Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [351][356][361]. Core Insights - The growth rate of US brands' sales in China has decelerated significantly, with the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) index for 27 US Softlines brands decreasing by 24% year-over-year in November, marking a deceleration of approximately 17,700 basis points month-over-month [10][32]. - Only 6 out of the 27 brands in the index experienced year-over-year GMV growth, highlighting the challenging market conditions [10][32]. - Crocs and Canada Goose showed the best growth rates in November, with year-over-year increases of 84% and 55% respectively, while brands like Nike and Skechers faced substantial declines of 63% and 66% [10][11][12][55]. Summary by Sections China Online Market Monitor - The UBS Evidence Lab's China Online Market Monitor tracks the online performance of major consumer brands, focusing on GMV, sales volume, and average selling prices on platforms like Tmall and Taobao [13][364]. Softlines Industry Gross Merchandise Value Index - The Softlines Industry GMV index increased by 12% on a two-year basis, despite a month-over-month deceleration [44][46]. - The index's year-over-year change reflects a significant decline, indicating a challenging environment for softlines retailers [32][44]. Company Leaderboards - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various companies, with Crocs and Salomon leading in growth on a rolling three-month, two-year basis, showing increases of 202% and 108% respectively [11][55]. - Other notable performers include Lululemon and Canada Goose, with growth rates of 94% and 93% [11][55]. Time Series Data - The report includes time series data for individual companies, illustrating trends in GMV and sales performance over time [10][11][12][55]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report presents a valuation table for the companies covered, detailing market capitalization, price targets, and expected sales growth rates [351][356][361]. - Key financial metrics such as return on equity (ROE), profit margins, and debt ratios are also analyzed to assess the financial health of the companies [356][361]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests a cautious optimism for select companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, despite the broader challenges faced in the market [351][356][361].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [351][356][361]. Core Insights - The growth rate of US brands' sales in China has decelerated significantly, with the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) index for 27 US Softlines brands decreasing by 24% year-over-year in November, reflecting a 17,700 basis points deceleration month-over-month [10][32][44]. - On a two-year basis, the index showed a growth of 12%, but this also represented a deceleration of approximately 2,800 basis points month-over-month [44][44]. - Notable performers in November included Crocs and Canada Goose, which reported year-over-year GMV growth rates of 84% and 55%, respectively [10][11][55]. - Conversely, brands like Nike and Skechers experienced significant declines, with Nike's GMV decreasing by 63% year-over-year and Skechers by 66% [12][55]. Summary by Sections China Online Market Monitor - The UBS Evidence Lab's China Online Market Monitor tracks the online performance of major consumer brands, focusing on GMV, sales volume, and average selling prices on platforms like Tmall and Taobao [13][13]. Softlines Industry Gross Merchandise Value Index - The Softlines Industry GMV Index reflects a 24% year-over-year decline, indicating challenges in the market [32][32]. - The index's performance is heavily influenced by the sales trends of individual brands, with only 6 out of 27 brands showing growth [10][10]. Company Leaderboards - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with Crocs and Canada Goose leading in growth, while brands like Abercrombie & Fitch and Victoria's Secret faced substantial declines [11][11][55]. - The report provides detailed GMV growth rates for each brand, showcasing the stark differences in performance across the sector [11][11][55]. Time Series Data - Time series data for individual companies illustrates the fluctuations in GMV over recent months, emphasizing the volatility within the softlines retail sector [10][10][11]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for the companies covered, detailing market capitalization, price targets, and expected returns, which supports the investment ratings assigned [351][356][361].