Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Best Buy Co. Inc. A Tough Lap or A Laptop Pop? Expecting an in-line 2Q; QTD comp and category trends will be key We think the most likely case is that BBY reports 2Q EPS inline to slightly better than the consensus EPS estimate of $1.17. That said, we think the market is expecting a total enterprise comp decline slightly below initial guidance for -3% (cons. also -3.0%, our model has a -3.5%). Our checks indicate sales trends improved a bit sequentially from 1 ...

Industry Overview - Auto insurance CPI increased by 18.6% year-over-year (y/y) and 0.9% sequentially in July 2024 [1][3] - Used car prices declined by 10.9% y/y in July 2024, accelerating from -10.1% in June and -9.3% in May [4] - Auto repair cost inflation moderated to +3.4% y/y in July from +6.7% in June and +9.5% in May [4] - Medical care services inflation remained elevated at +3.3% y/y in July, consistent with June and May levels [4] Digital Advertising Trends - Digital ad spend has been trending higher, with increases observed at ALL, PGR, State Farm, and USAA, while GEICO and ROOT saw declines on a month-over-month (m/m) basis [4][17] - GEICO's digital ad spend declined y/y in June but remains up y/y for Q2 2024 [4] - PGR is increasing ad spend to drive new business, particularly in the direct distribution personal auto insurance market where GEICO is its biggest competitor [4][17] Company Performance and Outlook - Personal auto insurance margins are expected to improve throughout 2024 due to rate increases and stable to moderating loss cost inflation trends [3] - ALL and KMPR are top picks in personal lines, with expectations of improving margins and upward estimate revisions [7] - PGR is expected to gain market share in the near term by loosening underwriting restrictions faster than competitors, though growth may slow in H2 2024 due to increased competitive pressures [7] Historical Data and Trends - The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows used car prices down 4.8% y/y in July 2024, decelerating from -8.8% in June and -12.1% in May [10] - From 2008-2019, the Manheim Index grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +2.5% [10] - Hospital services inflation was +6.1% y/y in July, down from +6.9% in June and +7.2% in May [4]

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 UBS Payments Innovation Event Series: FinTech Conference Edition B2B Panel with Billtrust, Finexio, Mesh Payments, and ProfitSolv Equities Americas Diversified Technology Services Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA Analyst timothy.chiodo@ubs.com +1-415-352 4500 Nik Cremo Analyst nik.cremo@ubs.com. +1-415-352 6025 Justin Forsythe, CPA Analyst justin.forsythe@ubs.com +44-20-7567-4191 Taylor McGinnis Analyst taylor.mcginnis@ubs.com +1-212-713 1332 Chris Zhang, CFA Analyst ch ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 LatAm Oil & Gas LightHouse: PBR, EC, YPF, RRRP, RECV, RAIZ, SMTO, TTEN, ORBIA, Fuel Dist. (3x), Agri. (2x), Global Oil Integrated and Junior E&P: PBR, EC, YPF, RRRP, RECV PBR: Government participates in Petrobras' strategic decisions. EC: We published a report on Ecopetrol's 2Q24 earnings result; see "Strong output now, but challenging horizons". YPF: CEO expects Vaca Muerta Sur (VMS) oil pipeline to be the first RIGI investment. RRRP: Jive Investments holds a ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 TMT Online ObServer Reassessing the potential value of Linx to TOTVS TOTVS: Recap of Linx & Stone, and three benefits Linx could bring to TOTVS What happened: As discussed in TOTVS's 2024 conference call, the CEO Dennis Herszkowicz stated that acquiring Linx from Stone would still be strategic for TOTVS, as Linx has capabilities complementary to TOTVS' portfolio. Linx was acquired by Stone in 2020 for R$6.8bn, and TOTVS was on the dispute by then. We recall ou ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Cardinal Health Inc. Caliendo's Conference Call Commentary ● General Takeaways: Management provided additional color underlying the improved FY25 Pharma EBIT outlook and steady FY25 GMPD EBIT guidance. Within Pharma, guidance calls for y/y EBIT improvement of +1-3% with consistent generic market dynamics, a greater contribution from brand/specialty products, a modest y/y headwind from COVID vaccine, and cost optimization. On GMPD, CAH did not seem overly conce ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Victoria's Secret & Co CEO Appointment as Positive Market Likely to see 2Q EPS Upside and What happened: VSCO pre-announced above-consensus 2Q EPS... VSCO pre-announced 2Q24 results and now anticipates $0.34-$0.39 EPS, above its prior $0.05-$0.20 outlook. We note the Street has been modeling $0.16 Q2 EPS. Within its new Q2 outlook, VSCO expects net sales to be down 1-2% vs. prior down 1-3% y/y. VSCO also raised its Q2 EBIT dollar guidance to $57-$62 ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities UBS Railroads Weekly Volume +3.6% In Week 32; Western Rails Volume Growth Driven By Recent Shift of IM Volumes Americas Railroads Thomas Wadewitz Analyst thomas.wadewitz@ubs.com +1-212-713 6116 Michael Triano Analyst michael.triano@ubs.com +1-212-713 3822 Michael DiMattia Analyst michael.dimattia@ubs.com +1-617-748 5628 Volume up +3.6% y/y in Wk 32; Stacked was down -1.3% Volumes in Week 32 rose +3.6% y/y, following +3.5% growth in Week 31 and +2.9% g ...

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Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 First Read Hydro One Limited In Line. 2Q'24 Adj. EPS C$0.49 vs. C$0.49 Cons/ C$0.48 UBSe Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: H reported 2Q'24 Adjusted EPS C$0.49 versus C$0.49 consensus, C$0.48 UBSe, and C$0.44 2Q'23. Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results? A: Drivers for the quarter were driven by rates and higher peak demand offset by taxes, D&A, and asset removal costs. The company has filed for approval with the OEB to constru ...