ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Wilmar International Cautiously optimistic of a better 2H Cautiously optimistic tone from the briefing Management's tone from the analyst briefing this morning appeared to be cautiously optimistic. Poor milling margins and weaker contribution from JV/associates (-58% YoY) were identified as key weaknesses in 1H's performance, to which Wilmar expects to improve going forward given lower raw material prices, as well as absence of certain one-off co ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Thai Oil Q224 meeting feedback and upcoming UBShosted expert call Thai Oil (TOP) hosted its Q224 analyst meeting on 14 August. Overall, there were no material new developments to alter our views in the near term. Please see some of key highlights below. Also, UBS is hosting an Expert Call: Refining margin outlook and clean fuel project's (CFP) start-up discussion on 22 August at 3pm Bangkok time. Join our discussion for an expert view from Kpler, one of the ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Medtronic PLC Diabetes Turnaround Sustainable, Clearing Path to MSD Sales Growth; U/G to Neutral CGM Partnership Potentially Transformative for MDT Diabetes We are upgrading MDT to Neutral from Sell as we now have higher conviction that the recent Diabetes turnaround is sustainable. With Diabetes representing just under 10% of MDT's sales but also one of MDT's higher growth end markets, this business is critical to MDT's top-line growth trajectory. With thi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Amazon (AMZN) with a price target of $220, a Buy rating on Meta (META) with a price target of $635, and a Neutral rating on Alphabet (GOOGL) with a price target of $204 [3][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding the modeling of depreciation expenses in relation to rising capital expenditures for major internet companies, suggesting that depreciation should increase at a faster rate than revenue due to significant capital investments [5][6]. - It is anticipated that quarterly earnings reports over the next 6-12 months will prompt analysts to adjust their depreciation expense forecasts, particularly for Meta, which is expected to provide clearer guidance in its upcoming earnings report [2][5]. - The potential underestimation of depreciation expenses could lead to significant impacts on earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026, with Meta facing the largest potential delta [1][12]. Summary by Company Amazon (AMZN) - Capital expenditures for Amazon are projected to rise from $35 billion in 2024 to approximately $51 billion in 2025, leading to a 10% and 15% increase in depreciation expenses for 2025 and 2026 respectively [7]. - The potential delta in depreciation expenses could result in an overstatement of operating income by 4% and 6% for 2025 and 2026 [7][12]. Alphabet (GOOGL) - Alphabet's capital expenditures are expected to increase by 12.7% in 2025 and 31.7% in 2026, with corresponding increases in depreciation expenses of 10.8% and 13.8% [8][10]. - If depreciation forecasts were tied to revenue, the potential underestimation could lead to overstated EPS by 1% for both 2025 and 2026 [10]. Meta (META) - Meta's capital expenditures are projected to increase by 21.5% in 2025 and 1% in 2026, resulting in a significant increase in depreciation expenses of 11% and 22% [12]. - The potential underestimation of depreciation could lead to an overstatement of EPS by 7% and 14% for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with the company expected to provide clearer guidance in its 4Q24 earnings report [12][11].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab North American Oil & Gas The Gas Digest - Post-2Q Gas Hedging Review Equities Americas Energy Gas Hedges Falling In 2025 With Rising Strip Following 2Q24 earnings season, we reviewed the latest gas hedge disclosures across our coverage group, focusing on the gas-focused E&Ps. On average, the gas-focused E&Ps have hedged 47%/31% of FY24/25 gas volumes, with the decline in 2025 reflecting operators leaving more exposure to an expected rising price environment ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Acumen Pharmaceuticals Inc with a 12-month price target (PT) lowered to $6 from $14 [4][8]. Core Insights - The investment thesis has been updated following the 2Q24 earnings report, with a focus on the execution of Phase 2 (P2) trials for sabirnetug (ACU193) as a key driver for stock performance [2][6]. - The overall sentiment in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) market remains low, influenced by regulatory setbacks and slow commercial uptake of competing products [3][9]. - Despite the challenges, the report highlights that Acumen Pharmaceuticals has sufficient cash to fund operations into the first half of 2027, with P2 trial enrollment exceeding expectations [6][7]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - 12-month rating: Buy - 12-month price target: $6.00 (previously $14.00) [4]. Financial Performance - Current stock price as of August 14, 2024: $2.46 - Market capitalization: $0.14 billion - Expected revenues for 12/24E: $21 million [5]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The AD market is sizable but has seen a decline in clinical trials and investigational drugs in 2024 compared to 2023 [3]. - Regulatory risks have increased following the EMA refusal of Leqembi, impacting overall market sentiment [3][9]. Company-Specific Developments - Acumen Pharmaceuticals reported a cash position of $281.4 million, sufficient to support ongoing trials [6]. - Management noted that the P2 ALTITUDE-AD study is progressing faster than expected, with positive feedback on the trial design [6][7]. Valuation Adjustments - Peak sales estimates for sabirnetug have been lowered from $6.8 billion to $2.4 billion due to anticipated lower commercial uptake [9][10]. - The probability of success (PoS) for sabirnetug has been increased from 15% to 20% based on evolving clinical data [9][10].

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Payments, Processors, & FinTech NFC Secure Element within their own apps Apple announces broader developer access to Equities Americas Diversified Technology Services Timothy E. Chiodo, CFA Analyst timothy.chiodo@ubs.com +1-415-352 4500 Nik Cremo Analyst nik.cremo@ubs.com +1-415-352 6025 Chris Zhang, CFA Analyst chris.zhang@ubs.com +1-212-713 4911 Dylan Wright Analyst dylan.wright@ubs.com +1-212-713 3269 Jing Zhang Associate Analyst jing.zhang1@u ...

First Read US Weekly RevPAR Update Slightly Better RevPAR This Week Driven by Business Travel Weekly RevPAR up +2% YOY US Weekly RevPAR was up +2% YOY for August 4 - August 10 week, above last week's up +1%, with ADR up +140bps and occupancy up +40bps. ADR up +140bps was above last week's +60bps. Occupancy of up +40bps was slightly below last week's +50bps. RevPAR was up +11% vs. '19 per our calculations, broadly in line with last week's +11.5%. We estimate that ADR was up +20% vs. '19 (last week up +20%) a ...

ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Cruise Lines Rehash - August 14, 2024 Equities Americas Leisure Goods & Services Robin M. Farley Analyst robin.farley@ubs.com +1-212-713 2060 Arpine Kocharyan Analyst arpine.kocharyan@ubs.com +1-212-713 2086 Alex Kivali Associate Analyst alex.kivali@ubs.com +1-212-713 3945 Alexia Tsimikas Associate Analyst alexia.tsimikas@ubs.com +1-212-713 2183 See here and here for past rehashes. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION A ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 14 August 2024 Dayforce Inc. 2024 Boost amid $500m New Buyback = Buy Non-deal road show offers a glimpse at a Special Software Story We recently hosted Dayforce CEO David Ossip, CFO Jeremy Johnson as well as multiple members from investor relations. We continue to have substantial confidence in our thesis as we believe DAY stock is poised to outperform on cloud revenue remix + improving free cash flow conversion—we believe recent underperformance is mostly due to risk-off se ...