ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Cardinal Health Inc Wrap: Positive Financial and Strategic Updates To Start FY25; Upping PT to $125 (from $120) UBS View: Near-Term Optics Challenged By Optum Fallout But Don't Lose Sight of Big Picture The most important takeaways from the F4Q print are (1) manageable fallout from the Optum loss, (2) the underappreciated earnings power of new contract wins and existing business expansion, and (3) solid cash flow generation that provides relative operationa ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Amazon (AMZN) with a price target of $220, a Buy rating on Meta (META) with a price target of $635, and a Neutral rating on Alphabet (GOOGL) with a price target of $204 [3][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding the modeling of depreciation expenses in relation to rising capital expenditures for major internet companies, suggesting that depreciation should increase at a faster rate than revenue due to significant capital investments [5][6]. - It is anticipated that quarterly earnings reports over the next 6-12 months will prompt analysts to adjust their depreciation expense forecasts, particularly for Meta, which is expected to provide clearer guidance in its upcoming earnings report [2][5]. - The potential underestimation of depreciation expenses could lead to significant impacts on earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026, with Meta facing the largest potential delta [1][12]. Summary by Company Amazon (AMZN) - Capital expenditures for Amazon are projected to rise from $35 billion in 2024 to approximately $51 billion in 2025, leading to a 10% and 15% increase in depreciation expenses for 2025 and 2026 respectively [7]. - The potential delta in depreciation expenses could result in an overstatement of operating income by 4% and 6% for 2025 and 2026 [7][12]. Alphabet (GOOGL) - Alphabet's capital expenditures are expected to increase by 12.7% in 2025 and 31.7% in 2026, with corresponding increases in depreciation expenses of 10.8% and 13.8% [8][10]. - If depreciation forecasts were tied to revenue, the potential underestimation could lead to overstated EPS by 1% for both 2025 and 2026 [10]. Meta (META) - Meta's capital expenditures are projected to increase by 21.5% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, resulting in a significant increase in depreciation expenses of 11% and 22% [12]. - The potential underestimation of depreciation could lead to an overstatement of EPS by 7% and 14% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with the company expected to provide clearer guidance in its 4Q24 earnings report [12][11].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab North American Oil & Gas The Gas Digest - Post-2Q Gas Hedging Review Equities Americas Energy Gas Hedges Falling In 2025 With Rising Strip Following 2Q24 earnings season, we reviewed the latest gas hedge disclosures across our coverage group, focusing on the gas-focused E&Ps. On average, the gas-focused E&Ps have hedged 47%/31% of FY24/25 gas volumes, with the decline in 2025 reflecting operators leaving more exposure to an expected rising price environment ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Acumen Pharmaceuticals Inc with a 12-month price target (PT) lowered to $6 from $14 [4][8]. Core Insights - The investment thesis has been updated following the 2Q24 earnings report, with a focus on the execution of Phase 2 (P2) trials for sabirnetug (ACU193) as a key driver for stock performance [2][6]. - The overall sentiment in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) market remains low, influenced by regulatory setbacks and slow commercial uptake of competing products [3][9]. - Despite the challenges, the report highlights that Acumen Pharmaceuticals has sufficient cash to fund operations into the first half of 2027, with P2 trial enrollment exceeding expectations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - 12-month rating: Buy - 12-month price target: $6.00 (previously $14.00) [4]. Financial Performance - Current stock price as of August 14, 2024: $2.46 - Market capitalization: $0.14 billion - Expected revenues for 12/24E: $21 million [5]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The AD market is sizable but has seen a decline in clinical trials and investigational drugs in 2024 compared to 2023 [3]. - Regulatory risks have increased following the EMA refusal of Leqembi, impacting overall market sentiment [3][9]. Company-Specific Developments - Acumen Pharmaceuticals reported a cash position of $281.4 million, sufficient to support ongoing trials [6]. - Management noted that the P2 ALTITUDE-AD study is progressing faster than expected, with positive feedback on the trial design [6][7]. Valuation Adjustments - Peak sales estimates for sabirnetug have been lowered from $6.8 billion to $2.4 billion due to anticipated lower commercial uptake [9][10]. - The probability of success (PoS) for sabirnetug has been increased from 15% to 20% based on evolving clinical data [9][10].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Payments, Processors, & FinTech NFC Secure Element within their own apps Apple announces broader developer access to Equities Americas Diversified Technology Services Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA Analyst timothy.chiodo@ubs.com +1-415-352 4500 Nik Cremo Analyst nik.cremo@ubs.com +1-415-352 6025 Chris Zhang, CFA Analyst chris.zhang@ubs.com +1-212-713 4911 Dylan Wright Analyst dylan.wright@ubs.com +1-212-713 3269 Jing Zhang Associate Analyst jing.zhang1@u ...

