Public Disclosure Authorized Issue #2 | February 2025 Summary: The Red Sea crisis has emerged as a critical flashpoint of the conflict in the Middle East, upending global trade and maritime transport, port activity in the MENA region, and ecological balance of the Red Sea. By end-2024, about a year after the onset of the crisis, vessel traffic through the strategic Suez Canal and Bab El-Mandeb Strait—which used to carry 30 percent of world container traffic—had plummeted by three-fourths, forcing ships to d ...

Approach Paper Indonesia Country Program Evaluation January 15, 2025 1. Evaluation Purpose and Audience 1.1 This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the performance of the World Bank Group's support to Indonesia between FY 2013 and FY23. The evaluation will focus on the Bank Group's contribution to help Indonesia tackle key long-term development challenges and position the country toward its goal of reaching high- income status by 2045. The evaluation period spans three country strategies—the FY13– ...

Approach Paper An Evaluation of the World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020–25 January 14, 2025 1. Background and Context 1.1 Fragility, conflicts, and displacement have increased over the past decade. Geopolitical tensions and risks are at their highest in decades. Within this complex and rapidly changing context, the global fragility landscape has worsened significantly. The world has been experiencing a record number of violent conflicts since 1946 (figure 1.1), and conflicts ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The study investigates the impact of corporate tax incentives, specifically focusing on the phasing out of a significant income tax exemption for export-oriented firms in Tunisia, revealing that the reform led to a 20% decline in the entry of new offshore firms without affecting employment, revenue, or wage bills of existing firms [4][15][19] - The findings challenge the conventional belief that tax incentives are crucial for attracting investments, suggesting that other factors may play a more significant role in economic activity [4][20][24] Summary by Sections Introduction - Tax incentives are widely used to attract investment, with 87% of surveyed developing economies having at least one type of corporate income tax exemption [9] - In 2021, tax relief schemes accounted for 1.4% of global GDP and 7.8% of global tax revenues [9] Institutional Context and Policy Background - Tunisia's offshore regime provided significant tax benefits, costing up to 6.8% of GDP in foregone tax revenues in 2013 [27][28] - The 2014 corporate tax reform aimed to harmonize tax treatment between offshore and onshore firms, raising the CIT rate for offshore firms from 0% to 10% [29][33] Data and Descriptive Statistics - The analysis uses administrative records from Tunisian registered firms, focusing on approximately 198,000 firms, with 22,660 classified as offshore [40][42] - Offshore firms represent about 20% of total firms but account for a disproportionate share of economic activity, particularly in manufacturing [52] Empirical Strategy - A differences-in-differences approach is employed to assess the impact of the CIT reform, comparing outcomes of offshore and onshore firms before and after the reform [58][59] Effects of the 2014 Offshore Tax Reform - The number of offshore firms grew at a slower rate post-reform, with a significant drop in new entrants, while the onshore sector continued to expand [66][68] - Despite the decline in the number of offshore firms, there was no significant decrease in aggregate economic activity, as existing firms maintained their performance [70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Sell rating on TUHU Car Inc [6][87]. Core Insights - The Q424 data indicates that TUHU and JD Auto accelerated store expansion, particularly in high-tier cities, while Tmall Auto's store count in tier-4 cities decreased, suggesting declining profitability for franchisees [2][3]. - Competition among TUHU, Tmall Auto, and JD Auto has intensified, with significant overlap in store locations, leading to limited differentiation and weaker marginal benefits from new store openings [4][5]. - The report highlights that over 85% of JD Auto and TUHU stores compete with themselves within a 15-minute drive, indicating increasing cannibalization [5][41]. Summary by Sections Store Footprint - TUHU leads with approximately 6,600 stores, followed by Tmall Auto with around 2,100 and JD Auto with about 1,900 stores. The expansion in Q424 saw JD Auto and TUHU adding over 210 and 160 stores respectively, while Tmall Auto only added 35 stores [3][10]. - The majority of new store openings (over 60%) were concentrated in tier-1 and tier-2 cities, with a notable decline in Tmall Auto's presence in tier-4 cities due to economic pressures [18][19]. Competition - The report notes a significant overlap in store locations, with an average of 4.6 JD Auto and Tmall Auto stores reachable within a 15-minute drive from a TUHU store, indicating high competition [4][22]. - Nearly 65% of TUHU stores compete with at least one JD Auto store within a 15-minute drive, reflecting the competitive landscape in high-tier cities [37][38]. Cannibalization - The cannibalization share for JD Auto and TUHU stores is over 85%, with the number of competing stores increasing significantly in Q424, suggesting that new store openings are not yielding the expected benefits [5][43]. - The report indicates that the internal competition is intensifying, with the number of stores competing with another store of the same brand increasing close to or outpacing net store additions [5][43]. Stock Implications - The report suggests that TUHU's pace of store openings is likely to slow down, which may negatively impact its topline growth and margin expansion [6].

