ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Cruise Lines Rehash - August 14, 2024 Equities Americas Leisure Goods & Services Robin M. Farley Analyst robin.farley@ubs.com +1-212-713 2060 Arpine Kocharyan Analyst arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com +1-212-713 2086 Alex Kivali Associate Analyst alex.kivali@ubs.com +1-212-713 3945 Alexia Tsimikas Associate Analyst alexia.tsimikas@ubs.com +1-212-713 2183 See here and here for past rehashes. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION A ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Dayforce Inc. 2024 Boost amid $500m New Buyback = Buy Non-deal road show offers a glimpse at a Special Software Story We recently hosted Dayforce CEO David Ossip, CFO Jeremy Johnson as well as multiple members from investor relations. We continue to have substantial confidence in our thesis as we believe DAY stock is poised to outperform on cloud revenue remix + improving free cash flow conversion—we believe recent underperformance is mostly due to risk-off se ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Copa and a "Neutral" rating for Azul, with price targets unchanged at $160/ADR and R$10/share respectively [4][5]. Core Insights - LATAM is negotiating to acquire up to 30 E2 jets from Embraer, expecting over 10% growth in the next three years [3]. - Tupy is expanding its contracts for heavy and light vehicles, anticipating an additional revenue of R$200 million per year starting in 2025 [3]. - Brazilian grain production is projected to decline to 298.6 million tons for the 2023/24 harvest, a decrease of 6.6% compared to the previous cycle [6][7]. Summary by Sections Copa Holdings - Copa's financial estimates have been adjusted downwards by 2% for 2024 due to weaker yields and lower capacity guidance, leading to a revised EPS of $14.9 [4]. - The company is trading at a P/E of 5x, significantly below its historical average of 11x, indicating potential undervaluation [4]. Azul - Azul's financial outlook remains challenging, with profitability and top-line estimates largely unchanged as the stock price reflects existing uncertainties [5]. - The company generated R$100 million in cash flow during the last quarter, exceeding previous estimates [5]. Tupy - Tupy has secured new contracts for manufacturing components for heavy trucks and light commercial vehicles, which will enhance its revenue streams [3]. - The new contracts are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to Tupy's estimated revenue for 2025 [3]. Brazilian Grain Production - The National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts a total grain production of 298.6 million tons for Brazil, with specific declines noted in corn production [6][7]. - Soybean production estimates remain unchanged, while corn production is expected to drop by 12.3% compared to the previous cycle [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fiverr International Ltd is Neutral with a 12-month price target of $27.00 [5][21]. Core Insights - Monthly unique visitors to Fiverr.com decreased by 17% year-over-year in July, worsening from a 15% decline in June, indicating a trend of declining web traffic [2][3]. - The guidance for Q3 revenue suggests a continued slowdown, with a projected GMV growth of -4% year-over-year, slightly worse than the -3% in Q2 [3][4]. - The price target of $27 is based on a 9X NTM EV/EBITDA multiple applied to an adjusted EBITDA estimate of $89 million for the twelve months ending June 2026 [4][11]. Summary by Sections Web Traffic Data - July saw a 17% year-over-year decline in unique visitors to Fiverr.com, compared to a 15% decline in June and a 10% decline in May [3]. - The management's Q3 revenue guidance reflects expectations of continued slower trends, with consensus modeling a GMV decline of -4% year-over-year [3]. Valuation - The price target of $27 is derived from a 9X NTM EV/EBITDA multiple, which is below Fiverr's one-year forward multiple of 11X due to anticipated GMV volatility [4][11]. - The forecasted revenue for Fiverr is expected to grow from $361 million in 2023 to $385 million in 2024, with net earnings projected to increase from $80 million to $98 million in the same period [6]. Company Overview - Fiverr is a leading freelancing platform that served 4.1 million active buyers in 2023, generating a GMV of $1.1 billion with an average spend of $278 per buyer [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ibotta Inc with a 12-month price target of US$90, down from a previous target of US$129 [1]. Core Insights - The partnership with Instacart is expected to provide approximately 6% upside to FY25 revenue estimates, potentially catalyzing additional third-party partnerships [1]. - Despite a reduction in FY24 revenue and EBITDA estimates by 3% and 1% respectively, FY25 estimates remain unchanged [1]. - The report highlights that the third-party redemption business is still in its early stages, indicating potential for future growth [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - 12-month rating: Buy [1] - Price target: US$90 (previously US$129) [1] Financial Estimates - FY24 revenue and EBITDA estimates trimmed by 3% and 1% respectively, while FY25 estimates remain unchanged [1]. - Price on August 14, 2024: US$47.83 [1]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Instacart holds an 18% market share in e-commerce grocery, with limited overlap with existing partners [1]. - The report notes a significant year-over-year growth in merchandise, which is expected to drive revenue per redemption [1]. - The second quarter saw a net addition of 1.3 million third-party redeemers, exceeding expectations [1]. Valuation - The price target reflects an 18x FY25 EBITDA multiple, reduced from a previous 27x due to increased volatility in results [4]. - The current enterprise value is estimated at US$2,126 million, with a market cap of US$2,206 million [6]. Performance Indicators - Total revenue for FY24 is projected at US$375 million, with a growth rate of 25% expected for FY25 [1]. - The report indicates a gross margin improvement, with expectations of reaching 36% by FY25 [6].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities Americas Healthcare Kevin Caliendo Analyst kevin.caliendo@ubs.com +1-212-713 3630 AJ Rice Analyst aj.rice@ubs.com. +1-212-713 4299 Christopher Mercado, CFA Associate Analyst christopher.mercado@ubs.com +1-212-713 1430 Andrea Alfonso Analyst andrea.alfonso@ubs.com +1-212-713 1342 Dylan Finley Associate Analyst dylan.finley@ubs.com +1-212-713-4880 US Healthcare A Look at Today's Stock Movers, News & Key Data What We Thought Was Interesting Today Today w ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Best Buy Co. Inc. A Tough Lap or A Laptop Pop? Expecting an in-line 2Q; QTD comp and category trends will be key We think the most likely case is that BBY reports 2Q EPS inline to slightly better than the consensus EPS estimate of $1.17. That said, we think the market is expecting a total enterprise comp decline slightly below initial guidance for -3% (cons. also -3.0%, our model has a -3.5%). Our checks indicate sales trends improved a bit sequentially from 1 ...

