Investment Rating - The report indicates that the company is expected to achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2027, with significant advancements anticipated in the near future [30][32]. Core Insights - The company has started training a 125 trillion parameter multimodal model, originally planned for release in 2025, but the launch was canceled due to high inference costs [31]. - The training of GPT-5 was completed in December 2023, achieving a proto AGI with an IQ of 48 [30][33]. - The report discusses the correlation between the number of parameters in AI models and their performance, suggesting that a model with around 100 trillion parameters could match human-level intelligence [6][9]. Summary by Sections Model Development - The company has been working on a model with 125 trillion parameters, which is significantly larger than previous models like GPT-3 and GPT-4 [31][32]. - The original GPT-5 was planned for release in 2025 but has been renamed due to the cancellation of its launch [31]. Performance Metrics - The report highlights that the performance of AI models tends to reach human-level capabilities when the parameter count approaches that of the human brain, estimated at around 100 trillion synapses [6][9]. - The training of GPT-4 was completed with a parameter count of 1 trillion, while the full model is expected to be much larger [99][101]. Future Projections - The company aims to achieve full AGI by 2027, with various stages of model development planned leading up to that date [30][32]. - The report suggests that the advancements in AI capabilities are driven by increased computing power and data availability, which have been significantly enhanced in recent years [39][40].

M N 1 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Salesforce (CRM US) 4Q results in-line; eye on AI development Target Price US$350.00 Salesforce reported 4QFY24 financial results: total revenue was up 10.8% YoY (Previous TP US$329.30) to US$9.29bn, in line with consensus estimate of US$9.22bn. FY24 total revenue Up/Downside 16.8% was up 11.2% YoY to US$34.9bn. Non-GAAP operating income grew by 19.3% Current Price US$299.77 YoY to US$2.92bn in 4QFY24, also in line with conse ...

29 Feb 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update iQIYI (IQ US) Improving profitability with solid guidance iQIYI (IQ) delivered better-than-feared 4Q23 results with inline topline and upbeat margin. Looking into 1Q24E, we expect both revenue and earnings to see sequential growth, with solid ARM trend. We keep confident on IQ's previous FY24E OP target (at RMB5bn), with disciplined content cost and ARM expansion. Given already-low expectation and clear profitab ...

M N 1 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) 4Q23 a slight miss; S. Korea undershoot Target Price HK$14.5 Stripping off mainly the US$66mn tax provision, Bud APAC 4Q results came in (Previous TP HK$16.9) c.3%/6% below us/consensus. Operations in South Korea (esp. home channel) Up/Downside 14.2% looked increasingly challenging upon the return of Japanese brands, with Current Price HK$12.7 volume consecutively edging down by MSD% since 3Q23 (1H23: ...

M N 4 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Cloud Music (9899 HK) Solid core music business and margin expansion outlook Target Price HK$106.50 Cloud Music announced FY23 financial results: total revenue dropped by 13% (Previous TP HK$99.50) YoY to RMB7.87bn in FY23, in line with our/consensus estimate. 2H23 total Up/Downside 17.7% revenue was down by 16% YoY to RMB3.96bn, mainly due to the adjustment of Current Price HK$90.45 social entertainment business (-42% YoY). ...

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update NetEase reported 4Q23 financial results on 29 Feb: total revenue grew by 7% YoY to RMB27.1bn, below our/consensus estimate of RMB28.8/28.2bn. NonGAAP net income was up by 53% YoY to RMB7.4bn, but 7% shy of consensus estimate, mainly due to the higher-than-expected marketing expenses (+24% YoY). Full-year total revenue/non-GAAP net income grew by 7%/43% YoY in FY23 respectively. Game revenue growth was slower than our expectation due to soft ...

M N 1 Mar 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Hutchmed (13 HK) A fruitful 2024 on the way Including US$312mn upfront and milestone payments from Takeda, HCM’s consolidated Target Price HK$34.31 revenues from oncology/immunology reached US$529mn in FY23 (vs US$164mn in (Previous TP HK$36.67) FY22), close to the upper limit of its US$450-550mn guidance. The in-market product Up/Downside 41.8% sales increased 28% YoY (35% at CER) to US$214mn in FY23, among which sales of Cu ...

h 股 c r a 票 e s e R 研 y [Table_Title] Kevin Guo 郭勇 tiu Company Report: Zhaojin Mining (01818 HK) 究 q (852) 2509 5317 E 公司报告： 招金矿业 (01818 HK) yong.guo@gtjas.com.hk 29 February 2024 [Table_Summary] Gold Price To Rise Again, Maintain "Buy" tr 公 o p  W due re tov is loe d eo rw En th Se eT sP mof Z tih oa no ji bn M i mni an ig t( at ih ne t“ hC eo m inp va en sty m”) t no H raK t$ in1 g2 .0 a6 e [RTaabtlien_gR:a nk] Buy 司 R e w P ti a , u t n e t t y Maintained 报 n "Buy". Our TP represents 36.0x 2023 PER and ...

h 股 c r a 票 e s e R 研 y [Table_Title] Teddy Lin 林荣叶 tiu Company Report: Autohome-S (02518 HK) 究 q (852) 2509 5409 E 公司报告： 汽车之家-S (02518 HK) rongye.lin@gtjas.com.hk 29 February 2024 E[Tmablpe_oSwumemrianryg] the New Retail Ecosystem in the Auto Industry, Navigating the Path to New Energy Sustainability tr 公 o p e 司 R  W HKe 6m 7a .0in 8t a ri en r" eB su eny" ni gn v 1e 4s .5tm e 2n 02t 4r Pat /i En .g ua tn od mre ev 'sis 2e 2o 3u r vta er ng ue et rop sr eic 3e 5t %o 报 y n a $ , p ti x A ho 0 re . [RTaabt ...

Market Trends and Valuations - Nvidia's market cap has grown similarly to Cisco during the tech bubble, with a rapid increase reaching 100% of its peak value[1] - Nvidia's two-year forward P/E ratio is around 27, significantly lower than Cisco's 100 during the tech bubble, indicating more grounded near-term earnings prospects[2][17] - The Mag-7 (Magnificent 7) companies have driven over 80% of the gains in US equities since January 2023, now constituting over 25% of the S&P 500 market cap[15] Earnings and Growth Projections - The Mag-7 is discounting very high earnings growth, with projected earnings growth rates significantly elevated compared to historical averages[5][10] - Nvidia's earnings have grown significantly alongside its market cap, with actual orders validating continued growth expectations[17] Bubble Indicators and Sentiment - The current US equity market bubble gauge is at the 73rd percentile, suggesting elevated but not bubbly conditions[19] - Retail trading activity is at the 55th percentile, higher than typical but not excessively concerning[25] - Sentiment around AI is bullish, with over 35% of recent earnings calls mentioning AI, reflecting high expectations for growth[48][64] Leverage and Speculative Activity - Household margin debt has declined meaningfully from COVID-era peaks and is now near 10-year lows, indicating healthier leverage conditions[53][54] - Options activity in the Mag-7 is not excessively elevated, with turnover as a share of market cap not indicating a speculative frenzy[50][58] Forward Purchases and Capex - Forward purchases for the Mag-7 look frothy, with companies investing significantly in capex and R&D, reaching all-time highs as a share of GDP and sales[79][84][90]