ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Swire Properties MSCI deletion as expected; good opportunity may have emerged What's new? In this morning, MSCI announced to delete Swire Properties (Swire) from the MSCI index and the changes will be effective at the close of 30 Aug. The deletion was in-line with our previous expectation, as its free float adjusted market cap has fallen below the required relative threshold size. UBS index team forecast US$127mn (or 69.6mn shares) will be sold o ...

ab 12 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Beach Energy Limited FY24 result: FCF must support capital returns & growth Another frustrating reserve d/grade but FCF can support growth and divs Beach Energy's (BPT) FY24 NPAT beat consensus estimates by 7%; however the financial performance was overwhelmed by another material reserve downgrade. Reserves at the new Enterprise gas field in the VIC Otways saw an 11mmboe reserve revision (-27% to the implied VIC Otway reserve), following new flow data indic ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 91% 95% 76% 93% 87% 112% 97% 130% 79% 75% 134% 49% 71% 103% 82% 70% 31% 24% JapanKorea Thailand Hong KongEUSingaporeMacaoMalaysiaVietnamAustraliaUKRussia The PhilippinesIndonesiaUAECambodiaUS Int'l flight volumes Overall int'l flights recovery vs.2019 vs.2019 (RHS) 11% 2% 2% 8% Southeast Asia East Asia Europe Oceania North America other 42% 35% Overall int'l ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Far East Horizon, citing an attractive dividend yield of 9.3% and limited downside risk to the absolute dividend per share (DPS) amount [1][6]. Core Insights - Far East Horizon's net profit for 1H24 was Rmb2,085 million, representing a 32% year-over-year decline, largely attributed to non-core items such as investment-related income and taxes [1][6]. - The company declared its first interim dividend of HK$0.25 per share, with a payout ratio of 47%, indicating a commitment to maintain the FY24 DPS at HK$0.50 despite earnings challenges [1][6]. - The easing of first-home mortgage criteria in Chengdu is expected to stimulate housing demand, allowing buyers with multiple properties to benefit from favorable mortgage policies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Far East Horizon Financial Performance - Reported a net profit of Rmb2,085 million in 1H24, down 32% YoY and 33% HoH, missing expectations [1]. - Operating profits before provisions decreased by 8% YoY, which is more aligned with a 4% contraction in average interest-earning assets [1]. - The company plans to maintain its DPS at HK$0.50 for FY24, despite the earnings decline [1]. Residential Foreclosure Market - The number of listed residential foreclosure houses increased by over 12% YoY in H124, reaching 202,000 units [2]. - Notable increases in tier-2 cities, with Zhengzhou seeing a 43% YoY rise in listed units [2]. - The average transaction price for residential foreclosure houses was Rmb9,084 per square meter, down 6.7% YoY [2]. Mortgage Policy Changes - Chengdu has eased criteria for first-home purchases, allowing buyers with a second house listed for sale to qualify for favorable mortgage terms [1][2]. - The new rules are effective from August 13, 2024, potentially boosting housing market activity [1][2]. Valuation Summary for China Banks - Various banks are rated as "Buy," "Neutral," or "Sell," with specific price targets and implied upside percentages provided [6][7]. - For instance, BOC is rated "Buy" with a price target of HK$4.20, implying a 23.5% upside [6][7]. - The average dividend yield for H-share banks is noted at 7.7%, with varying growth rates projected for EPS in 2024 and 2025 [6][7].

Hello. Thank you, operator. Thank you. And welcome to the Uber Q2 2024 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the conference over to Deepa Subramanian, Vice President, Investor Relations, Corporate Finance. Please go ahead. Thank you, operator. Thank you f ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Moutai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, and Yanghe from Buy to Neutral, while reiterating Sell on Swellfun and Fenjiu due to their demanding valuations. Gujing is rated as the top pick with a Buy rating [4][7][39]. Core Viewpoints - The supply/demand dynamics for the baijiu sector are expected to deteriorate over the next 12 months due to potential destocking of Moutai's social inventory, capacity expansion by industry leaders, and ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The average EPS CAGR for the baijiu sector is projected to moderate to 8% from 19% during 2020-23 [1][4][39]. - The combined capacity of the top six baijiu companies is anticipated to expand by 37% from 2023 levels, while the primary drinking demographic (males aged 30-59) is expected to decline, leading to a potential 13% volume decline in baijiu consumption during 2023-25E [3][39][40]. Summary by Sections Earnings and Valuation - The report projects 2024E/25E earnings to be 8% and 17% below consensus on average. The baijiu sector is currently trading at 17x 12-month forward PE, compared to a historical average of 22x and a trough of 10x since 2010 [1][15][41]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Moutai's wholesale prices are under pressure due to accumulated social inventory, estimated at 14-15 months' worth of sales, with an average holding cost of Rmb2,079 per bottle, approximately 10% below current prices. If supply is not contained, Moutai and Wuliangye's wholesale prices could fall by 50% and 17% respectively by the end of 2025 [2][30][33]. Demographic Trends - The primary baijiu consumer cohort is experiencing a population decline, which is expected to negatively impact sector volume growth. The report estimates a potential 13% decline in total baijiu consumption volume from 2023 to 2025 [3][39][40]. Company-Specific Insights - Gujing is highlighted as the most preferred stock due to its margin expansion opportunities, while Swellfun and Fenjiu are rated as Sell due to their high valuations [4][39].