Financial Data and Key Metrics - Automation order/sales YoY growth for September remained subdued, showing slight further deceleration compared to August [3] - New energy market decline could narrow from October as the base for new energy demand softened materially in 4Q23 [4] - Yizumi and Haitian International reported healthy order growth in September, with overseas orders growing faster than domestic orders [5] - Inovance suffered a -3% YoY order decline in September, while Airtac posted a -5% sales decline due to fewer working days [5] - Hiwin's YoY sales growth returned to flat in September after declines YTD, benefiting from a low base [5] - Yaskawa's Motion Control sales in China remained at -10% YoY in CNY terms in September [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics - Traditional end-markets (textile, packaging, machine tool, and electronics) grew positively, while the new energy (solar and battery) market remained in contraction [4] - Plastic injection molding machine OEMs (Haitian and Yizumi) continued to see healthy orders at 20-30% YoY in September [5] - Estun delivered +10% growth for its domestic orders, driven by electronics, automotive, and metal processing [17] - Airtac experienced sales growth from electronics, textile and clothing, machine tool, and automotive markets, despite a -5% YoY sales decline in September [18] - Hiwin's order visibility is currently 2-3 months, with gradual improvement in orders since November 2023 driven by semiconductor, automation, aerospace, infrastructure, machine tools, and NEV demand [19] Market Data and Key Metrics - China's Manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [31] - China's PPI decline widened to -1.8% YoY in August, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector [31] - Yaskawa's Motion Control sales in China declined -10% YoY and -7% MoM in CNY terms in September [20] - ABB's inverter sales in China declined -23% YoY but improved +69% MoM in CNY terms, with low-voltage inverter orders soft at -5% YoY in 9M24 [21] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - Inovance expects better order growth in 4Q24 as the base for new energy becomes lower, with comps expected to be lower from November onwards [14] - HCFA believes order decline could narrow from October onwards, as the base for new energy (especially solar) becomes lower [15] - Haitian International reported 30%+ YoY order growth in 3Q24, with domestic orders growing +20% YoY and overseas orders growing 50%+ [16] - Hiwin expects sales to be similar to the 3Q level in 4Q, suggesting a -1% YoY sales decline for 2024, slightly worse than the positive sales growth guidance [19] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management of Inovance expects better order growth in 4Q24 due to a lower base for new energy [14] - HCFA management believes order decline could narrow from October onwards as the base for new energy becomes lower [15] - Airtac acknowledges that shipments in 3Q24 were lower than expectations but still expects 4Q24 to be better than 3Q24 [18] - Hiwin management expects sales to be similar to the 3Q level in 4Q, with gradual improvement in orders driven by various end-markets [19] Other Important Information - The China automation market continues to show disparate growth between traditional and new energy end-markets, with traditional markets outperforming since 2H23 [13] - The global industrial automation sector faces headwinds from soft global manufacturing PMIs and FX movements, particularly for Japanese names [8] - Taiwanese names like Airtac and Hiwin reported disappointing 3Q24 sales declines of -2.4% and -3.5%, respectively, with concerns over Hiwin's expensive valuation and intensifying competition in China [9] Summary of Q&A Session - No specific Q&A session details were provided in the document

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average spot TCE rates across the tanker segment decreased significantly, with VLCC rates down 36% to ~$29,000/day, Suezmax down 25% to ~$33,250/day, and Aframax down 21% to ~$29,700/day [2] - LR2, LR1, and MR rates also saw declines of 42%, 40%, and 31%, averaging ~$26,275/day, ~$18,350/day, and ~$19,850/day respectively [2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product tanker rates experienced a more significant decline compared to crude tankers, attributed to normal seasonality and domestic demand weakness in China [3] - Approximately 37 million barrels of clean products were transported by VLCCs and Suezmax tankers, marking a 43% increase in volume quarter-over-quarter [4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Chinese refined product export quotas for 2024 remain at ~54 million metric tons, consistent with 2023 levels but seasonally lower than last year's quotas [3] - The crude tanker orderbook-to-fleet ratio increased from 2.87% to 9.6% since April 2023, indicating a potential for minimal net fleet growth in the coming years [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to prioritize share repurchases over dividend increases, especially if shares trade below NAV estimates [19][20] - The upcoming easing of OPEC production cuts is expected to positively impact crude tanker demand, particularly in the VLCC segment [9] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the geopolitical landscape, noting that tensions in the Middle East could affect tanker rates and demand [7][8] - The company anticipates that the normalization of trade patterns related to Russia/Ukraine and the Red Sea will significantly influence the tanker market [23] Other Important Information - The company reported QTD spot earnings of ~$44,000/day for LR2, ~$34,000/day for MR, and ~$25,000/day for Handymax, indicating a downward trend in rates for the remainder of the quarter [18] - The company has entered into several vessel sales agreements expected to close in Q4, with total proceeds estimated at ~$158.5 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the tanker market in 2025? - Management indicated that geopolitical tensions could either support or hinder tanker rates, making future predictions uncertain [7][8] Question: How is the company managing its fleet and asset values? - The company noted that secondhand asset values remain firm, with significant increases year-to-date across various tanker segments [10] Question: What is the outlook for dividends and share repurchases? - The company is expected to announce a dividend of ~$0.68/share, maintaining a similar payout ratio as the previous quarter, while prioritizing share repurchases [21]

