Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - Financial deepening, defined as the increase in bank credit relative to GDP, generally leads to a relative increase in carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of GDP across a sample of 125 economies from 1990 to 2019 [2][13][14] - A one-standard-deviation increase in credit-to-GDP results in an increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP by approximately 0.6 percentage points over a five-year horizon, indicating that financial deepening can diminish the decline in CO2 emissions [13][33] - The adverse effects of financial deepening on carbon emissions can be mitigated by stronger institutional environments, including robust environmental regulations and a more market-based financial system [14][40] Summary by Sections Introduction - The transition to a less carbon-intensive economy requires significant investments, with estimates suggesting that global investments in climate mitigation need to rise from $0.9 trillion in 2020 to $5 trillion annually by 2030 [6] - Financial institutions, particularly banks, play a crucial role in directing funds towards green technologies or traditional carbon-intensive investments [7] Data and Methodology - The study utilizes an unbalanced panel dataset of 125 advanced and emerging economies covering the years 1990 to 2019, focusing on CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP and financial deepening measured by credit-to-GDP [16][18] - The empirical methodology employs local projections to assess the impact of financial deepening on CO2 emissions, allowing for the examination of responses over a five-year horizon [26][27] Results - The findings indicate that financial deepening contributes to a persistent increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP, with the most significant effects observed in the first year following an increase in credit-to-GDP [33] - Conditional results reveal that countries with stronger environmental regulations and a higher rule of law index experience less increase in CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP due to financial deepening [35][37] - The analysis shows that the impact of financial deepening varies based on the initial carbon intensity of production, with different institutional factors playing a role in mitigating emissions [41][42] Robustness Checks - Various robustness checks confirm the baseline findings, including the use of alternative measures of financial deepening and focusing on credit boom episodes, which show even more pronounced adverse effects on CO2 emissions [47][49][52]

Policy Research Working Paper 10947 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Household and Firm Exposure to Heat and Floods in South Asia Patrick Behrer Jonah Rexer Siddharth Sharma Margaret Triyana South Asia Region Office of the Chief Economist October 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10947 Abstract Climate change is increasing household exposure to extreme heat, floods and other natural disasters. This paper examines the differe ...

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10945 Identifying Growth Accelerations Bram Gootjes Jakob de Haan Kersten Stamm Shu Yu Public Disclosure Authorized Development Economics Prospects Group October 2024 Policy Research Working Paper 10945 Abstract This paper introduces a new method to identify output growth accelerations that integrates elements of both the "criteria-based" and "break-testing" approaches, which are prevalent in ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - The implementation of a carbon tax in the Dominican Republic is expected to impact aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) through resource allocation, with varying effects depending on existing market distortions among firms [4][9][10]. - A carbon tax is more effective when applied to fuels rather than electricity, leading to productivity gains for most sectors by reallocating resources from low-productivity to high-productivity firms [4][15]. - The study emphasizes the importance of considering existing input market distortions when evaluating the impact of environmental taxes [4][10]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The Dominican Republic aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 27% by 2030, and the introduction of a carbon tax is considered a potential regulatory intervention to incentivize firms to reduce fossil fuel consumption [8][9]. Theoretical Framework - The report develops a model to analyze how a carbon tax affects firms' energy input consumption and overall productivity, highlighting the heterogeneous impact based on firms' existing market distortions [12][24]. Empirical Analysis - Utilizing detailed firm-level data from 2009 to 2018, the analysis indicates that a carbon tax could generate approximately $920 million in revenue if set at $110 per ton of CO2, representing about 10% of total taxes collected in 2018 [13][32]. - The sectors most affected by the carbon tax are identified as transport, cement, and hospitality, which have significant carbon emissions footprints [13][37]. Results and Discussion - The findings suggest that the introduction of a carbon tax could shift the burden of market distortions from high productivity firms to low productivity ones, potentially increasing aggregate TFP for most sectors [4][15]. - The report concludes that the effectiveness of a carbon tax is contingent upon the existing distortions in energy consumption and the productivity levels of firms within the Dominican Republic [4][10].

v Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized BUSINESS PLAN Public Disclosure Authorized ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM BUSINESS PLAN Public Disclosure Authorized FY2025–2030 THE WORLD BANK BUSINESS PLAN ENERGY SECTOR MANAGEMENT ASSISTANCE PROGRAM BUSINESS PLAN FY2025–2030 ABOUT ESMAP The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is a partnership between the World Bank and over 20 partners to help low- and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through s ...

