Industry Overview - The Somali private sector accounts for an estimated 95% of total jobs created, with private businesses providing almost all products and services, including traditionally state-delivered services like energy, ICT connectivity, and water [19] - The manufacturing sector represents only 15% of established businesses, generating about 0.8% of total jobs, and is less productive compared to other sectors [19] - Livestock, fishery, and agricultural goods dominate the productive sector, accounting for 26% of employment and 73% of exports, but these sectors are underdeveloped and vulnerable to climate shocks [19][106] Private Sector Challenges - The private sector is concentrated in nontradable sectors, with 69% of rural employment and over 90% of urban employment in retail, petty trading, and other nontradable services [19] - A few large conglomerates dominate key sectors such as finance, ICT, transportation, tourism, energy, real estate, and commerce, leveraging their influence to distort and capture markets [20] - Most firms are small, informal, and necessity-driven, with SMEs accounting for only 6% of established businesses and 2.4% of total employment, leading to low productivity and job generation [21] Enabling Sectors - Access to reliable electricity is low and inequitable, with Somalia ranking in the upper 5% globally for power cost and 15% for power expenditure as a share of gross national income per household [28] - The financial sector has grown significantly, with total assets and customer deposits at commercial banks more than quadrupling between 2018 and 2023, but access to finance for MSMEs remains a key challenge [31][33] - Digital connectivity has improved, with mobile network services becoming more affordable, but broadband penetration and use of bandwidth remain low compared to regional peers [36] Recommendations - Establish legitimate, effective, and equitable formal institutional and regulatory frameworks to enable economic transformation and increase efficiency-seeking FDI [43] - Promote private participation in key enabling sectors such as energy, transport, and education, and improve public stewardship to address service delivery gaps [45] - Improve growth and productivity of selected value chains like livestock, crops, and fisheries to deliver short- to medium-term inclusive dividends and create jobs [45]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the importance of transitioning to a circular economy (CE) in Türkiye, which presents both challenges and opportunities for industries [18][19][20] Core Report Insights - The transition to a circular economy in Türkiye is driven by both environmental sustainability goals and the need to align with the EU's tightening environmental policies, particularly under the EU-Türkiye Customs Union [19][20] - Türkiye's material demand is expected to increase despite improvements in material intensity, with non-metallic minerals dominating the material mix [35][36] - Circular economy policies can support Türkiye's climate mitigation objectives, potentially reducing CO2 emissions by over 7% in 2030 on top of the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario [38][39] - A combination of demand-side and supply-side policies is necessary to achieve circular economy targets, with demand-side measures more effective in reducing non-metallic mineral use and supply-side measures better suited for increasing metal ore recycling [43][44] Macroeconomic Impacts of the CE Transition in Türkiye - Türkiye's economy is projected to see an absolute increase in the use of all material inputs, driven by GDP and population growth, with material intensity declining for all commodities except metal ores [36] - The economic dividend of supporting the CE transition can be reaped by addressing Türkiye's existing skills gap, particularly in high-skilled labor [49] - The costs of implementing CE policies are relatively moderate, with real GDP decreasing by about 1.6% in the combined scenario, but this does not account for co-benefits such as reduced air pollution and improved ecosystem services [47] Positioning Turkish Industry in Circular Global Value Chains - Nearly one-fifth of Turkish firms have adopted resource-efficient production technologies, with higher adoption rates in the garments and textiles sectors compared to fabricated metal products and machinery sectors [55] - Two possible CE futures for Türkiye are outlined: a 'light' transition focusing on material efficiency and recycling, and an 'ambitious' transition involving comprehensive product redesign and higher value-added goods [62] - Factors enabling CE readiness include effective traceability, digital monitoring systems, access to recycled inputs, and technological upgrades [66][67] Prioritizing Industries for Building a Competitive Circular Economy in Türkiye - Strong connections between industries are essential for a successful circular economy, with weak links currently observed between high-potential circular industries and their supporting sectors [80][82] - The analysis identifies six priority value chains for Türkiye's CE transition: iron and steel, aluminum, cement, plastics, fertilizers, and chemicals, with 80 core industries and 75 supporting industries identified [84] - Policies for a competitive CE transition include boosting competition in key industries, strengthening primary and manufacturing industries, and fostering collaboration within the tertiary sector [91][93] Next Steps for Türkiye's CE Transition - Türkiye should focus on enhancing the competitiveness of core industries, fostering the growth of upstream and downstream industries, and promoting investments in key industries that support circularity [96][99][100] - Pilot regulations within vital sectors with strong interrelations are recommended, along with broadening the use of network analysis to bolster monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) objectives [106]

