Group 1 - The stock market in 2026 is characterized by volatility, allowing investors to be selective about stock choices in their portfolios [1] - The term "SaaSpocalypse" refers to the significant decline in valuations of many high-quality software companies, driven by exaggerated fears surrounding AI [1] Group 2 - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies and advising startups, contributing to the understanding of current industry themes [2] - His insights have been featured in various web publications and are syndicated to popular trading apps like Robinhood [2]

Core Viewpoint - Meritage Homes reported mixed results for Q4 2025, with adjusted earnings exceeding estimates while total revenues fell short, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market [2][4]. Earnings and Revenue Summary - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.67, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55 by 7.7%, but down 30.1% year-over-year from $2.39 [4]. - Total revenues amounted to $1.436 billion, a decline from $1.622 billion in the previous year [4]. Segment Performance - Homebuilding revenues were $1.428 billion, down 12% year-over-year and missing the consensus estimate by 5.2% [5]. - Home closing revenues of $1.406 billion also fell 12% year-over-year due to lower average selling prices (ASPs) and reduced closing volumes [5][6]. - Land closing revenues increased by 21% year-over-year to $21.1 million [5]. Operational Metrics - The company closed 3,755 homes, down from 4,044 units in the prior year, with an ASP decline of 5% to $375,000 [6]. - Total home orders decreased by 2% year-over-year to 3,224 units, with a dollar value drop of 9% to $1.206 billion [6]. - The backlog at quarter-end was 1,168 units, down 24% year-over-year, with a value decrease of 30% to $440.6 million [7]. Margin and Cost Analysis - Home closing gross margin contracted by 670 basis points to 16.5%, influenced by non-recurring charges and higher lot costs [7]. - Adjusted home closing gross margin was 19.3%, down 400 basis points year-over-year [7]. - SG&A expenses as a percentage of home closing revenues were 10.6%, slightly down from 10.8% in the prior year [8]. Financial Position - Meritage Homes ended 2025 with $775.2 million in cash and equivalents, an increase from $651.6 million at the end of 2024 [10]. - The debt-to-capital ratio was 26%, with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 16.9% [10]. - The company repurchased 4,289,984 shares for $295 million and paid $121 million in dividends during 2025 [10]. Future Guidance - The company anticipates home closing volume and revenue to remain consistent with full-year 2025 results [11]. Estimate Trends - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 19.34% [12]. VGM Scores - Meritage has a subpar Growth Score of D, a Momentum Score of C, and a Value Score of D, placing it in the bottom 40% for investment strategy [13]. Outlook - Estimates are trending downward, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [14].

Core Viewpoint - Navient's recent earnings report indicates a mixed performance, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassing estimates but overall financial metrics showing declines, leading to a negative market reaction [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Navient reported adjusted EPS of 39 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 31 cents, compared to 25 cents in the prior-year quarter [2]. - The company experienced a GAAP net loss of $5 million, contrasting with a net income of $24 million in the same quarter last year [4]. - Net interest income (NII) declined 3.7% year over year to $129 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.3% [6]. - Total expenses decreased by 34.2% year over year to $100 million [6]. Segment Performance - The Federal Education Loans segment generated a net income of $27 million, significantly up from $10 million in the prior year [7]. - The Consumer Lending segment reported a net income of $25 million, down 32.4% from the year-ago quarter [7]. - The delinquency rate for private education loans greater than 30 days increased to 6.3% from 6.1% in the prior year [8]. Liquidity and Capital Management - As of December 31, 2025, the company had $637 million in total unrestricted cash and liquid investments [9]. - In Q4, Navient paid $15 million in common stock dividends and repurchased shares for $26 million [10]. 2026 Outlook - Core EPS is projected to be between 65 cents and 80 cents, with loan originations expected to reach $4 billion, a 60% increase compared to 2025 [11]. - Total expenses for the full year 2026 are anticipated to be $350 million [11]. Market Reaction and Estimates - Following the earnings release, there has been a downward trend in consensus estimates, with a shift of -8.63% [12]. - Navient currently holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the coming months [14].

