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SMIC (0981.HK)+13% ~ +15% QoQ for 3Q24 revenues, GM guidance higher than expected; 1Q24 beat on GM; Neutral
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 08:01
Investment Rating - The investment rating for SMIC is Neutral [2][6][8] Core Insights - SMIC is the largest foundry in China, covering technology from 0.35um to 14nm process nodes, with a diverse application range including smartphones and consumer electronics [6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 13% to 15% quarter-over-quarter for Q3 2024, with a gross margin guidance of 18% to 20%, indicating a faster recovery than anticipated [2][6] - Despite positive long-term growth prospects driven by local fabless customers, short-term profit growth is expected to be slow due to industry down-cycle and weak demand from smartphones and consumer electronics, which constitute about 50% of SMIC's revenue [6][7] Revenue and Margin Guidance - Q3 2024 revenue is projected to be between US$2,148 million and US$2,186 million, exceeding previous estimates [2][3] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 is expected to improve to 18% to 20%, compared to 13.9% in Q2 2024, which is higher than previous estimates [2][3] Recent Performance - In Q2 2024, SMIC reported revenues of US$1.9 billion, a 9% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 22% increase year-over-year, slightly above guidance [3][5] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 13.9%, significantly higher than the guidance of 9% to 11% and previous estimates [3][5] Financial Metrics - The company’s operating income for Q2 2024 was US$87 million, with a net profit of US$165 million, reflecting a 129% increase quarter-over-quarter [3][5] - Capacity increased to 837.0k wpm by Q2 2024, with utilization rates improving to 85.2% [3][5] Price Target - The 12-month target price for SMIC's H-share is set at HK$21.40, based on a P/E ratio of 26x for 2025 estimates [7][8] - The A-share target price is set at Rmb53.70, reflecting a 273% premium over the H-share target price [7][8]
GS SUSTAIN: Circular Economy Our Circular Economy Ecosystem Expands in 2024
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 08:01
_ 8 August 2024 | 5:00PM BST | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | GS SUSTAIN: Circular Economy Our Circular Economy Ecosyste ...
The Global Point
CITI· 2024-08-12 08:01
Point | The Global Point Asia DBS Group (DBSM.SI) - 2Q24 beat on NII/fees, DPS S$0.54 flat; higher 2024 guidance offers some relief before focusing on 2025 guidance DBS reported PBT S$3,219m, in-line with Citi (S$3,206) but 6% ahead of consensus (S$3,047) driven by higher NII +3%qoq and fees income stable qoq. 2Q24 quarterly DPS S$0.54 as we had expected. Key positive extended from OCBC results was better asset quality sequentially; NPL ratio stable on lower absolute NPA. Outlook: Mgmt. cautiously optimisti ...
Market estimates and forecasts
Apollo Reports· 2024-08-12 07:32
Asia-Pacific Space Mining Market MM P a g e | 1 Copyright © 2021 Apollo Reports www.apollorr.com Market estimates and forecasts Asia-Pacific Space Mining Market Table of Contents | --- | |--------------------| | About Us | | 1.1Our Expertise . | Disclaimer Policy . 1.3License 1.2 1.3.1 Single User License . 1.3.2 Multi-User License Corporate User License 1.3.3 2 Research Methodology 2.1 Hypothesis through Desk Research and Internal Repository ................................................................ ...
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI.US): F4Q24 review,Gross margin weakness offsets better revenue outlook
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 07:27
7 August 2024 | 3:15AM EDT Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI): F4Q24 review: Gross margin weakness offsets better revenue outlook SMCI's F4Q24 EPS missed ($6.25 v. $7.62-$8.42 guidance) as in-line revenue of $5.3 bn (v. $5.1-$5.5 bn guidance) was more than offset by a gross margin miss at 11.3% (v. consensus 14.2%). Weaker than expected gross margins of 11.3% were impacted by SMCI's focus on strategic new design wins with competitive pricing to win market share, customer mix (e.g., emerging hyperscalers) and ...
What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: US recession fears likely overblown, market volatility, Europe/China economic weakness
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 07:27
For the exclusive use of VIPS@RISKMACRO.COM 9a0c3bf0514c11deab0a0014c2408514 What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: US recession fears likely overblown, market volatility, Europe/China economic weakness 7 August 2024 | 4:39PM EDT This week: n US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown n Markets: bad news is bad news n Europe and China: a weaker economic picture, too Transcript US: weaker data, but recession fears likely overblown We raised our 12m US recession odds by 10pp to 25% and now expect a ...