Investment Rating - Alphabet Inc. (Google) has a Neutral rating with a stock price of US$192.80 as of February 4, 2025 [24] - Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) has a Buy rating with a stock price of US$119.50 as of February 4, 2025 [24] Core Insights - Google's Q424 revenue grew 12% YoY to US$96.5 billion, slightly below the expected US$96.7 billion, with Google Cloud revenue growth decelerating from +35% YoY to +30% YoY due to supply constraints [3][4] - Google's capital expenditures (capex) for Q424 were US$14.3 billion, a 30% YoY increase, and the full-year 2024 capex is projected at US$52.5 billion, up 63% YoY [3][4] - AMD's Q424 revenue increased 12% QoQ and 24% YoY to US$7.7 billion, driven by strong performance in server and PC CPUs, while guidance for Q125 sales is US$7.1 billion, reflecting a 30% YoY increase [6][7] Summary by Sections Google - Q424 results were impacted by cloud constraints, with Google Cloud revenue at US$12.0 billion, 2 points below expectations [3] - AI initiatives include significant increases in compute capacity and strong uptake of TPU v6 on 5nm technology [3] - Capex guidance for Q125 is set between US$16-18 billion, with a full-year 2025 capex expected to exceed US$75 billion, a 43% YoY increase [3][4] AMD - Q424 performance was led by server and PC segments, with data center revenue at US$3.9 billion, a 69% YoY increase [6][7] - Guidance for Q125 indicates a seasonal decline but still shows a healthy YoY growth outlook [6][7] - AMD's inventory increased by 7% QoQ to US$5.7 billion, with a reduction in inventory days from 155 to 149 [7] Hardware Supply Chain - Google's capex outlook supports strong AI server growth for hardware suppliers in Taiwan, with significant contributions from companies like Celestica and Quanta [4] - AMD's reliance on TSMC for its manufacturing needs remains strong, with expectations for continued growth in its GPU product lines [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the North China region, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, with strong demand and rising rental prices in key cities [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The North China region's economy is stable with growth, particularly in Beijing, Tianjin, and Xi'an, where GDP growth rates exceed the national average [9][10]. - The demand for Grade A office space remains robust across the six cities in North China, with significant absorption rates and rental increases noted in Beijing and Tianjin [11][12]. - The retail market shows steady growth, with a stable rental environment despite increased competition from new supply in major cities [49][53]. - The residential market is active, with varying trends in price and volume across different cities, indicating a complex landscape influenced by local policies and market conditions [86][95]. Economic Overview - The GDP of Beijing reached 1,376.62 billion RMB (226.05 billion USD) in Q3 2013, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [9][10]. - Tianjin and Xi'an reported higher GDP growth rates of 12.6% and 11.5%, respectively, indicating strong economic performance [9][10]. Office Market - The average rental price for Grade A office space in Beijing increased to 298.9 RMB (49.1 USD) per square meter, reflecting a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter rise [11][12]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices in Beijing is low at 2.6%, with significant demand from domestic enterprises [18][19]. - In Tianjin, the average rental price for Grade A offices is 120.8 RMB (19.8 USD) per square meter, with a slight increase due to strong demand [24][25]. Retail Market - The retail market in North China is characterized by stable growth, with a year-on-year increase in social retail sales of around 10% [49][53]. - Beijing's retail market saw the introduction of several new shopping centers, contributing to a total retail space of 7,119,400 square meters [53][58]. - The average occupancy rate for new retail projects is above 80%, indicating strong initial performance [54]. Residential Market - The residential market in Beijing experienced a decline in transaction volume but an increase in prices, with average prices reaching 52,129 RMB (8,559.8 USD) per square meter [88][89]. - In Tianjin, the average transaction price for new