Core Viewpoint - National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) reported strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, beating estimates and showing significant year-over-year growth in both earnings and revenues, indicating positive momentum leading up to the next earnings release [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted operating earnings for Q1 fiscal 2026 were $2.06 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.91 by 7.85% and increasing 24.1% from $1.66 in the prior year [2]. - Total revenues reached $651.5 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $647 million by 0.7% and reflecting an 18.6% increase from $549.5 million in the previous year [3]. - Total operating expenses decreased to $375.4 million, down 18.9% from $463.3 million in the year-ago quarter, contributing to an operating income of $276.1 million, which is up 220.3% from $86.2 million [5]. Segment Performance - Utility segment revenues were $259.05 million, up 13.4% from $228.4 million in the year-ago quarter [4]. - Integrated upstream and Gathering and Other segments generated revenues of $323.2 million, reflecting a 28.1% increase from $252.4 million [4]. - Pipeline and Storage segment revenues amounted to $69.2 million, a slight increase of 0.6% from $68.8 million [4]. Production and Cash Flow - Seneca produced 109 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, an increase of 11 Bcf or 12% from the prior year, attributed to new Utica pads in Tioga County [6]. - Cash and temporary cash investments as of December 31, 2025, were $271.4 million, significantly up from $43.2 million as of September 30, 2025 [7]. - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q1 fiscal 2026 totaled $274.9 million, compared to $220.1 million in the previous year [7]. Guidance and Future Outlook - NFG reiterated its guidance for adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2026 to be between $7.60 and $8.10, with capital expenditure expected to be in the range of $0.96-$1.07 billion [8][9]. - Production for fiscal 2026 is anticipated to be between 440-455 Bcf [9]. - Recent estimates have shown a 20.66% upward trend, indicating positive sentiment among investors [10]. Investment Scores - NFG has a Growth Score of B and a Value Score of B, but lags in Momentum Score with a D, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of B [11].

Core Viewpoint - Otis Worldwide reported mixed fourth-quarter 2025 results, with earnings meeting estimates but net sales missing expectations, indicating a need for careful monitoring of future performance [2][5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for Q4 2025 were $1.03 per share, a 10.8% increase from the previous year’s EPS of $0.93, aligning with the Zacks Consensus Estimate [5]. - Net sales reached $3.8 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $3.9 billion by 2.7%, but reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.3% [5]. - Adjusted operating margin expanded by 70 basis points year-over-year to 16.6%, driven by a favorable segment mix and improved performance across key segments [6]. Segment Performance - The Service segment saw net sales increase by 8% year-over-year to $2.5 billion, with organic sales rising by 5% [7]. - New Equipment segment net sales fell by 5% year-over-year to $1.29 billion, with organic sales declining by 6% [9]. - The Service segment's operating margin improved by 100 basis points to 25.5%, while the New Equipment segment's operating margin contracted by 110 basis points to 3.6% [8][10]. 2025 Highlights - Total net sales for 2025 were $14.4 billion, a slight increase from $14.3 billion in 2024 [13]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025 was $2.4 billion, up from $2.3 billion in 2024, with adjusted EPS rising to $4.05 from $3.83 [13]. 2026 Guidance - Otis expects net sales for 2026 to be between $15 billion and $15.3 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of approximately 4.2%-6.3% [14]. - Organic sales growth is projected in the low- to mid-single-digit range, with adjusted EPS expected to increase in the mid- to high-single-digit range [14]. Financial Position - As of December 31, 2025, Otis had cash and cash equivalents of $1.1 billion, down from $2.3 billion at the end of 2024 [12]. - Long-term debt decreased to $6.9 billion from $6.97 billion at the end of 2024, while net cash flows from operating activities increased to $1.59 billion [12]. Market Position - Otis Worldwide has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of an in-line return in the coming months [17]. - The company has a strong Growth Score of A but is lagging in Momentum with an F, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [16].