Industry Overview - Auto insurance CPI increased by 18.6% year-over-year (y/y) and 0.9% sequentially in July 2024 [1][3] - Used car prices declined by 10.9% y/y in July 2024, accelerating from -10.1% in June and -9.3% in May [4] - Auto repair cost inflation moderated to +3.4% y/y in July from +6.7% in June and +9.5% in May [4] - Medical care services inflation remained elevated at +3.3% y/y in July, consistent with June and May levels [4] Digital Advertising Trends - Digital ad spend has been trending higher, with increases observed at ALL, PGR, State Farm, and USAA, while GEICO and ROOT saw declines on a month-over-month (m/m) basis [4][17] - GEICO's digital ad spend declined y/y in June but remains up y/y for Q2 2024 [4] - PGR is increasing ad spend to drive new business, particularly in the direct distribution personal auto insurance market where GEICO is its biggest competitor [4][17] Company Performance and Outlook - Personal auto insurance margins are expected to improve throughout 2024 due to rate increases and stable to moderating loss cost inflation trends [3] - ALL and KMPR are top picks in personal lines, with expectations of improving margins and upward estimate revisions [7] - PGR is expected to gain market share in the near term by loosening underwriting restrictions faster than competitors, though growth may slow in H2 2024 due to increased competitive pressures [7] Historical Data and Trends - The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows used car prices down 4.8% y/y in July 2024, decelerating from -8.8% in June and -12.1% in May [10] - From 2008-2019, the Manheim Index grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +2.5% [10] - Hospital services inflation was +6.1% y/y in July, down from +6.9% in June and +7.2% in May [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies, but it highlights the underpenetrated B2B payments opportunities relevant to investors [1][3][11]. Core Insights - The B2B payments landscape is evolving with significant growth potential, particularly in accounts payable (AP) and accounts receivable (AR) automation, which presents opportunities for companies like Billtrust, Finexio, Mesh Payments, and ProfitSolv [1][3][11]. - The revenue models of the discussed companies vary, with some relying heavily on subscription fees while others are transitioning towards a mix of payments and software revenue [1][2][3][5]. - Virtual card usage is on the rise, with companies reporting strong growth without significant pressure on fees, indicating a favorable market environment for B2B payment solutions [1][2][3][5]. Company Summaries Billtrust - Billtrust is a leader in AR automation and B2B payments, processing over $1 trillion in invoices since its inception in 2001, with a 2022 total payment volume (TPV) exceeding $100 billion, reflecting a 35% year-over-year increase [1][2][11]. - The company operates a revenue model split approximately 50/50 between payments and software, with a focus on accelerating cash flow and improving customer satisfaction [2][11]. Finexio - Finexio specializes in end-to-end AP payment solutions, primarily serving middle-market to enterprise businesses, with a current payment volume run rate of approximately $3.5 billion [3][13]. - The company has experienced around 100% revenue growth in 2023 and has a virtual card penetration rate of about 12% of its volumes [3][13]. Mesh Payments - Mesh Payments offers an all-in-one travel and expense management platform, integrating corporate cards and expense management for global enterprises [4][15]. - The company has over 1,500 enterprise customers and has recently launched new products to enhance its service offerings [4][15]. ProfitSolv - ProfitSolv provides a suite of billing, payments, and software solutions for professional services firms, with approximately 94% of its revenue coming from subscriptions [5][17]. - The company has made significant acquisitions to expand its product offerings and currently serves over 100,000 professionals across various sectors [5][17].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 LatAm Oil & Gas LightHouse: PBR, EC, YPF, RRRP, RECV, RAIZ, SMTO, TTEN, ORBIA, Fuel Dist. (3x), Agri. (2x), Global Oil Integrated and Junior E&P: PBR, EC, YPF, RRRP, RECV PBR: Government participates in Petrobras' strategic decisions. EC: We published a report on Ecopetrol's 2Q24 earnings result; see "Strong output now, but challenging horizons". YPF: CEO expects Vaca Muerta Sur (VMS) oil pipeline to be the first RIGI investment. RRRP: Jive Investments holds a ...