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奥多比(ADOBE)
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
Good day and welcome to the Q4 and FY24 Adobe Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Steve Day, SVP, DX, CFO, and Corporate Finance Interim Head of IR. Please go ahead, sir. Good afternoon, Adobe's Chair and CEO, David Wadwani. President of Digital Media, Anil Chakravarthy, President of Digital Experience, and Dan Dern, Executive Vice President and CFO. On this call, which is being recorded, we will discuss Adobe's fourth quarter ...
冰雪经济之旅游、运动
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
本次电话会议内容否则将承担由此造成的一切不良后果及法律责任血偏证券将暂停相关人员及机构把名单权限直至相关不良影响消除 各位投资者大家晚上好我是平安经销队组的研究员胡琼芳今天我们是冰雪经济相关的专家交流我们提点的也是旅游这方面的一位专家专家对哈尔滨的一个情况有比较深入的了解 那我们就从这个旅游这个这两年就是哈尔滨旅游大体的一个情况然后和疫情前比如说像一些维度比如说像人次还有这个平均花费呆的时间等等这些角度就我不知道咱们这边能不能帮我们先简单的展开一下好的等一下能听见我说话是吧可以的 然后前段时间咱们也是发改委发了一个推动东北地区冰雪经济高质量发展全面振兴取得新突破的实施方案然后这个方案也是在哈尔滨或者是整个东北范围内引起了一个比较高的关注全国范围内关注冰雪和地方东北冰雪的也是关注度比较高 那整体的一个工作方向来说的话其实还是要进行东北工业基地嘛大家也知道这几年东北的经济环境一直不是特别好然后无论是GDP啊还有平均增长率都是相对较低的包括人口流失那可能冰雪经济来说的话可能也是一个进行东北或者是中央给一个东北一个扶持的一个支柱吧那其实我们从整体的旅游环境来看 就是说我们这个旅游行业能不能成为地方的一个经济支柱其实从 ...
超强千亿国补,内需拉动战启动
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
各位老师大家好欢迎大家来到今天的主题培训那我们今天要去跟大家交流的话题呢就是关于这个千亿国补的这个问题那其实国补这个问题的这个本质呢就是要去扩大内需那其实从今年以来中央为了去推动这个内需的扩张也是采取了一系列的措施尤其是到我们12月9号刚刚结束的政治局会议也正式定调了明年去发展的这样一个核心 那整体上的这个方向呢还是比较宽松的并且是比较值得期待的这样一个宽松的基调那其实从这个内需这个角度来看的话包括央行也在去提到说这个宏观经济它发挥作用的方向也要向这个消费这一端来去进行倾斜更加在这个投资和消费当中更加去重视消费尤其是居民端的这样一个消费那其实这样的一个政策呢从基本上今年下半年开始就是持续的在去释放出类似的这样一些增量信号 尤其是到了下半年其实财政政策这一方面的倾斜也是非常明显的我们也马上到了年底的时间了我们也可以借着这一次的培训课程来一起回顾一下今年整年的宏观经济表现包括我们在各个阶段来去采取的一些相应的货币和财政政策以及它起到的一个效果 好 那我们今天的这个课程内容会围绕中国目前GDP的表现会从消费投资和出口三驾马车的角度出发来去分别探讨一下相关的政策和政策效果并且我们也会回归到一个最朴素的供给需求理论来去 ...
有色金属年度策略
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
谢谢主持人各位朋友大家下午好我是德邦证券的研究员翟昆那今天的话在这边也是非常荣幸感谢万德的邀请跟大家做一个线上的汇报那我们这次的话也跟大家交流一下我们近期刚刚发出来的就是有色金属板块2025年的年度投资策略我们的标题叫做下游空间广阔黄金持续看好 同旅竞待绽放那这个其实也是我们对明年整个有色金属板块我们明年一个核心大的展望那这个从整个投资一个大的一个战略的角度包括我们从整个大的周期的角度把握的话那我们这个未来的一个投资策略正如这个标题所说我们最看好的其实是有色的下游 那对于黄金我们认为其实是随时都是会一个比较不错的投资的机会都是一个比较好的买入机会这个是我们持续看好的这个核心的品种那同理 为代表的工业品因为当前其实我们在一个经济复苏的周期铜铝其实这个品种都已经受到了一个供给端的约束所以未来只要我们能等到看到需求端回暖的信号能看到PPI回暖的这么一个信号铜铝其实也是能带来非常不错的弹性这个是我们对于2025年整体优色金属板块的一个大的框架的看法 那在这边的话我也是分为几个部分先从我们这个投资的核心要点跟大家做一个展开然后就是关于一些核心的品种跟大家做一个大概的一个展开的一个汇报先说一下就是有色板块其实也是作为周期 ...
现货涨价,集运期价为何一跌再跌?
