February 13, 2025 11:24 AM GMT India Economics | Asia Pacific EcoView: Tariff Tensions – Assessing the Impact on India Direct impact of reciprocal tariff hikes will likely be manageable; however, the indirect impact through uncertainty weighing on business confidence is more worrisome. Domestic policy will likely remain supportive of growth and incrementally more measures will be taken if downside risks emerge. In this month's EcoView, we look at how India is placed with regard to potential tariff hikes and ...

Global Research ab 13 February 2025 First Read China OTA Sector Online travel channel checks: OTAs remain well positioned for travel market growth Domestic: Mixed trends of solid volume and persisting pricing pressure We recently conducted channel checks with multiple travel experts, where we discussed the China travel industry's 2025 outlook, OTA platforms' strategies and the competitive landscape. The experts believe the domestic travel trend of solid volume growth with pricing pressure during CNY is like ...

Market Insights | Markets | Equities Asia Top Trades In the 39th edition of Asia Top Trades, we highlight top ideas from across the APAC Equities franchise. 1) China Moves Back to Focus References to 'we' refer to those of the desk only and does not represent the official view of GS. 1) China Moves Back to Focus China has witnessed a strong start post CNY, with Southbound net buying hit US$2.1bn on Monday, our PB book seeing largest net buying (mostly from long buys) in over 4 months last week, and macro in ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Property Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property sector** and its recent developments following a policy pivot in September 2024 aimed at stabilization [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Improvements**: Since the policy shift in September 2024, the property sector has shown signs of recovery, particularly in home sales in large cities, with secondary home prices stabilizing in some areas [3][4][6]. 2. **Policy Easing Effectiveness**: The current policy easing is deemed more effective than previous efforts, attributed to significant price corrections, supportive monetary and fiscal policies, and the release of pent-up demand from consumers who had previously delayed purchases [3][17]. 3. **Structural Divergences**: There are ongoing structural divergences within the property sector, such as: - Home sales outperforming construction activities - Large cities outperforming smaller cities - Secondary market transactions outperforming primary market sales - Sales of completed new homes outperforming presales [3][18]. 4. **Core to Stabilization**: Stabilizing home prices is crucial for policymakers to address the property downturn. A significant reduction in housing inventory, higher rental yields, and improved financing conditions are necessary for sustainable stabilization [3][34]. 5. **Housing Inventory and Rental Yields**: Despite recent improvements in home sales, housing inventory remains high, particularly in lower-tier cities. The report estimates that reducing inventory to 2018 levels would require approximately RMB6 trillion [35]. Rental yields in large cities have gradually improved, approaching the yields of 30-year Chinese government bonds [36]. 6. **Future Expectations**: The property sector is expected to continue weighing on China's GDP growth, with an estimated drag of 1.9 percentage points in 2025, slightly less than the 2.0 percentage points in 2024. A narrowing of this drag is anticipated starting in 2026 [38][41]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights that secondary home transactions accounted for 44% of nationwide home sales in 2024, a significant increase from 19% in 2021, indicating a shift in buyer preferences due to concerns over developers' ability to deliver new homes [27]. - **Construction Weakness**: Despite improvements in home sales, construction-related metrics such as new homes under construction and property investment have continued to weaken [6][21]. - **Policy Measures**: The report outlines various policy measures implemented since 2022, including reductions in downpayment ratios and mortgage rates, aimed at stimulating housing transactions [5][17]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese property sector.

