Industry Investment Rating - Emerging market (EM) corporate debt offers compelling opportunities due to its diversity and potential for return dispersion [2][6] Core Themes Impacting EM Corporate Debt - Negative net supply, U S policies, crude oil, interest rate trajectory, and improved default rates are key themes for 2025 [6] EM Corporate Debt Performance - In 2024, EM corporate credit performance was strong with index returns surpassing 7 6%, outperforming both EM and developed market (DM) credit in most rating categories except CCCs [5] Negative Net Supply - EM corporate debt market cap grew from $300 billion to $1 4 trillion ($2 2 trillion including quasi-corporates) from 2010 to its peak, driven by Asia, particularly China [7] - Net financing turned negative in 2022 and 2023 due to a 50% drop in gross issuance from its peak, though issuance stabilized in 2024 and is expected to remain stable in 2025 [8][14] U S Policies - The Trump 2 0 administration's potential trade policies, particularly tariffs on China, and a softer outlook for EM currencies are key risks for EM corporates [15] - Greater China issuers account for 15% of the J P Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified index, with 74% being investment-grade (IG) rated [16][17] Crude Oil - Global oil demand growth for 2025 is forecast at 1 million barrels per day, below historical averages, with China and the U S being the primary demand drivers [35][36] - OPEC's output constraints and geopolitical factors, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, add volatility to oil markets [38][39] Interest Rates and Financing Costs - Higher interest rates have increased average coupons by over 40 basis points (bps) since 2021, with lower-rated issuers more affected by rising financing costs [46][52] - The index maturity profile is stable, with 5% maturing in 2025 and 10-15% per year over the next five years, in line with historical averages [53] Default Rates - The long-term default rate for the HY component of the EM corporate universe is 3 6%, with defaults peaking during COVID-related stress and Chinese real estate sector challenges [60][62] - Default rates are expected to remain contained in 2025, supported by issuers' ability to address near-term maturities and expanded financing options [63][64]

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a strong growth opportunity in the German heating market, driven by decarbonization and the shift towards heat pumps, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][11][21] Core Viewpoints - Decarbonization is driving a significant shift in the German heating market, with heat pumps expected to replace fossil fuel-based heating systems, particularly gas and oil boilers [3][5][6] - The transition to low-emission alternatives is accelerated by stricter emissions controls, government incentives, and the economic advantages of heat pumps [6][10][12] - Heat contracting is emerging as a key business model, offering opportunities for contractors, landlords, and tenants by reducing upfront costs and providing long-term service solutions [19][20][25] Heating Technology Overview - Gas and oil boilers, while traditionally dominant, are being phased out due to emissions regulations and the push for renewable energy sources [5][6][7] - Heat pumps are becoming the preferred technology for new installations, with a forecasted 23% increase in installations through 2034 [3][10][15] - Other technologies like district heating, solar thermal, and geothermal also offer benefits but face limitations such as space requirements and installation costs [8] Market Opportunities - The German heating market presents a massive commercial opportunity, with an estimated 2.3 million buildings requiring new heating systems, creating a potential market of $184.5 billion (€168 billion) for heat pump installations [11] - Heat pumps are expected to become the cheapest heating alternative in Germany, with a 22% lower total cost of ownership compared to gas boilers [12][14] - The expansion of the heat pump market will drive economies of scale, reducing purchase costs from $1,098/kW to $830/kW between 2023 and 2034 [15] Heat Contracting Model - Heat contracting removes the need for landlords to invest in heating assets, offering a service-based model that benefits contractors, tenants, and landlords [19][20][25] - Contractors gain long-term customers and opportunities to upsell services, while tenants receive modern heating solutions and landlords avoid large upfront investments [20][25] - The heat contracting model is expected to grow significantly as the market transitions to heat pumps, requiring greater upfront investment and operational expertise [21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The study reveals that neither high school GPA (HSGPA) nor ACT Composite score consistently dominates across all models, challenging prior conclusions about their relative importance [3][4][92] - Academic achievement measures are significantly stronger predictors of first-year GPA (FYGPA) than demographic variables, with