ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Cruise Lines Rehash - August 14, 2024 Equities Americas Leisure Goods & Services Robin M. Farley Analyst robin.farley@ubs.com +1-212-713 2060 Arpine Kocharyan Analyst arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com +1-212-713 2086 Alex Kivali Associate Analyst alex.kivali@ubs.com +1-212-713 3945 Alexia Tsimikas Associate Analyst alexia.tsimikas@ubs.com +1-212-713 2183 See here and here for past rehashes. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION A ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Dayforce Inc. 2024 Boost amid $500m New Buyback = Buy Non-deal road show offers a glimpse at a Special Software Story We recently hosted Dayforce CEO David Ossip, CFO Jeremy Johnson as well as multiple members from investor relations. We continue to have substantial confidence in our thesis as we believe DAY stock is poised to outperform on cloud revenue remix + improving free cash flow conversion—we believe recent underperformance is mostly due to risk-off se ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Copa and a "Neutral" rating for Azul, with price targets unchanged at $160/ADR and R$10/share respectively [4][5]. Core Insights - LATAM is negotiating to acquire up to 30 E2 jets from Embraer, expecting over 10% growth in the next three years [3]. - Tupy is expanding its contracts for heavy and light vehicles, anticipating an additional revenue of R$200 million per year starting in 2025 [3]. - Brazilian grain production is projected to decline to 298.6 million tons for the 2023/24 harvest, a decrease of 6.6% compared to the previous cycle [6][7]. Summary by Sections Copa Holdings - Copa's financial estimates have been adjusted downwards by 2% for 2024 due to weaker yields and lower capacity guidance, leading to a revised EPS of $14.9 [4]. - The company is trading at a P/E of 5x, significantly below its historical average of 11x, indicating potential undervaluation [4]. Azul - Azul's financial outlook remains challenging, with profitability and top-line estimates largely unchanged as the stock price reflects existing uncertainties [5]. - The company generated R$100 million in cash flow during the last quarter, exceeding previous estimates [5]. Tupy - Tupy has secured new contracts for manufacturing components for heavy trucks and light commercial vehicles, which will enhance its revenue streams [3]. - The new contracts are expected to contribute approximately 1.6% to Tupy's estimated revenue for 2025 [3]. Brazilian Grain Production - The National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts a total grain production of 298.6 million tons for Brazil, with specific declines noted in corn production [6][7]. - Soybean production estimates remain unchanged, while corn production is expected to drop by 12.3% compared to the previous cycle [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fiverr International Ltd is Neutral with a 12-month price target of $27.00 [5][21]. Core Insights - Monthly unique visitors to Fiverr.com decreased by 17% year-over-year in July, worsening from a 15% decline in June, indicating a trend of declining web traffic [2][3]. - The guidance for Q3 revenue suggests a continued slowdown, with a projected GMV growth of -4% year-over-year, slightly worse than the -3% in Q2 [3][4]. - The price target of $27 is based on a 9X NTM EV/EBITDA multiple applied to an adjusted EBITDA estimate of $89 million for the twelve months ending June 2026 [4][11]. Summary by Sections Web Traffic Data - July saw a 17% year-over-year decline in unique visitors to Fiverr.com, compared to a 15% decline in June and a 10% decline in May [3]. - The management's Q3 revenue guidance reflects expectations of continued slower trends, with consensus modeling a GMV decline of -4% year-over-year [3]. Valuation - The price target of $27 is derived from a 9X NTM EV/EBITDA multiple, which is below Fiverr's one-year forward multiple of 11X due to anticipated GMV volatility [4][11]. - The forecasted revenue for Fiverr is expected to grow from $361 million in 2023 to $385 million in 2024, with net earnings projected to increase from $80 million to $98 million in the same period [6]. Company Overview - Fiverr is a leading freelancing platform that served 4.1 million active buyers in 2023, generating a GMV of $1.1 billion with an average spend of $278 per buyer [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ibotta Inc with a 12-month price target of US$90, down from a previous target of US$129 [1]. Core Insights - The partnership with Instacart is expected to provide approximately 6% upside to FY25 revenue estimates, potentially catalyzing additional third-party partnerships [1]. - Despite a reduction in FY24 revenue and EBITDA estimates by 3% and 1% respectively, FY25 estimates remain unchanged [1]. - The report highlights that the third-party redemption business is still in its early stages, indicating potential for future growth [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - 12-month rating: Buy [1] - Price target: US$90 (previously US$129) [1] Financial Estimates - FY24 revenue and EBITDA estimates trimmed by 3% and 1% respectively, while FY25 estimates remain unchanged [1]. - Price on August 14, 2024: US$47.83 [1]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Instacart holds an 18% market share in e-commerce grocery, with limited overlap with existing partners [1]. - The report notes a significant year-over-year growth in merchandise, which is expected to drive revenue per redemption [1]. - The second quarter saw a net addition of 1.3 million third-party redeemers, exceeding expectations [1]. Valuation - The price target reflects an 18x FY25 EBITDA multiple, reduced from a previous 27x due to increased volatility in results [4]. - The current enterprise value is estimated at US$2,126 million, with a market cap of US$2,206 million [6]. Performance Indicators - Total revenue for FY24 is projected at US$375 million, with a growth rate of 25% expected for FY25 [1]. - The report indicates a gross margin improvement, with expectations of reaching 36% by FY25 [6].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Equities Americas Healthcare Kevin Caliendo Analyst kevin.caliendo@ubs.com +1-212-713 3630 AJ Rice Analyst aj.rice@ubs.com. +1-212-713 4299 Christopher Mercado, CFA Associate Analyst christopher.mercado@ubs.com +1-212-713 1430 Andrea Alfonso Analyst andrea.alfonso@ubs.com +1-212-713 1342 Dylan Finley Associate Analyst dylan.finley@ubs.com +1-212-713-4880 US Healthcare A Look at Today's Stock Movers, News & Key Data What We Thought Was Interesting Today Today w ...