Summary of Barclays Emerging Asia Outlook Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Emerging Asia Economic Outlook - **Focus**: Impact of US trade tariffs on Emerging Asia economies Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of US Trade Tariffs**: The 10% US trade tariffs on China and retaliatory actions are expected to negatively affect Emerging Asia, particularly export-oriented economies like Taiwan, which is more vulnerable than Korea or Singapore [2][5][6] 2. **Economic Sensitivity**: Emerging Asia's historical growth sensitivity to China and the US indicates that newly industrialized economies are the most vulnerable to global trade tensions [2][5] 3. **Limited Impact from Mexico and Canada**: The direct economic damage from tariffs on Mexico and Canada is expected to be limited for Emerging Asia, as these countries account for only 1-4% of merchandise exports from the region [4][8] 4. **Indirect Exposure**: Despite limited direct exposure, Emerging Asia's indirect exposure to the Mexican export channel to the US is comparable to its dependence on the Chinese export channel [4][13] 5. **Proactive Strategies**: Some governments in Emerging Asia are adopting proactive strategies to avoid US tariffs, similar to strategies employed during previous trade tensions [13][15] 6. **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points, with expectations for further cuts due to low growth and manageable inflation [16][17] 7. **Philippines Rate Cut Expectations**: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points amid concerns about growth and inflation remaining below target [18][26] 8. **Political Uncertainty in the Philippines**: The impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte could create political uncertainty, potentially impacting financial markets as elections approach [19][20] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Economic Data Review**: Recent economic data from various countries in Emerging Asia shows mixed results, with some countries like Korea experiencing a trade balance deficit while others like Malaysia show a recovery in merchandise trade surplus [22][28] 2. **Future Economic Projections**: Projections for GDP growth in India suggest a gradual increase, with expectations of 6.7% in Q1 FY25-26 and 7.0% in FY26-27 [30] 3. **Inflation Trends**: CPI inflation in India is expected to moderate, while other countries like Indonesia show signs of declining inflation rates [24][30] 4. **Trade Balance Trends**: India's trade balance is projected to improve, with expectations of narrowing deficits in the coming months [25][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Barclays Emerging Asia Outlook, highlighting the economic implications of US trade policies and the responses from various countries in the region.

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Feb 2025 03:57:24 ET │ 13 pages Asia FX and Rates Strategy China: Bond Supply/Demand Dynamics – How To Measure "Asset Famine"? CITI'S TAKE We discuss China bond demand and supply outlook for 2025, and come up with a way to proxy demand-supply balance to measure the degree of "asset famine" in China. Under our base case assumptions, the "asset famine" may be somewhat less severe in 2025, but the overall bond demand-supply balance may still skew towards the demand side. Rohit Garg AC +6 ...

Flash | 05 Feb 2025 11:49:26 ET │ 10 pages CITI'S TAKE MCT reported travel traffic and industry revs were up 5.9/7.0% yoy 501mn/Rmb677bn during 8-day CNY holiday, implying average spending per capita +1%, while MOT reported national passenger throughput up 5.8% with volume of railway/airline/roadway/waterway +5/+3/+6/+7% during the holiday. OTAs' share prices corrected today, which we attribute to 1) passenger throughput growth not picking up in last two days of CNY holiday as some investors had expected, e ...

ab 5 February 2025 Global Research Asian Autos Sector What conditions support buying on weakness? High quality is key The 25% import tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico to the US have been delayed one month to March, but tariffs, including on exports to the US from other regions, remains a risk factor for the auto and auto parts sector. Negative impact comes not only in the form of direct increases in vehicle costs, but also from multiple factors such as higher prices for parts and raw materials and del ...

12 January 2025 | 2:43PM HKT Asia Credit Notes: HK Property Credits Mostly Sound, But Tail Risk Concerns Linger HK property IG credits have underperformed. HK property sector has been an underperformer in Asia IG over the past 12 months. Using the ICE-BAML Asia Dollar index, we note that spreads for HK A-rated Property credits used to trade in line with Asia A Corp, but began diverging in late 2023. Currently, spreads for HK A-rated Property sector are at 67bps, and are 10bps wider than Asia A Corp spreads ...

Global Markets Strategy 12 January 2025 China Equity Strategy Assessing DoD list consequences & possible index reversal This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Last week, renewed fears over US-China risks (Tencent and CATL were included into the US D ...