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the future demand for water in France up to 2050, analyzing water withdrawals and consumption across various sectors including agriculture, energy, industry, residential, and navigation canals [15][16][17] - Three scenarios are considered: a "trend" scenario, a "public policies" scenario, and a "rupture" scenario, each with different implications for water usage and consumption [16][17] - The study is conducted at the scale of 40 watersheds in metropolitan France, providing a detailed territorial perspective on water demand [42][44] Water Demand by Sector Agriculture - Irrigation is the largest consumer of water, with significant variations depending on climatic conditions and crop types [130][131][132] - In 2020, water withdrawals for irrigation amounted to 3,540 million m³, with consumption at 3,040 million m³, primarily concentrated during spring and summer months [161] - The trend scenario projects a 50% increase in irrigated agricultural areas by 2050, while the rupture scenario limits this growth to 12% [82][106] Energy - The energy sector, particularly nuclear power plants, accounts for significant water withdrawals, with 13,800 million m³ withdrawn in 2020, but only 500 million m³ consumed [180] - Nuclear plants with open cooling circuits withdraw significantly more water than those with closed circuits, with some plants withdrawing over 200 m³ per MWh produced [178][179] - The public policies scenario envisions a shift towards renewable energy and modernization of cooling systems, reducing water withdrawals [97] Industry and Tertiary - Industrial and tertiary sectors withdrew water primarily for cooling and production processes, with industrial water demand at 441 m³ per employee in 2020 [189] - The public policies scenario includes measures to reduce water usage in industries, such as improved water reuse and efficiency, aiming for a 30% reduction in water withdrawals in the agro-food sector [98] - Data centers, particularly those using liquid cooling, are expected to increase water demand, with global water withdrawals by major tech companies growing significantly [195] Residential - Residential water usage remains stable in the trend scenario, with slight population growth until 2040 followed by a decline [87] - The rupture scenario introduces significant water-saving measures, including decentralized water reuse and improved efficiency, reducing per capita water withdrawals [111] Navigation Canals - The Seine-Nord canal, under construction, is expected to be operational by 2030, with modernization efforts reducing water withdrawals for canal operations [104][112] Climate Projections and Water Demand - Two climate projections, "yellow" (moderate changes) and "violet" (severe changes), are used to model future water demand under different climatic conditions [70][71] - Under the violet projection, water withdrawals remain stable in the trend scenario but decrease in the public policies and rupture scenarios, with consumption doubling in the trend scenario by 2050 [20][21] - The yellow projection shows a decrease in water withdrawals across all scenarios, with the rupture scenario achieving a 37% reduction in consumption by 2050 [22][23] Key Findings - Irrigation will dominate water withdrawals, especially during dry periods, with significant implications for water resources and ecosystems [32] - The rupture scenario is the only one that manages to keep water consumption close to 2020 levels by 2050, through regulated irrigation growth and agroecological practices [24] - The study highlights the need for detailed local-scale work and stakeholder engagement to address future water demand challenges [17][37]

Industry Investment Rating - Emerging market (EM) corporate debt offers compelling opportunities due to its diversity and potential for return dispersion [2][6] Core Themes Impacting EM Corporate Debt - Negative net supply, U S policies, crude oil, interest rate trajectory, and improved default rates are key themes for 2025 [6] EM Corporate Debt Performance - In 2024, EM corporate credit performance was strong with index returns surpassing 7 6%, outperforming both EM and developed market (DM) credit in most rating categories except CCCs [5] Negative Net Supply - EM corporate debt market cap grew from $300 billion to $1 4 trillion ($2 2 trillion including quasi-corporates) from 2010 to its peak, driven by Asia, particularly China [7] - Net financing turned negative in 2022 and 2023 due to a 50% drop in gross issuance from its peak, though issuance stabilized in 2024 and is expected to remain stable in 2025 [8][14] U S Policies - The Trump 2 0 administration's potential trade policies, particularly tariffs on China, and a softer outlook for EM currencies are key risks