Economic Overview - The federal funds rate target range is maintained at 5.25% to 5.50%, reflecting a balance of risks to employment and inflation[3] - The unemployment rate was at a historically low level of 4.0% in May 2024, with significant employment gains across various sectors[43] - Real GDP growth moderated in the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to declines in net exports and inventory investment[58] Inflation Trends - The 12-month change in housing services prices decreased from over 8% in May 2023 to 5.5% in May 2024, indicating easing inflation[35] - Core goods prices saw a decline of 1.1% over the 12 months ending in May 2024, reflecting improvements in supply-demand imbalances[14] - The PCE price index for food prices slowed from a peak of 12.2% in August 2022 to just 1.2% in May 2024[13] Labor Market Dynamics - Payroll employment gains averaged 248,000 per month in the first five months of 2024, with over 60% of industries expanding their employment[68] - Nominal wage growth remains above levels consistent with 2% inflation, although it has slowed recently[56] - Employment disparities across demographic groups have narrowed, but significant gaps remain, particularly for prime-age women and minority groups[52] Financial Stability - The financial system is reported to be sound, with the credit-to-GDP ratio near a two-decade low, although vulnerabilities are emerging in asset markets and commercial real estate[58] - Delinquency rates for small business loans and credit cards have increased, indicating potential stress in the financial sector[58]

June 23, 2024 08:02 PM GMT Contrary to market concerns, our analysis shows still healthy growth in household financial assets, income and consumption amid de-risking efforts in China. However, some structural changes in allocation of income growth and over competition among goods and service providers could be concerns. Payment and job applications data shows consumption downgrade in first-tier cities and upgrade in rural/lower-tier cities. Job application and employment data showed a notable shift from int ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Japan and India are expected to outperform, with Japan's ROE projected to reach 12% by 2025 due to sustained reflation and rising productivity[27] - The US net liquidity reversal in 2024 may lead to underperformance in US stocks, as 2023 was characterized by higher liquidity than anticipated[27] - The M&A and IPO market is showing signs of revival, with acquirer balance sheets flush with cash, indicating improved market sentiment[27] Group 2: Economic Challenges - Weather and conflict bottlenecks are impacting trade, with 80% of trade flows by sea facing longer journeys, increasing freight rates by over 30%[27] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing a recovery, but sentiment remains low despite the potential for growth in solar and wind energy[27] - Carbon capture technologies are generating renewed investor interest, although previous projects faced delays and challenges[27] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The automotive sector is facing challenges from battery oversupply, but Western OEMs are managing risks effectively[27] - Generative AI companies have outperformed the market by over 40%, with expectations for Edge AI to catch up in 2024[27] - Fintech consolidation is anticipated, driven by renewed interest in cryptocurrencies, which have seen over 50% returns year-to-date[27]

Sharon Bell +44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International n We first published on women's contributions to the labour force, the opportunity for greater participation and the economic possibilities this provided 25 years ago in research led by our then head of Japan Portfolio Strategy, Kathy Matsui; Womenomics: Buy the Female Economy. Her research helped to shape the policy agenda, and we detail the policy progress in Japan in this report. n One of the areas of greatest progress is in the ...

Global Market Outlook Investment strategy and key themes 02 Foundation: Multi-asset income strategies 07 02 Bonds 13 FX 18 04 Performance Review Foundation+: Asset allocation summary 26 For more CIO Office insights 29 Our macroeconomic outlook and key questions 11 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Can the Nikkei's record rally in Japanese stocks continue? After topping bubble-era highs, Goldman Sachs Research says Japanese stocks are poised to rise even higher. TOPIC: REGIONAL ANALYSIS Goldman Client Login https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/how-india-services-economy-became-a-world-leader.html 5/8 2024/7/8 14:42 How India's services economy became a world leader Goldman Sachs 01 FEB 2024 Japan's Prime Minister: How Japan is promoting a 'new form of capitalism' Japanese Prime Minister Kis ...

ARTICLES 2024/7/12 10:58 How India's services economy became a world leader How India's services economy became a world leader Topic: REGIONAL ANALYSIS India's services exports grew from $53 billion to $338 billion between 2005 and 2023 — almost double the rate of the rest of the world — and have come to form nearly a tenth of the national GDP. Its growth has outstripped that of India's exports of material goods. In their baseline forecast, our economists expect India's services exports to touch 11% of GDP ...

Economic Outlook - The US dollar has maintained a strong position in the first five months of 2024, supported by a robust US economy despite high interest rates[5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the dollar will remain at similar levels against currencies like the euro and British pound over the next 12 months[50] - The US economy is projected to continue solid growth, with a two-quarter annualized real GDP growth rate of around 5%[51] Market Dynamics - Limited prospects for global macroeconomic divergence are expected to support the dollar's strength[14] - The convergence of economic activity in the US, Europe, and China has kept major currencies, including the dollar, within a tight trading range[8] - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts in the next year are not expected to significantly diminish the yield on dollar bonds[5] Risk Factors - The upcoming US election poses a risk that could lead to increased fiscal spending or higher tariffs, potentially strengthening the dollar further[22] - Divergence in real interest rates, particularly between the US and Japan, may lead to continued weakness in the yen, impacting dollar dynamics[19] - A divided government may limit the ability to pass significant fiscal measures, affecting dollar strength and global economic stability[57]

Seeking Certainty Amid Change We stay equal-weight on Chinese equities within an EM/APxJ context: YTD China has been the best performing market globally, but with ups and downs. We believe the current index level already priced in the improvement on multiple fronts, including macro stabilization, flows and positioning, and government policy pivots. However, deflationary pressure is likely to persist with policy focusing more on the manufacturing side, and housing inventory digestion facing uncertainty. Geop ...

Embargoed until 1030 IST (0500 UTC) 23 May 2024 Key findings HSBC Flash India Composite PMI Output Index: 61.7 (Apr final: 61.5) HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI: 58.4 (Apr final: 58.8) Comment News Release PMI data signals record rise in exports and sharpest upturn in employment in nearly 18 years HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 62.4 (Apr final: 63.0) Composite PMI Output Index sa, >50 = growth since previous month 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 ...