family income and gender being the least important [3][4][92] - English and math performance in high school are highlighted as dominant predictive roles for college success [3][4][92] Summary by Sections Introduction - Accurately predicting FYGPA is crucial for admissions decisions and student support services, with HSGPA and standardized test scores being commonly used predictors [11][88] Methodology - The analytical sample consisted of 7,924 students from a southern state in the U.S. who took the ACT and enrolled in public four-year colleges [23] - Multiple imputation and dominance analysis were employed to evaluate the relative importance of predictors [21][32] Results - General dominance results indicate that ACT Composite score and HSGPA tie for the highest R2 contribution, followed by race/ethnicity, family income, and gender [44][45] - English GPA emerged as the most dominant predictor of FYGPA, followed by ACT English score and ACT math score [63][65] - The weakest predictors of FYGPA were family income and gender, which were frequently dominated by other achievement variables [96][97] Discussion - The findings emphasize the importance of academic readiness measures, such as HSGPA and ACT scores, over demographic factors in predicting college success [97][98] - The study suggests that colleges should focus on academic achievement metrics in admissions decisions and support services [97][98]

Industry Overview - São Tomé and Príncipe (STP) is experiencing significant emigration, driven by limited economic and employment prospects, particularly among the younger generation [7] - The country's economy heavily relies on public development aid (APD), making it vulnerable to external funding fluctuations, with GDP growth stagnating in recent years [16] - Poverty remains widespread, with three-quarters of the population at risk of falling or remaining below the poverty line, and significant challenges in human capital, particularly in educational outcomes [16] Migration Trends - Migration from STP is significant and increasing, with Portugal being the primary destination, hosting over half of the diaspora, followed by Angola and Gabon [17] - The introduction of the CPLP mobility agreement in 2022 has facilitated migration to Portugal, reducing legal and administrative barriers for citizens of Portuguese-speaking countries, including STP [17] - Migrants from STP are predominantly young, urban, and moderately more likely to come from higher-income brackets, although vulnerable populations also migrate [17] Economic Impact of Migration - Migration currently brings limited economic benefits to STP due to low and irregular remittances, high transfer costs, inadequate financial infrastructure, and precarious jobs for migrants abroad [7] - Remittances are a crucial income source for STP households, especially for the elderly, poorer households, and female-headed households, but the volume is relatively low compared to the size of the diaspora [22] - The cost of sending remittances to STP through formal channels is higher than the Sub-Saharan African average, and most remittances are sent informally through third parties [27][28] Social Impact of Migration - Migration can disrupt family structures, particularly affecting children who face challenges in care and emotional well-being [7] - Vulnerable families often receive low-value and irregular remittances, as migrants are frequently confined to low-wage jobs abroad, limiting financial support and household stability post-migration [39] - The emigration of an adult, especially a parent, requires critical adjustments in family dynamics, often transferring care responsibilities to other family members, which can negatively impact children's development [41] Policy Recommendations - Improve the employability of youth both domestically and abroad to ensure viable economic prospects for those who choose to stay and productive jobs for those who wish to emigrate [46] - Establish labor mobility agreements with key destination countries to align migrant skills with labor market needs [50] - Strengthen migration management systems to better support migrant workers, engage the diaspora, and generate data for policy-making [52] - Reduce barriers to receiving remittances by promoting the development of a digital financial services ecosystem that enhances financial inclusion [54] - Protect and support family members of migrants who remain in the country, particularly focusing on youth and children, through social assistance programs [55]

