h 股 c r a 票 e s e R 研 y [Table_Title] Teddy Lin 林荣叶 tiu Company Report: Autohome-S (02518 HK) 究 q (852) 2509 5409 E 公司报告： 汽车之家-S (02518 HK) rongye.lin@gtjas.com.hk 29 February 2024 E[Tmablpe_oSwumemrianryg] the New Retail Ecosystem in the Auto Industry, Navigating the Path to New Energy Sustainability tr 公 o p e 司 R  W HKe 6m 7a .0in 8t a ri en r" eB su eny" ni gn v 1e 4s .5tm e 2n 02t 4r Pat /i En .g ua tn od mre ev 'sis 2e 2o 3u r vta er ng ue et rop sr eic 3e 5t %o 报 y n a $ , p ti x A ho 0 re . [RTaabt ...

Market Trends and Valuations - Nvidia's market cap has grown similarly to Cisco during the tech bubble, with a rapid increase reaching 100% of its peak value[1] - Nvidia's two-year forward P/E ratio is around 27, significantly lower than Cisco's 100 during the tech bubble, indicating more grounded near-term earnings prospects[2][17] - The Mag-7 (Magnificent 7) companies have driven over 80% of the gains in US equities since January 2023, now constituting over 25% of the S&P 500 market cap[15] Earnings and Growth Projections - The Mag-7 is discounting very high earnings growth, with projected earnings growth rates significantly elevated compared to historical averages[5][10] - Nvidia's earnings have grown significantly alongside its market cap, with actual orders validating continued growth expectations[17] Bubble Indicators and Sentiment - The current US equity market bubble gauge is at the 73rd percentile, suggesting elevated but not bubbly conditions[19] - Retail trading activity is at the 55th percentile, higher than typical but not excessively concerning[25] - Sentiment around AI is bullish, with over 35% of recent earnings calls mentioning AI, reflecting high expectations for growth[48][64] Leverage and Speculative Activity - Household margin debt has declined meaningfully from COVID-era peaks and is now near 10-year lows, indicating healthier leverage conditions[53][54] - Options activity in the Mag-7 is not excessively elevated, with turnover as a share of market cap not indicating a speculative frenzy[50][58] Forward Purchases and Capex - Forward purchases for the Mag-7 look frothy, with companies investing significantly in capex and R&D, reaching all-time highs as a share of GDP and sales[79][84][90]

Investment Rating - Maintain BUY rating for BeiGene, indicating strong potential for over 15% return in the next 12 months [2][4]. Core Insights - BeiGene is expected to have a productive 2024, driven by strong sales momentum of zanubrutinib, which recorded total product sales of US$631 million in 4Q23, reflecting a 6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 86% year-over-year (YoY) increase [2]. - Zanubrutinib's sales reached US$1.29 billion in full-year 2023, with a forecast of US$1.9 billion for 2024, representing a 46% YoY growth [2]. - The company is advancing its pipeline with potential blockbusters like sonrotoclax and BGB-16673, with multiple Phase 3 studies expected to start in 2024 [2]. - BeiGene's financial health is improving, with a gross profit margin of 82.7% in FY23, up from 77.2% in FY22, and a significant reduction in the SG&A ratio [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for FY23 was US$2.459 billion, with a projected increase to US$2.902 billion in FY24 [3][17]. - Net loss for FY23 was US$882 million, expected to decrease to US$1.1 billion in FY24 and further to US$225 million in FY25, with profitability anticipated from FY26 [2][3]. - The company had US$2.3 billion in net cash at the end of 2023, indicating no immediate need for further equity financing [2]. Target Price - The target price for BeiGene has been revised from US$295.67 to US$268.20, indicating a 67% upside potential from the current price of US$160.26 [4].

M N 28 Feb 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update ZTE (763 HK) MWC 2024: Industry moves towards developing 6G Target Price HK$27.4 As the Mobile World Congress (MWC) unfolded in Barcelona on Monday, AI/5G+6G innovations emerged as a dominant theme, with leading suppliers in (Previous TP HK$27.4) the telecom industry showcasing their latest technologies. ZTE's A-share Up/Downside 56.2% (000063 CH) and H-share (763 HK) prices surged by 10.0% and 10.6%, Current Price HK$17.54 ...

M N 28 Feb 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Shengyi Tech (600183 CH) FY23 preliminary results review; expect gradual recovery in 2024 Target Price RMB19.69 Shengyi Tech unveiled its FY23 earnings preview after Tuesday's market close. Full-year revenue was RMB16.6bn (-7.9% YoY) and net profit was RMB1.16bn (- (Previous TP RMB20.39) 24.0% YoY), which were 3%/13% and 3%/9% lower than our/consensus estimates, Up/Downside 15.1% respectively. For 4Q23, revenue decreased 2.3 ...