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for carbon management technologies, emphasizing their critical role in mitigating climate change and the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [4][20]. Core Insights - COP29 marked a significant advancement in carbon management, with the establishment of global carbon market rules and frameworks that enhance financial accessibility and inclusivity [4][6][20]. - The operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, particularly the endorsement of Article 6.4 guidelines, is a key milestone for carbon trading and management [7][8]. - The emphasis on collaboration among various stakeholders, including governments and industries, is crucial for scaling carbon management solutions and achieving climate goals [5][17][20]. Summary by Sections Global Carbon Market Rules - Substantial progress was made on carbon trading rules under Article 6, with the endorsement of guidelines that facilitate bilateral trading of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) and the establishment of the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) [7][8]. - ITMOs incentivize investment in emissions reduction technologies, particularly in regions with limited financing access, while the PACM supports the international sale of carbon credits [8][9]. NCQG Framework - The NCQG framework offers flexibility in eligibility for carbon management technologies, but lacks explicit prioritization for funding and detailed mechanisms for balancing public and private finance [11]. - Ongoing debates around concessional versus non-concessional funding could limit accessibility for emerging economies [11]. Mitigation Work Programme - The Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme (MWP) showed mixed outcomes, with opportunities for continued discussions on carbon management in future dialogues [12]. - The potential creation of a digital platform for collaboration on investable mitigation projects was highlighted [12]. Socioeconomic Impacts - A four-year work plan (2026-2030) was established to address the socioeconomic impacts of climate policies, integrating trade-related climate measures into global discussions [14][16]. - The importance of just transition strategies in climate mitigation policies was emphasized, reflecting the need for socio-economic considerations in carbon management [16]. Carbon Management Challenge - The Carbon Management Challenge (CMC) aims to advance a pipeline of carbon management projects targeting the management of over 1 gigatonne (Gt) of CO2 annually by 2030 [17][18]. - Key workstreams include finance for developing countries, project deployment, and communication, with a focus on innovative financing mechanisms and international collaboration [18]. Challenges and Pathways - The outcomes of COP29 provide a foundation for scaling carbon management technologies, with a recognition of the need for financial resources and capacity-building in developing countries [20]. - The deployment of carbon management technologies must align with broader sustainable development objectives to avoid unintended consequences [20].

DECEMBER 2024 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sam Winter-Levy | The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy | | | | | | | | | | The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy Sam Winter-Levy © 2024 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. Carnegie does not take institutional positions on p ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights the exponential growth of women's football, positioning it as football's biggest growth opportunity with vast untapped potential [16][21] Core Viewpoints - FIFA aims to lead the sustainable growth of women's football until 2027 through a revised global strategy and tailored development programmes [2][3] - Key objectives include increasing female participation, enhancing commercial value, and building strong foundations for the women's game [22][23][31] - The FIFA Women's World Cup is identified as a major catalyst for accelerating the growth of women's football globally [17][19] Strategy and Tactics Participation Growth - FIFA targets increasing the number of female players to 60 million by 2027 [37] - Plans to double the number of member associations with organized youth leagues by 2026 to sustain girls' participation [37] Commercial Value Enhancement - FIFA aims to unlock the commercial potential of women's football at all levels, leveraging the success of the FIFA Women's World Cup [26][28] - The organization plans to develop a dedicated women's football commercial programme by 2026 [45] Foundation Building - FIFA commits to modernizing the regulatory framework and ensuring diverse representation in football leadership [32][33] - The organization will invest in targeted research to close the gender research gap and support the professionalisation of women's football [32] Game Plan Execution - FIFA's five-pronged strategy includes developing and growing the game, showcasing it, communicating and commercialising it, governing and leading, and educating and empowering stakeholders [35] - Specific tactics include modernizing development programmes, creating new competitions, and strengthening the Women's International Match Calendar [36][42] Development Programmes Women's Football Strategy - FIFA supports member associations in developing or revising their women's football strategies through expert guidance and funding up to USD 10,000 [93] Women's Football Campaign - This programme aims to boost grassroots participation by organizing football festivals and providing safe spaces for minority groups [96][98] League Development - Focuses on introducing new competitions and strengthening existing ones, with funding up to USD 100,000 per year for capacity-building [105][106] Club Licensing - Aims to accelerate the professionalisation of women's football by raising club and league standards through licensing workshops and funding up to USD 20,000 per year [111][112] Commercial Strategy (Pilot) - Provides guidance to member associations for establishing sustainable sponsorship and marketing strategies, with funding up to USD 50,000 [115][117] Global Benchmarking of Women's Leagues - FIFA will monitor the state of women's leagues globally and provide benchmarking tools to improve their quality and competitiveness [121][123] Capacity-Building for Administrators - Offers workshops and funding up to USD 50,000 to enhance the skills of women's football staff in member associations [130][131] Women in Football Leadership - Aims to increase female representation in decision-making roles through leadership workshops and networking opportunities [136][137] Coach Education Scholarships - Supports the development of female coaches through individual and group scholarships, including course fees and networking opportunities [149][150] Coach Mentorship - Focuses on fostering the growth of female coaches through mentorship programmes and funding up to USD 50,000 [156][157] Elite Performance: Coach Mentorship - Aims to develop talented female coaches aspiring to coach at the highest level, with support from experienced mentors and funding up to USD 2,500 [160][161] Elite Performance: Women's National Team Preparation - Supports the physical preparation of women's national teams for major tournaments, with funding up to USD 25,000 per year [172][173]

Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from autocratic leadership to a more empathetic and inclusive style, termed "Management by Bear," which is increasingly critical for business success in today's volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world [6] - Societal norms and expectations for leadership have evolved, with younger generations (Millennials, Gen Y, and Gen Z) demanding inclusion, collaboration, and mental health awareness from their leaders [6] - Regulatory requirements around well-being, diversity, inclusivity, and social impacts are becoming more stringent, with examples including ESG requirements, UN SDGs, and ESRS [6] Key Leadership Qualities - Effective leadership in the modern business environment requires ambidexterity, balancing "softer" qualities like empathy with "harder" qualities like decisiveness [11] - Four essential qualities for Management by Bear are: assertive kindness, decisive fairness, brave adaptability, and competitive inclusivity [11][44] - Assertive kindness involves understanding employees' needs and making decisions based on what is best for the organization, not just what employees want [46] - Decisive fairness requires leaders to establish transparent criteria for decision-making, ensuring ethical behavior and fairness across the organization [49] - Brave adaptability is crucial in a VUCA world, where leaders must balance resilience with a clear sense of purpose [50] - Competitive inclusivity ensures that all employees feel valued while maintaining a meritocratic environment [55] Benefits of Management by Bear - Companies with empathetic leadership experience higher employee engagement, loyalty, and productivity, with studies showing double-digit productivity boosts and reductions in absenteeism [11] - Empathetic leadership reduces workplace conflicts, turnover, and sick leave, with research indicating that over 40% of employees face stress, which negatively impacts productivity and health [67] - Enhanced brand attractiveness is another benefit, as consumers increasingly value companies that demonstrate empathy, fairness, and transparency [69] Implementation of Management by Bear - The report outlines a six-step approach to implementing Management by Bear: (1) reflect and assess, (2) shape purpose and vision, (3) integrate into business management, (4) communicate and educate, (5) deal with resistance, and (6) evaluate and report [73] - Reflection and assessment are critical first steps, involving dialogue with internal and external stakeholders to understand the current state of leadership and organizational culture [74] - Shaping a clear purpose and vision is essential for maintaining agility and resilience, with examples from companies like Unilever and Johnson & Johnson [78] - Integrating Management by Bear principles into business management involves aligning strategy, processes, resources, and organizational culture with the new leadership philosophy [82] Case Studies - Companies like Ben & Jerry's, Google, Hitachi, IKEA, Mahindra, Nedbank, Patagonia, Salesforce, TOMS Shoes, and Zappos have successfully implemented principles aligned with Management by Bear [13][115] - Ben & Jerry's integrates social justice into its business model, focusing on environmental sustainability, fair trade, and social equity [115] - Google promotes a culture of inclusivity, fairness, and innovation, with initiatives like DEI programs and a top score on the Disability Equality Index [117] - Patagonia is renowned for its environmental ethics, with initiatives like "1% for the Planet" and fair labor practices [129][130] - Salesforce's