October 18, 2024 09:20 AM GMT Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ Tetsuya Wadaki Equity Analyst Tetsuya.Wadaki@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8890 M Update Investor Presentation | Japan Semiconductor Production Equipment: Doko Shuzai Supplement: Disco (6146) Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. In ...

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J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 18 October 2024 China housing Lingering time inconsistency issues need a timely comprehensive package, recent efforts still marginal House price correction widened further, along with broad-based sluggishness in major housing activity indicators. The NBS 70 cities' new home prices were down 6.1%oya or 0.7%m/m nsa in September (-5.7%oya or 0.7%m/m nsa in August), and secondary home prices were down 9.0%oya or 0.9%m/m nsa (vs. -8.6%oya or 0.9%m/m nsa in August). ...

Tencent (0700) Overweight 0700.HK, 700 HK Identifying Tencent's alpha amidst the beta trade▲ Price (10 Oct 24): HK$438.80 Price Target (Dec-25): HK$520.00 Prior (Dec-24): HK$480.00 Tencent's share price underperformed ecommerce names in the recent round of the market rally (Tencent flat vs. Alibaba +2%, PDD +5% and JD +8% in the past two weeks) as investors added exposure to a potential macro recovery theme, in our view. Admittedly, Tencent's earnings are driven more by non-cyclical operations (i.e. digital ...

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October 13, 2024 11:07 PM GMT M Foundation Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific China's Fiscal Package: Part 1 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Zhipeng Cai Economist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 Trillion-dollar Fiscal Pivot: Part 1 - Debt Restructuring Begins (13 October 2024) Launching the "Sentiment Tracker" (7 October 2024) For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. ...

October 13, 2024 03:10 AM GMT M Update HK/China Transportation & Infrastructure | Asia Pacific Week in Review (Issue 41-24) Week in review: 3Q24 prelims from CSH and OOIL; J&T 3Q24 operation update; 2024 National Holiday express and pax volume; investor presentation on China Express Tech Diffusion 3Q24 Prelims from CSH and OOIL: CSH's 3Q24 recurring net profit was Rmb21.2bn, +288.57% YoY, largely in line with our expectations. Implied 3Q24 minority interest was Rmb2.8bn, +250% YoY, vs. Rmb1.5bn in 2Q24, tha ...

Europe Equity Research 14 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Metal Inventories in China China physical inventory trends during 3 weeks of stimulus: largest increase in weekly steel output of 2024, steel rebar demand surged +33% last week | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **Chinese economy** and the **local government debt restructuring** initiative led by the central government to alleviate fiscal austerity and restore confidence in the economy [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Debt Restructuring Initiative**: - The Chinese government is initiating a significant local government debt restructuring program estimated at **Rmb6 trillion** or more over multiple years, aimed at alleviating the burden of **Rmb70-80 trillion** in informal local debt [3][4]. - This restructuring is seen as a critical step to break the cycle of fiscal austerity and restore private sector confidence, which has been undermined by local governments' financial struggles [5][6]. 2. **Policy Focus Areas**: - **Local Debt Resolution**: A significant one-time debt swap to resolve implicit local debt, marking the largest move of its kind in recent years [3]. - **Housing Inventory Purchase**: The government will use bonds to buy back housing inventory, which is expected to stabilize the housing market [3]. - **SOE Bank Recapitalization**: Special Treasury Bonds will be issued to recapitalize major banks, facilitating risk management [3]. - **Social Benefits**: Additional allowances for students and support for financially struggling elderly individuals are planned [3]. 3. **Fiscal Expectations**: - A supplementary fiscal package of **Rmb2 trillion** is expected in the near term for local debt resolution and bank recapitalization [7]. - For 2025, a fiscal package of **Rmb2-3 trillion** is anticipated to support debt swaps and housing inventory clearance, potentially leading to a **1-2 percentage point** expansion in the fiscal deficit [7]. 4. **Consumption Support**: - A large-scale consumption-focused package (e.g., **Rmb10 trillion** over two years) is deemed unlikely, with expectations for gradual and modest consumption stimulus [8]. 5. **Investor Reactions**: - Onshore investors view the restructuring of local government and housing debt as a significant move, with expectations that it will rekindle government-related business spending, particularly in lower-tier cities [9]. Other Important Insights - The central government's balance sheet is expected to play a larger role in debt restructuring and housing market stabilization, although the pace of consumption support and social welfare spending is anticipated to remain gradual [4][6]. - The conference highlighted the importance of restoring stability in the regulatory environment to improve business expectations and stimulate future demand [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of the local government debt restructuring initiative and its expected impact on the Chinese economy.