本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 January 7, 2025 09:02 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Japan M Foundation Housing & Real Estate: Our Take on Brisk Office Market and Inflation Wave We believe that developers announcing new medium-term plans will boost expectations for improved Industry View In-Line governance and profit growth beyond inflation. We forecast focus on offices as lagging beneficiaries of inflation. We expect increasing inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy due to rising wages, and ...

January 6, 2025 05:00 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing | North America The Weekly Worldview: Our Global View After the Holiday Break M As we come back from a well deserved holiday break, we lay out our global views. Normally, our Year-Ahead Outlook is a roadmap for markets, but for 2025, it feels a bit more like a choose-your-own-adventure book (for the less familiar, these are American children's books that allow the reader to pick different narratives, and therefore different outcomes). Policy uncertainty ...

China Industrials 26 December 2024 ab 23 Foreign Bank. UBS Asesores is registered under number 30060-001-(14115)-21/06/2016 and subject to the supervision of the Mexican Banking and Securities Commission ("CNBV") exclusively regarding the rendering of (i) portfolio management services, (ii) securities investment advisory services, analysis and issuance of individual investment recommendations, and (iii) anti-money laundering and terrorism financing matters. This UBS publication or any material related there ...

From a long-term perspective, we see several factors that could support trading activity in the capital markets. Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates On the other hand, a few challenges persist and could pose risks to HKEx's revenue: 3. Geopolitical uncertainties could rise as a result of the new US administration's potential policies and tariff hikes. Our higher ADV assumptions drive our higher forecasts of trading fees and tariffs as well as clearing & settlement. Our revenue expect ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Leisure & Hotels, specifically focusing on the European and Chinese markets - **Key Companies Mentioned**: TUI, Carnival, Sodexo, IHG, Edenred, SSP Group Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China RevPAR Performance**: - Greater China's RevPAR is tracking -8% vs 2019 YTD, indicating a significant underperformance compared to Europe and the US, which are tracking at +29% and +15% respectively [1][3] - The local hotels team anticipates a sequential weakening in RevPAR, with expectations of -2% YoY RevPAR in Mainland China for the next year, and a worse outlook for Q1 2025 at -3% to -5% [3] 2. **TUI's Financial Forecast**: - TUI is expected to report FY24 revenues of €22.8 billion (+11%) and underlying EBIT of €1,286 million (+32%) [11] - The company is focusing on strong Hotel/Cruise performance and improving free cash flow (FCF) [11][12] 3. **Carnival's Q4 Expectations**: - Carnival is forecasted to have Q4 EPS of $0.09, with guidance for FY25 yields of 3-4% [21] - The company is expected to report revenues of $6.0 billion (+12%) and adjusted EBITDA of $1,199 million (+27%) [21] 4. **Sodexo's Sales Growth**: - Forecasted organic sales growth of 5.3% and revenues of €6.5 billion for Q1 [3] 5. **IHG's Market Position**: - IHG has significant exposure to the Chinese market, with 20% of its rooms located there, and is facing challenges due to persistent deflation and weak consumer fundamentals [3] Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: - Chinese hotel demand has recovered to nearly 100% of 2019 levels, driven by strong domestic leisure travel, but business and inbound travel remain weak [1] - The overall hotel industry outlook has been downgraded due to concerns over deflation and supply growth impacting room rates [3] 2. **Future Guidance**: - TUI's guidance for FY25 is expected to align with a mid-term ambition for a 7-10% EBIT CAGR, with a focus on cruise operations and improved operational efficiencies [17] - Carnival's guidance for FY25 is anticipated to reflect a cautious but optimistic outlook, with a focus on maintaining pricing power and managing costs effectively [26] 3. **Valuation Metrics**: - TUI shares are trading at 6.6x P/E and 4.4x EV/EBITDA for 2025e, which is considered inexpensive compared to pre-Covid averages [18] - Carnival's shares are currently trading at 15x FY25e P/E, above its historical average, raising concerns about high leverage and operational performance [29] 4. **Operational Challenges**: - The hotel industry is facing challenges with occupancy rates down in the low to mid single digits compared to 2019 levels, and room rates have decreased by 3% vs 2019 [1][3] 5. **Upcoming Events**: - Key upcoming reports include TUI's FY24 results on December 11 and Carnival's Q4 results towards the end of December [5][21] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the leisure and hotel industry, particularly in Europe and China.

