Powered by UBS Evidence Lab ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab YES | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|--------------|---------------------------------------|--------------|-------- ...

First Read ISS A/S H1 profits in-line, but with some mixed details Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Q2 organic growth and H1 profits were broadly in-line with expectations, with guidance items reaffirmed and a modest buyback increase. Some of the details (e.g. outlook for net new contracts being lowered for FY'24e, despite some recent wins) were more mixed. Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results? A: Organic growth of +5.8% y/y in Q2'24 was in-line with consensus and similar ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) with a 12-month price target adjusted to US$70.00 from the previous US$73.00 [1]. Core Insights - HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) provided guidance for 3Q24 throughput of 570-600 mb/d, accounting for turnarounds at the Parco and El Dorado refineries [1]. - The company has signed contracts to convert 150 stores to its branded wholesale sites, expecting growth of approximately 10% over the next 6 to 12 months [1]. - The renewable diesel business has become profitable in a low-margin environment, with DINO increasing utilization of pretreatment units and lowering operating costs [1]. - The Lubes business is projected to run at an EBITDA of US$350 million, with an EBITDA margin of 12-13% [1]. - DINO anticipates widening Canadian crude differentials in the next 12-24 months, with spot WTI-WCS already widening to US$15/bbl [1]. - The company is on track to exceed a 50% payout ratio as it continues to reward shareholders [1]. - Adjusted estimates reflect a decrease in EPS for 2024E to US$4.43 from US$5.18 and for 2025E to US$6.56 from US$7.11 [1]. Financial Summary - Revenues are projected to be US$32,031 million for 2024E, with a slight decrease to US$31,808 million in 2025E [2]. - EBITDA is expected to decline to US$1,970 million in 2024E, with a recovery to US$2,329 million in 2025E [2]. - Net earnings are forecasted at US$842 million for 2024E, increasing to US$1,160 million in 2025E [2]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be US$4.43 for 2024E, with a rise to US$6.56 in 2025E [2]. - The company’s net debt is projected to be US$1,866 million for 2024E, decreasing to US$1,739 million in 2025E [2].

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab US Asset Managers IVZ and BLK stand alone with inflows in a choppy but upwardly trending tape Broad beta tailwinds partially offset by outflows, ex. IVZ & BLK July AUM reports reflected mixed markets (Nasdaq down 0.8% and S&P 500 up 1.1% in July), but total AUM higher across the board. Highlights: 1. IVZ reported robust inflows in July (+$10.8bn), primarily in equities (+$7.4bn) and fixed income (+$2.2bn). This has become a positive trend for the firm with ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 PBF Energy Inc Adjusting Estimates and Price Target Adjusting estimates We are adjusting our estimates to reflect weaker cracks environment. We lower 2024 to reflect weaker earnings vs. our expectations. West Coast cracks are trending below expectations (despite closure of Rodeo) and this is driving negative revisions. We lower 2024 EPS to $1.06 from $4.04. We lower 2025 EPS to $3.26 from $5.52. Call takeaways ● Turnaround in both East Coast and Mid-Con lasted ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 First Read Synthomer PLC 1H24 results - 5% EBITDA miss, with outlook unchanged Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Synthomer reported 1H24 adjusted EBITDA of £76m, up 4% y/y but 5% below Bloomberg consensus at £80m (UBSe at £77m). Sales came in at £1,051m, up 0.4% y/y and 1% above consensus of £1,041m, driven by price/mix down 7%, volumes up 11% and an FX headwind of 3% y/y. 1H24 adjusted EPS was 1.3p, compared to a loss per share of 8.0p in 1H2 ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Netwealth Group Limited UBS Snapshot: FY24 Result ONE LINER Earnings and div miss due to revenue margins. FY25 guidance is for flows to remain strong but cost growth to accelerate. KEY NUMBERS (1) Reported NPAT $83.4m vs UBSe $88.1m (Cons $85.6m); (2) Total revenue +18.9% to $255.2m vs UBSe $260.4m (Cons $258.4m); (3) EBITDA $124.7m vs UBSe $129.8m (Cons. $127.2m); (4) Underlying EPS 33.8cps vs UBSe 36.1cps (Cons. 35.0cps); (5) Final DPS 14.0cps ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Challenger Financial Services Group with a 12-month price target of A$8.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of A$6.88 [2][9]. Core Insights - Earnings and dividends exceeded expectations due to improved core margins and reduced costs, leading to a positive market reaction despite some concerns regarding capital position [6]. - Normalised NPBT increased by 17% to A$608 million, surpassing both UBS estimates and consensus [3]. - The Life EBIT rose by 17% to A$634 million, also above consensus expectations, reflecting strong operational performance [4]. Financial Performance - Normalised NPAT was reported at A$417 million, aligning with UBS estimates and consensus [3]. - Final dividend per share (DPS) was set at 13.5 cents, slightly above UBS and consensus estimates [3]. - Life annuity sales decreased by 6% to A$5.19 billion, which was above UBS estimates [4]. Guidance and Projections - For FY25, the guidance for normalised NPBT is set between A$640 million and A$700 million, with consensus at A$669 million [5]. - The effective tax rate is projected at 31.3%, with a cost-to-income ratio expected to improve to 32-34% [5]. - The report anticipates a normalised pre-tax ROE target of RBA cash rate +12%, currently at 11.2% post-tax [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Challenger is recognized as the dominant annuity provider in the Australian market, with a diversified financial services portfolio [12]. - The report highlights a strong balance sheet with a PCA ratio of 1.67x, indicating improved capital adequacy [4][6]. - Forecasts suggest a price appreciation of 16.3% and a dividend yield of 4.0%, leading to an overall forecast stock return of 20.3% [11].

First Read Temple & Webster Group UBS SnapShot: FY24 Results ONE LINER: EBITDA beat, sales inline, trading update +26% y/y OUTLOOK AND GUIDANCE: FY25 commenced strongly with revenue first 6wks up 26% year on year. FY25 will continue to include an additional 2-3% of revenue invested into brand marketing across brand and performance channels. FY25 EBITDA mgn inc marketing investment 1-3%. EBITDA margins to incrementally build from FY26 towards LT BAU EBITDA margin of +15%. Current $30m on-market buyback will ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Seek UBS SnapShot: 2H24 Result ONE LINER Top line delivered in 2H but higher D&A and interest drag on NPAT. FY25e outlook suggests yield stronger, and assuming worse than expected ANZ vols 2H24 KEY NUMBERS Rev $563m (UBSe $563m, VA cons $537m); EBITDA $230m (UBSe $235m, cons. $238m); Adjusted NPAT $64m (UBSe $74m, cons. $80m); Capex -$73m (UBSe $-88m, cons -$89m); Div 16cps (UBSe 15cps, cons. 16cps) 2H24 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS 1. ANZ Rev -7% y/y to $4 ...