Ohana culture emphasizes unity and mutual support, with the company contributing 1% of its software, equity, and employees' time to social causes [134][136] Challenges and Responses - Companies like Google and Patagonia face criticism for privacy practices and greenwashing, respectively, but have responded by enhancing transparency and improving their sustainability efforts [117][132] - TOMS Shoes has adjusted its "One for One" model to focus more on sustainable solutions and long-term impacts, addressing criticisms of dependency creation [133] - Zappos has implemented support mechanisms and flexibility options to address work-life balance challenges, ensuring a healthier work environment [139]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the plastics industry or its sub-sectors. Core Insights - The plastics sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, with the petrochemical industry accounting for 14% of total primary oil demand in 2019 and direct emissions from plastic production estimated at 1.4–1.6 Gt CO₂e per year [4] - The guidance emphasizes the need for companies to report emissions at the product level to drive decarbonization actions and enable informed purchasing decisions [5][7] - Key decarbonization levers include maximizing mechanically recycled plastic, increasing renewable electricity usage, and deploying low-emission production technologies [8] Summary by Sections Background - Plastics are essential in various applications, including packaging, construction, and consumer goods, and are critical for the transition to net-zero energy [3] Reporting Metrics and Basis - The guidance outlines a product footprint basis for emissions reporting, using kg CO₂e per kg of product as the standard metric [10] - Required metrics include resin types, emissions intensity, and primary data share to create transparent decarbonization signals [15][16] Methodology - Emissions calculations are based on ISO standards, with separate determinations for direct (Scope 1) and indirect (Scope 2) emissions [23][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of using primary data for accuracy in emissions reporting [16][28] Best Practice Optional Metrics - Optional metrics include end-of-life emissions intensity, recyclability ratings, and renewable energy share, which can enhance transparency and support corporate sustainability goals [19][21][57] Appendices - Appendix A provides details on molding techniques and associated emissions, while Appendix B outlines optional metrics for enhanced reporting [47][54]

Industry Overview - The financial industry has faced unprecedented and fast-moving threats in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic and real-time bank runs accelerated by social media, which have disrupted traditional credit and liquidity models [3] - Chief Risk Officers (CROs) in financial institutions are under increasing pressure to manage both financial and nonfinancial risks while boosting the bottom line, requiring them to adapt to a rapidly evolving risk environment [4] Core Habits of Successful CROs - Successful CROs are explicit about their risk and resilience purpose and vision, championing a risk-aware culture across the organization [6] - They invest in and empower the next generation of risk leaders, building diverse teams and planning for leadership succession from the start [6] - Leading beyond risk, CROs engage deeply with other C-suite leaders and the board to align risk and resilience objectives with business goals [7] - They treat supervisors as partners, maintaining transparency and proactive communication to build constructive relationships [7] - CROs focus on their unique role by integrating insights across the organization to anticipate future threats and strengthen resilience [7] - They continually monitor their personal effectiveness, manage time strategically, and delegate responsibilities to maintain balance and readiness [7] Key Practices and Insights - CROs spend an average of 34% of their time with the risk function to understand team strengths and weaknesses, while dedicating up to 56% of their time engaging with the executive team and board [13][15] - Successful CROs use their unique vantage point to manage cross-cutting risks, take a long-term view, and allocate resources effectively to build organizational resilience [17] - They prioritize self-reflection and time management, with some spending up to 73% of their time preparing for potential future risks [22] Conclusion - The six habits of highly successful CROs—championing risk culture, investing in leadership, leading beyond risk, partnering with supervisors, focusing on their unique role, and improving personal effectiveness—are essential for navigating today's complex risk environment [27] - By adopting these habits, CROs can transition from risk managers to influential leaders, driving organizational success and sustainability in an ever-changing landscape [28]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for carbon management technologies, emphasizing their critical role in achieving climate goals and sustainable development [4][20]. Core Insights - COP29 marked a significant advancement in carbon management, with