First Read US Weekly RevPAR Update Slightly Better RevPAR This Week Driven by Business Travel Weekly RevPAR up +2% YOY US Weekly RevPAR was up +2% YOY for August 4 - August 10 week, above last week's up +1%, with ADR up +140bps and occupancy up +40bps. ADR up +140bps was above last week's +60bps. Occupancy of up +40bps was slightly below last week's +50bps. RevPAR was up +11% vs. '19 per our calculations, broadly in line with last week's +11.5%. We estimate that ADR was up +20% vs. '19 (last week up +20%) a ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Cruise Lines Rehash - August 14, 2024 Equities Americas Leisure Goods & Services Robin M. Farley Analyst robin.farley@ubs.com +1-212-713 2060 Arpine Kocharyan Analyst arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com +1-212-713 2086 Alex Kivali Associate Analyst alex.kivali@ubs.com +1-212-713 3945 Alexia Tsimikas Associate Analyst alexia.tsimikas@ubs.com +1-212-713 2183 See here and here for past rehashes. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION A ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Dayforce Inc. 2024 Boost amid $500m New Buyback = Buy Non-deal road show offers a glimpse at a Special Software Story We recently hosted Dayforce CEO David Ossip, CFO Jeremy Johnson as well as multiple members from investor relations. We continue to have substantial confidence in our thesis as we believe DAY stock is poised to outperform on cloud revenue remix + improving free cash flow conversion—we believe recent underperformance is mostly due to risk-off se ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Copa and a "Neutral" rating for Azul, with price targets unchanged at $160/ADR and R$10/share respectively [4][5]. Core Insights - LATAM is negotiating to acquire up to 30 E2 jets from Embraer, expecting over 10% growth in the next three years [3]. - Tupy is expanding its contracts for heavy and light vehicles, anticipating an additional revenue of R$200 million per year starting in 2025 [3]. - Brazilian grain production is projected to decline to 298.6 million tons for the 2023/24 harvest, a decrease of 6.6% compared to the previous cycle [6][7]. Summary by Sections Copa Holdings - Copa's financial estimates have been adjusted downwards by 2% for 2024 due to weaker yields and lower capacity guidance, leading to a revised EPS of $14.9 [4]. - The company is trading at a P/E of 5x, significantly below its historical average of 11x, indicating potential undervaluation [4]. Azul - Azul's financial outlook remains challenging, with profitability and top-line estimates largely unchanged as the stock price reflects existing uncertainties [5]. - The company generated R$100 million in cash flow during the last quarter, exceeding previous estimates [5]. Tupy - Tupy has secured new contracts for manufacturing components for heavy trucks and light commercial vehicles, which will enhance its revenue streams [3]. - The new contracts are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to Tupy's estimated revenue for 2025 [3]. Brazilian Grain Production - The National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts a total grain production of 298.6 million tons for Brazil, with specific declines noted in corn production [6][7]. - Soybean production estimates remain unchanged, while corn production is expected to drop by 12.3% compared to the previous cycle [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fiverr International Ltd is Neutral with a 12-month price target of $27.00 [5][21]. Core Insights - Monthly unique visitors to Fiverr.com decreased by 17% year-over-year in July, worsening from a 15% decline in June, indicating a trend of declining web traffic [2][3]. - The guidance for Q3 revenue suggests a continued slowdown, with a projected GMV growth of -4% year-over-year, slightly worse than the -3% in Q2 [3][4]. - The price target of $27 is based on a 9X NTM EV/EBITDA multiple applied to an adjusted EBITDA estimate of $89 million for the twelve months ending June 2026 [4][11]. Summary by Sections Web Traffic Data - July saw a 17% year-over-year decline in unique visitors to Fiverr.com, compared to a 15% decline in June and a 10% decline in May [3]. - The management's Q3 revenue guidance reflects expectations of continued slower trends, with consensus modeling a GMV decline of -4% year-over-year [3]. Valuation - The price target of $27 is derived from a 9X NTM EV/EBITDA multiple, which is below Fiverr's one-year forward multiple of 11X due to anticipated GMV volatility [4][11]. - The forecasted revenue for Fiverr is expected to grow from $361 million in 2023 to $385 million in 2024, with net earnings projected to increase from $80 million to $98 million in the same period [6]. Company Overview - Fiverr is a leading freelancing platform that served 4.1 million active buyers in 2023, generating a GMV of $1.1 billion with an average spend of $278 per buyer [10].