The myth of income, spending and financial asset growth
Morgan Stanley· 2024-07-04 08:34
June 23, 2024 08:02 PM GMT Contrary to market concerns, our analysis shows still healthy growth in household financial assets, income and consumption amid de-risking efforts in China. However, some structural changes in allocation of income growth and over competition among goods and service providers could be concerns. Payment and job applications data shows consumption downgrade in first-tier cities and upgrade in rural/lower-tier cities. Job application and employment data showed a notable shift from int ...
10 Themes For 2024
Morgan Stanley· 2024-07-04 05:44
Group 1: Market Trends - Japan and India are expected to outperform, with Japan's ROE projected to reach 12% by 2025 due to sustained reflation and rising productivity[27] - The US net liquidity reversal in 2024 may lead to underperformance in US stocks, as 2023 was characterized by higher liquidity than anticipated[27] - The M&A and IPO market is showing signs of revival, with acquirer balance sheets flush with cash, indicating improved market sentiment[27] Group 2: Economic Challenges - Weather and conflict bottlenecks are impacting trade, with 80% of trade flows by sea facing longer journeys, increasing freight rates by over 30%[27] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing a recovery, but sentiment remains low despite the potential for growth in solar and wind energy[27] - Carbon capture technologies are generating renewed investor interest, although previous projects faced delays and challenges[27] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is facing challenges from battery oversupply, but Western OEMs are managing risks effectively[27] - Generative AI companies have outperformed the market by over 40%, with expectations for Edge AI to catch up in 2024[27] - Fintech consolidation is anticipated, driven by renewed interest in cryptocurrencies, which have seen over 50% returns year-to-date[27]
WOMENOMICS 25 Years And The Quiet Revolution
Goldman Sachs· 2024-07-02 16:00
Sharon Bell +44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International n We first published on women's contributions to the labour force, the opportunity for greater participation and the economic possibilities this provided 25 years ago in research led by our then head of Japan Portfolio Strategy, Kathy Matsui; Womenomics: Buy the Female Economy. Her research helped to shape the policy agenda, and we detail the policy progress in Japan in this report. n One of the areas of greatest progress is in the ...
Global Market Outlook-Adapting to shifting winds
standard chartered· 2024-06-20 16:00
Global Market Outlook Investment strategy and key themes 02 Foundation: Multi-asset income strategies 07 02 Bonds 13 FX 18 04 Performance Review Foundation+: Asset allocation summary 26 For more CIO Office insights 29 Our macroeconomic outlook and key questions 11 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------- ...
How India’s services economy became a world leader
Goldman Sachs· 2024-06-12 16:00
Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue? After topping bubble-era highs, Goldman Sachs Research says Japanese stocks are poised to rise even higher. TOPIC: REGIONAL ANALYSIS Goldman Client Login https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/how-india-services-economy-became-a-world-leader.html 5/8 2024/7/8 14:42 How India's services economy became a world leader Goldman Sachs 01 FEB 2024 Japan's Prime Minister: How Japan is promoting a 'new form of capitalism' Japanese Prime Minister Kis ...
How India’s services economy became a world leader
Goldman Sachs· 2024-06-12 16:00
ARTICLES 2024/7/12 10:58 How India's services economy became a world leader How India's services economy became a world leader Topic: REGIONAL ANALYSIS India's services exports grew from $53 billion to $338 billion between 2005 and 2023 — almost double the rate of the rest of the world — and have come to form nearly a tenth of the national GDP. Its growth has outstripped that of India's exports of material goods. In their baseline forecast, our economists expect India's services exports to touch 11% of GDP ...
Why the US dollar is likely to stay 'stronger for longer'
Goldman Sachs· 2024-06-05 16:00
2024/7/8 14:44 Why the US dollar is likely to stay 'stronger for longer' Published on 06 JUN 2024 https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/why-the-dollar-is-likely-to-stay-stronger-longer.html 1/8 Client Login Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Research Dashed lines indicate GS forecasts. G10 ex-US aggregate uses market FX GDP country weights. As of June 4, 2024. The dollar has traded in a strong and tight range through the first five months of the year. Looking forward to the next 12 months, we ...
Seeking Certainty Amid Change
Morgan Stanley· 2024-05-26 10:08
Seeking Certainty Amid Change We stay equal-weight on Chinese equities within an EM/APxJ context: YTD China has been the best performing market globally, but with ups and downs. We believe the current index level already priced in the improvement on multiple fronts, including macro stabilization, flows and positioning, and government policy pivots. However, deflationary pressure is likely to persist with policy focusing more on the manufacturing side, and housing inventory digestion facing uncertainty. Geop ...
HSBC Flash India PMI
HSBC· 2024-05-22 16:00
Embargoed until 1030 IST (0500 UTC) 23 May 2024 Key findings HSBC Flash India Composite PMI Output Index: 61.7 (Apr final: 61.5) HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI: 58.4 (Apr final: 58.8) Comment News Release PMI data signals record rise in exports and sharpest upturn in employment in nearly 18 years HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 62.4 (Apr final: 63.0) Composite PMI Output Index sa, >50 = growth since previous month 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 ...
IN GLOD WE TRUST
Incrementum AG· 2024-05-16 16:00
In Gold Report Ronald-Peter Stöferle & Mark J. Valek Introduction 4 Status Quo of the Inflation Trend 69 Exclusive Interview with Zoltan Pozsar: Adapting to the New World Order 146 Shifting Narratives, Shifting World 222 Silver's Time to Shine? 267 Life Cycle of a Mining Project 321 Exclusive Interview with Russell Napier: Save Like a Pessimist, Invest like an Optimist 363 LinkedIn | twitter | #IGWTreport Copyright: 2023 Incrementum AG. All rights reserved In Gold We Trust report 2022 | --- | --- | |------- ...