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in clean tech manufacturing across Central and Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania, driven by EU policies aimed at onshoring clean tech production [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The EU's Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) targets sourcing at least 40% of net-zero technologies domestically by 2030, creating opportunities for Central and Eastern European countries to expand production in key clean tech value chains such as electric vehicle batteries, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, heat pumps, and electrolyzers [3][8] - Poland stands out with the highest export potential and investment requirements in absolute terms, while Bulgaria and Croatia show greater potential relative to their economic size [3][10] - The wind energy value chain offers the most onshoring opportunities, while the electrolyzer value chain presents the fewest [29] Methodology Summary - The analysis uses a five-step framework to identify onshoring potential, including sector filtering, indicator development, composite index creation, export projections, and investment projections [11][12] - Key indicators include demand factors (e.g., EU reliance on non-EU inputs), supply factors (e.g., export competitiveness), and market access ease (e.g., logistics performance) [14][15][16] - A composite Onshoring Attractiveness (OA) index is created using Principal Component Analysis, categorizing opportunities into low, medium, and high attractiveness [23][24] Export and Investment Projections - Under the NZIA scenario, clean tech exports from the 4CEE countries to the EU27 are projected to quintuple by 2030, with Poland capturing 60% of additional exports [43][46] - Investment needs to meet export projections range from $1 billion in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Romania to $5 billion in Poland, with EV battery manufacturing requiring the largest share of investments [55][57] - Clean tech exports are expected to contribute 1.2% to 3.7% of GDP in the 4CEE countries by 2030, with Croatia leading in relative terms [44][57] Policy Implications - Poland is well-positioned to onshore clean tech production, but challenges include labor force upskilling and declining working-age populations [61] - Fiscal constraints in 4CEE countries limit the use of industrial subsidies, necessitating broader policy interventions beyond subsidies to achieve industrial goals [62][63]

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights the challenges and opportunities in China's economic landscape, particularly in the property sector and domestic demand [28][29][32] Core Views - China's GDP growth has moderated to 4.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by subdued domestic demand and a significant drag from the property sector, which saw real estate investment contract by 11.5% y/y in July-November [28] - The government has implemented incremental policy stimulus, including monetary easing and fiscal measures, but the impact has been constrained by weak credit demand and persistent challenges in the property sector [29][32] - The report forecasts GDP growth of 4.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, with inflation expected to remain low at 0.4% in 2024 before rising to 1.1% in 2025 [30][32] Recent Economic Developments - Domestic demand has weakened, with retail sales growing at 2.8% y/y in July-November, about half of the 2019 growth rate, reflecting weak consumer confidence due to falling property prices and sluggish income growth [28][66] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment have remained robust, growing by 9.6% and 11.4% y/y respectively in July-November, partially offsetting the contraction in real estate investment [28][66] - Carbon emissions declined by 0.7% y/y in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by reduced output in construction-related industries, despite a 6.6% y/y increase in electricity production [100][101] Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications - The outlook for China's economy is subject to domestic and external risks, including a persistent downturn in the property sector, tighter local government financing, and global trade uncertainties [33][149] - Policy implications include the need for structural reforms to address vulnerabilities such as high property developer and local government debt, low consumption, and an aging population [34][152] - The report emphasizes the importance of fostering domestic demand, supporting a sustainable property sector recovery, and managing local government financial risks through fiscal reforms [34][157] Special Focus: Economic Mobility and China's Emerging Middle Class - China's secure middle class has expanded significantly, growing from 9.8% of the population in 2010 to 32.1% in 2021, with rural areas seeing a larger absolute reduction in low-income population compared to urban areas [37][165][177] - Education and wage-earning jobs are key pathways to upward mobility, with 62.6% of the secure middle class and 71.2% of the upper-income class belonging to the salaried or wage-earning group [183][184] - Future pathways to upward mobility will likely depend more on higher education, as the economy shifts towards high-value services and innovation-driven industries, with significant gaps in educational attainment between urban and rural areas [191][195]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the APAC tech sector, particularly for AI-related plays, with a focus on semiconductors and memory [8][13] Core Views - AI-related