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the shipping industry and its dynamics, particularly in relation to tariffs and market conditions influenced by geopolitical factors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends and Stock Performance** - The stock market index increased by 7.22% to 3,032.96 points, but this was below investor expectations, which ranged between 3,060 and 3,000 [1] - The shipping cost market is not optimistic, with actual prices potentially lower than $100,000 [6] - The stock prices of shipping companies have shown weakness, with no significant follow-up price increases since January [8] 2. **Impact of Tariffs** - Trump's proposed tariffs include a 10% increase on all foreign goods and a 60% increase on Chinese goods, which has led to fluctuations in product prices [2] - The long-term implementation of tariffs could negatively impact the U.S. economy, as indicated by Trump's own admission [4][8] 3. **Geopolitical Factors** - The ongoing negotiations regarding the Caspian-Tibetan ceasefire may influence market sentiment and investor behavior [4][5] - The shipping industry is affected by geopolitical tensions, which could lead to significant gains or losses depending on the outcomes of negotiations [5] 4. **Supply and Demand Dynamics** - The supply of goods has not met expectations, leading to a relatively balanced state of supply and demand in the shipping market [7] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected, particularly before the Spring Festival, which may temporarily boost shipping prices [6] 5. **Future Outlook** - The market is currently in a state of shock, with potential for a rebound in the coming weeks, but overall demand is not as strong as anticipated [8][9] - The shipping industry may need to adjust to a new normal in pricing and demand as geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainties persist [4][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The shipping industry has experienced a price increase of about four rounds since November, but the overall market sentiment remains weak [5] - The concentration of ships in the O-line indicates a need for more mutual transactions to ensure timely deliveries, which could affect profitability [7] - The demand for shipping services is expected to improve after mid-to-late December, but current conditions suggest a cautious approach to inventory management [9]
医美肉毒素专题
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **medical aesthetics industry**, specifically focusing on the **botulinum toxin (botox)** segment, which combines pharmaceutical and consumer attributes, indicating a strong product-driven characteristic alongside high operational demands [2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The botulinum toxin market is experiencing significant changes in supply and demand, with a notable increase in product approvals in China, which is expected to enhance market penetration [1][3]. 2. **Demand Growth Factors**: The demand for botulinum toxin is anticipated to grow due to increased penetration rates, accelerated planning, and the extension of indications [4][10]. 3. **Comparative Analysis**: The call highlights the rapid expansion of medical aesthetic clinics in Japan, which has led to a substantial increase in botulinum toxin demand, with an annual growth rate of 18% from 2017 to 2023 [5]. 4. **Market Penetration**: Current penetration rates in China are low compared to other markets, with only 12% of potential consumers having undergone botulinum toxin treatments, indicating significant room for growth [10][12]. 5. **Regulatory Environment**: The regulatory landscape is strict for botulinum toxin, with severe penalties for non-compliance, which may limit the market for non-compliant products [11][12]. 6. **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive dynamics are evolving, with local companies in South Korea and the U.S. leveraging aggressive marketing strategies to build brand loyalty and market share [3][18][34]. Additional Important Content 1. **Product Innovation**: The innovation cycle for botulinum toxin products is relatively slow, with companies focusing on marketing and direct sales to enhance brand strength and market control [3][17][27]. 2. **Market Projections**: The market for botulinum toxin in China is projected to reach **144 billion RMB** by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [17]. 3. **Regional Differences**: The U.S. market shows a high market share for established brands like Allergan, while South Korea faces intense price competition among local manufacturers [18][22]. 4. **Consumer Behavior**: The consumer demographic in China is younger, with over 50% of aesthetic consumers under 30, which may affect the overall demand for botulinum toxin treatments [9][10]. 5. **Emerging Products**: New products like **Daxify** from Revance are entering the market, targeting the high-end segment with longer-lasting effects, which could shift market dynamics [42][43]. Conclusion - The botulinum toxin market in the medical aesthetics industry is poised for growth, driven by regulatory approvals, increasing consumer demand, and evolving competitive strategies. Companies that can effectively navigate these dynamics and leverage marketing and innovation will likely succeed in capturing market share.
光模块行业投资机遇展望:硅光、DCI、AEC等新技术带来新方向
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
Good evening, investors. I'm Wei Dongcheng, the co-founder of ZTE. I'd also like to thank all the investors for coming to our conference at such a late hour. We're here to talk about two things. First, we'd like to talk about our current communication. In short, we think that the overall basic aspect is still good. The market is worried, but we currently think that these concerns may not be as bad as imagined in the market. In the future, I think that whether it is from the basic aspect or from the market s ...