Industry Overview - Auto insurance CPI increased by 18.6% year-over-year (y/y) and 0.9% sequentially in July 2024 [1][3] - Used car prices declined by 10.9% y/y in July 2024, accelerating from -10.1% in June and -9.3% in May [4] - Auto repair cost inflation moderated to +3.4% y/y in July from +6.7% in June and +9.5% in May [4] - Medical care services inflation remained elevated at +3.3% y/y in July, consistent with June and May levels [4] Digital Advertising Trends - Digital ad spend has been trending higher, with increases observed at ALL, PGR, State Farm, and USAA, while GEICO and ROOT saw declines on a month-over-month (m/m) basis [4][17] - GEICO's digital ad spend declined y/y in June but remains up y/y for Q2 2024 [4] - PGR is increasing ad spend to drive new business, particularly in the direct distribution personal auto insurance market where GEICO is its biggest competitor [4][17] Company Performance and Outlook - Personal auto insurance margins are expected to improve throughout 2024 due to rate increases and stable to moderating loss cost inflation trends [3] - ALL and KMPR are top picks in personal lines, with expectations of improving margins and upward estimate revisions [7] - PGR is expected to gain market share in the near term by loosening underwriting restrictions faster than competitors, though growth may slow in H2 2024 due to increased competitive pressures [7] Historical Data and Trends - The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows used car prices down 4.8% y/y in July 2024, decelerating from -8.8% in June and -12.1% in May [10] - From 2008-2019, the Manheim Index grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +2.5% [10] - Hospital services inflation was +6.1% y/y in July, down from +6.9% in June and +7.2% in May [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry Core Insights - The U.S. semiconductor industry is a critical driver of economic strength, national security, and technology leadership, accounting for nearly half of the global market share [2][15] - The industry has shown steady growth, with worldwide semiconductor sales projected to reach $588.4 billion in 2024 and $654.7 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.0% from $139.0 billion in 2001 to $526.9 billion in 2023 [11][12] Section Summaries Section 1: Industry Overview - The U.S. semiconductor industry holds a 50.2% global market share, having regained its leadership position in the late 1990s after losing ground in the 1980s [15] - U.S.-based semiconductor company sales grew from $71.1 billion in 2001 to $264.6 billion in 2023, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 6.0% [19] - Semiconductors are one of America's top exports, valued at $52.7 billion in 2023, making it the sixth-highest among U.S. exports [25] Section 2: Global Market - Global semiconductor sales reached $526.9 billion in 2023, driven primarily by consumer products such as laptops and smartphones [30] - The largest regional market for semiconductors is Asia Pacific, with China accounting for 53% of that market and 29% of the total global market [36] Section 3: Capital and R&D Investment - Total R&D and capital expenditures by U.S. semiconductor firms reached $107.5 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.9% from 2001 to 2023 [41] - U.S. semiconductor industry R&D expenditures totaled $59.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a consistent commitment to R&D despite market fluctuations [50] - Investment per employee in capital expenditures and R&D reached $223,500 in 2023, indicating a high level of capital intensity in the industry [47] Section 4: U.S. Jobs - The U.S. semiconductor industry accounts for approximately 338,000 direct jobs and supports over 1.9 million additional jobs in the economy [68] Section 5: U.S. Productivity - U.S.-based semiconductor firms have seen labor productivity more than double since 2001, with an average sales revenue per employee exceeding $632,000 in 2023 [74]

Aberdeen Office Market Q2 2024 Updated Quarterly, our dashboards provide a concise synopsis of activity in the UK regional office markets | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------|------------- ...

Global Respiratory Virus Activity Weekly Update N° 488 Summarizing data through Week 31, ending 04 August 2024 Summary Influenza In the Northern hemisphere, activity in temperate countries remained at interepidemic levels. Activity was elevated in a few countries in Central America and the Caribbean, Middle Africa, Western Africa, Southern Asia and South East Asia. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated except in Western Asia, South East Asia and Southern Asia where A(HIN1)pdm09 viruses predominated. Activi ...