for EM corporates [15] - Greater China issuers account for 15% of the J P Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified index, with 74% being investment-grade (IG) rated [16][17] Crude Oil - Global oil demand growth for 2025 is forecast at 1 million barrels per day, below historical averages, with China and the U S being the primary demand drivers [35][36] - OPEC's output constraints and geopolitical factors, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, add volatility to oil markets [38][39] Interest Rates and Financing Costs - Higher interest rates have increased average coupons by over 40 basis points (bps) since 2021, with lower-rated issuers more affected by rising financing costs [46][52] - The index maturity profile is stable, with 5% maturing in 2025 and 10-15% per year over the next five years, in line with historical averages [53] Default Rates - The long-term default rate for the HY component of the EM corporate universe is 3 6%, with defaults peaking during COVID-related stress and Chinese real estate sector challenges [60][62] - Default rates are expected to remain contained in 2025, supported by issuers' ability to address near-term maturities and expanded financing options [63][64]

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a strong growth opportunity in the German heating market, driven by decarbonization and the shift towards heat pumps, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][11][21] Core Viewpoints - Decarbonization is driving a significant shift in the German heating market, with heat pumps expected to replace fossil fuel-based heating systems, particularly gas and oil boilers [3][5][6] - The transition to low-emission alternatives is accelerated by stricter emissions controls, government incentives, and the economic advantages of heat pumps [6][10][12] - Heat contracting is emerging as a key business model, offering opportunities for contractors, landlords, and tenants by reducing upfront costs and providing long-term service solutions [19][20][25] Heating Technology Overview - Gas and oil boilers, while traditionally dominant, are being phased out due to emissions regulations and the push for renewable energy sources [5][6][7] - Heat pumps are becoming the preferred technology for new installations, with a forecasted 23% increase in installations through 2034 [3][10][15] - Other technologies like district heating, solar thermal, and geothermal also offer benefits but face limitations such as space requirements and installation costs [8] Market Opportunities - The German heating market presents a massive commercial opportunity, with an estimated 2.3 million buildings requiring new heating systems, creating a potential market of $184.5 billion (€168 billion) for heat pump installations [11] - Heat pumps are expected to become the cheapest heating alternative in Germany, with a 22% lower total cost of ownership compared to gas boilers [12][14] - The expansion of the heat pump market will drive economies of scale, reducing purchase costs from $1,098/kW to $830/kW between 2023 and 2034 [15] Heat Contracting Model - Heat contracting removes the need for landlords to invest in heating assets, offering a service-based model that benefits contractors, tenants, and landlords [19][20][25] - Contractors gain long-term customers and opportunities to upsell services, while tenants receive modern heating solutions and landlords avoid large upfront investments [20][25] - The heat contracting model is expected to grow significantly as the market transitions to heat pumps, requiring greater upfront investment and operational expertise [21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The study reveals that neither high school GPA (HSGPA) nor ACT Composite score consistently dominates across all models, challenging prior conclusions about their relative importance [3][4][92] - Academic achievement measures are significantly stronger predictors of first-year GPA (FYGPA) than demographic variables, with family income and gender being the least important [3][4][92] - English and math performance in high school are highlighted as dominant predictive roles for college success [3][4][92] Summary by Sections Introduction - Accurately predicting FYGPA is crucial for admissions decisions and student support services, with HSGPA and standardized test scores being commonly used predictors [11][88] Methodology - The analytical sample consisted of 7,924 students from a southern state in the U.S. who took the ACT and enrolled in public four-year colleges [23] - Multiple imputation and dominance analysis were employed to evaluate the relative importance of predictors [21][32] Results - General dominance results indicate that ACT Composite score and HSGPA tie for the highest R2 contribution, followed by race/ethnicity, family income, and gender [44][45] - English GPA emerged as the most dominant predictor of FYGPA, followed by ACT English score and ACT math score [63][65] - The weakest predictors of FYGPA were family income and gender, which were frequently dominated by other achievement variables [96][97] Discussion - The findings emphasize the importance of academic readiness measures, such as HSGPA and ACT scores, over demographic factors in predicting college success [97][98] - The study suggests that colleges should focus on academic achievement metrics in admissions decisions and support services [97][98]

