Summary of the Conference Call on China Hardware and Semiconductors Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Hardware and Semiconductors** industry, particularly the smartphone segment and the impact of potential handset subsidies [2][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Potential National Handset Subsidy**: - Anticipated to be introduced in **1H25**, following several provincial subsidy policies in **2H24**. The Jiangsu province subsidy has a cap of **Rmb1500**, primarily benefiting mid to low-price smartphones [2][4]. - Despite these subsidies, overall smartphone sell-out shipments were weak in **2H24**, declining **3% YoY** [4]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The national subsidy is expected to provide a stronger driving force due to its wider regional coverage and specific brand targeting compared to provincial subsidies [2][4]. - The smartphone market is experiencing a shift, with **sub-Rmb2000** phones accounting for **45-50%** of shipments from **2020 to 2024** [7]. 3. **Impact on Smartphone Shipments**: - A **Rmb400-500** subsidy could potentially drive an additional **20-40 million** smartphone shipments, representing **7%-14%** of the estimated **281 million** shipments for **2024** [7]. 4. **Company Exposure**: - Companies such as **Q Tech**, **O-film**, **Goodix**, and **Maxscend** have high exposure to the Chinese smartphone market, with over **70%** of their revenue and profit linked to local manufacturers [8]. - Preferred companies for investment include **Xiaomi**, **Sunny Optical**, and **Will Semi** due to better market capitalization, liquidity, and earnings support [2][8]. 5. **Replacement Cycle**: - The replacement cycle varies by price segment, with low-price segments typically having a **2-3 year** cycle and high-price segments around **4-5 years** [7]. Additional Important Information - **Market Sentiment**: The market is optimistic about the potential impact of the national subsidy, which could stimulate demand in a currently sluggish market [2][4]. - **Shopping Festivals**: Significant effects from the subsidy are expected during major shopping events like **618** and **Double 11** in **2Q25** and **4Q25** [7]. - **User Base**: There are approximately **1.238 billion** monthly active mobile device users in China, indicating a large potential market for smartphone replacements [7]. Companies Mentioned - **Xiaomi**: Expected to benefit from the subsidy due to its market position [12]. - **Sunny Optical**: Noted for its strong earnings support [12]. - **Will Semi**: Highlighted for its favorable market exposure [12]. - **Q Tech**, **O-film**, **Goodix**, **Maxscend**: Identified as companies with significant exposure to the smartphone market [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the potential impacts of handset subsidies on the Chinese hardware and semiconductor industry, particularly in the smartphone sector.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Technology, specifically focusing on the supply chain dynamics related to AI server products, particularly GB200 and GB300 configurations - **Companies Mentioned**: Microsoft, Nvidia (NVDA), Hon Hai Precision, Quanta, Samsung, SK Hynix, Amphenol Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Order Cuts from Microsoft**: Microsoft has made significant order cuts for GB200 racks in 2025, shifting some demand to GB300, indicating a slower than expected ramp for GB200 [1][3] 2. **Upstream Shipment Plans**: The upstream supply chain is still planning for approximately 5 million Blackwell shipments in 2025, with supply expected to ramp up in Q4 2024 [1][3] 3. **Blackwell Shipments Allocation**: Of the 5 million units planned, 2.5 million are expected to be allocated to GB200/GB300 configurations, with flexibility in the upstream supply chain [1][3] 4. **Supply Chain Constraints**: - **TSMC CoWoS-L Yield Issues**: Yield issues related to TSMC's CoWoS-L are largely manageable, but some challenges remain with silicon bridge production [3][4] - **HBM Supply Tightness**: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) supply could be tight unless Samsung qualifies quickly, as SK Hynix may not meet the demand alone [3][4] - **PMIC Design Changes**: Recent changes in PMIC design and vendor may lead to initial supply hiccups, but overall capacity is expected to be adequate [3][4] 5. **Downstream Supplier Risks**: There is a significant gap between upstream component vendors and downstream ODM shipments for GB200, which may lead to supply constraints rather than demand issues [4][5] 6. **Production Gaps**: - **GPU Baseboard Production**: A gap is expected between Blackwell GPU chip production and baseboard shipments due to yield issues and PMIC supply tightness [4][5] - **Amphenol Cartridge Ramp-Up**: Slow ramp-up of Amphenol's cable cartridge could cause mismatches between GPU output and system production [4][5] 7. **Liquid Cooling Components**: No bottlenecks are anticipated in liquid cooling components, with mass production expected to commence in Q1 2025 [4][5] Other Important Insights 1. **Market Share Allocation**: The GB200 server market share allocation indicates that Hon Hai and Quanta will occupy 80% of the market share, with total implied B200 GPU consumption in 2025 estimated at 1.8 million units [6][8] 2. **Potential Shortfalls**: Hon Hai may face a shortfall of 2,000 rack-level volumes in 2025, translating to a 2-3% shortfall in total revenues compared to previous estimates [4][5] 3. **Future Upgrades**: The slow ramp of GB200 may delay the ramp of successor models, particularly GB300, which has meaningful spec upgrades [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and potential risks associated with the GB200 and GB300 product lines, highlighting the dynamics within the technology supply chain and the implications for key players in the industry.

J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research 02 December 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. The Metal Monitor Central banks' buying of gold; Asia Basic Materials call series; weekly recap and ahead | --- | --- | |-------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 November 2024 J P M O R G A N US property outlook with Asian investors Feedback notes from the call shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： M Idea | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

shuinu9870 shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： shuinu9870 shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V： Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 November 2024 J P M O R G A N CK Infrastructure/Power Assets Thoughts on potential acquisition of Thames Water shuinu9870 shuinu9870 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 22 November 2024 | 3:37PM EST Energy, Utilities & Mining Pulse: Investors Asking: What Are Potential YTD Laggards to Leaders in 2025? | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | This week in the Pulse, we ask our senior analyst team to discuss stocks that are ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 November 22, 2024 03:58 AM GMT Asia Pacific Summit 2024 Feedback Sufficient order backlog: Per management, order waiting time for M03 and P7+ has been around 2-3 months; however, stimulus expiration and long waiting time have limited impact on customer's order placement lately given strong product proposition. XPeng believes solid order book will help them to buck the seasonal headwinds better than peers into 1Q25. Multiple model launches: In 1Q25, XPeng will launch Mona M03 Max ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research J P M O R G A N | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------| | | 19 November 2024 | | This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securit ...

19 Nov 2024 01:07:39 ET │ 11 pages Asia FX and Rates Strategy China: Foreign holdings of China bonds reduced further in Oct'24 Foreign flow in fixed income — Foreign holdings of China bonds decreased by US$20bn in Oct'24, mostly driven by CGBs and NCDs. Foreign investors net bought US$1.4bn on the market, but it was not enough to offset US$21.4bn maturity. Overall portfolio flows — Net remittance turned into outflow of US$25.8bn and conversions led to net FX buying of US$3.1bn. This suggests net outflow of ...