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management reported a positive fourth-quarter earnings performance, surpassing estimates, but faced challenges in net interest income and has seen a downward trend in estimates recently [2][4][11]. Earnings Performance - For Q4 2025, Annaly reported earnings available for distribution (EAD) per share of 74 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents and up from 72 cents in the previous year [2]. - The annual EAD per share for 2025 was $2.92, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.90 and improving from $2.70 in the prior year [3]. Financial Metrics - Net interest income (NII) for Q4 was $366.6 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 21.8%, compared to $187.3 million in the prior-year quarter [4]. - For the full year 2025, NII totaled $1.13 billion, falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.24 billion, with a prior year NII of $247.8 million [4]. - The average yield on interest-earning assets was 5.44%, up from 5.26% in the previous year, while the average economic cost of interest-bearing liabilities increased to 3.95% from 3.79% [5]. Book Value and Ratios - Annaly's book value per share (BVPS) as of December 31, 2025, was $20.21, an increase from $19.15 in the prior year [6]. - The economic capital ratio improved to 14.9% from 14.8% year-over-year, and economic leverage was 5.6X, up from 5.5X [6]. Returns and Scores - The annualized EAD return on average equity for Q4 was 14.28%, slightly up from 14.27% in the prior year [7]. - Annaly has a subpar Growth Score of D, but a better Momentum Score of B, and a value score of B, placing it in the second quintile for value investors [9][10]. Outlook - Estimates for Annaly have been trending downward, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [8][11].

Core Viewpoint - Progressive Corporation has shown positive performance in its stock price, with a 1.7% increase since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 [1][2]. Earnings Performance - In Q4 2025, Progressive reported earnings per share of $4.67, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.2%, and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.4% [3]. - Operating revenues for the quarter rose 10.6% year over year to $22.49 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate by 2.5% [3]. Premiums and Investment Gains - Net premiums written reached $19.5 billion, an 8% increase from $18.1 billion a year ago, while net premiums earned grew 10% to $21 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $20.9 billion [4]. - The company reported a net realized gain on securities of $257 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $53 million in the same quarter last year [4]. Full-Year Financial Highlights - For the full year, operating revenues increased by 15.7% to $86.9 billion, driven by a 15.3% rise in net premiums earned and a 26.5% increase in net investment income [5]. - Total expenses rose 13.5% to $73.4 billion, influenced by higher losses, policy acquisition costs, and other underwriting expenses [6]. Policies in Force - The number of policies in force in the Personal Lines segment increased by 11% year over year to 37.4 million, with notable growth in Direct Auto and Agency Auto segments [7]. Financial Metrics - As of December 30, 2025, Progressive's book value per share was $51.74, an 18.4% increase from $43.67 a year earlier, and the return on equity improved to 40.1% from 36.4% [8]. Estimate Trends - Following the earnings release, there has been an upward trend in consensus estimates, with a shift of 6.21% noted [9]. VGM Scores - Progressive holds a Growth Score of A, a Momentum Score of D, and a Value Score of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of A, indicating strong overall performance [10]. Outlook - Estimates for Progressive have been trending upward, and the company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [11]. Industry Performance - Progressive operates within the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, where RLI Corp. has seen a 6.3% gain over the past month, reporting revenues of $448.73 million for the last quarter [12].

Core Viewpoint - Plexus reported a strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance, with adjusted EPS beating estimates and revenues showing significant year-over-year growth, although slightly missing consensus expectations [2][3][12]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q1 fiscal 2026 was $1.78, up from $1.73 in the previous year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.77 [2]. - Revenues reached $1.07 billion, reflecting a 9.6% increase year-over-year, but marginally missing the consensus estimate of $1.071 billion [2]. - Gross profit increased by 5.4% year-over-year to $106.2 million, with a gross margin of 9.9%, down from 10.3% in the prior year [9]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from the Americas rose by 25.9% to $345 million, while EMEA and Asia-Pacific revenues increased by 16.8% and 0.8%, respectively [3]. - The Aerospace/Defense sector saw an 11.3% year-over-year increase in revenues to $178 million, contributing 17% to total revenues [5]. - Healthcare/Life Sciences revenues grew by 24.6% year-over-year to $466 million, accounting for 43% of total revenues [6]. - The Industrial sector's revenues decreased by 3.6% year-over-year to $426 million, contributing 40% to total revenues [7]. Operational Highlights - Plexus announced 22 manufacturing program wins, expected to generate $283 million in annualized revenues once fully ramped up [3]. - Management anticipates meeting or exceeding the high end of the 9% to 12% revenue growth target for fiscal 2026 due to program wins and strengthening market demand [4]. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - As of January 3, 2026, cash and cash equivalents were $248.8 million, down from $306.5 million as of September 27, 2025 [10]. - The company reported negative free cash flow of $50.6 million for the quarter, following capital expenditures of $35.2 million [11]. Q2 Outlook - For Q2 fiscal 2026, revenues are projected to be between $1.11 billion and $1.15 billion, with non-GAAP EPS expected in the range of $1.80 to $1.95 [12]. Market Sentiment - Following the earnings release, there has been a 13.19% upward shift in consensus estimates, indicating positive investor sentiment [13]. - Plexus holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [15].