M N 27 Feb 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Auto Inc. (LI US) 4Q23 results set the tone for resilient FY24 Target Price US$48.00 Maintain our top pick. Li Auto’s strong beat in 4Q23 GPM led to an all-time (Previous TP US$45.00) high operating margin of 7.3%. Its FY23 net margin of 9.5% was also much Up/Downside 37.9% higher than its guidance of 5% in mid-2023. Management has also provided a Current Price US$34.80 clear path to achieve its FY24 sales target and is s ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for Pentamaster (01665.HK) with a target price of HK$ 1.18, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HK$ 0.82 [1][7]. Core Insights - The medical segment of Pentamaster has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 75.2% to MYR 148.2 million, contributing to a gross margin surge to 31.9% in Q4 [1]. - The overall revenue for FY 2023 reached MYR 691.9 million, marking a 15.2% growth, while the net profit increased by 6.7% [1][7]. - The automotive segment remains a key contributor, accounting for 47.6% of total revenue, although it has faced order delays impacting momentum [1][7]. - The report anticipates sustained robust performance in the medical segment for at least the next two years, driven by strong order visibility from key customers [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: MYR 813.0 million in 2024, MYR 960.7 million in 2025, and MYR 1,047.5 million in 2026, indicating a growth trajectory [1][11]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from MYR 209.6 million in 2023 to MYR 336.8 million by 2026, with gross margins improving from 30.3% to 32.1% over the same period [1][11]. - Net profit is projected to grow from MYR 142.2 million in 2024 to MYR 225.2 million in 2026, reflecting a consistent upward trend [1][11]. Segment Analysis - The medical segment is highlighted as a primary driver for future growth, while the automotive segment is experiencing temporary setbacks due to market fluctuations [1][7]. - The semiconductor segment has shown stable growth, but the electro-optical segment is expected to remain weak due to stagnation in the smartphone market [1][7]. Operational Developments - The operational timeline for Campus 3 has been adjusted, with full operations expected to commence in Q1 2025, and production starting in Q3 2024 [1][7].

Economic and Geopolitical Trends - The global economic order is shifting, with China and the US leading in cutting-edge industries while traditional markets like Europe are declining in importance[4] - China's global export share has increased significantly, particularly in automobiles and industrial machinery, indicating its competitive stance against the US and Europe[5] - The US-China conflict remains a high-risk area, with potential for economic and military tensions, especially surrounding the Taiwan elections and the 2024 US elections[21][27] Internal and External Conflicts - The internal conflict in the US is at a critical stage, with a 50% estimated risk of civil war over the next decade, making 2024 a pivotal year[19][51] - Political polarization is intensifying, with extreme actions and a lack of respect for democratic processes observed, which could disrupt the existing order[15][53] - External conflicts, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas situation, are also present, but there is a 70% chance they will not escalate into broader conflicts[28] Climate Change and Technological Impact - Climate change is expected to have significant economic impacts, with more investments directed towards adaptation rather than prevention, driven by the need for profitable solutions[7] - The force of human inventiveness, particularly through advancements in technology like AI, is projected to boost productivity and living standards, making 2024 a crucial year for technological development[9][8] Economic Outlook for 2024 - Inflation is expected to be about 1% higher than current estimates, with growth slowing as the effects of previous fiscal stimuli wane[48] - The current market pricing reflects a "Goldilocks economy," but actual economic conditions may not align with these optimistic projections[47][48] - The interplay of internal and external conflicts, along with climate and technological forces, will significantly influence market dynamics and economic stability in 2024[49]

As you know, I believe that there are five big, interrelated forces that are driving, and always did drive, big changes in the world order, and they are: 2. the internal conflict force that is most obviously manifested in political conflict, 4. acts of nature that are most obviously manifested in climate change, and My Synthesis of the Climate Change Picture Since I recently spent 12 days at the COP28 meeting and thought a lot about the climate change issue, though my main area of focus is the ocean (www.oc ...

happened, most importantly the huge number of deals, partnerships, and other kinds of collaboration among the participants. There were an estimated 70,000 people from across the world's nations who shared deep interests and had deep expertise in all the imaginable dimensions of the natural health of the planet collaborating on things to do together in pursuit of it. COP28 was like a giant smorgasbord of people passionate about addressing the climate issue that was very inspiring and productive. I believe th ...