investments are expected to continue performing well in 2025, driven by new AI accelerators and Gen AI applications [8] - Smartphone demand may see a resurgence as edge AI becomes more relevant, with a forecast of 2% YoY growth in 2025 [8] - Memory sector recovery is anticipated, with DRAM expected to rebound starting in 4Q25 due to capacity allocation to HBM [8] - CoWoS capacity is projected to grow significantly, from 35-40k wpm at the end of 2024 to 120-130k wpm by the end of 2026 [8] Market and Sector Preferences - Overweight on Korea and Taiwan, particularly in semiconductors, memory, and leading-edge foundries [13] - Neutral on PC OEMs/ODMs and smartphones, while underweight on China semis and displays [13] - Most preferred stocks include ASE, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, Quanta, and TSMC, with significant upside potential [11] Key Stock Coverage - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rated as Buy, with price targets indicating 17.6% and 19.5% upside, respectively [9] - TSMC is also rated as Buy, with an 18.2% upside potential [9] - LG Display is rated as Sell, with limited upside potential [9] Semiconductor Cycle Indicators - Semiconductor revenue growth is expected to peak in 1Q25, with memory operating profits peaking in 3Q26 [34] - Foundry capacity utilization rates are projected to recover, reaching a peak in 4Q25 [34] Tech End-Market Sensitivity to GDP - Mobile phone unit growth shows a 48% correlation with global GDP growth, while PC and server unit growth show weaker correlations [68] - Upside scenarios for non-AI end-markets include stronger global GDP growth and AI-driven replacement cycles for PCs and smartphones [76] PC Demand Recovery - PC demand is expected to recover with the introduction of Edge AI and Windows 12, with total PC units forecasted to grow by 5.7% YoY in 2025 [78] - Notebook units are projected to grow by 6.1% YoY, while desktop units are expected to grow by 4.7% YoY [78]

Industry Overview - The humanitarian crisis in Syria has escalated, with 16.7 million people in need and 10.8 million targeted for assistance [2] - The funding requirement for 2025 is US$ 141.5 million, including a US$ 56.4 million emergency flash appeal [2] - Syria has the second-highest number of internally displaced persons globally, with over half the population at risk of hunger [4] Health Sector Challenges - Health facilities face critical shortages of medical supplies, with 77 attacks on healthcare recorded in 2024 [5] - Essential health services are severely strained, with power and energy supplies insufficient in most areas [5] - Malnutrition rates have tripled in four years, and medical care has deteriorated due to lack of resources [4] WHO's Strategic Objectives - Sustain and enhance access to essential quality health services, including medicines, vaccines, and diagnostics [13] - Ensure emergency preparedness and response, focusing on trauma care and emergency referrals [13] - Strengthen health leadership and coordination to address urgent needs of affected populations [13] Operational Presence and Partnerships - WHO has an operational presence in Damascus, Gaziantep, and five field offices, with approximately 150 staff [18][19] - WHO collaborates with over 70 members in the health cluster, including national and international NGOs and UN agencies [21] - The organization works closely with the Ministry of Health and local partners to address health needs [20] Funding Requirements - The total estimated financial requirements for 2025 include US$ 56.4 million for the Flash Appeal [27] - Key funding areas include safe and scalable care (US$ 91.2 million) and case management and therapeutics (US$ 47.9 million) [26] - Operational support and logistics require US$ 22.9 million, while infection prevention and control in health facilities need US$ 1.1 million [26]

Industry Overview - Lebanon's health sector is under immense strain due to socio-economic deterioration, regional instability, and recent escalations in violence, with over 1.3 million internally displaced people and 80% of Lebanese citizens and 90% of Syrian refugees affected by poverty [16] - The health system faces unprecedented challenges, including the closure of 130 primary health centers and 7 hospitals, nearly 4000 fatalities, and over 16,000 injuries due to military escalation [2] - The crisis is compounded by shortages of medical supplies, skilled health personnel, and essential medicines, leaving vulnerable populations without access to critical treatments [9] Humanitarian Needs and Funding - 3.7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, including 2.2 million Lebanese, 1.3 million Syrian refugees, 119,000 Palestinian refugees, and 87,000 migrants [1] - The funding requirement for the 2025 humanitarian emergency is USD 48 million, with the largest allocation for safe and scalable care (USD 37,988,000) and essential health systems and services (USD 26,678,000) [26] WHO's Strategic Objectives and Activities - WHO's 2025 strategy focuses on strengthening disease surveillance, enhancing laboratory