residential properties rose to 14,495 RMB (2,380 USD) per square meter, reflecting a 5.5% increase [95][96]. - The residential market in Xi'an showed a decrease in transaction volume but maintained stable prices, with an average price of 7,192 RMB (1,181 USD) per square meter [121][122]. Investment Market - The investment market in Beijing remained active, with 43 transactions completed in Q4 2013, reflecting a 10.3% increase from the previous quarter [130][131]. - The total transaction value reached 50.74 billion RMB (8.33 billion USD), with a significant portion attributed to land transactions [130][131]. - The report anticipates continued interest from domestic and foreign investors in Beijing's real estate market, particularly in residential land [131][132].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on the North Asia real estate market, highlighting Tokyo as a leading market, with Shanghai and Tianjin also showing strong potential for growth in the coming years [4][54]. Core Insights - The North Asia market is becoming a focal point for investors due to its high risks and potential returns, with long-term low interest rates benefiting tenants and investors alike [3][5]. - Tokyo ranks first in the North Asia leasing market and investment market, with Shanghai and Tianjin following closely [4][54]. - The report anticipates that by 2017, Shanghai will rise to the top of both the global and North Asia rankings, driven by high vacancy rates and new supply [4][54]. Summary by Sections Global Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow, with the US economy recovering and the Federal Reserve ending its quantitative easing policy [10]. - Despite some downwards risks, long-term low interest rates have allowed tenants and investors to benefit significantly [5][11]. Regional Outlook - Tokyo leads the North Asia leasing market, with Shanghai and Tianjin following, while the future supply of office space in China is expected to exceed current stock [54][56]. - The average rental cost per workstation in North Asia is projected to reach $7,490 by the end of 2017, with significant downward pressure on rents in secondary cities due to new supply [56]. Leasing Market Assessment - The report identifies key factors influencing tenant decisions, including market entry potential, market supply, and investment returns [22][25]. - Mumbai, Tokyo, and Los Angeles are highlighted as the most attractive cities for tenants globally, with Mumbai's high score attributed to its industrial base and low rental prices [28][75]. Investment Market Assessment - The investment market remains attractive in Tokyo, Shanghai, and Beijing, with these markets being undervalued [63][64]. - The industrial market in China is increasingly viewed as a prime investment opportunity due to stable income growth and the rise of e-commerce [65][66]. Future Projections - By 2017, Shanghai is expected to lead the rankings in the Asia-Pacific region, with significant growth in industrial and high-tech sectors [73][74]. - The report emphasizes the shift in focus from traditional manufacturing to high-tech and high-value industries in Chinese cities [74].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Hong Kong Grade A office market, particularly highlighting the rise of Kowloon East as a second core business district [1]. Core Insights - The total stock of Grade A office space in Hong Kong has increased by 31.3% over the past 15 years, from 60.3 million square feet to 79.2 million square feet, with the number of buildings rising from 139 to 183 [1][2]. - Kowloon East has become increasingly attractive to tenants and investors, accounting for approximately 58.7% of the investment amount in Hong Kong's five office districts in 2014 [1][2]. - The ownership structure of Grade A offices is predominantly local, with 71.6% owned by local participants as of 2014 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Ownership Analysis - The report analyzes 183 Grade A office properties, focusing on the types and nationalities of owners [2]. - Local owners dominate the market, with 71.4% of owners being from Hong Kong, while overseas ownership has significantly decreased [42][43]. Current Market Status - As of 2014, the overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices in Hong Kong is 5.5%, with 59% of the properties owned