China:Import growth surprised to the upside in July
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 07:27
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for imports with a score of +3, while exports received a score of 0, reflecting weaker performance [2]. Core Insights - China's export value growth was 7.0% year-over-year in July, which was below expectations, while import value growth was 7.2%, exceeding consensus forecasts [3][5]. - The trade surplus decreased to US$84.6 billion in July from US$99 billion in June, indicating a decline in export performance [5][9]. - Import strength was attributed to more working days in July this year compared to last year, contributing to a sequential growth of 4.0% in imports [5][6]. Summary by Category Export Performance - Year-over-year export growth moderated to 7.0% in July from 8.6% in June, with a sequential decline of 2.0% non-annualized [3][5]. - Exports to major trading partners showed mixed results, with exports to the US rising by 8.1% year-over-year and to the EU by 8.0% [6][10]. - Tech-related products, such as chips and automobiles, saw notable growth, with chip exports increasing by 27.7% year-over-year [7][11]. Import Performance - Import growth accelerated significantly to 7.2% year-over-year in July, compared to a decline of 2.3% in June, with a sequential increase of 4.0% [3][5]. - The most significant increases in imports were seen in automobiles, which rose by 17.3% year-over-year, and chips, which increased by 14.9% [8][12]. - Import value rose across major trading partners, with notable improvements from the US and EU [6][11].
US Autos & Industrial Tech:2Q24 earnings recap, and thoughts on end market trends
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 07:27
8 August 2024 | 5:50AM EDT _ US Autos & Industrial Tech 2Q24 earnings recap, and thoughts on end market trends Coming out of 2Q24 earnings season, Street estimates on average moved lower for companies more tied to the auto end market (especially EV OEMs and auto suppliers), while estimates were generally revised up for companies with higher exposure to the datacenter market. In this note we show changes in Street consensus estimates and stock moves post earnings, as well as analyze end market demand trends ...
China Tower Corp. (0788.HK): 1H24 net profit largely in line; first interim dividend announced and a turnaround in FCF; Neutral
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 07:27
8 August 2024 | 12:50PM CST _ China Tower Corp. (0788.HK): 1H24 net profit largely in line; first interim dividend announced and a turnaround in FCF; Neutral We see encouraging signs from 1H24 results, including: 1) the announcement of an interim dividend for the first time; 2) a turnaround in free cash flow as previously guided; 3) a net debt decline resulting from cash flow improvements; and 4) net profit is largely in line. Additionally, management provided a more detailed guidance for 2024, including: 1 ...
Kweichow Moutai (600519): 2Q24 in line vs. GSe: Strong customer advance, Series Spirits sales; 75%+ div payout aim in 2024~26; Buy
Goldman Sachs· 2024-08-12 07:27
Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Kweichow Moutai with a 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 [3][4] Core Investment Thesis - Kweichow Moutai is the largest player in the China spirits industry with a 20% value share in 2022 [3] - The company benefits from strong fundamentals, high visibility, and upside from channel reforms [3] - Near-term earnings drivers include wholesale and direct sales growth, product portfolio enhancement, and price hikes [3] - Long-term growth is supported by supply-demand gap, market-driven pricing system, and growth of Moutai-flavor spirits [3] Financial Performance and Estimates - 2Q24 revenue was Rmb37.0bn, up 17% YoY, with net profit of Rmb17.6bn, up 16.1% YoY [35][55] - Moutai Spirits revenue grew 13% YoY to Rmb28.9bn, while Series spirits revenue accelerated to 43% YoY at Rmb7.2bn [35][36] - i-Moutai generated Rmb4.91bn in spirits sales in 2Q24, up 11% YoY, exceeding expectations [55] - The company aims for a 75% dividend payout ratio for 2024-26, implying total shareholder return of Rmb219bn [56] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month price target of Rmb2,098 is based on a 29.4x 2026E P/E, discounted back to 2024E year-end using a 9.8% CoE [4] - The target P/E includes a 40% premium for Moutai's leading position in China's spirits industry and strong returns profile [4] - Moutai is trading at 21x/18x 2024E/2025E P/Es with a 12% earnings CAGR in 2024E-26E [63] Product and Channel Performance - Wholesale channel sales grew 27% YoY in 2Q24, supported by a price hike in November 2023 [55] - Direct sales grew 6% YoY in 2Q24, contributing 40% of total spirits sales [55][59] - i-Moutai contributed 14% of total sales in 2Q24, with 531k bottles released in July, down 60% YoY [60] Market Trends and Pricing - Feitian Moutai's wholesale price increased by Rmb180 for original case and Rmb130 for unpacked bottles in July [78] - Channel inventory stands below 1 month, with shipments expected to increase for the Mid-Autumn Festival [78] - Non-standard SKUs like Jingpin and Zodiac Moutai maintain decent channel profitability [79] Production and Supply - Base spirits production volume declined YoY in 1H24, with Moutai base spirits down 12.3% and Series base spirits down 5.4% [60] - The company has implemented active shipment controls, particularly for Moutai 1935 and Zodiac (500ml) [60]