capacity, improving emergency response capabilities, expanding mental health support, and ensuring continuity of essential healthcare [15] - Key activities include training 500 healthcare workers in data collection, upgrading laboratories, distributing 100 trauma kits, and training 1000 health workers in trauma care and mass casualty management [15] - WHO aims to stabilize Lebanon's healthcare system, expand access to critical services, and foster collaboration with the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) and partners [12] Achievements and Ongoing Efforts - In 2024, WHO delivered 225 metric tons of medical supplies, established mobile medical units, and strengthened disease surveillance, which helped detect and contain a cholera outbreak [18] - The Public Health Emergency Operation Centre (PHEOC) coordinated Lebanon's emergency health response during a Beirut explosion, directing 2800 victims to hospitals and managing logistics [8] - WHO has trained over 5600 healthcare workers in mass casualty management and supported the PHEOC with essential equipment and technical assistance [22] Partnerships and Coordination - WHO collaborates with MoPH, UNHCR, and 58 health partners under the health sector coordination mechanism, leveraging Lebanon's existing humanitarian and developmental architecture [20] - WHO's partnership with MoPH includes supporting Lebanon's transition to health resilience through early recovery efforts, such as restoring health infrastructure and addressing workforce shortages [19] Future Plans - WHO's 2025 strategy includes a dual approach to meet immediate health needs and early recovery goals, focusing on mass casualty management, trauma care, and sustaining essential healthcare services [28] - The strategy aligns with Lebanon's National Health Strategy Vision 2030, prioritizing strengthened health system governance, expanded primary healthcare, and greater self-sufficiency in essential medical supplies [3]

Humanitarian Crisis Overview - Somalia faces a severe humanitarian crisis with 6 million people in need and 4.6 million targeted for assistance, requiring $38 million in funding [2] - The crisis is driven by four principal shocks: conflict, drought, flooding, and disease outbreaks, leading to displacement and poor health outcomes [3] - Over three decades of armed conflict have weakened the health system, resulting in low immunization rates, a sparse health workforce, and high maternal and child mortality rates [4] - Climatic shocks in 2023 and 2024, including droughts and flooding, have disrupted food production, increased food insecurity, and led to widespread severe acute malnutrition [5] - The outlook for 2025 is concerning, with the La Niña weather pattern expected to induce drought, further displacement, and a rise in infectious diseases [6] WHO's Strategic Objectives and Response Strategy - WHO aims to strengthen inter-sectoral coordination, deliver life-saving health interventions, and enhance health system resilience to cope with future crises [11] - WHO will support Federal Member State Ministries of Health to improve coordination and response capacity for managing health emergencies [12] - WHO will sustain essential public health functions built during the COVID-19 pandemic, including collaborative surveillance, community protection, and access to medical countermeasures [13] - WHO will address gaps in essential health service delivery by training healthcare workers and procuring emergency health kits and medicines [14] Operational Presence and Partnerships - WHO Somalia operates with over 200 personnel across all Member States, with main offices in Mogadishu and sub-offices in Garowe, Hargeisa, and Baidoa [15] - WHO coordinates with around 50 active partners, including 18 international NGOs, 28 national NGOs, and 4 United Nations agencies, to address health needs and strengthen health systems [16] Key Activities for 2025 - WHO will coordinate with the Ministry of Health and cluster partners to conduct public health situation analyses, strengthen surveillance systems, and enhance laboratory capacity [20] - WHO will preposition critical medical supplies, provide case management training, and implement targeted interventions to prevent sexual exploitation, abuse, and harassment [20] - WHO will support outbreak control, mass casualty response, and data collection to inform decision-making and optimize response strategies [20] Achievements in 2024 - WHO and Action Against Hunger provided life-saving health and nutrition services to drought-affected regions, reaching almost 15,000 people in Banadir, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions [21][26] - The project improved access to health and nutrition services, supported disease surveillance teams, and enhanced the availability of services at health facilities [24][25] Funding Requirements for 2025 - The total funding requirement for Somalia's humanitarian emergency in 2025 is $38.07 million, covering areas such as collaborative surveillance, diagnostics, community protection, and essential health systems [29]