Public Disclosure Authorized ECONOMIC UPDATE 2024 NIGER Special chapter Investing in education for inclusive growth Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized PUBLIC DISCLOSURE AUTHORIZED © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, ...

Industry Overview - Argentina has exhibited exceptionally high fiscal procyclicality and GDP volatility, ranking among the most volatile economies globally, with economic recessions occurring approximately 33% of the time over the past seven decades [9] - The country's fiscal policy has historically been highly procyclical, characterized by persistent fiscal deficits that exacerbate economic fluctuations and hinder stable growth, ranking among the top four nations in terms of public spending and GDP cyclicality correlation over the past 22 years [9] - Public spending in Argentina rose significantly from 25% of GDP in 2005 to 41% of GDP in 2016, primarily driven by recurrent expenditures, outpacing revenue and leading to fiscal imbalances, liquidity constraints, and debt restructuring [9] Fiscal Policy Analysis - Argentina's fiscal procyclicality stems primarily from expenditure policies, particularly those related to pensions and public wages, with both influenced by the "price" effect and the "quantity" effect, especially for the public wage bill [2][13] - The cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) in Argentina has significantly declined, with discretionary policies being more pronounced during economic booms, and the country's heavy reliance on agricultural commodities exacerbates procyclicality [2][17] - Argentina's unconventional taxes, such as export duties and financial transaction taxes, exhibit a negative correlation with the economic cycle, contributing to fiscal procyclicality [16][80] Public Spending Breakdown - Argentina's public wage bill has displayed strong procyclicality, driven by both "price" and "quantity" effects, with the number of public servants and their average wage showing pronounced procyclical behavior at both national and subnational levels [15][46] - Pension spending in Argentina is highly procyclical, influenced by erratic indexation mechanisms and the "price" effect, with the real value of benefits strongly linked to the economic cycle [14][64] - Public investment and consumption in Argentina have exhibited strong procyclical tendencies, with correlations of 0.59 and 0.61, respectively, over the past two decades [41] Tax Policy Analysis - Argentina's traditional tax sources, such as CIT, PIT, and VAT, exhibit a relatively acyclical policy stance, with correlations between changes in tax rates and real GDP being positive but not statistically significant [76] - Unconventional taxes, including export duties and financial transaction taxes, contribute significantly to Argentina's tax revenue, with export duties showing a weak but negative correlation with the economic cycle, indicating procyclical behavior [80] - The tax structure in Argentina deviates from international standards, with unconventional taxes accounting for nearly one-third of total tax revenue, limiting the effectiveness of traditional tax rate cyclicality analysis [72] Structural Fiscal Balance - The structural budget balance (CAPB) in Argentina has deteriorated significantly over the past decades, even prior to the conclusion of the commodities super-cycle, indicating the presence of procyclical discretionary policies [17] - During the commodities super-cycle, cyclical revenues from commodities-related export duties contributed nearly 1.1% of GDP in additional receipts, with a hypothetical stabilization fund potentially generating revenue equivalent to 2% of GDP between 2006 and 2008 [102] - Argentina's fiscal policy has exhibited a procyclical nature, failing to effectively stabilize the economy, with expansionary fiscal policies during economic upswings hindering improvements in savings and raising sustainability concerns [111]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10941 Digitalization and Inclusive Growth A Review of the Evidence Gaurav Nayyar Regina Pleninger Dana Vorisek Shu Yu Prosperity Practice Group Office of the Chief Economist October 2024 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10941 Abstract ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report identifies a critical tax-to-GDP ratio threshold of around 12.5% for future economic growth acceleration, with a slightly higher threshold of 13% for inclusive growth [9] - Countries transitioning from low-income to middle-income status typically achieve an average tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% in the decade prior to the shift [10] Core Findings - A tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% is crucial for countries transitioning from low- to middle-income status, with significant benefits observed when tax collection increases from 7% to 15% of GDP [10][11] - Increasing tax revenue from 7% to 15% of GDP is associated with an additional 10 percentage points of cumulative growth over the next ten years and a reduction in the prosperity gap by about half [11][35] Mechanisms of Tax Impact on Growth - Higher tax revenues lead to increased investment in health and education, enhancing productivity and reducing economic volatility [10][37] - A tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% is associated with lower government spending volatility and reduced real GDP growth volatility, contributing to economic stability [49][50] Transitioning to Higher Income Status - Countries transitioning from low-income to lower-middle-income status achieve a critical tax-to-GDP ratio of 15%, reflecting a 3-4 percentage point increase over the decade before transitioning [56] - The average tax-to-GDP ratio increases to 23.4% and 25% when transitioning from lower-middle-income to upper-middle-income and from upper-middle-income to high-income groups, respectively [56]

