electrochemical Energy Storage Overview and Installed Capacity - Electrochemical energy storage, including lithium-ion, lead-acid, and flow batteries, is a key component of the energy storage market, with China's installed capacity reaching 10.37 GW in the first half of 2024 [56] - The market is dominated by lithium-ion batteries, which accounted for 97.3% of new energy storage installations in 2023, with significant growth expected in the coming years [72] Lead-Acid and Lead-Carbon Batteries - Lead-acid batteries remain a cost-effective and reliable option for energy storage, particularly in applications like backup power and telecommunications [60] - Lead-carbon batteries, which combine the advantages of lead-acid and supercapacitors, are gaining traction, with China's installed capacity reaching 35.55 MW by the first half of 2024 [68] Lithium-Ion and Sodium-Ion Batteries - Lithium-ion batteries dominate the electrochemical storage market, with global shipments reaching 225 GWh in 2023, driven by demand from power storage and electric vehicles [72] - Sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a promising alternative, with advantages in cost, safety, and temperature tolerance, and are expected to see significant growth in the coming years [76] Vanadium Flow Batteries - Vanadium flow batteries offer high safety, long cycle life, and flexibility, making them suitable for grid-scale energy storage applications [80] - The technology has seen rapid growth in China, with installed capacity increasing by 338% in 2022, and further expansion expected as costs decrease and applications diversify [83]