Global Markets Strategy 02 December 2024 J P M O R G A N EM Equity ETF Flows Broad redemptions in November post US election – 29 November 2024 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | Equity Macro Research | | | | Rajiv Batra AC | | | | (65) 6882-8151 rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com Khoi Vu, CFA | | • Total EM: Net subscriptions of US$4mn. | | (65) 6882-8170 khoi.t.vu@jpmorgan.com | | • Frontier Ma ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Consumer Market**, focusing on various sectors including **cosmetics**, **sportswear**, **home appliances**, and **infant milk formula (IMF)**. The early start of the **Double 11** shopping event significantly influenced sales performance across these categories [3][4][25]. Key Highlights 1. Category Performance - **Tissue/RVC** categories showed strong performance with completion rates of **67%** and **57%** respectively, while categories like **IMF**, **skincare**, and **pet foods** lagged with completion rates of **45-50%** [3]. - **Cosmetics** sales grew by **92%** year-over-year (YoY) in October, with a **46%** completion rate compared to the same period in 2023. Including Douyin, the growth was **66%** YoY [8]. - **Home appliances** experienced significant growth, particularly in major categories like white goods and kitchen appliances, with YoY growth rates of **+97%**, **+56%**, and **over 70%** [9]. 2. Brand Performance - **Local brands** in cosmetics outperformed multinational corporations (MNCs), with **Giant Biogene** achieving a **388%** YoY growth and a completion rate of **127%**. Other local brands like **Botanee** and **Bloomage** also reported strong growth rates of **166%** and **155%** respectively [26][27]. - Among MNCs, **LG H&H** led with **252%** YoY growth, while **L'Oreal** and **Estee Lauder** reported **187%** and **164%** growth respectively [27]. 3. Infant Milk Formula (IMF) Market - The IMF category saw a **48%** YoY growth on Tmall/Taobao, with local brands like **Yili** and **Feihe** achieving **105%** and **41%** growth respectively [19][20]. - Overall, IMF sales grew by **30%** YoY in October, indicating a strong recovery from previous months [20]. 4. Sales Trends and Consumer Behavior - The early start of the **Double 11** event led to a front-loaded sales performance, with many categories experiencing higher growth rates compared to previous months [4][25]. - **Discount levels** were better than expected, contributing to a positive sales environment for sportswear and other categories [5]. 5. Challenges and Underperformance - Certain categories, particularly **supplements**, continued to struggle with a **0%** YoY growth rate on Tmall/Taobao, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [7]. - **Amore** was noted as the underperformer in the cosmetics sector, with only **8%** YoY growth, significantly below the levels seen in 2023 [27]. Additional Insights - The divergence in performance across categories suggests varying consumer preferences and market dynamics, with some brands successfully leveraging omni-channel strategies to enhance sales [6]. - The completion rates provide a clearer picture of sales performance, mitigating the effects of base year comparisons and timing differences associated with the Double 11 event [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the performance trends, brand dynamics, and market challenges within the China consumer sector.

V i e w p o i n t | 28 Oct 2024 08:37:14 ET │ 22 pages Brazil Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Data Drilling: Our October 2024 E&P Monthly Report CITI'S TAKE During September Brazil produced 4,539kboed of O&G (+4.5%MoM, - 2.7%YoY), oil accounted for 3,470kbpd, up +3.9% MoM (+129.9kbpd) and natural gas accounted for 169.9mn m3/d, +6.4% MoM (+10.2mn m3/d). Petrobras remained far ahead as the top producer with 63.7% of total oil equivalent production. Production this month was affected by apparent maintena ...

To Answer the Question of Why I Invest in China I invest in China because... ...I can't diversify as well as I'd like to without investing in China. For example, China and the US are the only dominant powers in the most important industries and how these two nations are with each other will shape the world. ...I have invested throughout many cycles in many countries and learned the adage "the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets." In other words, the time to buy is when everyone hates the marke ...

Economic and Debt Challenges - China is facing significant debt and economic problems, with falling real estate prices, equity and asset prices, employment, and employee compensation contributing to a dour economic mood[26] - The average retirement age in China is 53, while the average age of death is 84, creating a 31-year gap where retirees must be supported, adding financial strain to families and the government[27] - The leadership needs to engineer a "beautiful deleveraging" to balance deflationary debt reduction with inflationary monetary easing, or risk a Japanese-style "lost decade"[10] Internal Wealth and Political Dynamics - The internal wealth gap has intensified, leading to government actions perceived as anti-capitalist, such as common prosperity initiatives and arbitrary wealth redistribution, which are fear-inducing for capitalist elites[28] - Xi Jinping's leadership has shifted towards stricter control and autocratic policies, with purges and crackdowns on corruption, particularly in the military, creating a more oppressive environment[28][29] Geopolitical and Trade Tensions - The US-China great-power conflict is causing foreign and domestic investors to diversify or leave China, with trade and capital flows becoming a geopolitical cat-and-mouse game[30] - China's economic model, based on increasing global manufacturing share, is under threat due to rising tariffs and protectionism, particularly in industries like electric vehicles, batteries, and green energy[30] Technological and Environmental Pressures - Technology development is a critical battleground, with China and the US competing in areas like AI, quantum computing, and clean energy, with significant geopolitical and economic implications[15] - Climate-related issues, including droughts, floods, and pandemics, are top-of-mind threats that will likely impose significant costs and hardships on China[31]