Industry Overview - São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) is experiencing significant emigration, driven by limited economic and employment prospects, particularly among the younger generation [7] - The country's economy heavily relies on public development aid (APD), making it vulnerable to external funding fluctuations, with GDP growth stagnating in recent years [16] - Poverty remains widespread, with three-quarters of the population at risk of falling or remaining below the poverty line, and significant challenges in human capital, particularly in educational outcomes [16] Migration Trends - Migration from STP is significant and increasing, with Portugal being the primary destination, hosting over half of the diaspora, followed by Angola and Gabon [17] - The introduction of the CPLP mobility agreement in 2022 has facilitated migration to Portugal, reducing legal and administrative barriers for citizens of Portuguese-speaking countries, including STP [17] - Migrants from STP are predominantly young, urban, and moderately more likely to come from higher-income brackets, although vulnerable populations also migrate [17] Economic Impact of Migration - Migration currently brings limited economic benefits to STP due to low and irregular remittances, high transfer costs, inadequate financial infrastructure, and precarious jobs for migrants abroad [7] - Remittances are a crucial income source for STP households, especially for the elderly, poorer households, and female-headed households, but the volume is relatively low compared to the size of the diaspora [22] - The cost of sending remittances to STP through formal channels is higher than the Sub-Saharan African average, and most remittances are sent informally through third parties [27][28] Social Impact of Migration - Migration can disrupt family structures, particularly affecting children who face challenges in care and emotional well-being [7] - Vulnerable families often receive low-value and irregular remittances, as migrants are frequently confined to low-wage jobs abroad, limiting financial support and household stability post-migration [39] - The emigration of an adult, especially a parent, requires critical adjustments in family dynamics, often transferring care responsibilities to other family members, which can negatively impact children's development [41] Policy Recommendations - Improve the employability of youth both domestically and abroad to ensure viable economic prospects for those who choose to stay and productive jobs for those who wish to emigrate [46] - Establish labor mobility agreements with key destination countries to align migrant skills with labor market needs [50] - Strengthen migration management systems to better support migrant workers, engage the diaspora, and generate data for policy-making [52] - Reduce barriers to receiving remittances by promoting the development of a digital financial services ecosystem that enhances financial inclusion [54] - Protect and support family members of migrants who remain in the country, particularly focusing on youth and children, through social assistance programs [55]

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in clean tech manufacturing across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, driven by EU policies aimed at onshoring clean tech production [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The EU's Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) targets sourcing at least 40% of net-zero technologies domestically by 2030, creating opportunities for Central and Eastern European countries to expand production in key clean tech value chains such as electric vehicle batteries, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, heat pumps, and electrolyzers [3][8] - Poland stands out with the highest export potential and investment requirements in absolute terms, while Bulgaria and Croatia show greater potential relative to their economic size [3][10] - The wind energy value chain offers the most onshoring opportunities, while the electrolyzer value chain presents the fewest [29] Methodology Summary - The analysis uses a five-step framework to identify onshoring potential, including sector filtering, indicator development, composite index creation, export projections, and investment projections [11][12] - Key indicators include demand factors (e.g., EU reliance on non-EU inputs), supply factors (e.g., export competitiveness), and market access ease (e.g., logistics performance) [14][15][16] - A composite Onshoring Attractiveness (OA) index is created using Principal Component Analysis, categorizing opportunities into low, medium, and high attractiveness [23][24] Export and Investment Projections - Under the NZIA scenario, clean tech exports from the 4CEE countries to the EU27 are projected to quintuple by 2030, with Poland capturing 60% of additional exports [43][46] - Investment needs to meet export projections range from $1 billion in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania to $5 billion in Poland, with EV battery manufacturing requiring the largest share of investments [55][57] - Clean tech exports are expected to contribute 1.2% to 3.7% of GDP in the 4CEE countries by 2030, with Croatia leading in relative terms [44][57] Policy Implications - Poland is well-positioned to