by listed developers [8][33]. - Kowloon East has the highest percentage of dispersed ownership at approximately 32.4% [3][4]. Transaction Volume - The investment market has been influenced by global and local economic factors, with significant fluctuations during crises such as SARS and the global financial crisis [9][10]. - From 2003 to 2014, corporate buyers accounted for 63.4% of total investment, driven by rising rental costs [14][15]. Stock Growth - The supply of Grade A offices has been limited due to land constraints, with only 18.96 million square feet added from 2000 to 2014, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 1.84% [18][19]. - Kowloon East's share of the total Grade A office stock increased from 5.7% in 2000 to 17.0% in 2014 [19][20]. Age and Concentration - The average age of Grade A offices in core areas like Central is 23.8 years, with limited redevelopment due to high costs [26][27]. - Kowloon East has the lowest average age of office properties, indicating its recent development [27][28]. Listed Developers' Holdings - The top 10 listed developers own 49.1% of the total Grade A office space, with Swire Properties holding the largest share at 11.5% [33][34]. - The average age of properties held by major developers varies, with some properties dating back to the 1960s [34][35]. Ownership Changes - The report notes a shift in ownership dynamics, with local developers retaining properties while overseas investors are selling off holdings due to lower returns [42][43]. - The rise of corporate ownership in Grade A offices reflects a trend towards self-use to mitigate rental costs [51][52]. Kowloon East's Rise - Kowloon East is projected to surpass Central as Hong Kong's largest business district in the coming years, driven by significant investment and development [59][60]. - The area's infrastructure improvements and integration of various districts are expected to enhance its appeal further [60].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The productivity of schooling is maximized when there is a match between a child's skill level and the complexity of the learning experiences offered at school, with mismatches in either direction being detrimental to learning outcomes [10][75] - The relationship between early childhood skill and the productivity of schooling follows an inverted-U shape, indicating that increasing early childhood skill enhances productivity up to a certain point, after which further increases can reduce productivity due to widening mismatches [10][76] Summary by Sections Introduction - The study emphasizes the importance of matching learning experiences to a child's understanding level to enhance learning outcomes, supported by various learning theories [2] Empirical Evidence - The research utilizes longitudinal data from the Young Lives Study, focusing on children from Peru, India, and Vietnam, to analyze the effects of schooling on child skill [8][12] - The findings indicate that the productivity of schooling is influenced by the difference between a child's existing skill and the complexity of the school curriculum [10][19] Methodology - A value-added specification is employed to account for individual-specific effects and to analyze the relationship between child skill and school complexity [9][41] - The study uses a non-linear dynamic panel model to estimate the effects of schooling, allowing for heterogeneity in productivity based on mismatches [9][50] Results - The main results reveal that a 1% increase in schooling can lead to a 0.55% increase in skill, with the productivity of schooling being highest when there is a match between child skill and school complexity [51][55] - The analysis shows that the effect of early childhood skill on schooling productivity is non-monotonic, with positive effects dominating in lower skill quartiles and negative effects in higher quartiles [56][60] Cross-Country Evidence - The study extends its findings to India and Vietnam, confirming similar patterns of heterogeneous effects of schooling based on the mismatch between child skill and school complexity [61][69] Conclusion - The research underscores the necessity of tailoring educational experiences to align with children's skill levels to optimize learning outcomes, providing external validity to existing educational interventions [75][76]