the establishment of global carbon market rules and increased collaboration among stakeholders [4][5][17]. - The operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, particularly the endorsement of Article 6.4 guidelines, is a key milestone for carbon trading and market mechanisms [7][8]. - The NCQG framework offers flexibility for carbon management funding but faces challenges in ensuring inclusivity and financial accessibility for emerging economies [11][20]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Developments - Substantial progress was made on carbon trading rules, particularly with the endorsement of Article 6.4 guidelines, which facilitate the operationalization of a global carbon market [7][8]. - The introduction of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) and the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) incentivizes investment in emissions reduction technologies [8]. Financial Mechanisms and Inclusivity - The NCQG framework retains flexibility in technology eligibility but does not guarantee funding, highlighting the need for targeted policies to support emerging economies [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative financing mechanisms and international collaboration to scale carbon management projects globally [18]. Socioeconomic Considerations - COP29 established a four-year work plan focusing on the socioeconomic impacts of climate policies, integrating trade and climate measures into global discussions [14][15]. - The emphasis on just transition strategies indicates a growing recognition of the need to address social and economic impacts in climate mitigation efforts [16][20]. Future Collaboration and Goals - The Carbon Management Challenge (CMC) aims to advance a pipeline of projects to collectively manage over 1 gigatonne of CO2 annually by 2030, with active participation from multiple countries [17][18]. - Continued discussions on carbon management in future global dialogues and investment-focused events are anticipated, fostering collaboration among governments and stakeholders [12][20].

Global Connections - Goods trade relationships in 2021 show that nearly 40% of trade in globally concentrated products occurs between geopolitically distant economies, making substitution difficult in the short to medium term [7] - The geopolitical distance of trade among major economies has declined, but fragmentation scenarios remain possible [7] Resources of the World - Only 10% of the technologies needed to meet global emissions reduction commitments by 2050 have been deployed, with 25 physical challenges identified for the remaining 90% [10] - Addressing the most demanding physical challenges, such as managing variable renewables and developing low-emissions industrial processes, could abate about half of energy-related emissions [10] - Key challenges include managing renewables variability, scaling emerging power systems, and securing land for renewables [11][12] Productivity & Prosperity - Productivity in the median economy has increased sixfold over the past 25 years, with 30 emerging economies in the "fast lane" of improvement [18] - Advanced-economy productivity growth has slowed by about one percentage point since the global financial crisis, with investment in digitization, automation, and AI seen as key to future growth [18] - Micro-, small, and medium-size enterprises (MSMEs) account for two-thirds of business employment in advanced economies and almost four-fifths in emerging economies, with significant productivity gaps compared to larger firms [21][22] Accelerating Competitiveness in Europe - Closing Europe's prosperity gap could increase value added by €500 billion to €1 trillion by 2030, requiring investment in areas such as energy, technology, and supply chains [24] - European corporations lag behind US counterparts in scale, performance, and investment, with a widening gap in capital expenditure and R&D spending [25][26][33] Economic Empowerment - Achieving economic empowerment could lift a quarter billion people globally above the empowerment line, with affordability challenges influenced by policy, public services, and private sector actions [28] - Higher incomes and better empowerment outcomes tend to correlate, but the effect plateaus after a certain income level [29][30] Human Potential - Tight labor markets in advanced economies could reduce GDP by 0.5% to 1.5% in 2023 due to unfilled job vacancies, with solutions including flexible work, migration programs, and initiatives to retain seniors and attract women [37][38] - AI adoption could automate up to 30% of current hours worked by 2030, requiring significant occupational transitions and new skills in advanced IT, data analytics, and critical thinking [40][41] Technology & Markets of the Future - 18 potential arenas of competition, including AI software, cybersecurity, and electric vehicles, could generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues and $2 trillion to $6 trillion in profits by 2040 [46][47] - These arenas are characterized by cutting-edge technologies, large investments, and growing markets, with the potential to increase their share of global GDP from 4% to 10-16% by 2040 [46][47]