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Solar Outlook, Clean Technology * **Region**: North America, United States * **Date**: 7 October 2024 Key Topics 1. **US Presidential Elections and Solar Sector**: The upcoming US presidential elections are a pivotal moment for the solar sector. A Democratic victory is seen as positive, with minimal risks to residential demand and incentives. A Republican win could lead to the fading/removal of incentives and dampen sentiment. 2. **Residential Demand Trends**: Demand in the US is stable, with California recovering post NEM 3.0. Southern states are performing well. Europe's demand is lagging, down ~10%+ YoY. 3. **Inverters Update**: Under shipments are expected to be fully done for ENPH in 3Q24. SolarEdge faces challenges in Europe, but US under shipments should clear after 3Q. 4. **Macro Environment**: Interest rates are coming down, benefiting residential solar companies and the market. 5. **Equity Ratings**: Buy-rated First Solar (PT $280), Hold rated on ENPH, SEDG, RUN, and NOVA. Company-Specific Updates * **First Solar (FSLR)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 29. Revenue forecasted at $1.09bn, with ASP of 28c/w and shipments of 3.90GW. Costs forecasted at $113m, leading to operating income of $385m and net income of $356m. * **Enphase Energy (ENPH)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 22. Revenue forecasted at $387m, with GAAP net income of $52m and GAAP EPS of 38c. * **SolarEdge (SEDG)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at $274m, with GAAP gross margin of negative 2%. * **Sunrun (RUN)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at $559mm, with cash generation of negative $4m. * **Sunnova (NOVA)**: Expected to report 3Q24 results on October 30. Revenue forecasted at $241m, with adj. EBITDA of $209m. Additional Information * The report includes graphs and charts on solar power generation, energy costs, and company financials. * The report also includes important disclosures and analyst certifications.

7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Deutsche Bank Research Global Foreign Exchange FX Blog Date 7 October 2024 What is driving high-frequency FX? Main highlights of the High-Frequency monitor: n Our statistical tests show that connectivity from other asset classes to FX has dropped slightly despite higher FX volatility. However, there remains a strong connectivity from US equities, European equities and US rates to FX. Among individual pairs, AUD/JPY has become the currency pair most driven by other asset classes. n Contempor ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's fiscal sector is experiencing both near-term and long-term challenges, with slower public sector activity negatively impacting economic growth [2] - The government has maintained an expansionary fiscal stance, with a deficit around 7% of GDP, but local fiscal spending has contracted due to declining tax and land sales revenue [2][7] - A budget revision is deemed necessary, as fiscal spending may drop by an additional -2.5% YoY without policy changes, while an increase in the deficit could allow for a 3% YoY increase in spending [2][25] Summary by Sections Fiscal Challenges - The revenue-to-GDP ratio in China has declined by almost 10% over the past decade, now at approximately 22% of GDP, significantly lower than G7 (36%) and OECD (39%) averages [15] - The public sector's growth was only 3.4% in H1 2024, the second lowest among all sectors, indicating a slowdown in public sector activity [5] - Fiscal revenue dropped by -5% YoY in the first seven months of 2024, attributed mainly to an -18% YoY decline in land sales and a -5% YoY decline in major taxes like VAT and corporate income tax [10][13] Long-term Strategies - Broadening the tax base on high-end consumption is suggested as a practical approach to reverse the downward trend in fiscal revenue [3] - Local government financing has become increasingly reliant on borrowing or central government transfers, highlighting the need for reforms to boost local revenues [20] - The government's plan to increase revenue through consumption tax is seen as prudent, with current consumption tax revenue at 1.3% of GDP, below the OECD average of 2.9% [27]

Deutsche Bank Research 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Asia Economics Asia Week Ahead Date 2 September 2024 What you need to know: 2 - 6 Sept | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------| | | Juliana Lee | | Week ahead | Chief Economist | | We expect BNM to remain on the sidelines as growth surprised to the upside, and | +65-6423-5203 | | inflation is likel ...