ab 15 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Central Retail Corporation Q224: Results were in line as fashion and food segments led the growth How did the results compare vs expectations? Central Retail Corporation reported Q224 core net profit of Bt1,613m (-36% QoQ, -6% YoY), in line with UBSe and consensus. CRC's top line of Bt56,242m (-7% QoQ, +5% YoY) and its total gross margin of 28.7% (+111bps QoQ, +7bps YoY) were also in line. SG&A-to-total revenue increased by 148bps QoQ to 28.2%, b ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read BTS Group Q125: Deeper net loss vs expectations How did the results compare vs expectations? BTS reported its pre-ex net loss of Bt382m, widening from a core net loss of Bt127m in Q124, excluding the impact of one-time impairment of its subsidiary investment reported in Q124. This result missed our estimate of a Bt170m net loss for the quarter. We attribute the miss vs our estimate to a weaker EBITDA contribution from the MIX (Media and digital s ...

ab 15 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Qifu Technology A clean beat underpinned by robust asset quality Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? QFIN reported Q224 non-GAAP net income of Rmb1,417m, +17% QoQ and beat company guidance by 13%. Despite muted top-line growth (flattish QoQ), operating profit showed much stronger momentum (+46% QoQ), primarily driven by a sizable write-back of past prudent provisions (Rmb480m) after asset quality showed continued improvement YTD. With ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ayala Corporation with a 12-month price target of P850.00 [7][5]. Core Insights - Ayala Corporation reported a core net profit of P12.5 billion for Q224, reflecting a 6% quarter-over-quarter and 12% year-over-year increase, leading to a total of P24.3 billion for H124, which is an 18% year-over-year growth [2][3]. - The growth was primarily driven by strong performances from its core subsidiaries, including BPI (+22%), ALI (+15%), GLO (+18%), and ACEN (+21%) [2][3]. - The residential property and power generation segments showed significant improvement, with ALI's residential revenue up 40% year-over-year in H124 and ACEN's generation output expanding 42% year-over-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Ayala Corporation's revenues for H124 reached P202.2 billion, with net earnings of P28.3 billion and an EPS of P45.43 for the year ending 2022 [6]. - The company expects continued strong trends in its core businesses, particularly in residential and renewable energy sectors [4][3]. Business Outlook - ALI has adjusted its 2024 launch target to P85 billion from P115 billion to focus on reducing inventory levels [4]. - ACEN anticipates strong performance for the remainder of the year, although H2 is typically weaker due to seasonal factors [4]. Valuation and Market Metrics - The report highlights a forecast price appreciation of 37.5% and a forecast stock return of 38.6% [9]. - Ayala Corporation's market capitalization is noted at P383 billion (approximately US$6.72 billion) with a free float of 40% [7]. Key Business Segments - The banking segment (BPI) is benefiting from higher net interest margins and above-industry loan growth, while the real estate segment (ALI) is experiencing robust residential revenue growth [2][3]. - The telecommunications segment (GLO) is seeing improved earnings driven by Mynt, and ACEN is expanding its renewable energy capacity significantly [2][3].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Srisawad Corporation Q224A: profit beat on asset quality improvement Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Net profit of Bt1.3bn (+14% yoy, +3% qoq) was in line with BBGe of Bt1.3bn and beat UBSe of Bt1.14bn by 14%. The earnings beat came from lower-than-expected loss on car repossession and provision expense. Overall result shows that asset quality control began to shore up profit growth. H124 profit accounts 48-50% of BBG/UBS full ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Neutral" to Osotspa PCL with a price target of Bt21.00, while the current price is Bt23.70 [7][22]. Core Insights - Osotspa reported a Q224 net profit of Bt604 million, which is a 28% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 10% increase year-on-year. The core net profit, excluding one-off impairments, was Bt923 million, reflecting an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 68% increase year-on-year [2][9]. - The company's top line was driven by beverage sales of Bt6,103 million, which remained flat quarter-on-quarter but increased by 11% year-on-year. International sales grew by 33% year-on-year, primarily from Myanmar, while domestic sales normalized to a 4% year-on-year growth [3][9]. - The gross margin expanded to 38.2%, up 171 basis points quarter-on-quarter and 418 basis points year-on-year, attributed to favorable raw material costs, efficiency gains, and volume recovery [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q224 revenue from sales was Bt7,345 million, a 1.2% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 9.5% increase year-on-year. The gross profit was Bt2,804 million, showing a 5.9% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 22.9% increase year-on-year [9]. - Selling expenses decreased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter, while administrative expenses increased by 6.0% quarter-on-quarter [9]. Market Position and Outlook - Osotspa maintained a market share of 46.4% in the energy drink segment, with a 2% year-on-year growth in sales. The functional drink segment saw a 20% year-on-year growth, with C-Vitt