Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 PBF Energy Inc Adjusting Estimates and Price Target Adjusting estimates We are adjusting our estimates to reflect weaker cracks environment. We lower 2024 to reflect weaker earnings vs. our expectations. West Coast cracks are trending below expectations (despite closure of Rodeo) and this is driving negative revisions. We lower 2024 EPS to $1.06 from $4.04. We lower 2025 EPS to $3.26 from $5.52. Call takeaways ● Turnaround in both East Coast and Mid-Con lasted ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 First Read Synthomer PLC 1H24 results - 5% EBITDA miss, with outlook unchanged Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Synthomer reported 1H24 adjusted EBITDA of £76m, up 4% y/y but 5% below Bloomberg consensus at £80m (UBSe at £77m). Sales came in at £1,051m, up 0.4% y/y and 1% above consensus of £1,041m, driven by price/mix down 7%, volumes up 11% and an FX headwind of 3% y/y. 1H24 adjusted EPS was 1.3p, compared to a loss per share of 8.0p in 1H2 ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Netwealth Group Limited UBS Snapshot: FY24 Result ONE LINER Earnings and div miss due to revenue margins. FY25 guidance is for flows to remain strong but cost growth to accelerate. KEY NUMBERS (1) Reported NPAT $83.4m vs UBSe $88.1m (Cons $85.6m); (2) Total revenue +18.9% to $255.2m vs UBSe $260.4m (Cons $258.4m); (3) EBITDA $124.7m vs UBSe $129.8m (Cons. $127.2m); (4) Underlying EPS 33.8cps vs UBSe 36.1cps (Cons. 35.0cps); (5) Final DPS 14.0cps ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Challenger Financial Services Group with a 12-month price target of A$8.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of A$6.88 [2][9]. Core Insights - Earnings and dividends exceeded expectations due to improved core margins and reduced costs, leading to a positive market reaction despite some concerns regarding capital position [6]. - Normalised NPBT increased by 17% to A$608 million, surpassing both UBS estimates and consensus [3]. - The Life EBIT rose by 17% to A$634 million, also above consensus expectations, reflecting strong operational performance [4]. Financial Performance - Normalised NPAT was reported at A$417 million, aligning with UBS estimates and consensus [3]. - Final dividend per share (DPS) was set at 13.5 cents, slightly above UBS and consensus estimates [3]. - Life annuity sales decreased by 6% to A$5.19 billion, which was above UBS estimates [4]. Guidance and Projections - For FY25, the guidance for normalised NPBT is set between A$640 million and A$700 million, with consensus at A$669 million [5]. - The effective tax rate is projected at 31.3%, with a cost-to-income ratio expected to improve to 32-34% [5]. - The report anticipates a normalised pre-tax ROE target of RBA cash rate +12%, currently at 11.2% post-tax [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Challenger is recognized as the dominant annuity provider in the Australian market, with a diversified financial services portfolio [12]. - The report highlights a strong balance sheet with a PCA ratio of 1.67x, indicating improved capital adequacy [4][6]. - Forecasts suggest a price appreciation of 16.3% and a dividend yield of 4.0%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 20.3% [11].

First Read Temple & Webster Group UBS SnapShot: FY24 Results ONE LINER: EBITDA beat, sales inline, trading update +26% y/y OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE: FY25 commenced strongly with revenue first 6wks up 26% year on year. FY25 will continue to include an additional 2-3% of revenue invested into brand marketing across brand and performance channels. FY25 EBITDA mgn inc marketing investment 1-3%. EBITDA margins to incrementally build from FY26 towards LT BAU EBITDA margin of +15%. Current $30m on-market buyback will ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Seek UBS SnapShot: 2H24 Result ONE LINER Top line delivered in 2H but higher D&A and interest drag on NPAT. FY25e outlook suggests yield stronger, and assuming worse than expected ANZ vols 2H24 KEY NUMBERS Rev $563m (UBSe $563m, VA cons $537m); EBITDA $230m (UBSe $235m, cons. $238m); Adjusted NPAT $64m (UBSe $74m, cons. $80m); Capex -$73m (UBSe $-88m, cons -$89m); Div 16cps (UBSe 15cps, cons. 16cps) 2H24 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS 1. ANZ Rev -7% y/y to $4 ...