半导体设备行业信用风险展望
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery driven by the resurgence of consumer electronics and advancements in artificial intelligence, with sales expected to approach $600 billion in 2024, marking 11 consecutive months of positive growth as of September 2024 [1][2] - The recovery is uneven across regions, with China showing a stable growth rate of 24% in semiconductor sales for the first nine months of 2024 [1][3] Regional Insights Japan - Japan's semiconductor sales were in negative growth from January to July 2024 but turned positive in August with a growth rate of 7.7% in September [2] - The slow recovery is attributed to limited domestic growth and sluggish upgrades in 5G and AI chip technologies [2][6] Europe - Europe faced continuous negative growth in semiconductor sales from January to September 2024, with declines exceeding 10% in some months [2][6] - The low performance is linked to global supply chain fluctuations affecting the semiconductor market [2][7] China - China's semiconductor industry growth rate was approximately 20% from January to September 2024, supported by ongoing industrial policies and capital market activities [9][12] - Recent policies have encouraged mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor sector, particularly in the design phase [9][10] Regulatory Environment - New U.S. export controls on 24 semiconductor equipment types and three software tools have been implemented, affecting both direct and indirect use of U.S. technology [3][4] - The regulations include stricter licensing requirements for high-performance memory chips and an expanded entity list that now includes 136 Chinese companies [3][4] Equipment and Manufacturing Trends - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see increased demand, with a shift towards domestic equipment manufacturers in China due to supply chain stability efforts [4][18] - TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to exceed $30 billion in 2024, driven by strong demand for advanced chips [14][15] - The advanced packaging market is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 8.7%, reaching $72.4 billion by 2028, largely due to AI-driven demand [22][23] Mergers and Acquisitions - The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant M&A activity, with companies like RapidX receiving substantial government support to enhance their capabilities [5][11] - Notable acquisitions include companies expanding their technological capabilities and market reach, such as the acquisition of PCB design software by Renesas Electronics [6][11] Financial Performance - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers reported revenue growth exceeding 50% in 2024, with companies like Zhongwei achieving a 52% increase in new orders [18][26] - The overall profit margins and cash flow for the semiconductor sector remain robust, despite potential disruptions from export controls [25][26] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is on a recovery path, influenced by regional dynamics, regulatory changes, and technological advancements. The focus on domestic production and innovation is expected to shape the industry's future landscape, with significant growth opportunities in advanced packaging and equipment sectors.
年终热门赛道盘点,机器人时代的前世今生
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:02
投资者朋友们大家好我们今天很荣幸邀请到了华夏基金数量投资部副总裁华龙总华龙总先跟大家打个招呼吧哈喽大家好我是华夏基金机器人ETF的经纪人李华龙欢迎华龙总我们今天的标题还用了一个谐音梗再见爱人再见AI人 那站在今天这个2024年年中的这个时间点我们一起来回顾一下今年的热门赛道之一机器人那华龙总呢也是机器人ETF的基金经理相信在这方面有很多的研究和观察那机器人产业链目前的进程怎么样有哪些可以关注的投资机会呢 非常期待今天的华龙总的交流我们首先还是先回顾一下今年的机器人赛道其实今年不管是一级还是二级市场都可以说是持续火热我这里也有几组数据跟大家分享一下根据高峰机器人的产业研究所数据显示今年1月到10月份全球的人行机器人行业一共发生了69体融资事件融资总额超过了110亿人民币 从二级市场来看也同样火热万德数据显示截至到12月3号成交额其实已经超过了4.3万亿了从这些数据我们也可以看到一二级对机器人板块的关注度可以说是非常的高我也想问一下黄龙总您认为机器人产业呈现出了哪些特点和趋势是引起了全市场的关注包括今年以来有哪些事件是让您印象深刻的能不能也给我们分享一下黄龙总好的 确实就是今年的话对于这个整个机器人产业来说确实是 ...
供需矛盾加剧 聚丙烯后市如何演变
21世纪新健康研究院· 2024-12-13 04:01
大家下午好我是信息产品部剧品系分析师我叫张娜很高兴能有这个机会跟大家分享交流今天我分析文章的题目是供需矛盾加剧剧品系后市如何演变接下来我们从这三个部分看一下 第一部分2024年1到11月份国内聚秉烯市场走势第二部分国内聚秉烯行业数据分析第三部分2025年聚秉烯市场走势预测好 那我们先来看一下第一部分由图表可以看出 2024年的一个价格变化较2022年、2023年波动幅度较小整体变化不大2024年来看国内聚秉烯拉丝市场呈现一个跌后反弹随后窄幅震荡的一个走势以华东市场拉丝为例最高价出现在7月份 价格在7955元每吨最低价出现在二月中上旬价格在7425元每吨那具体来看呢一到二月份国内检修装置较少叠加叠钱商家补货意愿较低的因素影响市场价格上行乏力 此外二月份横跨春节假期上游库存承压下游及终端需求恢复缓慢成交缺乏有效的配合月内降至年底年内最低点三月份受到两会的一个预期支撑国内促进消费的政策政策下市场心态有明显的好转 但中下旬随着市场炒作气氛下降场内交投力度放缓进入二季度呢宏观利好政策连环出台市场资金活跃度明显提升此外加上供应压力的一个暂缓其成本偏强也推动了行情的一个上移尤其五月份 市场拉丝价格上涨明显三季度来看巨饼新市 ...