onshore clean tech production, but challenges include labor force upskilling and declining working-age populations [61] - Fiscal constraints in 4CEE countries limit the use of industrial subsidies, necessitating broader policy interventions beyond subsidies to achieve industrial goals [62][63]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the challenges and opportunities in China's economic landscape, particularly in the property sector and domestic demand [28][29][32] Core Views - China's GDP growth has moderated to 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by subdued domestic demand and a significant drag from the property sector, which saw real estate investment contract by 11.5% y/y in July-November [28] - The government has implemented incremental policy stimulus, including monetary easing and fiscal measures, but the impact has been constrained by weak credit demand and persistent challenges in the property sector [29][32] - The report forecasts GDP growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with inflation expected to remain low at 0.4% in 2024 before rising to 1.1% in 2025 [30][32] Recent Economic Developments - Domestic demand has weakened, with retail sales growing at 2.8% y/y in July-November, about half of the 2019 growth rate, reflecting weak consumer confidence due to falling property prices and sluggish income growth [28][66] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have remained robust, growing by 9.6% and 11.4% y/y respectively in July-November, partially offsetting the contraction in real estate investment [28][66] - Carbon emissions declined by 0.7% y/y in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by reduced output in construction-related industries, despite a 6.6% y/y increase in electricity production [100][101] Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications - The outlook for China's economy is subject to domestic and external risks, including a persistent downturn in the property sector, tighter local government financing, and global trade uncertainties [33][149] - Policy implications include the need for structural reforms to address vulnerabilities such as high property developer and local government debt, low consumption, and an aging population [34][152] - The report emphasizes the importance of fostering domestic demand, supporting a sustainable property sector recovery, and managing local government financial risks through fiscal reforms [34][157] Special Focus: Economic Mobility and China's Emerging Middle Class - China's secure middle class has expanded significantly, growing from 9.8% of the population in 2010 to 32.1% in 2021, with rural areas seeing a larger absolute reduction in low-income population compared to urban areas [37][165][177] - Education and wage-earning jobs are key pathways to upward mobility, with 62.6% of the secure middle class and 71.2% of the upper-income class belonging to the salaried or wage-earning group [183][184] - Future pathways to upward mobility will likely depend more on higher education, as the economy shifts towards high-value services and innovation-driven industries, with significant gaps in educational attainment between urban and rural areas [191][195]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the APAC tech sector, particularly for AI-related plays, with a focus on semiconductors and memory [8][13] Core Views - AI-related investments are expected to continue performing well in 2025, driven by new AI accelerators and Gen AI applications [8] - Smartphone demand may see a resurgence as edge AI becomes more relevant, with a forecast of 2% YoY growth in 2025 [8] - Memory sector recovery is anticipated, with DRAM expected to rebound starting in 4Q25 due to capacity allocation to HBM [8] - CoWoS capacity is projected to grow significantly, from 35-40k wpm at the end of 2024 to 120-130k wpm by the end of 2026 [8] Market and Sector Preferences - Overweight on Korea and Taiwan, particularly in semiconductors, memory, and leading-edge foundries [13] - Neutral on PC OEMs/ODMs and smartphones, while underweight on China semis and displays [13] - Most preferred stocks include ASE, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, Quanta, and TSMC, with significant upside potential [11] Key Stock Coverage - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rated as Buy, with price targets indicating 17.6% and 19.5% upside, respectively [9] - TSMC is also rated as Buy, with an 18.2% upside potential [9] - LG Display is rated as Sell, with limited upside potential [9] Semiconductor Cycle Indicators - Semiconductor revenue growth is expected to peak in 1Q25, with memory operating profits peaking in 3Q26 [34] - Foundry capacity utilization rates are projected to recover, reaching a peak in 4Q25 [34] Tech End-Market Sensitivity to GDP - Mobile phone unit growth shows a 48% correlation with global GDP growth, while PC and server unit growth show weaker correlations [68] - Upside scenarios for non-AI end-markets include stronger global GDP growth and AI-driven replacement cycles for PCs and smartphones [76] PC Demand Recovery - PC demand is expected to recover with the introduction of Edge AI and Windows 12, with total PC units forecasted to grow by 5.7% YoY in 2025 [78] - Notebook units are projected to grow by 6.1% YoY, while desktop units are expected to grow by 4.7% YoY [78]