Industry Overview - The asset management and financial sponsors sector operates in a dynamic and changing market environment, shaped by major global financial trends such as digitalization, sustainable finance, and increasing regulatory scrutiny [2] - The sector includes a diverse range of entities, from wholesale and retail fund managers to private equity and credit firms, each affected differently by market challenges [2] - The asset management industry manages approximately USD 100 trillion in assets but faces pressure from cost and fee income challenges as investors demand more value for money [3] - Private equity operates in a higher cost of capital environment compared to the last decade, with deal flow improving due to slowing inflation and interest rate cuts [4] - Private credit has grown exponentially to USD 1.5 trillion, serving smaller and mid-size corporates as an alternative to leveraged finance and public bonds [4] Technology and Innovation - The sector is increasingly leveraging technology, with artificial intelligence (AI) moving from back-office functions to strategic uses such as due diligence, research, and reporting [5] - Generative AI has the potential to improve investment decision-making and enhance financial sponsors' market performance [5] - Cloud technology poses systemic risks, with major providers potentially becoming single points of failure [15] - Cybersecurity risks are rising, with the financial sector experiencing over 20,000 cyberattacks resulting in USD 12 billion in losses over 20 years [17] - Digital transformation requires businesses to re-skill existing employees and recruit new talent, particularly in AI and IT [18] Sustainability and ESG - Sustainability goals and associated reporting represent both opportunities and risks for the sector, with thematic investing and impact funds gaining importance [6] - Voluntary sustainability standards are becoming regulatory requirements, creating potential barriers to cross-border finance [6] - Greenwashing, misstatements, and mislabeling pose significant risks, with regulatory action increasing in jurisdictions like the US and Australia [23] - ESG-related disclosures are becoming the norm, with challenges in implementation due to data availability and regulatory interpretation [21] - ESG ratings are still open to interpretation, with some jurisdictions introducing regulations to address these issues [22] Specialized Finance - Private credit has grown to USD 1.5 trillion, competing with banks to fund corporate acquisitions and diversifying into assets like commercial real estate [26] - GP-led liquidity solutions are increasingly popular, providing liquidity to sponsors and investors but requiring careful management of conflicts of interest [27] - Adaptation finance faces challenges due to perceived low returns and a lack of standardized market language and classification frameworks [28] - The private funds sector has developed tools to access capital during the fund lifecycle, with sponsors needing to manage conflicts and provide sufficient disclosures [27] Workforce and Inclusion - Inclusion, diversity, and equity (ID&E) are key social factors within ESG, with research showing that greater diversity improves risk management culture [30] - Employers face challenges in implementing ID&E initiatives, particularly in the US, where recent Supreme Court decisions have impacted race-conscious programs [30] - The collection and reporting of diversity data are increasingly mandated, but compliance with local data privacy laws is essential [32] - Executive exits can lead to significant knowledge loss, requiring robust succession planning and enforceable non-compete clauses [33] Mergers and Acquisitions - Private equity M&A activity is improving in 2024 due to slowing inflation and interest rate cuts, with carve-out transactions becoming more popular [35] - Regulatory scrutiny in M&A has increased, with antitrust authorities focusing on new threats to competition and foreign investment control expanding [36] - Due diligence in private equity M&A involves extensive analysis of target companies, particularly in labor law and regulatory obligations [37] - Post-acquisition integration requires careful planning, with HR considerations, tax issues, and regulatory approvals being critical factors [38] Litigation and Enforcement - Climate-related claims are a predominant concern for financial sponsors, with NGOs and claimant law firms leveraging media to exert reputational pressure [40] - Transactional disputes can arise from financing and acquisition activities, with increased risk in situations of distress or competitive lending [42] - Antitrust action is a growing risk, particularly with private equity's use of "roll-up" strategies that consolidate industry sectors [43] Taxation - The global tax landscape is shifting, with increased uncertainty and risks associated with contentious tax matters, including the OECD's Two-Pillar Solution [46] - International tax and transfer pricing structures face heightened scrutiny, with tax authorities demanding more data to substantiate calculations [47] - Tax transparency is becoming a key part of the sustainability agenda, with legislative regimes like the EU Directive on public country-by-country reporting [48] - Carried interest taxation is under scrutiny in the UK, with potential implications for private equity funds and key individuals [49]