achieving a record market share of 74.4% in the Vitamin C category [3][4]. - The company expects growth momentum to slow in H224 due to intensified competition in the domestic energy market and the low season in Myanmar [4]. Valuation Metrics - Osotspa is currently trading at a 2024E PE of 29x, which is above the consumer sector average of 22x. The report indicates that the market has priced in the company's improved growth profile, but risks remain in H2 due to higher competition and lower international sales [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for Airports of Thailand (AOT) with a 12-month price target of Bt54.00, while the current price is Bt55.75 [7][21]. Core Insights - AOT reported a Q324 pre-tax net profit of Bt4.6 billion, representing a 42% year-over-year increase but a 21% decrease quarter-over-quarter. This result was in line with consensus estimates and 7% above the report's estimates [2][3]. - Aeronautical revenue increased by 29%, driven by a 34% year-over-year rise in departure passenger service charge (PSC) revenue, as tourist volume grew by 16% year-over-year. Concession revenue surged by 39% year-over-year, primarily due to higher duty-free minimum guarantee revenue [3][9]. - The EBITDA margin expanded by 2 percentage points year-over-year to 56%, attributed to improved operating leverage and a decline in utility costs [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q324 revenue was Bt16.4 billion, a 27% increase year-over-year, while the operating cost was Bt7.2 billion, up 22% year-over-year. The EBITDA for Q324 was Bt9.2 billion, reflecting a 31% increase year-over-year [9]. - The net profit for Q324 was reported at Bt4.6 billion, a 45% increase from the previous year, with an adjusted net profit of Bt4.6 billion, marking a 42% year-over-year increase [9]. Revenue Breakdown - Aeronautical revenue for Q324 was Bt7.8 billion, a 29% increase year-over-year, while concession revenue reached Bt5.8 billion, a 39% increase year-over-year [9]. - The passenger service charge revenue was Bt6.2 billion, up 34% year-over-year, indicating strong recovery in passenger traffic [9]. Outlook and Guidance - No new guidance was provided by the company, with an analyst meeting scheduled for 15 August to discuss the outlook and updates on transit PSC adoption and expansion plans [4]. Valuation and Market Metrics - The report indicates that AOT lacks re-rating catalysts beyond short-term trading sentiment, maintaining a DCF-based price target of Bt54.00 [5][7]. - The forecasted stock return is -1.7%, with a forecast dividend yield of 1.4% [10]. Company Overview - Airports of Thailand operates six major airports in Thailand, handling about 90% of the country's air traffic and servicing over 130 scheduled airlines. The revenue split is approximately 57% aeronautical and 43% non-aeronautical [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wilmar International with a 12-month price target of S$4.20, down from a previous target of S$4.60 [6][5]. Core Insights - Management expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, anticipating improvements in milling margins and plantation profits due to lower raw material prices and reduced fertilizer costs [2][3]. - The impact of the recent El Niño has led to a 6% decline in group FFB production in the first half, prompting a downward revision of FY24 production growth expectations to a low single-digit decline (<5%) [3]. - Wilmar's integrated business model and diverse product range are seen as competitive advantages, allowing the company to maintain production cost competitiveness and relevance to consumers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24-26E earnings estimates have been reduced by 5-8% due to lower expectations for China's recovery, with net earnings projected at US$1.76 billion for FY24, down from previous estimates [5][7]. - The company is trading at a multi-year low valuation of 7.7x forward P/E and 0.7x P/B, indicating significant undervaluation [5]. Production and Market Conditions - The report notes that production is expected to recover in the second half of the year, with a peak anticipated in the fourth quarter [3]. - Consumer downtrading trends in China are acknowledged, but management remains confident in the company's ability to adapt and maintain stable sales volumes [4]. Valuation Metrics - The forecast price appreciation is estimated at 35.9%, with a forecast dividend yield of 4.1%, leading to a total forecast stock return of 40.0% [11]. - The market capitalization of Wilmar International is reported at S$19.4 billion (approximately US$14.7 billion) [6].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Thai Oil Q224 meeting feedback and upcoming UBShosted expert call Thai Oil (TOP) hosted its Q224 analyst meeting on 14 August. Overall, there were no material new developments to alter our views in the near term. Please see some of key highlights below. Also, UBS is hosting an Expert Call: Refining margin outlook and clean fuel project's (CFP) start-up discussion on 22 August at 3pm Bangkok time. Join our discussion for an expert view from Kpler, one of the ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Medtronic PLC Diabetes Turnaround Sustainable, Clearing Path to MSD Sales Growth; U/G to Neutral CGM Partnership Potentially Transformative for MDT Diabetes We are upgrading MDT to Neutral from Sell as we now have higher conviction that the recent Diabetes turnaround is sustainable. With Diabetes representing just under 10% of MDT's sales but also one of MDT's higher growth end markets, this business is critical to MDT's top-line growth trajectory. With thi ...