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks reported mixed Q1 fiscal 2026 results, with earnings missing estimates but revenues exceeding expectations, indicating a potential for sustainable growth driven by the "Back to Starbucks" strategy [3][4]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 fiscal 2026 were 56 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 58 cents, and down 19% from 69 cents in the prior-year quarter [5]. - Net revenues reached $9.91 billion, surpassing the consensus mark of $9.64 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.5% [5]. - Global comparable store sales increased by 4% year over year, supported by a 3% rise in comparable transactions and a 1% increase in average ticket [6]. Segment Analysis - North America segment net revenues were $7.28 billion, up 3% year over year, with comparable store sales rising 4% [8]. - International segment net revenues increased by 10% year over year to $2.06 billion, with comparable store sales up 5% [9]. - Channel Development segment net revenues grew by 20% year over year to $522.7 million, driven by contributions to the Global Coffee Alliance [10]. Margin and Cost Analysis - Non-GAAP operating margin contracted by 180 basis points to 10.1% due to increased labor costs and inflationary pressures [7]. - North America operating margin decreased by 480 basis points to 11.9%, while the International segment's operating margin improved by 100 basis points to 13.7% [8][9]. Financial Position - The company ended Q1 with cash and cash equivalents of $3.41 billion, up from $3.22 billion at the end of the previous quarter [11]. - Long-term debt remained stable at $14.6 billion [11]. Future Outlook - Starbucks anticipates global and U.S. comparable store sales to rise at least 3% in fiscal 2026, with overall net revenues expected to increase at a similar pace [12]. - Non-GAAP EPS is projected to be between $2.15 and $2.40, with plans to open approximately 600 to 650 net new locations [13].

Core Viewpoint - Prosperity Bancshares reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing estimates, driven by increased net interest income (NII) and non-interest income, despite a decline in loan balances [2][4]. Financial Performance - Q4 2025 adjusted earnings were $1.46, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.45, marking a 6.6% year-over-year growth [2]. - Total revenues for Q4 were $317.7 million, up from $307.6 million a year earlier, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $317.3 million [5]. - For the full year 2025, total revenues reached $1.25 billion, reflecting a 4.8% increase year over year [5]. Income and Expenses - NII increased by 4.5% year over year to $275 million, with net interest margin (NIM) expanding by 25 basis points to 3.30% [6]. - Non-interest income rose to $42.8 million, a 7.4% increase, driven by higher fee-based revenues [7]. - Non-interest expenses decreased by 2% year over year to $138.7 million, contributing to an improved efficiency ratio of 43.66% [8]. Balance Sheet and Capital Position - As of December 31, 2025, total assets were $38.46 billion, with total loans at $21.81 billion (down 1%) and deposits increasing by 2.5% to $28.48 billion [9]. - The common equity tier 1 ratio improved to 17.55%, and the total risk-based capital ratio rose to 18.80% [10]. Credit Quality - Non-performing assets increased to $150.8 million from $81.5 million a year ago, while net charge-offs rose to $5.9 million [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 2.04 million shares at an average price of $67.10 during the reported quarter [13]. Future Outlook - NIM is expected to be at least 3.50% for 2026, with management anticipating non-interest expenses to be between $172-$176 million for Q1 2026 [14][15]. - Estimates for the stock have been trending downward, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [18]. Industry Comparison - Prosperity Bancshares is part of the Zacks Banks - Southwest industry, with Texas Capital (TCBI) reporting a year-over-year revenue increase of 15.4% in its latest quarter [19].