ab 12 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab India Economic Comment Headline CPI inflation softens on base effect Headline CPI inflation eases to 3.5% in July, core inflation at 3.4% Headline CPI inflation eased to a five-year low of 3.5% YoY in July (vs. 5.1%YoY in the previous month), largely due to base effect despite a pick-up in sequential momentum in food prices (largely seasonal) and hike in telecom tariffs by telcos (15bps contribution). This inflation print was lower than consensus expectatio ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a 12-month price target of A$2.58, while the current price is A$2.25 [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported FY24 results that were 2% below UBS estimates due to lower net property income (NPI) and increased property expenses. FY25 guidance for funds from operations per unit (FFOpu) is also 3% below consensus [2][6]. - Key financial metrics include FFO of $178.4 million, which is lower than the expected $181.3 million, and a decrease in FFOpu to 15.4 cents, down 9% compared to the previous corresponding period [3][5]. - The company is experiencing growth in supermarket sales, with a moving annual total (MAT) increase of 3.0% and a 1.1% increase in discount department stores (DDS) [4]. Summary by Sections Key Numbers - FFO: $178.4 million vs. UBS estimate of $181.3 million; FFOpu: 15.4 cents (-9% vs. pcp) vs. UBS estimate of 15.6 cents [3]. - Gross rents increased to $880 per square meter from $856 per square meter [4]. - Specialty vacancy rate improved to 4.7% from 4.9% [4]. Result Highlights - Supermarkets MAT growth of 3.0% and DDS growth of 1.1% [4]. - Leasing spreads for renewals increased by 5.2% [4]. - The company’s net tangible assets (NTA) decreased to $2.42 from $2.45 [4]. Valuation - The valuation method used is a blended NAV SOTP/12-month forward DCF analysis, resulting in a price target of A$2.58 [5][13]. - The forecast price appreciation is 14.7%, with a forecast dividend yield of 6.4%, leading to a total forecast stock return of 21.1% [11]

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Morning Expresso – Australasia Tuesday, 13 August 2024 Australasia Marcus Curley Analyst marcus.curley@ubs.com +64-9-913 4750 Today's Notes INDUSTRIALS Carsales.com.au - Good outlook into FY25e JB Hi-Fi - FY24 Result: JB Aust EBIT margin 'base' raised Aurizon - FY24 result: Capital flexibility preserved FINANCIALS Australian Banks - Capital returns are possibly mispriced RESOURCES Alcoa Corporation - Initiate coverage on AAI.AU Buy rated A$58/sh Be ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for CSL, with a price target of A$340.00, while the current price is A$308.93 [9][22]. Core Insights - The financial results for CSL are largely in line with expectations, with a slight miss in Behring's core gross margin by approximately 60 basis points, which may raise investor concerns [2][6]. - Revenue for FY24 is reported at $14,800 million, reflecting an 11% increase, which aligns with consensus estimates [3][4]. - The underlying gross margin stands at 54.1%, exceeding consensus by 65 basis points [3]. - NPATA is reported at $2,907 million, also an 11% increase, but 5% below consensus expectations [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Behring's revenue is reported at $10,608 million, a 14% increase, consistent with consensus [4]. - Vifor's revenue is $2,064 million, in line with consensus, with an underlying gross margin of 68.5%, surpassing consensus by 249 basis points [4]. - Seqirus generated revenue of $2,128 million, a 5% increase, which is 2% above consensus, with an underlying gross margin of 61.9%, exceeding consensus by 147 basis points [4]. Outlook and Guidance - For FY25, CSL provides revenue growth guidance of 5-7% (constant currency) and NPATA growth guidance of 10-13% (constant currency) [5][6]. - The NPATA growth guidance aligns with expectations, although consensus is slightly more optimistic [6]. Valuation - The valuation of CSL shares is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with no changes made to estimates following the report [7].